Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

[70charger]

Please don't take this the wrong way, 70charger, but every time you reply to one of these inane posts (because I read all your posts) you thwart my attempt to block them by using the site's 'ignore' function.

 

Duly noted. I shouldn't be feeding the trolls anyway.

[jokin]

The thing is that you don't need to go as high as Greinke. Sanchez is well above average. Marcum has been well above average, as has Dempster.

 

There are guys who rate quite a bit above "mediocre", yet the Twins aren't signing them and instead, pursue guys like Correia and Saunders, who only qualify as mediocre on their best days.

 

So far, the Twins have "overpaid" for awful pitchers. We could only wish they were overpaying for mediocrity.

 

How about Edwin Jackson? He produced Dempster numbers and got a Dempster contract and is 7 years younger.

 

The guy was in or near the top quintile for SPs in GB%, K/9, K/BB, xFIP, K%...etc. The Twins could have locked him up last year and again this year, if they were willing to just slightly overbid the market....and still come in significantly under their own self-imposed payroll restrictions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How about Edwin Jackson? He produced Dempster numbers and got a Dempster contract and is 7 years younger.

 

The guy was in or near the top quintile for SPs in GB%, K/9, K/BB, xFIP, K%...etc. The Twins could have locked him up last year and again this year, if they were willing to just slightly overbid the market....and still come in significantly under their own self-imposed payroll restrictions.

 

I've been bullish on Jackson for a long time. Given the Twins' payroll constraints, I wanted them to pursue him harder than anyone else. He's solid though unspectacular, still young, and could be had on a 3-4 year deal. He was exactly what the Twins should have been targeting this offseason.

 

But they didn't.

[old nurse]

I've been bullish on Jackson for a long time. Given the Twins' payroll constraints, I wanted them to pursue him harder than anyone else. He's solid though unspectacular, still young, and could be had on a 3-4 year deal. He was exactly what the Twins should have been targeting this offseason.

 

But they didn't.

 

The early quotes was that they were going to be aggressive this off season. Jackson and others looking at the supporting cast could have said no thank you. Remember also the quote that Ryan said they couldn't give money away. The deals made should make the Twins better down the road but for 2013 the Twins would remain a last choice option.

[Guest USAFChief]

The idea that the Twins couldn't improve their team because free agents wouldn''t sign here is one possible theory.

 

It's a theory completely without evidence, contrary to history, and it defies rational thought, but it's one possible theory.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The early quotes was that they were going to be aggressive this off season. Jackson and others looking at the supporting cast could have said no thank you. Remember also the quote that Ryan said they couldn't give money away. The deals made should make the Twins better down the road but for 2013 the Twins would remain a last choice option.

 

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

 

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

[edavis0308]

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

 

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

 

At this point, I think walking into a Kia dealer with a crisp new $100 is a more accurate comparison.

[snepp]

First they couldn't give the money away, and now it's that they refuse to "overpay" for anyone that doesn't suck.

 

 

It's either a contradiction, or all of this money they couldn't give away was really just a bunch of low-ball offers with little chance of ever being accepted. I'm guessing the latter.

 

 

 

Annnnnnnnd Brock basically just said the exact same thing, but did it in a much more entertaining way.

[Guest USAFChief]

At this point, I think walking into a Kia dealer with a crisp new $100 is a more accurate comparison.

 

The used car dept at a Kia dealer, at that.

[nicksaviking]

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

 

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

 

And since they pulled this same stunt when "attempting" to negotiate with Santana and Hunter, it's logical to believe this is actually what is happening with this years free agents to whom they "can't give away their money."

[Knotholemike]

The Pirates. Bumped him. From their (the Pirates') rotation.

 

Ha Ha Ha

[Kwak]

Reducing the team's payroll by ~20% is no accident--it was part of a plan. If that plan results in another throwaway season--it will still be a lucrative year for those on the Executive Committee (also part of the plan!).

[Highabove]

Sometimes you overpay in one area and balance it out with a bargain in another.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem is the Twins prize reliability over talent at almost every level. And because they are so risk averse (if ever you could diagnose a sports franchise with a psychological impairment.....) the only time they will make a splash is when the player's number one asset is reliability.

 

See: Pelfrey and Correia rather than guys with more talent/upside.

[PseudoSABR]

I think the basic point (coming from TR) is that overpaying for lousy pitching (Corriea) is less expensive than overpaying for average pitching (McCarthy, etc.).

[Jim Crikket]

I think the basic point (coming from TR) is that overpaying for lousy pitching (Corriea) is less expensive than overpaying for average pitching (McCarthy, etc.).

 

And that's a perfectly reasonable point, as long as you aren't concerned about your team collecting any of those... oh, what do they call them?... oh yeah... wins.

[Oxtung]

Sometimes you overpay in one area and balance it out with a bargain in another.

 

Presumably the pitching has been the bargain (oh god I hope that's what you're saying here) so what talent do you think the Twins will bring in with the other $15-20 million dollars they haven't spent? At this point it looks more like the Twins are just fleecing the fanbase.

[jokin]

Presumably the pitching has been the bargain (oh god I hope that's what you're saying here) so what talent do you think the Twins will bring in with the other $15-20 million dollars they haven't spent? At this point it looks more like the Twins are just fleecing the fanbase.

 

Your $15-20M number is way off. They essentially offloaded Span's contract and replaced it with Correia and so the Twins have actually only added just $4M for Pelfrey. Minus all of the other numerous castoffs and non-reuturnees, the Twins have more like close to $30M that "they haven't spent" when compared to the 2012 payroll (Pavano, Baker, Span, Marquis, Casilla, Liriano, Capps salaries total to well over $30M that no longer exist on the payroll, replaced thus far by players making around the minimum or a crap-shoot lottery ticket like Harden).

 

If you consider equating the outright gutting of the team up the middle as a standard fleece-job, so be it.

[Highabove]

My point was this, The Twins got a bargain with Willingham on one end, overpaying for a reliable Pitcher on the other end would not be a mortal sin.

[Oxtung]

Your $15-20M number is way off. They essentially offloaded Span's contract and replaced it with Correia and so the Twins have actually only added just $4M for Pelfrey. Minus all of the other numerous castoffs and non-reuturnees, the Twins have more like close to $30M that "they haven't spent" when compared to the 2012 payroll (Pavano, Baker, Span, Marquis, Casilla, Liriano, Capps salaries total to well over $30M that no longer exist on the payroll, replaced thus far by players making around the minimum or a crap-shoot lottery ticket like Harden).

 

If you consider equating the outright gutting of the team up the middle as a standard fleece-job, so be it.

 

Call it $15m or $30m. Call it a gutting or a fleece job. Those are basically semantics in my question. The poster I quoted above seemed to be implying the Twins were getting "bargains" in the pitching department so that they could splurge elsewhere. My question is where? At this point it is looking incredible likely the Twins will just pocket that extra millions of dollars. I'll be disgusted if that is $10m or $30m. Why the team was unwilling to spend on FA pitching I may never understand. I certainly don't understand it right now.

[Oxtung]

My point was this, The Twins got a bargain with Willingham on one end, overpaying for a reliable Pitcher on the other end would not be a mortal sin.

 

ahh...misunderstood you. I thought you were implying big things to come

[old nurse]

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

 

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

 

Very bad analogy. Does absolutely nothing to refute my point that the Twins could have started discussions and were told no way. Not many offers or discussions are made public. Puhols turned down more money from Miami in a public discussion. Why have the major free agents all gone to winning teams the last six years? Absence of signing by the Twins is not proof of absence of discussions. Would you go to work for an outfit that offered you little chance of team success if you had an option? You already have more money than you will ever need regardless of where you sign. I think not.

[old nurse]

The idea that the Twins couldn't improve their team because free agents wouldn''t sign here is one possible theory.

 

It's a theory completely without evidence, contrary to history, and it defies rational thought, but it's one possible theory.

 

It is a theory based on where people sign. There is plenty of evidence out there by watching where past players have signed. What do you have that proves it wrong in recent history?

[old nurse]

And since they pulled this same stunt when "attempting" to negotiate with Santana and Hunter, it's logical to believe this is actually what is happening with this years free agents to whom they "can't give away their money."

 

Torri Huntrer signed the second largest contract behind Alex Rodriguez. Had he signed the Twins offer he would have signed the second largest per year contract handed out. You had Morneau coming off a MVP season, Liriano pre Tommy John looked like he was going to be a dominant pitcher. . So in 2010 with no long term deals you have a choice between an MVP power hitter, potentially a staff ace, and an aging player. Hindsight is so easy.

Santana had publicly stated long before negotiations started that he wanted to play somewhere else. Had the Twins made a better trade you wouldn't be complaining. The Santana contract has them paying about8 million per WAR, way overpriced.

[SweetOne69]

Your $15-20M number is way off. They essentially offloaded Span's contract and replaced it with Correia and so the Twins have actually only added just $4M for Pelfrey. Minus all of the other numerous castoffs and non-reuturnees, the Twins have more like close to $30M that "they haven't spent" when compared to the 2012 payroll (Pavano, Baker, Span, Marquis, Casilla, Liriano, Capps salaries total to well over $30M that no longer exist on the payroll, replaced thus far by players making around the minimum or a crap-shoot lottery ticket like Harden).

 

If you consider equating the outright gutting of the team up the middle as a standard fleece-job, so be it.

 

If the Twins do nothing the remainder of the offseason, the 2013 payroll will be $80M. If you expected the payroll to be the same as last year, that means they have $20M left to spend.

[TheLeviathan]

Would you go to work for an outfit that offered you little chance of team success if you had an option? You already have more money than you will ever need regardless of where you sign. I think not.

 

The problem with this argument is that the pitcher they handed the most money to this offseason - by their own admission - took a lowball offer from the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

Torri Huntrer signed the second largest contract behind Alex Rodriguez. Had he signed the Twins offer he would have signed the second largest per year contract handed out. You had Morneau coming off a MVP season, Liriano pre Tommy John looked like he was going to be a dominant pitcher. . So in 2010 with no long term deals you have a choice between an MVP power hitter, potentially a staff ace, and an aging player. Hindsight is so easy.

Santana had publicly stated long before negotiations started that he wanted to play somewhere else. Had the Twins made a better trade you wouldn't be complaining. The Santana contract has them paying about8 million per WAR, way overpriced.

 

I wasn't complaining. I was just pointing out that the Twins were trying to sell to the public that they also couldn't "give their money away" to Hunter and Santana even though the money (and mostly the years) they were offering were not as much as the other teams were willing to give. I was simply providing past experience to support Brock's Ferrari analogy which, like it or not, is a very likely theory.

[Guest USAFChief]

It is a theory based on where people sign. There is plenty of evidence out there by watching where past players have signed. What do you have that proves it wrong in recent history?

 

On the one hand, you're using information made available about offers to Pujols and Hunter to prove FAs sign only with good teams. "Pujols turned down this, Hunter turned down that." Information made available...which is the only reason you know about it...these offers were rumored to have been made.

 

On the other hand, you're using a lack of information made available about Twins offers to FAs to prove we don't know they didn't make legitimate offers.

 

Sometimes--often times--the simplest explanation is the most logical:

 

The Twins haven't made any legitimate offers. That would explain why they haven't signed anyone. This explanation fits with their history, fits with their apparent goals, and explains why local or national baseball writers haven't linked the Twins to any legit pitchers.

 

Or, we could go with your theory: The Twins have made the best offer to numerous players/pitchers--all completely under the radar, unknown to any writer anywhere, all of which seem to know about other deals days in advance--but the conspiratorial SOBs just won't take their money.

[jokin]

If the Twins do nothing the remainder of the offseason, the 2013 payroll will be $80M. If you expected the payroll to be the same as last year, that means they have $20M left to spend.

 

Cot's has the Twins 2013 fixed payroll commitments at $64.3M for 9 players (w/o Blackburn counted - he's a non-roster player- who contributed zip in 2012 and is likely to do even less in 2013). Most of these above-minimum players received raises for 2013. Given the players I mentioned. plus Nishi's salary, all being gone, that is around $35M removed from last year's payroll number. The 16 players likely to fill out the 25 man roster will be making the minimum or a little more, which works out to less than $7M- so $71.3M is the operating number of actual rosterees to this point. No matter what payroll number was to be "expected" for 2013, the club in its haste to cut high dollar roster place holders, has taken a significant self-inflicted hit up the middle, with very little to show, in terms of competent replacements for 2013-4, for all of their machinations.

[Willihammer]

Why anyone would elect to live in Detroit for half the year over Chicago, or any other town in America for that matter, is proof enough for me that it is all about the money for most people. And, the Tigers have landed at least one top flight free agent for 4 straight offseasons (Damon, Valverde, VMart, Benoit, Fielder, Hunter, Sanchez).