Twins Expectations

[Marshall_P]

  For decades the Minnesota baseball franchise has lived up to its nickname, replicating year after year, the low-market, middle of the pack team, with no real championship expectations. That all changed in November of 2016 when Thad Levine was hired as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Twins to bring a winning pedigree and attitude to the club. 

 Over the last five seasons, the Twins have finished:

-(2017) 85-77, 2nd AL Central -17 games back of Cleveland

-(2018) 78-84, 2nd AL Central -13 games back of Cleveland

-(2019) 101-61, AL Central Champions +8 games above Cleveland

-(2020) 36-24, AL Central Champions + 1 game above Cleveland and Chicago

-(2021) 73-89, Last place AL Central -1 back of Kansas City

 After two division championships, an injury plagued campaign found the Twins in the cellar in the Central, behind even the lowly rebuilding Royals. However, with many blocks to build upon going into the ’22 season, the top of the division is a realistic possibility. 

 The starting pitching rotation is completely turned over from opening day last year, led by Joe Ryan (acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade), Sonny Grey (FA signing), upcoming talent in Bailey Ober, and the veteran arms of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, both looking for greener pastures and new opportunities to resurrect their careers. 

The contract extension to keep potential perennial all-star CF Byron Buxton with the club long term was a much needed boost to clubhouse morale. With the departure of team “Captain” Nelson Cruz at the end of last summer, and fan favorite Willians (La Tortuga) Astudillo, the void for new leadership is wide open for the taking. 

NEW BLOOD:

Minneapolis has rarely been a priority destination for top of the linefree agent baseball players. However, former MVP Josh Donaldson signed with the Twins in 2020, setting up the signing of former World Series MVP Carlos Correa this offseason. Perhaps the Twin Cities are just a stepping diamond for these players to up their ante for larger contracts on “larger markets,” but for whatever it is worth, Falvey is doing his due diligence. 

PLAYOFF HISTORY

-(2020) HOU (L) 0-2 Wild Card Series

-(2019) NYY (L) 0-3 Division Series 

-(2017) NYY (L) 4-8 runs, Wild Card Game

-(2010) NYY (L) 0-3 Division Series 

-(2009) NYY (L) 0-3 Division Series

-(2006) OAK (L) 0-3 Division Series

-(2004) NYY (L) 1-3 Division Series

-(2003) NYY (L) 1-3 Division Series 

 IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM, TRADE FOR THEIR PLAYERS

The unclimbable mountain that is the New York Yankees has long been the sight of playoff exit for the Twins. In the offseason, Levine implied a bold new strategy: trading for the players that have been a thorn in their side in October. 

Josh Donaldson for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela.

Will it work? Will it “Reverse the curse of the Yankees dominating the Twins in the playoffs?”

No one can possibly know, but it is a bold approach to starting a new mixed approach in the Twins’ clubhouse. 

WHAT TO EXPECT

How to dethrone the White Sox and stave off the surging Tigers:

The key to the season for the Twins, as well as every other team, will be health. If the manager Rocco Baldelli can balance the playing time of his stars to all stay healthy, and contribute their expected level of talent, the Twins will be walking the tight rope at the top of a very competitive division.

BOLD PREDICTION

After years of being rolled over, the AL Central looks prime to be as competitive as any division this season. The White Sox look prime to defend their crown, as the Tigers and Twins offseason acquisitions set themselves up for competitive games no matter the opponent. The wild card will be determined by how well the Royals and newly branded Guardians’ young talent develop at the big league level.

GUT FEELING

 Tigers

White Sox 

Twins 

All Over 87 wins, with whoever plays each other the best during the season being the eventual division champion.

 

[Bradfoot]

79 wins is my guess.

 

I see the AL Central as a very good White Sox team and 4 teams with .500 potential.  Each of the 4 teams has a perfect scenario where they can push that up to 85 wins or so (Tigers/Royals - Prospects taking off, Twins/Guardians - healthy stars and former prospects regaining potential).

 

The Twins have a lot riding on a very small number of players.  If any of Buxton, Gray, or Correa spend any significant time on the IL they could find themselves in last place again.  We need those three to be healthy for most of the season AND at least a couple guys to take a significant step forward (Kirilloff, Larnach, Sano, Sanchez, Ober, etc.).  The path is there but a lot has to go right.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Over/under at 83. A lot of IFs need to come true to hit more than 85. I predict 84-78, playoff contention but no playoff spot, and Correa is one and done. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Marshall_P said:

 The starting pitching rotation is completely turned over from opening day last year, led by Joe Ryan (acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade), Sonny Grey (FA signing),

Minor correction, Gray was acquired via trade (Chase Petty).

[Brock Beauchamp]

@Marshall_P I wanted to respond to your support ticket here. I copy and pasted your content into the post itself. The reason you can't start a blog is because you need to have two approved posts before you're given the ability to start a blog in our blogs section. Write one more approved post and the blogs will unlock for you.

[bighat]

Nice summary. It's April, hope springs eternal.

[Number3]

It shouldn't be but the opener Friday is huge for this team. If memory serves correctly, last year was a debacle with another great Falvey Levine acquisition totally blowing his first save opportunity. They didn''t recover until June. I know its one down and 161 to go but if they are a winning team they will win Friday.

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, Number3 said:

I know its one down and 161 to go but if they are a winning team they will win Friday.

The Atlanta Braves won the World Series last year.  They started their season 0-4.  I won't bother going further back through the archives to find additional interesting examples.

I'm as ready as the next person to post a Season Over meme if the Twins lose the first game, all in good fun, but really you nailed it with the first part of your sentence.

[gunnarthor]

I wasn't that optimistic last year relative to everyone else but I might not be as pessimistic as everyone else this year. The Twins have some things going for it. They have two players who, if healthy, are legit MVP candidates. Not a lot of teams have that. Their lineup could be a top 3 lineup in baseball if everything breaks right and should easily be a top 10 offense in a normal course of events. Their best prospects are hitters as well. The pitching can't be as bad as last year, which was historically bad, and I think Bundy might be a really pleasant surprise for us. Pitching with a lead, with an offense that overwhelms the other team, this could be a team that competes for a playoff spot. Maybe they move some prospects in a few months to strengthen the staff once they decide they are actually in it.

On the other hand, this season could also be a dumpster fire. Jeffers/Sanchez could be the worst catching tandem in baseball. Ryan is not an ace and teams will figure him out. Gray is a solid pitcher but not a work horse. Our minor league pitchers are more depth then quality. I don't like the pen. Rogers is overrated. (Duran could be exciting though). We need Correa and Buxton to stay of the IL. Kiriloff needs to make a jump forward (I think he should). Kepler and Sano need to play up to expectations. 

There's a very real chance that the Twins end up trading Correa and Gray at the deadline - getting a better return then Chase Petty - and TD telling us what geniuses the FO is for pushing forward a rebuild.

My guess is that the Twins finish 3rd in the division with about 81 wins. 

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, Marshall_P said:

  For decades the Minnesota baseball franchise has lived up to its nickname, replicating year after year, the low-market, middle of the pack team, with no real championship expectations. That all changed in November of 2016 when Thad Levine was hired as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Twins to bring a winning pedigree and attitude to the club. 

 Over the last five seasons, the Twins have finished:

-(2017) 85-77, 2nd AL Central -17 games back of Cleveland

-(2018) 78-84, 2nd AL Central -13 games back of Cleveland

-(2019) 101-61, AL Central Champions +8 games above Cleveland

-(2020) 36-24, AL Central Champions + 1 game above Cleveland and Chicago

-(2021) 73-89, Last place AL Central -1 back of Kansas City

........

PLAYOFF HISTORY

-(2020) HOU (L) 0-2 Wild Card Series

-(2019) NYY (L) 0-3 Division Series 

-(2017) NYY (L) 4-8 runs, Wild Card Game

 

I'm aware that under Falvey/Levine the franchise has finally started to embrace modern aspects of the game, but the on field results have been strikingly similar, for better or worse, to what we watched under TR. 

[Linus]

81-81. The range of possible outcomes for this team is really wide. If you squint real hard you can see a path to the playoffs. You can also see a meltdown and fire sale at the deadline. 
I was quite worried about the pitching at the beginning of last year and that fear was proven correct. I don’t see the pitching in better shape this year either. I like the young pipeline but most young players struggle at first and nearly all of those pitchers have substantial injury histories. 

[Vanimal46]

I’m quite bullish on this team doing better than most think around here. As long as they don’t give up too early with selling veteran players for prospects.

The pitching pipeline is finally here and I have high aspirations that a couple will pop off. By June I’d love to see Alcala, Duran, and Rogers settle in as the late inning, high leverage options out of the pen. Winder’s stuff is nasty and he will hopefully be stretched out early on to take over a starting role. Balazovic, Sands, and many others are knocking at the door. 

The offense is still very good. Buxton is an MVP candidate if he plays more than 120 games. Sano is not completely lost at the plate to begin a season. Polanco is one of the best 2B in baseball. 

I’m thinking upper 80s wins right now with the potential to be over 90 if they stay the course and get help at the deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

84 wins? Sounds about right to me. (they were actually not bad once they cut their "closer" and made a couple other changes last year)

The 'pen is better than I think, and there are assets to add and subtract there. It can't be as bas as last year started. 

The O is good, and could be great by mid-year when AK is at first, Martin or Larnach is in Left.

The D? That's a bit scary right now. Somehow, Sano can't play first, and yet, there he'll be. Sanchez? Scary on D. LF? Ummmm.....not sure I love AK in the OF.

The starters? They are lucky they can have extra players for a month, and piggy back them. I just hope they commit to the process with Bundy and Archer and two young guys.....we'll see (not that they've said they'll do it).