Ranking the Twins Top-5 Fastball Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Baseball’s evolution points to players throwing harder than ever, so which Twins prospects have the organization's most effective fastballs?

 

In recent years, multiple prospects across baseball have used new technology and data to help refine their delivery to add something to their fastball. A middle-level prospect with a low-graded fastball can add movement and velocity to start moving up prospect lists. The pitches below rank on the 20-80 scouting scale, and most of these fastballs are big-league ready. 

5. Matt Canterino, RHP
Current Fastball/Future Fastball: 55/55
Minnesota selected Canterino from Rice University back in 2019 with the team’s second-round pick. His fastball sits from 91-96 mph but can top out at 98 mph. Last season, he struck out 45 batters in 23 innings. However, he has pitched fewer than 50 professional innings due to multiple IL trips. He has the pitch mix to be a starter at the big-league level, but many believe he will wind up serving in a relief role because of his health concerns. He just turned 24-years-old this winter, so the 2022 campaign will be important in deciding his role as he gets closer to the big-league level. 

4. Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Current Fastball/Future Fastball: 55/55
Balazovic pitched a career-high 97 innings last season, and he was over 2.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at Double-A. He was inconsistent throughout the 2021 campaign, but there were flashes of brilliance. His fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range, and he can top out at 97 mph. Some of the other names on this list will end up in the bullpen, but Balazovic still projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which has plenty of future value. Since he is already on the 40-man roster, there is a good chance Balazovic will make his big-league debut in 2022. 

3. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Current Fastball/Future Fastball: 60/60
Duran’s fastball is electric, as he showed last year by hitting over 100 mph at Triple-A. Typically, he sits in the 95-99 range, but he can reach over 100 mph if he rears back and gets the adrenaline pumping. He missed most of the 2021 season with a forearm strain, and there’s potential for him to end up as a bullpen arm. Even with his high velocity, his fastball doesn’t lead to a high strikeout rate, similar to former Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol. If healthy, Duran can get another opportunity to start, but it’s hard not to consider him a bullpen option as soon as 2022. 

2. Steven Cruz, RHP
Current Fastball/Future Fastball: 70/70
Cruz has been in the Twins organization since signing as an international free agent in 2017. Last season, his fastball sat at 95-99 mph while topping out at 101 mph. He doesn’t rank as one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects because he seems destined for a bullpen role. His command is lacking (5.9 BB/9), but his fastball-slider combination may be enough to be a useful relief arm at the big-league level. Last season, he posted a 14.4 SO/9 between Low- and High-A. To continue to move up the ladder, he will need to harness some of his erratic control.   

1. Joe Ryan, RHP
Current Fastball/Future Fastball: 70/70
Ryan’s fastball has been discussed in depth since he was traded to the Twins last July. He sits 90-94 mph while topping out at 96 mph. While that might not be as impressive as others on this list, his secondary characteristics separate his fastball from the others. He struck out over 35% of the batters he faced in the minors, and the team saw him transition that success to the big-league level. One of the concerns with Ryan is how frequently he uses his fastball, so it will be interesting to track his pitch usage throughout the 2022 campaign. 

Who do you think has the best fastball in the Twins system? Should someone else make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
— Top Power Tool Prospects
— Top Hit Tool Prospects
— Top Speed Tool Prospects

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[RJA]

I can't disagree with the 5 listed, but I am curioius how you viewed Varland's fastball.  I know it has been rated a 55, but boy now that he is hitting a 100 on the gun at times, it must be better than that.  How close was he to making the list?

[Heiny]

Our cache of pitching prospects is very impressive to me, and exciting as we watch them progress.  I am looking forward to the time when our staff is populated by a majority of home grown talents.

[ashbury]

Steven Cruz.  Now that's a name I've not heard in a long time.  A long time.  In fact I don't recall the name at all. 

Thanks for bringing a longshot arm to our attention.  Worth knowing, even if he remains Sir Walksalot and never reaches AA.

[mikelink45]

I am curious how Ryan can be rated number one in fastball.  Yes he has a deceptive delivery and succeeds with it, but his Fastball does not have the velocity of others on the list. 

[bean5302]

Velocity isn't the only thing with fastballs. Jim Hoey is the perfect example. A 100mph straightball is easy for an MLB hitter to knock out of the park. Deception on delivery and movement are key to fastball value.

Velocity matters, but the type of fastball matters too. Sinking fastballs generate weak ground ball contact with late break downwards (Jordan Hicks) and four seamers generate strikeouts (Chris Sale) while cutters can generate both on unpredictable movement (Mariano Rivera).

Other pitches wind up playing into the fastball as well. A pitcher with a great changeup automatically makes the fastball better because it adds to the deception if the hitter can't figure out which pitch is coming their way. Great control adds to it again since results do kind of find their way into the grades of the pitches themselves as well.

[The Mad King]

Your "average age of competition" mention always helps in the context of player development. Interesting article. Thanks

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Would Petty and Graterol have made this list?  While I like the two veterans obtained in the trades involving Graterol and Petty, I'm just curious.

[bean5302]

Petty would have made the list, though Graterol is no longer a prospect as he lost his rookie status. MLB grades Chase Petty's fastball as a 70. They put his slider at 55 and his changeup at 50 while Baseball America was even more bullish with a 70, 70, 55 ratings on those pitches, respectively.

The MLB world will know far more about him once he starts pitching against professional competition this year. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Petty would have made the list, though Graterol is no longer a prospect as he lost his rookie status. MLB grades Chase Petty's fastball as a 70. They put his slider at 55 and his changeup at 50 while Baseball America was even more bullish with a 70, 70, 55 ratings on those pitches, respectively.

The MLB world will know far more about him once he starts pitching against professional competition this year. 

 

 I saw Petty throwing at spring training several weeks ago, before he was traded, and I must rate his slider as jaw-dropping. There were audible sounds like "wow", "awe", "Umph" and "Mmph" from several of the fans stranding behind the fence within 10 feet of the catcher, and on the other side of the fence, even a player or two made sounds, when Petty threw his slider. It was impressive.   

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

 I saw Petty throwing at spring training several weeks ago, before he was traded, and I must rate his slider as jaw-dropping. There were audible sounds like "wow", "awe", "Umph" and "Mmph" from several of the fans stranding behind the fence within 10 feet of the catcher, and on the other side of the fence, even a player or two made sounds, when Petty threw his slider. It was impressive.   

The Petty trade could definitely end Falvey's tenure with the Twins. The reports on him made me feel he was just soooooo far ahead of what people were expecting.