Where Frankie: Does Montas Still Make Sense For the Twins?

[Nash Walker]

Trade season is fast approaching. The Twins have only eight more games until the deadline, and they must improve the club if they want to find success in the second half and into the postseason. 

 

This five-point scoring system runs on five factors: player, projection, availability, expected cost, and viability: higher score = a better target for the Twins.

THE FIVE FACTORS
PLAYER: How has the player performed? How much of a difference would they make for the Twins?
PROJECTION: Is there an upside with this player? Is there team control beyond this year? Are there injury concerns?
AVAILABILITY: Is the player actually on the trade block?
EXPECTED COST: What will it take to acquire this player, in prospect capital and dollars?
VIABILITY: What’s the leaguewide desire for this player? Would the Twins have a chance in a bidding war?

There’s been a considerable buzz with Oakland Athletics’ starter Frankie Montas over the last six months. Does a trade still make sense for the Twins? Let’s break it down. 

PLAYER
Montas, 29, has become a high-quality workhorse. He’s thrown 283 2/3 innings since the start of last year with an ERA that’s 18% better than the league average. Montas has struck out 26% of batters in that span, with a 7% walk rate and 3.35 FIP. He’s rock solid. 

Thankfully, Montas has cut down on his sinker usage from a year ago. The pitch continues to get crushed, but he’s finally throwing it less and relying more on two, plus offspeed pitches. His four-seam fastball averages 96 mph and is a weapon when he pumps it up in the zone. 

Montas’ best pitch is a swing-and-miss splitter, but his slider has strong characteristics with a 40% whiff rate in 2022. The big right-hander has a complete array of weapons, and there’s room for upside with a few more tweaks. 

PLAYER SCORE: 4

PROJECTION
Any team that acquires Montas assumes the risk of his latest shoulder problem, which may or may not be a red flag. Encouragingly, he expects to log multiple starts before the trade deadline. He’s under team control through 2023. 

Montas has an electric arm, one that has ace potential. He’s not quite there yet, but a few tweaks could unlock a true star. I believe an acquiring team would encourage him to drop his sinker usage from 22% to 0%. The sooner Montas is a three-pitch pitcher, the better. His four-seamer has good spin and works best off his splitter and slider. 

Montas throws his sinker and four-seamer an identical 24.6% of the time against lefties. Against the sinker, they’re hitting .353 with a .647 slugging percentage. Against the four-seamer, they’re hitting .216 with a .297 slugging percentage. Easy fixes if Montas buys in. 

PROJECTION SCORE: 3

AVAILABILITY
The A’s have shopped Montas for months as they embark on a complete rebuild. They traded Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, and Sean Manaea but interestingly held onto Montas. It’s conceivable they were encouraged when the Twins received (at the time) a hefty package for 1.5 years of José Berríos. 

Montas’ health could be a significant enough deterrent that the A’s hold onto him until the winter. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where they receive more for him this offseason, though, which makes it highly likely he’s traded at the deadline. 

Still, these are the A’s, and you never really know. 

AVAILABILITY SCORE: 4

EXPECTED COST
Montas is the second-best starter on the market behind only Luis Castillo. If he showcases his health and teams feel comfortable enough, Montas should command at least one top-100 prospect and multiple more top prospects from a contender’s system. 

Montas’ contract should attract the Twins, given that they expect to compete again in 2023. On the flip side, his team control for next year significantly increases his price. The A’s have reportedly been interested in Spencer Steer, which is at least interesting. 

According to MLB Trade Simulator, a deal including Spencer Steer and Josh Winder would get it done. The tool is far from perfect, but that’s a package very similar to what the Twins got for Berríos last year. 

EXPECTED COST: 2

VIABILITY
The Twins’ interest in Montas is well-documented. He’s a good, young, controllable starter with upside. It’d be odd if they didn’t have interest in him. There will be many teams in the running. 

Montas’ shoulder questions could allow the Twins to jump the market, but a few healthy starts may be enough to convince teams he’s worth the risk. There are plenty of suitors, making it reasonably unlikely the Twins will outbid to acquire him.

VIABILITY SCORE: 2

The Montas situation has changed a few ways, specifically with his health. The Twins would be taking a risk on him while losing multiple top prospects. He is a game-one starter, but is he worth it? Comment below!

OVERALL SCORE: 15

 

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[Mark G]

While it is always interesting to speculate the package that would be the final trade, and Winder and Steer just might be that package, I would reserve judgment until we actually see the offer we make.  Personally, I would like a game one starter for a couple of Octobers, and I would probably pull the trigger if that turned out to be the package Oakland wanted.   But Falvine hasn't been taking my calls since the All Star break, so I haven't been able to let them know that.  I'm sure they just aren't getting my messages, but it does make me nervous.    

[RJA]

I would love to add him IF he is healthy. His next two starts will be critical. I have a hunch Steer and Winder wouldn’t get it done in this environment. It may take more. I have heard the A’s are looking for a left handed starter.  If so, might they want Povich?

[Otaknam]

Not sure how the Berrios trade for Martin and SWR is similar to a Montas trade for Steer and Winder. Winder has made six starts for the Twins and has successfully pitched six innings several times, no small feat with Rocco‘s tired formula of not allowing a starter to face a lineup for a third time. If he stays healthy Winder looks like a solid number three starter to me. Also after the Paddock disaster  I imagine the FO is a little gun shy about trading for another starter who might have shoulder problems.

[RJA]

I saw Montas went 3 innings last night with 5 K’s. 

[old nurse]

Considering what Oakland took back in the trades for Bassit and Manaea it is almost pointless to speculate what they would want for Montas. Pick a name off from the each of the Fort Meyers teams and one from Cedar Rapids that are performing well and that could be the trade. 

[Blyleven2011]

With all our injuries again this year and montas shoulder injury  in early July  , I would not trade for him thinking if he is healthy now before the trade deadline  , the shoulder injury  would likely reappear right before the playoffs and shut him down  ...

Winder , I would not trade at all , we developed the kid through our system and I have like  everything I have seen of him on the mound , he's to good of a talent to trade and seems like the only bulldog we have , but I guess if his value is high and the twins think his pitching may flounder  ,,, than trade him , I so far see a solid arm in winder when healthy .... 

We need help , we don't have a surplus of pitching at AAA  ,,, the twins need to trade what we have a surplus of and that's  infielders and a few outfielders ....

We aren't going to like what the FO does unless they can trade sano for more than a bucket of balls ...

 

 

[dxpavelka]

If we're gonna get something worth getting we're likely gonna have to give something we won't care to give.

[Doctor Gast]

Montas looked good in his 1st outing, I'm not really worried about him but he needs to be thoughly checked out unlike Paddack. If Oakland likes Steer, it's a good start. The return depends on Montas health. No matter I'd invest in him.

[Reptevia]

I’m not convinced this team is good enough with Montas to justify it this year anyway. If we stand pat or add a reliever or two, probably still win the division. I think they lose first with or without Montas. 

[Rosterman]

Well, looks like we may have to constantly worry about the health of Winder. Ober would be great to trade but, again, when will he pitch again.

When you trade for an arm to go into your rotation, he rpetty much has to repalce someone. Someone sent back to the minors, or traded themselves (or released). And you can honestly think of whom you have on staff or the system that you can probably live without the next season that could be coming up on free agent, Rule 5, whatever in the minors. Or even someone like Smeltzer, who ahs shown flashes of brilliant, but do you see him pitching fully in 2024 or beyond, but enough smoke-and-mirrors that you will take a chance on moving him rather than keeping him.