Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

[Boom Boom]

The Twins obviously have some money to spend. If the starting pitching market is too expensive for them, it would be nice to pick up a middle infielder or something else with the rest of that dough.

 

Unless the ultimate goal is to slash payroll.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Very bad analogy. Does absolutely nothing to refute my point that the Twins could have started discussions and were told no way. Not many offers or discussions are made public. Puhols turned down more money from Miami in a public discussion. Why have the major free agents all gone to winning teams the last six years? Absence of signing by the Twins is not proof of absence of discussions. Would you go to work for an outfit that offered you little chance of team success if you had an option? You already have more money than you will ever need regardless of where you sign. I think not.

 

Your entire assumption of winning teams is flawed. High profile players go to the teams who are willing to commit big money. Pujols probably passed on Miami because they're a horribly run franchise that is known to liquidate their players every 3-5 years. He was right because they just did it again.

 

The Cubs don't have difficulty signing free agents and they're almost always awful. The Dodgers haven't had trouble signing people in the past few years and they've been mediocre. The Mets never seem to have trouble signing people when they want to spend money. Detroit never seems to have a problem and they've been up-and-down so much in the past decade it's like a rollercoaster. High profile signings are linked more closely with big market teams (that also happen to win because they have money to spend on good players) than it does with winning franchises. Another example is the Nationals. They were pretty awful before they started throwing money around and amazingly, started attracting good free agents.

 

The rumor mill is abuzz with teams being linked to many different free agents. We hear of it all the time. Yet, oddly enough, the Twins are never in the final 2-3 teams discussed with these free agents. Why is that? Because the Twins are better at keeping agents' mouths shut about offers? That argument doesn't hold water. Agents are in the business of drumming up excitement about their players. Why would they suddenly keep quiet just because the Twins are involved?

[Brock Beauchamp]

On the one hand, you're using information made available about offers to Pujols and Hunter to prove FAs sign only with good teams. "Pujols turned down this, Hunter turned down that." Information made available...which is the only reason you know about it...these offers were rumored to have been made.

 

On the other hand, you're using a lack of information made available about Twins offers to FAs to prove we don't know they didn't make legitimate offers.

 

Sometimes--often times--the simplest explanation is the most logical:

 

The Twins haven't made any legitimate offers. That would explain why they haven't signed anyone. This explanation fits with their history, fits with their apparent goals, and explains why local or national baseball writers haven't linked the Twins to any legit pitchers.

 

Or, we could go with your theory: The Twins have made the best offer to numerous players/pitchers--all completely under the radar, unknown to any writer anywhere, all of which seem to know about other deals days in advance--but the conspiratorial SOBs just won't take their money.

 

I wouldn't say definitely that the Twins haven't made any legitimate offers. We just don't know... On the other hand, it is unlikely that they haven't made any legitimate offers. Otherwise, we would have heard something, just like we do for almost every other team in the mix.

 

Other than that minor quibble, I entirely agree.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

Very bad analogy. Does absolutely nothing to refute my point that the Twins could have started discussions and were told no way. Not many offers or discussions are made public. Puhols turned down more money from Miami in a public discussion. Why have the major free agents all gone to winning teams the last six years? Absence of signing by the Twins is not proof of absence of discussions. Would you go to work for an outfit that offered you little chance of team success if you had an option? You already have more money than you will ever need regardless of where you sign. I think not.

You are defending the Twins inability to sign free agents "because they can't?" It sounds like a small child is making this argument. This is major league sports, the athletes go where the money is. If you can't accept that fact, I don't know what else to say.

 

You are suggesting the Twins are somehow not responsible for the makeup of their own roster because they aren't any good. They are responsible, in every aspect, of the product they put on the field. Being lousy is no excuse for being cheap in free agency. They do not deserve any sort of free pass or excuse for not getting players to sign here. It is not because they are lousy, it's because they don't want to spend what it takes to sign these players.

[edavis0308]

Just thinking out loud here, how on Earth have we not been linked to Derek Lowe? He seems right up our wheelhouse, especially this year.

[Winston Smith]

The ex-players on MLB TV have talked about this many times and always say that players will NEARLY always take the most money. It's very rare that a player will leave money on the table.

If you offer them the money they will sign.

[old nurse]

Why anyone would elect to live in Detroit for half the year over Chicago, or any other town in America for that matter, is proof enough for me that it is all about the money for most people. And, the Tigers have landed at least one top flight free agent for 4 straight offseasons (Damon, Valverde, VMart, Benoit, Fielder, Hunter, Sanchez).

 

Detroit has fielded a far better team than Chicago in far less of a zoo for an an environment. Suburban life in Detroit cannot be much different than suburban life anywhere else.

[old nurse]

You are defending the Twins inability to sign free agents "because they can't?" It sounds like a small child is making this argument. This is major league sports' date=' the athletes go where the money is. If you can't accept that fact, I don't know what else to say.

 

You are suggesting the Twins are somehow not responsible for the makeup of their own roster because they aren't any good. They [i']are[/i] responsible, in every aspect, of the product they put on the field. Being lousy is no excuse for being cheap in free agency. They do not deserve any sort of free pass or excuse for not getting players to sign here. It is not because they are lousy, it's because they don't want to spend what it takes to sign these players.

No need for personal insults,

[old nurse]

Your entire assumption of winning teams is flawed. High profile players go to the teams who are willing to commit big money. Pujols probably passed on Miami because they're a horribly run franchise that is known to liquidate their players every 3-5 years. He was right because they just did it again.

 

The Cubs don't have difficulty signing free agents and they're almost always awful. The Dodgers haven't had trouble signing people in the past few years and they've been mediocre. The Mets never seem to have trouble signing people when they want to spend money. Detroit never seems to have a problem and they've been up-and-down so much in the past decade it's like a rollercoaster. High profile signings are linked more closely with big market teams (that also happen to win because they have money to spend on good players) than it does with winning franchises. Another example is the Nationals. They were pretty awful before they started throwing money around and amazingly, started attracting good free agents.

 

The rumor mill is abuzz with teams being linked to many different free agents. We hear of it all the time. Yet, oddly enough, the Twins are never in the final 2-3 teams discussed with these free agents. Why is that? Because the Twins are better at keeping agents' mouths shut about offers? That argument doesn't hold water. Agents are in the business of drumming up excitement about their players. Why would they suddenly keep quiet just because the Twins are involved?

 

The original fire sale was not by the Loria group. There was no sell off after the second championship and the team was competitive for a few years. They made a trade of Lee for someone who didn't have a long career.

Most of the times you hear of other team's competitive bids is when it is used to jack a price up when somewhere else when negotiations are stalling.

[ericchri]

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

 

Honestly, I think if you walked into a Ferrari dealership with $5000 in hand, even if you were dressed in cut-up blue jeans and a raggy T-shirt, they'd listen to you very carefully. They might not sell you something on the spot, they'd probably want to check the rest of your finances, but they'd listen to you. Right up until the time someone else walked in dressed in a suit with $6000 in hand. That's of course assuming they only have one car available to sell, too.

 

I don't care to add much to this debate, honestly, it's done to death at this point. But I couldn't overlook the one post in this debate that at least made me smile.

[FrodaddyG]

Honestly, I think if you walked into a Ferrari dealership with $5000 in hand, even if you were dressed in cut-up blue jeans and a raggy T-shirt, they'd listen to you very carefully. They might not sell you something on the spot, they'd probably want to check the rest of your finances, but they'd listen to you. Right up until the time someone else walked in dressed in a suit with $6000 in hand. That's of course assuming they only have one car available to sell, too. .

What?

 

If you walk into a Ferrari dealership and offer them $5000 for a car, they don't wait briefly and see if a better offer comes along, then take a minuscule fraction of its value. They laugh at you and send you on your way.

[ThePuck]

No need for personal insults,

 

As opposed to how you talked to me when we were originally having this debate? It's okay if YOU do the insulting...just not vice versa.

 

And I'm kind of wondering how it is all these other people are making very similar points to what I was making on this same debate, some exactly the same, but you aren't overtly insulting them.

[ericchri]

I didn't say offer them $5000 for the car, I said walk in with $5000 in hand. There's a big difference, as one implies you may have the resources to back up a huge purchase, the other would as you said be just plain stupid.

[FrodaddyG]

I didn't say offer them $5000 for the car, I said walk in with $5000 in hand. There's a big difference, as one implies you may have the resources to back up a huge purchase, the other would as you said be just plain stupid.

Yes, the theoretical Brock was throwing out, which you were drawing from, wasn't "go in and offer a down payment towards a long-term series of more respectable installments". It was "go, in, offer a ridiculously low sum for a valuable item, and then be outraged when it isn't accepted".

[Highabove]

I think of Ryan as the Guy who shows up to a Sotheby's Art Auction with $50 dollars in his pocket.

[ericchri]

Yes, the theoretical Brock was throwing out, which you were drawing from, wasn't "go in and offer a down payment towards a long-term series of more respectable installments". It was "go, in, offer a ridiculously low sum for a valuable item, and then be outraged when it isn't accepted".

 

First, while you may choose to interpret it that way, it isn't explicitly stated in his post that it was a $5000 offer for the Ferrari, just that he brought $5000 in (which is what I replied to). Read his post again.

 

Second, his post is patently absurd, obviously for comic effect. For simplicity, I'll assume a Ferrari is $100,000. Thus he would be implying that he was offering 1/20 of the value of the car. Now, I can't be absolutely certain of course, but I'm going to assume the Twins aren't offering 1/20 of the offers these FA pitchers are actually receiving. I have no idea if they had any interest in Dempster or not, but I'm pretty sure if they did their offer was probably more in the range of 2 years for $18-20 million total. Which is a whole lot different than 2 years for $3 million total. My point being, if you walked into a Ferrari dealer with $75,000 in cash, which would be a much more appropriate amount to the likely scenario the Twins have been operating in, you likely wouldn't be thrown out of the store unceremoniously. They would still turn you down, but a claim of "not being able to give your money away" wouldn't be quite as ridiculous in that case.

 

Third, I have no real dog in this fight. My post was mostly an (obviously misguided) attempt to provide a touch more humor in the notion the Twins (the guy in the jeans and t-shirt) are competing evenly with the deep pockets teams (the guy in the suit with a bit more money).

[ThePuck]

When asked about whether or not the Twins were done looking for pitching:

 

"I wouldn't day we're done," assistant General Manager Rob Antony said. "I wouldn't say were pushing hard. We have our feelers out there. If the situation is right, we could do something else. If not, we're O.K. too...''

[Willihammer]

I don't know what all this fuss is about. If you have the cunning, you can walk in the door with only 2000 and leave in a Ferrari. This has been filmed:

 

Scent of A Woman - I'm a Gray Ghost Too - YouTube

[TheLeviathan]

They would still turn you down, but a claim of "not being able to give your money away" wouldn't be quite as ridiculous in that case.

 

And yet, still ridiculous.....which was the point. You can't "give your money away" because you are lowballing people - they'll take the other, bigger pile.

[The Wise One]

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

 

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

[Kwak]

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

 

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

 

Methinks he wants a sizeable bonus, a very early selection in the 2014 Rule 4 Draft--and still be the Twins' GM!

[jokin]

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

 

And risk-averse would be a better term than cautious.

 

This team is going nowhere without taking at least one significant chance per season- and avoiding another Blackburn-like signing would seem to be a relatively easy thing to do.... oh wait, that's right, they signed yet another Blackburn clone for 2 years- And this above the market rate, a guy who couldn't even stay in the Pirates rotation. As Kwak just stated and as I have stated previously, watch what they do, not what they say. These signings thus far indicate that they are setting themselves up for another good draft slot in 2014 and again in 2015, with a plan for a return to mediocrity in 2015 with a large contingent of the kiddie corps finally called up in the everyday rotation and lineup plus Mauer.

[Guest USAFChief]

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

 

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

 

Welcome to TD.

 

Suggestion:

 

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

[70charger]

Welcome to TD.

 

Suggestion:

 

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

 

You might also consider thickening your skin. Just as a precaution.

[old nurse]

Welcome to TD.

 

Suggestion:

 

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

 

Damn lies and statistics Chief. They will have you believe a player is better than what he is and worth 14 million a year.

[one_eyed_jack]

It's not that they won't overpay, it's that they won't pay market prices.

 

Someone wake up Terry Ryan and tell him that it isn't 2004 anymore, and $10 million doesn get you what it used to. It's like listening to old people at the grocery store complain about food prices while reminiscing about what things used to cost what they were kids.

 

I supported the Span and Revere trades, I think they were good moves. But not spending some extra money to get something better than Correia is really frustrating. This is a weak division. It should not take much to compete in it. A decent arm or two, and the Twins would have at least had a chance to be playing meaningful games late in the season.

 

And signing decent FA's as opposed to crappy FA's would not have jeopardized the long-term plan or hamstrung the team financially. Teams are always looking for pitching, if nothing else we probably could have traded them for something half-decent at the deadline if it didn't work out.

 

We all got frustrated with Smith's recklessness, now we have the other extreme. Some of Smith's moves were the equivalent of going for it on 4th-and-22 on your own 20. But now we have Ryan, who won't go for it on 4th-and-1 on the other team's 20. (Sorry, got a football mindset, gearing up for tomorrow - go Vikes!)

[Shane Wahl]

If Marcum goes for 2 years and under 20 million bucks to someone other than the Twins I am going to blow a gasket.

[jokin]

It's not that they won't overpay, it's that they won't pay market prices.

 

 

 

 

 

And signing decent FA's as opposed to crappy FA's would not have jeopardized the long-term plan or hamstrung the team financially. Teams are always looking for pitching, if nothing else we probably could have traded them for something half-decent at the deadline if it didn't work out.

 

But, Ryan proved he will pay above market prices for bottom of the barrel talent, just not for league average talent or above. That's not a recipe for success, but a recipe for (continuation of the current) disaster. There will probably still be at least a half a dozen Correia-level-or -above pitching talents available for signing in February who will probably sign for less than Correia.

 

The way to rebuild and still display at least a modicum of current competitiveness is signing quality, marketable talent. This is money and risk that Ryan is apparently unwilling to expend. (ie Don't employ Mets/Cubs strategies at one extreme or Royals/Pirates strategies at the other end- Rays/Orioles-type strategies would be just about right)

[jokin]

If Marcum goes for 2 years and under 20 million bucks to someone other than the Twins I am going to blow a gasket.

 

Realistically, what % chance do you give for the Twins to win this deal?

[Highabove]

And risk-averse would be a better term than cautious.

 

This team is going nowhere without taking at least one significant chance per season- and avoiding another Blackburn-like signing would seem to be a relatively easy thing to do.... oh wait, that's right, they signed yet another Blackburn clone for 2 years- And this above the market rate, a guy who couldn't even stay in the Pirates rotation. As Kwak just stated and as I have stated previously, watch what they do, not what they say. These signings thus far indicate that they are setting themselves up for another good draft slot in 2014 and again in 2015, with a plan for a return to mediocrity in 2015 with a large contingent of the kiddie corps finally called up in the everyday rotation and lineup plus Mauer.

 

1982 ???????