Playoff tiebreaks

[chaderic20]

With three teams fighting for the division title, it seems quite possible there will be a tie for the division winner this year in the AL Central. With new tiebreaker rules this year, I thought it might be interesting to start tracking the tiebreakers. As a reminder, here are how ties will be broken this year per ESPN: "Tiebreaker games will be eliminated, with ties broken by head-to-head record, followed by better record within a team's division and record in the last 20 games within the division. If there is still a tie, the standard would be last 21 games within a division, then 22, etc."

 

Here's how things currently stand in the AL Central.

Twins

vs CLE: 4-3 (3 games remaining)

vs CHW: 4-2 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 13-13 (14 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 2-4 (14 games remaining)

 

Indians

vs MIN: 3-4 (3 games remaining)

vs CHW: 4-2 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 15-10 (15 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 4-1 (15 games remaining)

 

White Sox

vs MIN: 2-4 (4 games remaining)

vs CLE: 2-4 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 15-10 (15 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 2-3 (15 games remaining)

 

So, the Twins are in good shape right now as far as head-to-head, but are lagging in the overall division record and especially in the final 20 versus division.

[ashbury]

 

"Tiebreakers? Don't talk about tiebreakers! You kiddin' me? Tiebreakers? I just hope we keep winning games."

[chaderic20]

Update as of 9/10:

 

Twins (27-18 overall, 1 game behind CHW)

vs CLE: 4-3 (3 games remaining)

vs CHW: 4-2 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 17-14 (9 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 6-5 (9 games remaining)

 

Indians (26-17 overall, 1 game behind CHW)

vs MIN: 3-4 (3 games remaining)

vs CHW: 4-2 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 16-12 (12 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 5-3 (12 games remaining)

 

White Sox (26-17 overall, 1st)

vs MIN: 2-4 (4 games remaining)

vs CLE: 2-4 (4 games remaining)

vs DIV total: 19-10 (11 games remaining)

vs DIV final 20: 6-3 (11 games remaining)

 

This coming week is important for the Twins, with 3 games vs CLE and 4 at CHW.  Chicago has 4 vs MIN and 3 vs DET, while Cleveland has 1 vs KC, 3 at MIN, and 2 vs CHC.

[Trov]

This week will clear up a lot of things overall I think.  We will make playoffs.  Sure might be nice to be division winner to host 3 since we cannot seem to win on the road.  It will most likely be against whoever finishes third in this group. 

[mnfireman]

Seeding may not matter other than for being "assigned" home or away if MLB adapts the "playoff bubble" idea. Yes, the "home" team will still bat last, but all teams will be on the road and away from their families. Preparation and execution would move to the forefront, and "veteran presence" would be much more valued.

[chaderic20]

Last I've heard/read the first round will still be played entirely at the higher seed's home park. So, even if the rest of the playoffs are in a bubble, it will still be important to have that home field in the first round. Any slight advantage that can be gained the the crapshoot of a 3 game series will help.

[Number3]

Those wascally Tigers. Next 7 games should resolve a lot.

[twinfan]

How do the rules go in round 1? Will there be a man on second in the 10th inning? Will there be 7 inning doubleheaders? I haven't seen anything. While this topic is informative, the entire picture will change over the next week and beyond. I'm more concerned about the final 3 games vs the Reds. With the way teams are going now, my guess is it will be Chicago first, the Twins second and Cleveland 3rd. I would think it is more likely that 2 teams will finish tied for a position instead of all 3.

[howeda7]

Naturally, now that the Twins have moved into the 4 spot...the Yankees are now a half game out of the #5 spot. Ugh. 

[chaderic20]

One last update heading into the final week of the season:

 

Twins (33-22 overall, 2 games behind CHW)

vs CLE: 7-3

vs CHW: 5-5

vs DIV total: 21-17

vs DIV final 20: 10-8

Remaining games: 2 vs DET, 3 vs CIN

 

Indians (29-24 overall, 5 games behind CHW)

vs MIN: 3-7

vs CHW: 4-2

vs DIV total: 19-17

vs DIV final 20: 8-8

Remaining games: 4 vs CHW, 3 vs PIT

 

White Sox (34-19 overall, 1st)

vs MIN: 5-5

vs CLE: 2-4

vs DIV total: 25-11

vs DIV final 20: 12-4

Remaining games: 4 at CLE, 4 vs CHC

 

The Indians are all but mathematically eliminated from the division race, and it will be hard, but not impossible for the Twins to win the division. By splitting the season series with Chicago, if the division ends up tied between Chicago and Minnesota, Chicago would win the division based on the second tiebreaker, overall division record, by means of beating up on KC and DET throughout the year. So for the Twins to win the division, we need to outright beat Chicago for the title, which means making up 3 games, when we only have 5 left to play and Chicago 7 left to play.

[chaderic20]

For reference, assuming we end up second in the division, here's how we compare to the AL East and AL West second place teams, which are almost guaranteed to be NYY and HOU.  These three teams will be the 4-6 seeds in the playoffs.

 

Yankees (31-22 overall)

vs DIV total: 22-14

vs DIV final 20: 10-6

Remaining games: 4 at TOR, 3 vs MIA

 

Astros (27-26 overall)

vs DIV total: 17-16

vs DIV final 20: 4-9

Remaining games: 3 at SEA, 4 at TEX

 

The Astros will almost certainly be the 6 seed. So, unless we happen to catch the White Sox, we will play the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  The only question is whether it will be in Minnesota or New York. The Twins are currently 1 game up on the Yankees for the 4 seed, which currently gives us home field advantage in this series. The Twins are 21-5 at home so far this year and 12-17 on the road, while New York is 21-7 at home and 10-15 on the road. So both teams are clearly playing much better at home and so would prefer to have home field advantage.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, unless we happen to catch the White Sox, we will play the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.  The only question is whether it will be in Minnesota or New York. The Twins are currently 1 game up on the Yankees for the 4 seed, which currently gives us home field advantage in this series.

Worth watching the Yankees at Toronto (by way of Buffalo ) series beginning tonight. If the Yankees win 2 of those 4, they will also secure the divisional record tiebreaker over the Twins, regardless of how the Twins do vs Detroit. (Although if they really lose 2 to Toronto, we could ensure that we finish above them with a 4-1 finish ourselves, rendering the tiebreaker moot.)

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

White Sox lost to Cleveland and the Yankees are getting a drubbing from the Jays. Looking like a productive night off for the Twins.

[Aggies7]

If White Sox go 4-2 in their last 6 games, the twins cannot catch them. The twins are going to need to essentially win all 5 remaining games and have the Sox go 3-3. A 4-1 twins record would mean the Sox have to go 2-4 for the twins to overtake them. With 3 more against Cleveland and 3 with the cubs, it’s quite possible the White Sox split all 6 which would slightly leave the door open for the twins. Last Thursday’s loss was such a bad one, a 2 game swing.

[stringer bell]

 

If White Sox go 4-2 in their last 6 games, the twins cannot catch them. The twins are going to need to essentially win all 5 remaining games and have the Sox go 3-3. A 4-1 twins record would mean the Sox have to go 2-4 for the twins to overtake them. With 3 more against Cleveland and 3 with the cubs, it’s quite possible the White Sox split all 6 which would slightly leave the door open for the twins. Last Thursday’s loss was such a bad one, a 2 game swing.

Actually even more than a two-game swing considering the tiebreaker. If the Twins had won either of the close games (Monday or Thursday), they would be ahead by half a game and hold the tiebreaker advantage.

[Nine of twelve]

Taking tiebreakers into account, here's the translation into magic numbers.

 

The White Sox magic number over us: 4.

 

Our magic number over the Yankees: 5.

 

Our magic number over Cleveland: 3.

[Old Twins Cap]

Not hard to figure out for Twins:  Win, win, win, win at home or go to New York and try to win there after losing games they had to win.

 

Win at least four of five, Yanks lose a game or two, and we can stay home.

 

Thing about Chicago, a good team, but, they haven't been tested in a crucial situation and they are about to see how easy it is to win when they absolutely have to. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thing about Chicago, a good team, but, they haven't been tested in a crucial situation and they are about to see how easy it is to win when they absolutely have to. 

Thing is, not every other team -- even "tested" teams -- will win when they absolutely have to either (as fans of Cleveland, the Twins, etc. can attest to). And I don't think anyone is predicting the WS for the White Sox this year!

[Aggies7]

it's lopez vs bieber tonight...I wouldn't have thought we'd have a shot but you gotta like your chances. Just have to take care of business ourselves

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

it's lopez vs bieber tonight...I wouldn't have thought we'd have a shot but you gotta like your chances. Just have to take care of business ourselves

Not quite -- Cleveland has pushed back Bieber a day, to set him up for the postseason. Tonight is now a bullpen game for Cleveland, led by recent acquisition Cal Quantrill.

 

That does set up Giolito vs Bieber tomorrow though, and Keuchel vs Plesac on Thursday.

[Aggies7]

Not quite -- Cleveland has pushed back Bieber a day, to set him up for the postseason. Tonight is now a bullpen game for Cleveland, led by recent acquisition Cal Quantrill.

 

That does set up Giolito vs Bieber tomorrow though, and Keuchel vs Plesac on Thursday.

Ah, my newspaper lied to me

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ah, my newspaper lied to me

It was probably the truth when the newspaper went to print!

[stringer bell]

 

Taking tiebreakers into account, here's the translation into magic numbers.

 

The White Sox magic number over us: 4.

 

Our magic number over the Yankees: 5.

 

Our magic number over Cleveland: 3.

White Sox still have a magic number of 4 vs. Twins.

Twins magic number vs. Yankees is 4

Twins magic number vs. Cleveland is 2

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Indians beat the Sox today and tomorrow, they pull within one game of Chicago and hold the tiebreaker.

[ashbury]

White Sox still have a magic number of 4 vs. Twins.

The Twins have a magic number vs the White Sox, too. I believe it's 6.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Twins have a magic number vs the White Sox, too. I believe it's 6.

 

Since you posted this, the White Sox’ magic number has gone from 4 to 3, while the Twins’ magic number has gone from 6 to 2. (Perhaps this should be cross-posted in the Fun With Numbers thread?)