On July 20th, what record makes you buy at the deadline?

[Dan Engebretson]

In 2002, the Twins were Division Champs.  In 2003, the Twins were 7.5 games out of first in the Central at the All Star Break with a sub .500 record of 44-49.  They traded Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart and the combination of them playing (reasonably) well and KC stumbling resulted in the Twins winning the division and heading to the playoffs (and actually winning a game!).

The 2003 team underperformed expectations but still reached the playoffs.  Coming in to the 2021 season, most thought the Twins were a flawed, but solid team (not unlike the 2003 Twins) that many expected to make it to the playoffs.  There is no doubt this team has underpeformed, but I believe if they're within 10 games (in 2003, the Twins won the Division by 4 games, so they gained 11.5 games from the All Star Break), they should add some good relief pitching and give it a run.

 

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Really, I think there are only four states to late July for the Twins, based on order of likelihood in my eyes:

1. Sell expiring deals
2. Buy lightly, probably a reliever and/or role player
3. Sell expiring deals and Buxton/Berrios, Donaldson if possible
4. Buy big

I think the last two are unlikely, especially the last one.

Just a few thoughts, in reverse order.

4] Not going to happen

3] I just don't think the Twins will trade Buxton or Berrios at this time. They want to keep both, if possible. I think their value, IF traded, would be best in the off-season. Not sure anyone would take on Donaldson's contract, and that's not a knock on him.

2] If the Twins hit July at .500 or really close, have continued to play better and get a run of decent health and the division of a possible WC don't appear as pure fantasy, I could absolutely see a RP added with a 2nd year available and said role player, probably a spare OF.

1] I can absolutely see expiring deals being moved. But I don't see a fire sale. No point in that, IMO. Happ and Shoemaker would seem obvious with Dobnak in the rotation and an open spot for Ober, Duran, etc to audition. Gut feeling is they'd keep Pineda and are looking to re-sign him and that he'd like to stay.

Despite the disappointing performances in this season's pen, I think the Twins like their ability to build a pen. And there are arms coming up and FA next year, so Robles and Colome MIGHT provide value at that point.

I'm not sure about Cruz. He gets right again and the Twins appear to have little chance, it might be doing him a solid to go to a team on a run. It would allow for more AB to the likes of Kirilloff and Larnach, etc. But if the offers were only a bag of balls, maybe they keep him to keep fan interest.

[cHawk]

If they really above .500, they should buy. The big question is, can they acquire all of the pieces they need to not be a total joke in the playoffs again? The only way I see that happening is if they can acquire a lights-out closer, the offense is healthy and clicking, and Maeda and Berrios and Pineda are all pitching well. To me, the odds of all of those happening are slim.

They could probably use a starter too.

[Dodecahedron]

18 hours ago, Platoon said:

I really can’t see the team getting to .500, even with a fairly easy schedule. But there is an unknown here. The White Sox. If they are running full throttle it’s unlikely the Twins will have any chance to catch them. The Sox would have to do their part in any scenario. As for the FO I doubt anything will make them become more than a very casual buyer at the most. I certainly wouldn’t invest much, and tie myself up for the future, to get into a play in game.

I think it's possible if not probable the Twins finish the year around .500.  But being at .500 by the trade deadline?  That's really tough, but again not impossible.

I agree a lot of this depends on the White Sox record, or really the records of all the contenders in the AL.

[Nine of twelve]

The 10-team postseason format was instituted in 2012. Here are some benchmarks to consider based on the 8 normal seasons in which that format has been in place.

Most wins by the worst team in a league to qualify for the postseason: 96

Average wins by the worst team in a league to qualify for the postseason: 89

Fewest wins by a team qualifying for the postseason: 85

Most wins by a team not qualifying for the postseason: 91. In other words, every team winning 92 or more games has qualified for the postseason.

Based on this, let's set 92 wins as the goal for this season. Given the 18-29 record when the poll was posted they would have to achieve a record of 74-41 in the remaining games to finish with 92 wins. To be on pace for that goal they would have to go 32-18 in the 50 games in question. Hence, I'd say a 30-20 record would mean holding but not buying. 25-25: sell Cruz, Simmons, Garlick, Robles and the like but keep core players. 20-30: listen to all offers and try to fleece someone. 35-15: sure, make a few buys; what the heck, it's not my money. 40-10 (as if) : go nuts!

[ashbury]

On 5/27/2021 at 9:49 PM, Nine of twelve said:

Based on this, let's set 92 wins as the goal for this season. Given the 18-29 record when the poll was posted they would have to achieve a record of 74-41 in the remaining games to finish with 92 wins. To be on pace for that goal they would have to go 32-18 in the 50 games in question. Hence, I'd say a 30-20 record would mean holding but not buying. 25-25: sell Cruz, Simmons, Garlick, Robles and the like but keep core players. 20-30: listen to all offers and try to fleece someone. 35-15: sure, make a few buys; what the heck, it's not my money. 40-10 (as if) : go nuts!

I'd have to guess that speculators drove up the spot-market price during the win streak, but after Friday's game it came crashing back down to previous levels.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure I need to wait until July 20th any more.  I think we can start talking about who stays and who goes right now from a selling point of view.

Maybe the upcoming NYY/Hou stretch will shock me, but I doubt it.  It's time to think about the wave of guys they have coming as the new core.

[SomeGuy]

I would base it on the landscape of the league more than how many wins we are above or below .500.  We are currently 7 games back of a wild card spot.  If we can trim that to 5 and pass a few more teams ahead of us, I would say there would be a reason to attempt to grab that last spot.  

[Nine of twelve]

On 5/27/2021 at 8:49 PM, Nine of twelve said:

 

...let's set 92 wins as the goal for this season. Given the 18-29 record when the poll was posted they would have to achieve a record of 74-41 in the remaining games to finish with 92 wins. To be on pace for that goal they would have to go 32-18 in the 50 games in question. Hence, I'd say a 30-20 record would mean holding but not buying. 25-25: sell Cruz, Simmons, Garlick, Robles and the like but keep core players. 20-30: listen to all offers and try to fleece someone. 35-15: sure, make a few buys; what the heck, it's not my money. 40-10 (as if) : go nuts!

Bump.

The Twins are 15-17 since this poll was posted. Not horrible, but clearly not good enough to contend. I'll stand by what I posted here, now about 7 weeks ago. Start listening to offers for veterans on short term contracts and see if we can get someone to overpay. Don't part with core players at this point unless the offer is ridiculous.

This month has the potential to be the best month in Falvine's tenure if they can turn our tradeable assets into worthwhile players.

[Vanimal46]

40 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Bump.

The Twins are 15-17 since this poll was posted. Not horrible, but clearly not good enough to contend. I'll stand by what I posted here, now about 7 weeks ago. Start listening to offers for veterans on short term contracts and see if we can get someone to overpay. Don't part with core players at this point unless the offer is ridiculous.

This month has the potential to be the best month in Falvine's tenure if they can turn our tradeable assets into worthwhile players.

I am curious to hear from you and others. Where would you start? I would begin making calls to trade Robles before the market is flooded with similar talent relievers. He won’t fetch much, but at least it opens the flood gates flipping other expiring contracts. 

[wsnydes]

10 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I am curious to hear from you and others. Where would you start? I would begin making calls to trade Robles before the market is flooded with similar talent relievers. He won’t fetch much, but at least it opens the flood gates flipping other expiring contracts. 

I like that idea.  Given a lighter return, perhaps that pulls a few more borderline buyer teams into the fray.  

Probably sit on guys like Cruz and Pineda (pending health status) a little longer to see if more teams join the market for those types of players.  Everyone else that would be tradeable would fall in between?

[In My La Z boy]

10 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I am curious to hear from you and others. Where would you start? I would begin making calls to trade Robles before the market is flooded with similar talent relievers. He won’t fetch much, but at least it opens the flood gates flipping other expiring contracts. 

Hopefully you start by fielding incoming calls. It all begins with who is interested in who? If we make the 1st phone call we lose. Guessing the phone is already ringing. It should be a wild 4 weeks. 

[USAFChief]

I'd buy a new record by the Beatles. Or a new record by Steely Dan.

[wsnydes]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd buy a new record by the Beatles. Or a new record by Steely Dan.

Funny, I'd a figured you to be more of a Yes fan.