Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 3.0

[fairweather]

In my fantasy world the Twins rotation would be Diamond, Worley, Deduno, DeVries, and Hernandez. Those free agent "additions" are going to hurt more than help. Look for another terrible start to the season for the Twins courtesy of the free agent "additions".

[fairweather]

If Diamond started the season on the DL I'd go with Walters over Hendriks as the 6th starter in same said fantasy world in which the Twins didn't waste their money on Pelfrey and Correia.

[fairweather]

If they had just pooled the moneys spent on Correia and Pelfrey, or as I call them the Corr-frey combo, on one decent starter like McCarthy, Dempster, Jackson, Marcum ect. just think how much more positive the general vibe around the Twins would be.

[cmathewson]

If the Twins go with an extra bench bat rather than three catchers, I have a hard time believing they would go with Benson as a "bench bat". He needs to play everyday. So the bench bat battle is between Wilkin Ramirez, Brandon Boggs, Chris Colabello and Jeff Clement. Because of Parmalee's versatility, I would go with one of the outfielders. Boggs is a switch hitter who can play all three outfield spots, so...

 

The only problem with that is 40-man roster issues. Say they take Boggs, DeVries, Deduno and Walters north. If so, they would need four new roster spots. I think they could DFA Woods and Butera because of their price tags. But I can't find other DFA candidates (unless you count Roenicke and Pinto). They might be forced by roster constraints to keep guys like Hendriks and Robertson rather than Deduno and Walters.

[Mike Sixel]

How long before a guy does not need to play everyday, and he is a bench guy?

[old nurse]

Because Ryan basically insulted Santana with his extension offer on his way out the door, leaving Smith with essentially no chance of re-signing him, forcing him to make a deal. Pierzynski was dealt because of Mauer's presence, but could have easily been kept as a backup C/DH at the time.

 

 

SF gave up a good package because AJ was a useful player entering his prime at a position that's starved for offense. It wasn't like they were getting sure-thing prospects in return, but they panned out better than prospects generally do.

 

The Mets ended up giving up less in their deal because they knew the Twins' hand was forced, and all of baseball knew Santana had one foot out the door the second he turned down Ryan's "competitive" 5/$100M offer. The prospects they got in return ended up being essentially useless during their Twins tenure, but making a deal was something Smith had to do given the circumstances.

 

Santana expressed a desire to leave long before the Ryan offer. As there were only a few teams at that time that would be able to meet Santana's salary demands that limited any leverage Smith had. The less that the Mets had to offer was a reflection of what was in their system at the time. Gomez, Guerra and Humber were top 100 in the minors prospects. Mulvey was not thought of as an throw in type of player. The Twins got less because Smith wouldn't go for the better package that Boston offered, He thought he needed a center fielder and Boston would not give up Ellesbury. How different the Twins would have been with Lowrie and Lester

 

Of course if the Twins would have kept Santana, had him sign with the Yankees and drafted the player California did with that pick they would be calling Smith a genius.

[Thrylos]

The only problem with that is 40-man roster issues...

 

I think that the Twins can open 5-6 spots on their 40-man roster tomorrow if they wanted to:

 

Alex Burnett

Casey Fien

Ryan Pressly

Tyler Robertson

Josh Roenicke

Caleb Thielbar

Tim Wood

 

Pick the 4-5 who do not make it to the MLB roster

 

and

 

Drew Butera

 

that's 5-6

[cmathewson]

Also, just checked and DeVries is on the 40-man. Deduno, Walters, Ramirez and Boggs are not. Only two of those are likely to make the team, though.

 

Fien has an option. Robertson would get claimed. Not sure about the others, but probably not.

[old nurse]

I think that the Twins can open 5-6 spots on their 40-man roster tomorrow if they wanted to:

 

Alex Burnett

Casey Fien

Ryan Pressly

Tyler Robertson

Josh Roenicke

Caleb Thielbar

Tim Wood

 

Pick the 4-5 who do not make it to the MLB roster

 

and

 

Drew Butera

 

that's 5-6

you forgot Correia and the loser of Floriman and Escobar battle

[Seth Stohs]

I think the Twins agree with you. They will probably continue to ignore it. Is that your recommendation?

 

If it is an illusion, then how is it possible that over several years and each year Molina does consistently well and Doumit does consistently poorly? Remember that this is supported by a sample of thousands of pitches. Both have played with multiple teams. Inexperienced staffs? How does that explain Jaso's performance with virtually the same staff as Molina? How about Chris Snyder vs. Doumit?

 

I would have gone into spring training with a different plan for back up catcher. I am not sure if we should project what the Twins will do or should do. I think they should find a back up at catcher that will be an asset to the young staff. I think Doumit should be in a Jim Thome role. At this Butera is the only option until someone is DFA'd by another team.

 

Like I said, you can look at it however you want. In watching pretty much every game last year, at no point did I say, Man, Doumit is a terrible catcher or doesn't frame the ball well.

 

As far as whether we should look at what the Twins will do or what they should do, I'm not smart enough or arrogant enough to think that my method of thinking is more right than theirs. They aren't even arrogant enough to claim that every decision they make is the right one.

[cmathewson]

Correia is going to start in the opening series. Period. Florimon is about 90% the starter at short. Escobar will make the team as a second utility guy.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, you have 11 sure-thing position players right now, so it's safe to say the two remaining spots go to two of the following:

 

Hicks

Butera

Ramirez

Boggs

Colabello

Clement

 

You indicate that Butera and Hicks are the leading candidates, but if *neither of them* which two do you think have the advantage out of the remaining four?

 

My sense is Benson and then probably Colabello or Clement.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Santana expressed a desire to leave long before the Ryan offer. As there were only a few teams at that time that would be able to meet Santana's salary demands that limited any leverage Smith had. The less that the Mets had to offer was a reflection of what was in their system at the time. Gomez, Guerra and Humber were top 100 in the minors prospects. Mulvey was not thought of as an throw in type of player. The Twins got less because Smith wouldn't go for the better package that Boston offered, He thought he needed a center fielder and Boston would not give up Ellesbury. How different the Twins would have been with Lowrie and Lester

 

Of course if the Twins would have kept Santana, had him sign with the Yankees and drafted the player California did with that pick they would be calling Smith a genius.

This would be great if Boston actually offered that package. Too bad they didnt.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sources: Red Sox willing to deal Ellsbury or Lester, not both - MLB - ESPN

[ScottyB]

One of Boston's offers was in fact Lester, Lowrie, Justin Masterson and Coco Crisp, but that has nothing to do with the topic of this year's roster, so bringing it back to the discussion.

 

Personally, I'm not seeing Florimon adding much to the equation. If it was me, Escobar makes the team as the starting shortstop and emergency catcher, Florimon gets sent down along with Butera, and that opens two bench spots for a couple of decent bats. Butera and Florimon are a phone call away at Rochester in an emergency. Florimon is batting .222 while Escobar is batting .333, and in my opinion Escobar is a more consistent fielder than Florimon who last year had a tendency to make spectactular plays and blow some routine ones.

[AlwaysinModeration]

In my fantasy world the Twins rotation would be Diamond, Worley, Deduno, DeVries, and Hernandez. Those free agent "additions" are going to hurt more than help. Look for another terrible start to the season for the Twins courtesy of the free agent "additions".

 

Hmmm...mine might be more like: Verlander, Hernandez, Price, Strasburg, and Halladay.

[Shane Wahl]

My sense is Benson and then probably Colabello or Clement.

 

I cannot see Benson! If there is a candidate in question who needs more time playing every day it is undoubtedly him. And aside from drawing a nice amount of walks this spring, his offense has been below average. Put that together with the disaster that was last season, and I can't justify making Joe the 4th OF. Platoon with Parmelee is better, but we know what Gardy would likely think of that.

 

Now that Colabello is down to Rochester, I would think that maybe it is going to be Hicks and Ramirez? Ramirez is a RH slugging option off the bench. Clement would be the 4th first basemen and hits from the wrong side of the plate. Maybe by May the Twins will have a 14-11 roster breakdown (one can always hope).

 

Also, Ramirez could pinch hit for Parmelee against lefties late. If Mastro pinch runs for Willingham, the late inning OF defense of Mastro-Hicks-and Ramirez is not too shabby.

[Seth Stohs]

I think you're right in the sense that Benson shouldn't be a 4th OF quite yet. I'm glad that the Twins stuck with him through that initial struggle, realizing he was so far behind after being hurt all of last season and not being able to play and train throughout the offseason either. He's been much better and likely needs to continue to play most every day.

 

I like Wilkin Ramirez. Loved when they signed him a year ago. He's still not old and does have power. I like that he's right-handed and could platoon with Parmelee as well as pinch hit.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins need to keep Benson if they send down Hicks. Ramirez is not a good defender anywhere in the OF. Boggs is a LF option.

 

I would send down Hicks for the extra year of control and then flip him with Benson in late April. They would be trading three weeks of his rookie season for all of his 2019 season. Benson would still get plenty of playing time in AAa.

[Willihammer]

Like I said, you can look at it however you want. In watching pretty much every game last year, at no point did I say, Man, Doumit is a terrible catcher or doesn't frame the ball well.

 

You haven't noticed the head duck? Its like a tell. He only does it when he's bluffing, and he never gets the call. He's doing it again right now, catching Worley

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/20110521_doumit_avila.gif

[Brandon]

Back to the rotation. My top 5 predictions are Worely, Hendriks, DeVries Corriea and either Dedunno or Pelfry with the spot Pelfry's to lose as of today. (Diamond starts on DL and Pelfry could start there too to work on mechanis for 20 days)

 

Hendriks and DeVries are tied as I see it so whoever is pitching better at the time someone comes back the other goes down.

 

Walters may get a shot in the pen. I dont want to see Corriea in the rotation at this point. Too bad i dont get a say in that. Dedunno and Walters are most likely to be sent down because of contract status and be the 7th and 8th starters this year. I think when Pelfry gets his mechanics down probably around the allstar break up until his arm wears out for the season he will be a solid pitcher.

[Brandon]

Back to the rotation. My top 5 predictions are Worely, Hendriks, DeVries Corriea and either Dedunno or Pelfry with the spot Pelfry's to lose as of today. (Diamond starts on DL and Pelfry could start there too to work on mechanis for 20 days)

 

Hendriks and DeVries are tied as I see it so whoever is pitching better at the time someone comes back the other goes down.

 

Walters may get a shot in the pen. I dont want to see Corriea in the rotation at this point. Too bad i dont get a say in that. Also i did not mean to say he wont start this year in my earlier post. just that he isnt pitching up to someone wh deserves a spot. Dedunno and Walters are most likely to be sent down because of contract status and be the 7th and 8th starters this year. I think when Pelfry gets his mechanics down probably around the allstar break up until his arm wears out for the season he will be a solid pitcher.

 

With all of the pitchers comming back from injury how much sense would it make to go with a 6 man rotation for a while starting late april though June?

[3up3down]

So you guys still see Hendriks ahead of DeVries,walters & Deduno?why? What do these guys have to do to move ahead of him, all 3 of them have been lights out this spring & all had better showings in the bigs...I Am still not sold on Deduno , just too many pitches & will tax the pen.. I don't think it was a good idea for Hendriks to disagree with Gardy on his pitch selection..maybe that will help them give these other guys a shot at that spot..

[Mr. Brooks]

So you guys still see Hendriks ahead of DeVries,walters & Deduno?why? What do these guys have to do to move ahead of him, all 3 of them have been lights out this spring & all had better showings in the bigs...I Am still not sold on Deduno , just too many pitches & will tax the pen.. I don't think it was a good idea for Hendriks to disagree with Gardy on his pitch selection..maybe that will help them give these other guys a shot at that spot..

 

Personally, I like Hendricks above those other guys because Hendricks is the only one of those guys that I view as a medium to long term MLB pitcher, albeit a back end one, but still.

And, since its a lost season, I'd just assume give Hendricks 190 innings and see what happens. Its time to find out if he can be a 4 or 5 in this league, and we arent going to know from short stints and/or time at AAA.

[jorgenswest]

Personally, I like Hendricks above those other guys because Hendricks is the only one of those guys that I view as a medium to long term MLB pitcher, albeit a back end one, but still.

And, since its a lost season, I'd just assume give Hendricks 190 innings and see what happens. Its time to find out if he can be a 4 or 5 in this league, and we arent going to know from short stints and/or time at AAA.

 

I agree. Hendriks is much younger. He has been much better in AA and AAA. He is the only one with upside.

 

Look at Viola's first two seasons and 56 starts at a similar age. He was the worst pitcher in baseball. Look at Radke. Santana's first two seasons from the pen were terrible. The only way to find out if Hendriks is to put him out there every fifth day and be patient in the investment.

[Kwak]

Does your arm hurt when these guys "pitch too many pitches". Deduno would only "tax the pen" (which is why they are there in the first place) by religiously adhering to the philosophy of "manage by pitch count". That might be OK for a pitcher in his early 20's that the team has plans to keep him long-term--but for a guy who is in his late 20's and who is rojected to be a place-holder for a year or two, it isn't. Part of what is hurting the franchise is rigid adherence to philosophy and style rather than end result. It seems that winning isn't sufficient if winning wasn't done "the right way". If Deduno requires 120 pitches to go six innings of three or less, so be it. Gardehire's (and also Ryan's) arm will be just fine the next day.

[stringer bell]

I just got back from Ft. Myers and I would like to remind all here of a couple of things: 1) While it is fun to speculate, the reality is that the roster will look considerably different by midseason and that everybody who is being considered will most likely have the chance to establish themselves at some time this year. 2) This season IMHO, is about players like Plouffe, Parmelee and Dozier (among position players) solidifying their role as big-league starters. I am betting on all three to thrive, but odds are one or more will fail and become failed prospects. On the pitching side, it is disappointing that Gibson was sent out early, but he will be the first call-up if he is effective at Rochester and it is a near-certainty that everybody in Rochester and New Britain who pitches well will get their chance with the Twins. FWIW, I think Hendriks and De Vries both start in the rotation as Diamond is brought along slowly, Walters makes the club as sixth starter/long man and Pressley gets a spot. My prediction is that Sweet Drew makes the club as the 25th man, despite little need for a third catcher.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

I am in total agreement with Stringer bell that this year is about the development of the three position players solidifying their roles as big leaguers, with Parmelee possibly moving to 1st come trade deadline time. This isn’t the year of solidifying the starting rotation, too many young prospects need more time in the minors. I am hoping that one or two of the Hendriks, De Vries, Walters & Deduno group work their way to a part of the rotation by mid-season, maybe forcing management to move Correia to the bullpen.

[cmathewson]

The Twins need to keep Benson if they send down Hicks. Ramirez is not a good defender anywhere in the OF. Boggs is a LF option.

 

I would send down Hicks for the extra year of control and then flip him with Benson in late April. They would be trading three weeks of his rookie season for all of his 2019 season. Benson would still get plenty of playing time in AAa.

 

I agree that they need an everyday center fielder, and Maestro is not it. But he's a better fit for this team than Benson. When they lost Span, they lost their lead-off hitter. Replacing him with a patient hitter is vital. Benson is not that type of hitter.

 

But I question sending Hicks down in the first place. He's the best replacement for Span--he's more patient, has better range, a better arm, more power and is a better base stealer than Span. He's certainly better than Maestro and Benson at those skills. The Twins continue to put up the facade of a competition, but this was all-but won when he played outstanding defense against the Red Sox.

 

Everybody on this board seems to think that the Twins place a high priority on controlling service time. There is little evidence of this in the last 10 years. They sign the guys they want to keep to long-term deals before arbitration. Also, Terry Ryan has said he doesn't care. He was asked point blank by Bernadino and he said "Why would you even think that?" "Because fans are saying it." "Well, they're wrong." It makes no sense to entertain something that has been proven wrong by both Ryan's words and actions.

[nicksaviking]

People sure didn't like the Francisco Liriano trade at the time, but it's pretty clear that it was yet another great trade by Terry Ryan. Liriano continued his struggles with the White Sox and then left and went to the National League. In Escobar, the Twins have a utility player for the next five or six years, and possibly a long, lefty reliever for the next 6-7 years... pretty nice.

 

I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves. Escobar has hardly played for the Twins at the MLB level and Hernandez has yet to do so. I'm not saying Escobar won't be a Twin for five or six years but this is already his last option year. If his bat doesn't develop, five or six years is a long time to waste a roster spot without exposing him to waivers, especially if he ends up getting competition from the likes of Rosario, Dozier and Santana going forward.