Coronavirus

[biggentleben]

 

I donned my N95 respirator and voted today.

No sticker



RIP I Voted Sticker

The Onion tweeted voters in Wisconsin received an "I voted" tombstone.

[Squirrel]

If someone posted this link already, sorry for being repetitive. I am well beyond saturation on this and don’t remember where all I saw what.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Squirrel]

Chicago’s preparations:

 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/time-lapse-watch-mccormick-place-transform-into-massive-alternate-care-facility/2251902/

[Brock Beauchamp]

the machine that makes snickers bars can’t make N95 masks or face shields. We’re missing yield and capability in this equation, in other words, time.

 

While 3M was scaling up masks in January and now 90 days later, doubled their output to 35 million per month world wide. They already knew how to make the masks and had the suppliers in place to make them.

 

Automakers know how to make filters, but not how to make PPE. They can learn from 3M or whoever but that takes time.

 

The DPA was just signed, it’ll take some time to train operators, find suppliers with capacity who will need to make capacity too, testing by the FDA and reengineer machines.

One critical point no one is talking about (on top of your very valid points) is our "direct-to-now" supply chain that views inventory as a critical evil of bloat.

 

Break a small part of that supply chain and it becomes pretty hard to supply more demand as needed or even to continue regular demand supply.

 

Massive distribution channels have spent decades priding themselves on how little static inventory they carry at any given time.

 

Normally, a good thing for shareholders. Right now, maybe not so awesome.

 

Inversely, the upside is that we’re far more scalable now than we ever have been in the past but the initial hit still hurt... a lot.

 

Better, earlier leadership could have prevented many problems in this situation.

[glunn]

I agree that better leadership would have made a big difference. But I don't trust the private sector to prepare us for cataclysms --  that is not in their nature. I think that is something that the federal government should handle, and that, for example, the government needs to stockpile for all foreseeable emergencies, and preferably in a cost-efficient manner. 

 

This could be a lot worse if the virus was more deadly, and I think that the government needs to get ready for something worse, because there are some crazy people out there who have tried to develop biological weapons and who may one day succeed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

One critical point no one is talking about (on top of your very valid points) is our "direct-to-now" supply chain that views inventory as a critical evil of bloat.

 

Break a small part of that supply chain and it becomes pretty hard to supply more demand as needed or even to continue regular demand supply.

 

Massive distribution channels have spent decades priding themselves on how little static inventory they carry at any given time.

 

Normally, a good thing for shareholders. Right now, maybe not so awesome.

 

Inversely, the upside is that we’re far more scalable now than we ever have been in the past but the initial hit still hurt... a lot.

 

Better, earlier leadership could have prevented many problems in this situation.

agreed, in 2002 our National Stockpile of PPE was 3X what it was in March 2020.

 

Safety stock (where practical) would have given the suppliers time to ramp up.

 

3M clearly had surge capacity already in place for an event such as this. It usually takes more than a year to build a machine and qualify it. To double their output in 90 days, they must have had machines mothballed to pull out of retirement.

 

As a professional supply chain manager, I can tell you that too high of inventory generally, impede’s your ability to be responsive, because you bump up against your inventory management thresholds too quickly when you need to make rapid recovery investments. Remember, this started as an isolated incident and not a world wide pandemic. This is where the National Stockpile of strategic inventory comes in. You shouldnt rely on business to look out for the public interest.

[ashbury]

One critical point no one is talking about (on top of your very valid points) is our "direct-to-now" supply chain that views inventory as a critical evil of bloat.

I worked in the field of mathematical optimization. One of the insights I learned, relatively far into my career, from the airlines, was that a fully optimized solution (crew scheduling and fleet scheduling, in their case) was a brittle solution. One snowstorm in Denver could affect the entire hub-and-spoke system. They learned to back off from the most optimized solutions, allowing a little slack, so as to make operations recovery easier.

 

You don't learn this, if you never experienced a snowstorm before. That's what we're going through here.

 

[Squirrel]

I worked in the field of mathematical optimization. One of the insights I learned, relatively far into my career, from the airlines, was that a fully optimized solution (crew scheduling and fleet scheduling, in their case) was a brittle solution. One snowstorm in Denver could affect the entire hub-and-spoke system. They learned to back off from the most optimized solutions, allowing a little slack, so as to make operations recovery easier.

 

You don't learn this, if you never experienced a snowstorm before. That's what we're going through here.

 

So, you’re saying somewhere in the middle is what we should have on hand, not gluttonous bloat, but not sparse inadequacy, just in case. (That’s my laymen’s, non-mathematical conclusion.)

[ashbury]

So, you’re saying somewhere in the middle is what we should have on hand, not gluttonous bloat, but not sparse inadequacy, just in case. (That’s my laymen’s, non-mathematical conclusion.)

Probably not "in the middle". Just not "to the last optimized penny". It's a judgement call. You run the optimization software under a variety of scenarios, and management has to decide where the pain point is just too great. Despite very elaborate mathematical modeling, there is no precise "equation" to follow. It's too hard to define a-priori what the true optimum will look like - or more to the point, there are multiple optimization criteria that sometimes conflict, which turns the hard data into mushy guesswork.

 

And, while I mentioned airlines as where I first understood this principle about brittleness, supply chain companies use this kind of software for their operations, which is why I spoke up when that was mentioned. I know for sure that Walmart has used mathematical optimization for a long time. I bet their computers are getting a good workout during this crisis, doing strategic studies.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Probably not "in the middle". Just not "to the last optimized penny". It's a judgement call. You run the optimization software under a variety of scenarios, and management has to decide where the pain point is just too great. Despite very elaborate mathematical modeling, there is no precise "equation" to follow. It's too hard to define a-priori what the true optimum will look like - or more to the point, there are multiple optimization criteria that sometimes conflict, which turns the hard data into mushy guesswork.

 

And, while I mentioned airlines as where I first understood this principle about brittleness, supply chain companies use this kind of software for their operations, which is why I spoke up when that was mentioned. I know for sure that Walmart has used mathematical optimization for a long time. I bet their computers are getting a good workout during this crisis, doing strategic studies.

 

The reality is that we can’t prepare for every scenario if the, you know, really hits the fan and demand jumps astronomically for a specific set of devices/equipment.

 

What we’re not paying enough attention to here is that this didn’t blindside us. Experts knew this was coming, at least in some capacity, 4-5 months ago.

 

And we did almost nothing. And I’m being generous by using “almost” in that sentence.

 

These orders to shift production should have come two months ago, which would massively lift the burden. Every day we didn’t act is two days lost to alleviate the supply chain problems we see right now.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The reality is that we can’t prepare for every scenario if the, you know, really hits the fan and demand jumps astronomically for a specific set of devices/equipment.

 

What we’re not paying enough attention to here is that this didn’t blindside us. Experts knew this was coming, at least in some capacity, 4-5 months ago.

 

And we did almost nothing. And I’m being generous by using “almost” in that sentence.

 

These orders to shift production should have come two months ago, which would massively lift the burden. Every day we didn’t act is two days lost to alleviate the supply chain problems we see right now.

January 21 was the first confirmed case in the US. Jan 23 US had additional confirmed cases, and Jan 30 the WHO declared a global health emergency. Certainly by Feb 1 the DPA should have been declared.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html

[Squirrel]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/828091467/why-some-covid-19-patients-crash-the-bodys-immune-system-might-be-to-blame

 

My niece’s company is working on a drug to alleviate these Cytokine storms. They got FDA approval and are set to go to trials this week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Influenza kills an average of 35,000 Americans a year based on CDC data during the seven most recent years of tracking (excluding very recent projection years that do not yet have hard data).

 

Coronavirus has killed close to 8,000 Americans in the past four days.

 

I never want to hear people mention "it's the same as the flu" ever again in my life and they better not do it on this forum.

[Squirrel]

And a lot of deaths aren’t being attributed to Coronavirus, either. If someone dies before testing is confirmed, or before they’ve not even had a test, they are never confirmed and their deaths are officially attributed to unknown or unclassified.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Influenza kills an average of 35,000 Americans a year based on CDC data during the seven most recent years of tracking (excluding very recent projection years that do not yet have hard data).

 

Coronavirus has killed close to 8,000 Americans in the past four days.

 

I never want to hear people mention "it's the same as the flu" ever again in my life and they better not do it on this forum.

A helpful reference

 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

[Craig Arko]

The Ethics, including some links to papers with the math, used as supporting evidence.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-moral-philosophy-to-the-test

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html

[ashbury]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country
 

 

 

If we think we're a some kind of peak and it will come down and we can get back to normal, look at countries who got hit earlier (Italy looks similar), and strap in because it's likely to be a long ride. And this is with social distancing in place.

 

 

[Squirrel]

The Ethics, including some links to papers with the math, used as supporting evidence.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/coronavirus-pandemic-puts-moral-philosophy-to-the-test

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/magazine/coronavirus-economy-debate.html

I really enjoyed the Bloomberg piece. Was very thought provoking. And interesting. Thank you.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The reality is that we can’t prepare for every scenario if the, you know, really hits the fan and demand jumps astronomically for a specific set of devices/equipment.

 

What we’re not paying enough attention to here is that this didn’t blindside us. Experts knew this was coming, at least in some capacity, 4-5 months ago.

 

And we did almost nothing. And I’m being generous by using “almost” in that sentence.

 

These orders to shift production should have come two months ago, which would massively lift the burden. Every day we didn’t act is two days lost to alleviate the supply chain problems we see right now.

Red Dawn email thread is fascinating

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html#click=https://t.co/5NWdk5TQCo

Dr James Lawler teaches at U of Nebraska and served under Obama and Bush

[Brock Beauchamp]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country

 

Coronavirus_deaths.jpg

 

Coronavirus_deaths_spain.jpg

 

If we think we're a some kind of peak and it will come down and we can get back to normal, look at countries who got hit earlier (Italy looks similar), and strap in because it's likely to be a long ride. And this is with social distancing in place.

Yeah, most health agencies seem to be getting the tail of the graph woefully wrong. It will likely be a slow burn down, one that extends well into the summer.

[Craig Arko]

A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/

[Squirrel]

Yeah, most health agencies seem to be getting the tail of the graph woefully wrong. It will likely be a slow burn down, one that extends well into the summer.

And with Japan getting a second wave .... wonder what the thinking will be elsewhere on this as to when we will see nans lifted.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti

[twinsnorth49]

And with Japan getting a second wave .... wonder what the thinking will be elsewhere on this as to when we will see nans lifted.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti

Every situation isn’t the same, to draw any parallels you would have to examine a number of variables.

[Squirrel]

Every situation isn’t the same, to draw any parallels you would have to examine a number of variables.

Of course not ... why I used the word ‘wonder’, as in a lot to look at yet.

 

Will the potential for a second wave keep us locked down longer, or will we be better prepared when it does hit? A lot to wonder about. Just throwing it out there.

[Craig Arko]

Sounds like Minnesota is still at least 2-3 months away from the (first) peak.

 

https://www.startribune.com/no-covid-19-peak-yet-in-minnesota/569628222/

[MMMordabito]

Hmmm ... Contact tracing looks like a good reason to "forget" your phone a lot.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Of course not ... why I used the word ‘wonder’, as in a lot to look at yet.

Will the potential for a second wave keep us locked down longer, or will we be better prepared when it does hit? A lot to wonder about. Just throwing it out there.

Your throwing it out there was not misplaced, as this evidently happened.* And really, his post was the captain obvious caveat for any kind of comparison, such that it should probably be left unsaid, for fear of seeming fastidious. 

 

*yes, one or the other test could be a result of a false positive. But the patient was hospitalized the first time around, and has developed pronounced symptoms consistent with Covid-19 the second time around.

Edited April 15, 2020 by PseudoSABR

[Craig Arko]

Recommendations from the World Health Organization on what needs to happen before ending a lockdown.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/15/834021103/who-sets-6-conditions-for-ending-a-coronavirus-lockdown

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Recommendations from the World Helath Organization on what needs to happen before ending a lockdown.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/15/834021103/who-sets-6-conditions-for-ending-a-coronavirus-lockdown

Nothing about educating the public on how the disease is transmitted.

 

Maybe the WHO will revise their recommendations and send out an updated list soon.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Latest treatment idea: flip patients face down, on their bellies.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-prone-positioning/index.html