A few trade proposals for consideration

[AlwaysinModeration]

Using the baseballtradevalues.com page as a jumping off point, here are a few trade proposals to see what reaction people might have.  Rather than go after the top of the market for Montas (28.1) or Mahle (22.9), working out one, or preferably two of these trades for slightly lower targets could upgrade the rotation, bullpen, and possibly outfield depth.

 

Trade proposal #1, w/ Angels

Twins receive:  Noah Syndergaard (4.7), Archie Bradley (-1.1)

Angels receive: Steven Hajjar (2.4), Edouard Julien (1.7), and Aaron Sabato (1.5)

 

Trade proposal #2, w/ Orioles

Twins receive Jorge López (5.6), Trey Mancini (1.9) 

Orioles receive Noah Miller (4.8), Marco Raya (3.9).

Note Felix Bautista is 9.6; upgrading Miller to Wallner (7.7) could net Bautista.

 

Trade proposal #3, w/ Royals

Twins receive Josh Staumont (12.7), Whit Merrifield (1.0)  

Royals receive Matt Wallner (7.7), Keoni Cavaco (2.4), Blaine Enlow (2.2)

Note Scott Barlow 13.5. 

 

Trade proposal #4, w/ Giants

Twins receive Carlos Rodon (13.0)

Giants receive Spencer Steer (14.0), David Festa (1.9)

Updated to add one more…

Trade proposal #5, w/ Rockies

Twins receive German Marquez (12.2), Tyler Kinley (1.1)

Rockies receive Austin Martin (11.0), Cade Povich (1.6), Jermaine Palacios (0.5)

Could folks see any of these trades working?

[TopGunn#22]

Nice job "moderation!!"  I haven't seen enough "good things" from Thor to warrant that trade.  But the trade with the Orioles is a winner.  I'm not sure of the contract status of Merrifield but he would be a great addition to the top of our order and adding Staumont to the pen would also be helpful.

I would also make the trade you proposed for Rodon.  Great addition to the top of our rotation.

The Marquez trade is interesting if moving from Coors field could actually unlock his potential.  He's been pretty so/so these last two years, but I'd take a chance there too.

[AlwaysinModeration]

5 hours ago, Celtmeister said:

Yeah I could see any of those working. What do you think about acquiring Smyly?

Well, continuing to use the baseballtradevalues site as the basis, I view trading for Smyly to be worth about….0.1.  I checked your write-up, and I think Canterino or Steer would be a major overpay for him.

[AlwaysinModeration]

But trading Pagan for Smyly would be a win for the Twins…

[ashbury]

47 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

But trading Pagan for Smyly would be a win for the Twins…

Yeah, I bet that is exactly what the Cubbies are looking for in return.

[Mike Sixel]

Rockies aren't trading anyone. they just re-upped their 37 year old closer....

All those seem fair. Not sure which I'd do or not for sure....

[ashbury]

55 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

But trading Pagan for Smyly would be a win for the Twins…

But more seriously, I'd offer Andrew Bechtold, and maybe let myself get talked into 2020-draft mistakes Soularie or Sabato if I don't have a better use for those two in trade.  Smyly is just not worth much to a contending team, with or without the expiring contract.

[nicksaviking]

Those all seem fairly reasonable. My only comments, and it has more to do with the trade simulator values, is that taking on the rest of Syndergaard's salary itself is going to really impact the value based on the franchise doing business. If a big pockets club isn't willing to eat all of the salary, a team like the Twins likely wouldn't have to part with much should the Angels be inclined to move him.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Whit Merrifield is kind of a KC staple. He means more to them than to the franchise who'd be getting him.

[LA Vikes Fan]

All very interesting. I particularly like proposal #2 and #4. Both Lopez from the Orioles and Rondon from the Giants would be great additions and the price isn't excessive. Proposal #1 would be okay for this year but I sense were giving away more than we're getting back and proposal #3 would be great except I don't think the Royals will trade with us. I can't say I know enough about German Marquez to really evaluate #5 but it might be worth a shot if we can't do anything else.

The sad thing about this is we simply don't have the high end prospects to make a move for anybody better unless we trade Jose Miranda and I am totally against that. I think he is the long term #4 or #5 hitter on this team who is cost controlled for the next 6 years and you just don't trade that for even 1.5 years of a starting pitcher.  All of our high-end prospects in the minors or hurt, particularly the pitchers, and frankly not that highly rated. The prospects that have "graduated" to the Twins are either in my mind untouchable (Miranda) or are in various injury stages. At this point, Kirilloff has little to no trade value since an acquiring team has no idea what they're getting with his recurring wrist issues. Larnach has value going forward but it's hard to trade a guy when he can't help you until September at the earliest and more likely next year. Not only that, we need him if Kirilloff doesn't work out. Lewis is untouchable and not available till next July. Steer and Wallner are nice prospects but aren't good enough to move the needle for a big time pitcher. Bottom line, we are out on Frankie Montas and probably out on Tyler Mahle because we simply don't hand the big time prospects to trade unless we trade Miranda and I am totally against that just to improve this year's team.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Whit Merrifield is kind of a KC staple. He means more to them than to the franchise who'd be getting him.

Agreed that Merrifield - and Mancini - are Royal and Orioles staples that wouldn’t be likely be traded.  On the flip side, they are exactly the sort of hitters that could be spark plugs for a team come playoff time, and maybe KC and Baltimore would trade them in order to give them a chance at playing some postseason baseball.  (Think Rosario with the Braves last year?)

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Agreed that Merrifield - and Mancini - are Royal and Orioles staples that wouldn’t be likely be traded.  On the flip side, they are exactly the sort of hitters that could be spark plugs for a team come playoff time, and maybe KC and Baltimore would trade them in order to give them a chance at playing some postseason baseball.  (Think Rosario with the Braves last year?)

Rosario was a salary dump last year, not some generous move by Cleveland. He also was a rental player they'd just signed the offseason before. Not a great comp there. I'd be a little surprised to see Baltimore trade Mancini when they're actually playing well after keeping him when his value was higher and they were terrible. Same with Merrifield in the sense that he was worth significantly more the last couple years and they refused to trade him then. Would be absolutely shocked to see either of those guys moved. Would be very happy with Whit in a Twins jersey, though.

[LA Vikes Fan]

If yo don't mind me tagging along, here are two trade proposals to add (I'll useletters instead of numbers) - 

 Proposal A - Trade with Padres

Twins receive Blake Snell (3.3) or Mike Clevinger (0), Padres receive Keoni Caveco ( 2.4) and David Festa (1.9)

Slight overpay by the Twins but I think you have to overpay to get a decent starter. Also gives the Padres a couple more prospects they can include package for Juan Soto. 

Proposal B - Trade With Cubs

Twins receive David Robertson (2.5) and Drew Smyly (.2), Cubs receive Koeni Cavaco (2.4) and Drew Strotman (1.5).

Also an overpay but the Twins will have to overpay for Robertson. Would love to get Stroman but a -17.4 value on BTV (assumedly due to his contract), it's hard to value him.  

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Rosario was a salary dump last year, not some generous move by Cleveland. He also was a rental player they'd just signed the offseason before. Not a great comp there. I'd be a little surprised to see Baltimore trade Mancini when they're actually playing well after keeping him when his value was higher and they were terrible. Same with Merrifield in the sense that he was worth significantly more the last couple years and they refused to trade him then. Would be absolutely shocked to see either of those guys moved. Would be very happy with Whit in a Twins jersey, though.

I wasn’t thinking a comp in terms of situation.  I was thinking a comp in terms of a high contact guy who can be an impact player in the postseason.  Not surprised at all that Rosario excelled in the playoffs last year.

[AlwaysinModeration]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

If yo don't mind me tagging along, here are two trade proposals to add (I'll useletters instead of numbers) - 

 Proposal A - Trade with Padres

Twins receive Blake Snell (3.3), Padres receive Keoni Caveco ( 2.4) and David Festa (1.9)

Slight overpay by the Twins but I think you have to overpaid to get decent starter. Also gives the Hundreds a couple more prospects they can include package for Juan Soto. 

Proposal B - Trade With Cubs

Twins receive David Robertson (2.5) and Drew Smyly (.2), Cubs receive Koeni Cavaco (2.4) and Drew Strotman (1.5).

Also an overpay but the Twins will have to overpay for Robertson. Would love to get Stroman but a -17.4 value on BTV (assumedly due to his contract), it's hard to value him.  

 

Would love them to trade for Robertson, and see Cavaco / Strotman as fair value.  Not sure how much I’d value Smyly, but another lefty couldn’t hurt.

As for Snell, I’d be game—but would the Twins trade for two of the Padres SP’s in the same season?

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

If yo don't mind me tagging along, here are two trade proposals to add (I'll useletters instead of numbers) - 

 Proposal A - Trade with Padres

Twins receive Blake Snell (3.3) or Mike Clevinger (0), Padres receive Keoni Caveco ( 2.4) and David Festa (1.9)

Slight overpay by the Twins but I think you have to overpay to get a decent starter. Also gives the Padres a couple more prospects they can include package for Juan Soto. 

Proposal B - Trade With Cubs

Twins receive David Robertson (2.5) and Drew Smyly (.2), Cubs receive Koeni Cavaco (2.4) and Drew Strotman (1.5).

Also an overpay but the Twins will have to overpay for Robertson. Would love to get Stroman but a -17.4 value on BTV (assumedly due to his contract), it's hard to value him.  

 

I think Snell's salary is going to be prohibitive for many clubs. I'd be fine with that proposal, but  I don't think many teams will overpay for him and take on the salary. 

While the Robertson trade might be a fair proposal, he seems to be viewed as the best relief option on the market so I'd think he's going to bring back much, much more than two non-prospects.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think you're probably right on Snell which is why I think we have a chance to get him. You're also probably right on Robertson. How about Festa and Cavaco instead of Strotman and Cavaco?

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I wasn’t thinking a comp in terms of situation.  I was thinking a comp in terms of a high contact guy who can be an impact player in the postseason.  Not surprised at all that Rosario excelled in the playoffs last year.

Ah, I got ya. That makes much more sense then ?

[AlwaysinModeration]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

While the Robertson trade might be a fair proposal, he seems to be viewed as the best relief option on the market so I'd think he's going to bring back much, much more than two non-prospects.

Very good point on Robertson being the top of the reliever market, which may be why I don’t include him in my initial proposals (or Montas or Mahle).

Like LAVikesFan, I’d be loathe to see the Twins part with high end options like Miranda or Lewis today or tomorrow.

[clone52]

I'm curious as to the trade values of the trades so far.  Are people overpaying per the values you were using?

 

I'd do any of those trades except #3.

 

I kinda wonder if the Twins go into a mini-selloff mode if they think they are out of it.  I doubt they pull off a Correa blockbuster at a risk of alienating the entire fan base, but they have some pieces they could trade that aren't long term losses.  Not sure if they'd get much back, but Urshela, Sanchez, Kepler and any RP not named Duran come to mind.

[RpR]

14 minutes ago, clone52 said:

  Not sure if they'd get much back, but Urshela, Sanchez, Kepler and any RP not named Duran come to mind.

If they trade Urshela or Keppler the fan base will think the Front Office is run by fools and show it with empty stands.

They cannot afford to lose Sanches, period; right now his batting is imitating Jeffers but his catching is still far better.

[Doctor Gast]

I like the CO trade but I doubt it'll happen because their FO is out of his mind.

I'd prefer a Cub trade where we can take care of all needs in one shot w/o being expensive. 

Twins get  Contreras 9.9/ Robertson 2.5/ Azolay 12/ Stroman -17.3 = 7.1

Cubs get Sano -6.1/ Strotman 1.5/ Wallner 7.7/ SWR 5.4 = 8.5

Sano is thrown in there to help increase prospect return. I really like SWR but might have to give him up to swing this deal. And Stroman is pitching well coming off the IL, Robertson is a very good closer this year, Azolay will fit nicely in long relief and spot start. Contreras is an upgrade at catcher, good with the bat and I'm sure these pitcher would like their catcher to come along.

I'd hope that the Cubs would consider trading Stroman and shed his salary since they aren't in contention but if not something else could be worked out and we'd have to look elsewhere for front-line SP

 

 

 

 

Total Value: 8.50

 

                                                                Angels                                   Astros                                   Athletics                                   Blue Jays                                   Braves                                   Brewers                                   Cardinals                                   Cubs                                   Diamondbacks                                   Dodgers                                   Giants                                   Guardians                                   Mariners                                   Marlins                                   Mets                                   Nationals                                   Orioles                                   Padres                                   Phillies                                   Pirates                                   Rangers                                   Rays                                   Red Sox                                   Reds                                   Rockies                                   Royals                                   TBD                                   Tigers                                   Twins                                   White Sox                                   Yankees                                           Twins

 

 

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Alzolay	SP	12
Contreras	C	9.9
Robertson	RHRP	2.5
Stroman	SP	-17.3

 

 

Total Value: 7.10

[lecroy24fan]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think Snell's salary is going to be prohibitive for many clubs. I'd be fine with that proposal, but  I don't think many teams will overpay for him and take on the salary. 

 

Simple solution is to have SD take Rogers contract back in the return.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

If they trade Urshela or Keppler the fan base will think the Front Office is run by fools and show it with empty stands.

They cannot afford to lose Sanches, period; right now his batting is imitating Jeffers but his catching is still far better.

Fair on Sanchez.  Kepler would disappoint fans and they probably wouldn't do it with Larnach hurt.

Urshela is expendable.  3B is Miranda's spot.  They could even sell on Urshela and trade for a DH and improve the team.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

Fair on Sanchez.  Kepler would disappoint fans and they probably wouldn't do it with Larnach hurt.

Urshela is expendable.  3B is Miranda's spot.  They could even sell on Urshela and trade for a DH and improve the team.

MIranda is no better at Third than Arraez was.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

MIranda is no better at Third than Arraez was.

He mashes.  He is also young and can improve.

Plus, I am talking about a scenario where the Front Office decides the can't compete this year.  Twins have a lot of players who need a spot in the lineup and Urshela isn't one.  When healthy, Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff and Miranda should be regulars.

[AlwaysinModeration]

#2 check (would have liked to get Mancini too)…and cheaper than expected!

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 8/1/2022 at 3:05 PM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Agreed that Merrifield - and Mancini - are Royal and Orioles staples that wouldn’t be likely be traded.  On the flip side, they are exactly the sort of hitters that could be spark plugs for a team come playoff time, and maybe KC and Baltimore would trade them in order to give them a chance at playing some postseason baseball.  (Think Rosario with the Braves last year?)

In the end both Mancini and Merrifield were moved, contrary to expectations.  Interested to see how they fare down the stretch and possibly postseason.