Coronavirus

Squirrel · March 20, 2020

I just learned that Los Angeles is instituting a stay at home order effective at midnight, with a 24 hour grace period for small businesses to transition. People will still be able to go to the grocery store or to pick up takeout food from restaurants.

I also spoke with a client in the pharma business, and if he is correct then this could get very bad.

Please be careful out there fellow Twins fans.

My niece also works in small pharma. She has been saying this for weeks. Human trials are just beginning for a vaccine and that will take a year.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

https://covidtracking.com/data/

(Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average)

March 20:

United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up)

New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up)

Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down)

California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up)

Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down)

Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down)

Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up)

Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up)

New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up)

North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up)

Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up)

Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up)

Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up)

Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down)

Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down)

Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up)

Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up)

Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up)

Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting.

I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not.

We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come.

Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case?country=AUT+BEL+CAN+CZE+DNK+EST+FIN+FRA+DEU+GRC+ISL+IRL+ITA+LUX+MEX+NLD+NOR+PAN+POL+PRT+ROU+RUS+SMR+SVK+SVN+ESP+SWE+CHE+GBR+USA

One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down.

Stay away from each other.

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March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert.

National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down)

Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down)

New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down)

California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up)

Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up)

New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down)

Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down)

Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up)

Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up)

Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down)

North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time)

Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down)

Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up)

Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up)

Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down)

Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 10:25 ET March 18th

5,993 Positive

50597 Negative

United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive

States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS

Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests)

California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests)

New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests)

Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests)

Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests)

New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests)

Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests)

Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests)

Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests)

Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests)

Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests)

Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests)

Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests)

Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

biggentleben · March 20, 2020

Test kits arriving at a private lab in SD rather than the state lab is just yet another example of the issues since day one in the response...

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

It stands to reason that the larger cities with larger population will produce the most confirmed cases.

However, there are a couple of low population county hot spots.

Small sample low population Hot Spots.

Eagle County Colorado (Vail) - 51 Cases - Population 51,000 - Largest City - Eagle 6,000

Kershaw County South Carolina - 29 Cases - Population 61,000 - Largest City - Camden 6,000

Summit County Utah - 26 Cases - Population 36,000 - Largest City - Park City 7,000

2 of the 3 are Tourist destinations for Skiing.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

Test kits arriving at a private lab in SD rather than the state lab is just yet another example of the issues since day one in the response...

The lack of testing, the slow start in testing, delays in results, just plain ole' issues have made it harder to get ahead of this thing and will deepen and lengthen the economic and health impact.

We got out of work people now. Some of them could be quickly trained to read and input test results.

Test Test Test.

Craig Arko · March 20, 2020

The lack of testing, the slow start in testing, delays in results, just plain ole' issues have made it harder to get ahead of this thing and will deepen and lengthen the economic and health impact.

We got out of work people now. Some of them could be quickly trained to read and input test results.

Test Test Test.

You can't read and input test results if the test kits aren't available.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

You can't read and input test results if the test kits aren't available.

Agreed but as the "Reported" stats are clearly increasing in the past couple of days. It shows that they are starting to get out there and we still need a much much much larger sample. We need random sampling of the entire population.

I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination.

However, it stands to reason. More tests being done will require more people to handle the test results. There are long delays in the results in some locations while other places get the results back quickly.

If we are low on tests and we are painfully low... I can only assume that we are low on the amount of people who do this sort of work.

If testing is increasing and it is... we need more people to handle the influx. We've got to quickly train because I also assume the current infrastructure wasn't set up for this type of volume.

We got work to do.

Squirrel · March 20, 2020

Part of me wants to run out, contract it, and hopefully self-immunize. I’m healthy ... rarely get sick other than the occasional allergies and the more occasional cold, never had the flue, am up on my vaccines and immunizations. I’d then feel better about being here with my Mom if I could have done this ahead of time. But then, yeah, be careful what you wish for. I would either likely be the one who contracts it a second time (although they haven’t definitely concluded if you can get it again despite that one possible case), or despite my healthy system, get it bad and die

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

Part of me wants to run out, contract it, and hopefully self-immunize. I’m healthy ... rarely get sick other than the occasional allergies and the more occasional cold, never had the flue, am up on my vaccines and immunizations. I’d then feel better about being here with my Mom if I could have done this ahead of time. But then, yeah, be careful what you wish for. I would either likely be the one who contracts it a second time (although they haven’t definitely concluded if you can get it again despite that one possible case), or despite my healthy system, get it bad and die

My guess is getting it earlier or later would be preferable to getting during the upcoming crunch.

However, right now, at this very moment in time. In my opinion, getting it is less important than not spreading it.

Squirrel · March 20, 2020

My guess is getting it earlier or later would be preferable to getting during the upcoming crunch.

However, right now, at this very moment in time. In my opinion, getting it is less important than not spreading it.

Well, yeah, which is why I said ‘if I could have done this ahead of time.’ I certainly won’t and can’t now since I’m basically staying here. And, it’s a little too late because I think we are already in a critical state where hospital beds are needed and it would be selfish of me to occupy one so intentionally. But, at this stage I feel our actions are necessary reactions because of where we are in this. It’s too late to be genuinely pro-active. If I had known what I know today a month ago, I’d have gotten it then and self isolated then, in order to better tend to family and others. Right now I’m just worrying myself sick that I am somehow asymptomatic and giving it to my 90 yr old mother.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

Right now I’m just worrying myself sick that I am somehow asymptomatic and giving it to my 90 yr old mother.

I completely understand.

I don't like the worrying yourself sick part but I believe if everyone made future decisions like they actually have it, regardless if they do. That is the best way to help every single person as we hope to slow the spread.

So... in a twisted way. Maybe that fear is a good thing.

glunn · March 20, 2020

My niece also works in small pharma. She has been saying this for weeks. Human trials are just beginning for a vaccine and that will take a year.

I still believe that our best chance for salvation is treatments using existing antiviral medications, not a vaccine.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

I still believe that our best chance for salvation is treatments using existing antiviral medications, not a vaccine.

Best case scenario.

Something that has already gone through clinical trials for something else that can be re-purposed and effective with Covid-19.

We got lucky with the accidental discovery of Penicillin. Maybe we can get lucky today.

Squirrel · March 20, 2020

I still believe that our best chance for salvation is treatments using existing antiviral medications, not a vaccine.

There’s always that hope but I read something on this the other day that there still is a time factor to trials, especially combining existing drugs. And it still won’t be something we take in prevention, but in hopefully helping in the survival rate in easing symptoms, especially in the most severe cases.

Riverbrian · March 20, 2020

https://covidtracking.com/data/

Most of the numbers for today are in: So I'm updating

March 20

United States: 135,185 Tests - 17,038 Positive - 1 out of 7.93 (Up)

New York: 32,427 Tests - 7102 Positive - 1 out of 4.56 (Up)

Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Flat - No New Tests Reported)

California: 11,487 Tests - 1063 Positive - 1 out of 10.80 (Down)

Texas: 5277 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 27.20 (Way Down)

Illinois: 4286 Tests - 590 Positive - 1 out of 5.00 (Up)

Massachusetts: 4091 Tests - 413 Positive - 1 out of 9.92 (Down)

Minnesota: 3856 Tests - 115 Positive - 1 out of 33.53 (Up)

Wisconsin: 3661 Tests - 206 Positive - 1 out of 17.77 (Down)

North Carolina: 3233 Tests - 137 Positive - 1 out of 23.59 (Up)

Colorado: 2952 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.65 (Flat - Just 10 new tests)

Pennsylvania: 2842 Tests - 268 Positive - 1 out of 10.60 (Down)

Michigan: 2618 Tests - 549 Positive - 1 out of 4.76 (Way Up)

Florida: 2390 Tests - 520 Positive - 1 out of 4.59 (Up)

Georgia: 2386 Tests - 420 Positive - 1 out of 5.68 (Up)

Virginia: 2325 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 20.39 (Flat)

Maine: 2321 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 40.71 (Down)

Utah: 2147 Tests - 112 Positive - 1 out of 19.16 (Up)

Oregon: 2117 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 18.57 (Down)

Nevada: 2101 Tests - 109 Positive - 1 out of 19.27 (Down)

New Jersey: 1154 Tests - 1 out of 1.29 (First Time over 1,000 Tests)

Louisiana: 1087 Tests - 479 Positive - 1 out of 2.26 (First time over 1,000 Tests)

A couple of heavy weight additions in New Jersey and Louisiana. They both seem too high to believe. Grain of Salt.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average)

March 20:

United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up)

New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up)

Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down)

California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up)

Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down)

Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down)

Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up)

Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up)

New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up)

North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up)

Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up)

Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up)

Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up)

Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down)

Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down)

Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up)

Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up)

Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up)

Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting.

I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not.

We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come.

Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison.

https://ourworldinda...SWE CHE GBR USA

One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down.

Stay away from each other.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert.

National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down)

Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down)

New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down)

California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up)

Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up)

New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down)

Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down)

Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up)

Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up)

Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down)

North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time)

Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down)

Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up)

Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up)

Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down)

Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 10:25 ET March 18th

5,993 Positive

50597 Negative

United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive

States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS

Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests)

California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests)

New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests)

Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests)

Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests)

New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests)

Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests)

Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests)

Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests)

Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests)

Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests)

Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests)

Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests)

Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

Squirrel · March 20, 2020

Starting tomorrow at 5pm, IL has a shelter at home order in place until Apr. 7

Craig Arko · March 21, 2020

Test, test, test.

ashbury · March 21, 2020

Is it reasonable to expect billions of test kits to be available in the course of the coming month? One clean test doesn't mean you couldn't get infected tomorrow, so you need to keep re-testing and re-testing. And this is a country of 1/3 of a billion people, so the numbers add up.

Also do we know the accuracy of these tests? False positives are disruptive; false negatives can have fatal implications. More than a percent or so, in either direction, and it has further effect on how many test kits are urgently needed.

PseudoSABR · March 21, 2020

Nearly 800 more deaths in Italy, and 7000 new cases.

Here's another tracker that seems to be watching broadcast and local news for reports, so it's ahead of the curve.

Riverbrian · March 22, 2020

Is it reasonable to expect billions of test kits to be available in the course of the coming month? One clean test doesn't mean you couldn't get infected tomorrow, so you need to keep re-testing and re-testing. And this is a country of 1/3 of a billion people, so the numbers add up.

Also do we know the accuracy of these tests? False positives are disruptive; false negatives can have fatal implications. More than a percent or so, in either direction, and it has further effect on how many test kits are urgently needed.

The epidemiologists are all screaming for tests. I'll scream with them.

Riverbrian · March 22, 2020

https://covidtracking.com/data/

March 21

United States: 179,220 Tests - 23,203 Positive - 1 out of 7.72 (Up)

New York: 45,437 Tests - 10,356 Positive - 1 out of 4.38 (Sadly Up)

Washington: 23,243 - 1524 Positive - 1 out of 15.25 (Down - Has gone down each day - Encouraging)

California: 12,528 Tests - 1279 Positive - 1 out of 9.79 (Up)

Florida: 7237 Tests - 658 Positive - 1 out of 10.99 (Way Down)

Texas: 6522 Tests - 304 Positive - 1 out of 21.45 (Up)

Illinois: 6247 Tests - 759 Positive - 1 out of 8.23 (Way Down)

Massachusetts: 5277 Tests - 525 Positive - 1 out of 10.05 (Down)

North Carolina: 5276 Tests - 184 Positive - 1 out of 28.67 (Down)

Wisconsin: 4967 Tests - 281 Positive - 1 out of 17.67 (Flat)

Pennsylvania: 4137 Tests - 371 Positive - 1 out of 11.15 (Down)

Minnesota: 4090 Tests - 138 Positive - 1 out of 29.63 (Up)

New Mexico: 3828 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 67.15 (Up)

Colorado: 3680 Tests - 363 Positive - 1 out of 9.60 (Up)

Tennessee: 3643 Tests - 371 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (First time over 1000 tests)

Georgia 3064 Tests - 507 Positive - 1 out of 6.04 (Down)

Michigan: 2856 Tests - 787 Positive - 1 out of 3.62 (Way Up - 286 New Tests all Positives were added)

Virginia: 2790 Tests - 152 Positive - 1 out of 18.35 (Up)

Louisiana: 2765 Tests - 585 Positive - 1 out of 4.72 (Down)

Utah: 2560 Tests - 136 Positive - 1 out of 18.82 (Up)

Oregon: 2550 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 22.36 (Down)

Nevada: 2508 Tests - 124 Positive - 1 out of 20.22 (Down)

Maine: 2337 Tests - 73 Positive - 1 out of 32.01 (Up - 16 new tests reported all positive)

Connecticut: 2300 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 11.85 (First time over 1000 tests-test number is a guess)

New Jersey: 1621 Tests - 1327 Positive - 1 out of 1.22 (Up - State isn't reporting all negatives)

South Carolina: 1407 Tests - 152 Positive - 1 out of 9.52 (First time over 1000 tests)

North Dakota: 1169 Tests - 28 Positive - 1 out of 41.75 (First Time over 1000 tests)

Montana: 1166 Tests - 20 Positive - 1 out of 58.3 (First time over 1000 tests)

Iowa: 1117 Tests - 68 Positive - 1 out of 16.42 (First time over 1000 tests)

New Hampshire: 1028 Tests - 55 Positive - 1 out of 18.69 (First time over 1000 tests)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most of the numbers for today are in: So I'm updating

March 20

United States: 135,185 Tests - 17,038 Positive - 1 out of 7.93 (Up)

New York: 32,427 Tests - 7102 Positive - 1 out of 4.56 (Up)

Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Flat - No New Tests Reported)

California: 11,487 Tests - 1063 Positive - 1 out of 10.80 (Down)

Texas: 5277 Tests - 194 Positive - 1 out of 27.20 (Way Down)

Illinois: 4286 Tests - 590 Positive - 1 out of 5.00 (Up)

Massachusetts: 4091 Tests - 413 Positive - 1 out of 9.92 (Down)

Minnesota: 3856 Tests - 115 Positive - 1 out of 33.53 (Up)

Wisconsin: 3661 Tests - 206 Positive - 1 out of 17.77 (Down)

North Carolina: 3233 Tests - 137 Positive - 1 out of 23.59 (Up)

Colorado: 2952 Tests - 277 Positive -1 out of 10.65 (Flat - Just 10 new tests)

Pennsylvania: 2842 Tests - 268 Positive - 1 out of 10.60 (Down)

Michigan: 2618 Tests - 549 Positive - 1 out of 4.76 (Way Up)

Florida: 2390 Tests - 520 Positive - 1 out of 4.59 (Up)

Georgia: 2386 Tests - 420 Positive - 1 out of 5.68 (Up)

Virginia: 2325 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 20.39 (Flat)

Maine: 2321 Tests - 57 Positive - 1 out of 40.71 (Down)

Utah: 2147 Tests - 112 Positive - 1 out of 19.16 (Up)

Oregon: 2117 Tests - 114 Positive - 1 out of 18.57 (Down)

Nevada: 2101 Tests - 109 Positive - 1 out of 19.27 (Down)

New Jersey: 1154 Tests - 1 out of 1.29 (First Time over 1,000 Tests)

Louisiana: 1087 Tests - 479 Positive - 1 out of 2.26 (First time over 1,000 Tests)

A couple of heavy weight additions in New Jersey and Louisiana. They both seem too high to believe. Grain of Salt.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Up/Down from the day before) (Bold - Above National Average)

March 20:

United States: 108,143 Tests - 12,397 Positive - 1 out of 8.72 (Up)

New York: 22,284 Tests - 4152 Positive - 1 out of 5.36 (Up)

Washington: 20,712 Tests - 1376 Positive - 1 out of 15.05 (Down)

California: 9845 Tests - 1058 Positive - 1 out of 9.30 (Up)

Illinois: 3151 Tests - 426 Tests - 1 out of 7.39 (Down)

Massachusetts: 3132 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 9.54 (Down)

Minnesota: 3038 Tests - 89 Positive - 1 out of 34.13 (Up)

Colorado: 2942 Tests - 277 Positive - 1 out of 10.62 (Up)

New Mexico: 2797 Tests - 35 Positive - 1 out of 79.91 (Up)

North Carolina: 2505 Tests - 97 Positive - 1 out of 25.82 (Up)

Michigan: 2447 Tests - 334 Positive - 1 out of 7.32 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Wisconsin: 2347 Tests - 155 Positive - 1 out of 15.14 (Up)

Texas: 2335 Tests - 143 Positive - 1 out of 16.32 (Up)

Florida: 2128 Tests - 432 Positive - 1 out of 4.92 (Up)

Maine: 2057 Tests - 53 Positive - 1 out of 38.81(Down)

Virginia 1923 Tests - 94 Positive - 1 out of 20.45 (Down)

Georgia: 1831 Tests - 287 Positive - 1 out of 6.37 (Up)

Pennsylvania: 1793 - 185 Positive - 1 out of 9.69 (Up)

Nevada: 1721 Tests - 95 Positive - 1 out of 18.11(First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Utah: 1526 Tests - 78 Positive - 1 out of 19.56 (First Time Above 1,000 Tests)

Oregon: 1417 Tests - 88 Positive - 1 out of 16.10 (Up)

Testing continues to increase. Despite the increase in testing, most states showed an increase in positive percentage in the tests taken. Michigan debuts with over 1,000 tests for the first time and is immediately placed in Hot Spot territory. New York has the most cases but Florida has the worst percentage which suggests to me that with more testing... Florida could look worse than New York. If you click on the link and check the states below 1,000 Tests, the small sample size percentages in New Jersey look real scary. Louisana, Tennesee, Ohio, Maryland, Deleware, Connecticut, Arizona and Alabama have high percentages but I'm hoping that it's just bad reporting.

I'd like to see Stoastic Testing started ASAP. Random tests sent out that people can test at home and report the results. Regardless if they have symptoms or not.

We won't know if our social distancing attempts are helping for a couple of weeks (probably longer). Watch Italy for clues since they are a potential preview of things to come.

Check out this website from the WHO for trajectory comparison.

https://ourworldinda...SWE CHE GBR USA

One encouraging trend is the state of Washington. First state to get hit and the percentage of positives trending down.

Stay away from each other.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert.

National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down)

Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down)

New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down)

California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up)

Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up)

New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down)

Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down)

Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up)

Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up)

Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down)

North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time)

Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down)

Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up)

Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up)

Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down)

Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 10:25 ET March 18th

5,993 Positive

50597 Negative

United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive

States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS

Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests)

California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests)

New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests)

Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests)

Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests)

New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests)

Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests)

Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests)

Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests)

Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests)

Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests)

Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests)

Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests)

Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

Squirrel · March 22, 2020

Illinois started their ‘shelter at home’ mandate today through Apr. 7. I’m looking at work being shut down now until mid-May, although that’s not official yet.

In Florida, now that the spring breakers had their beaches, bars and restaurants taken away, hopefully they will maybe go home. Many snowbirds decided to go home early, particularly those from Canada. The ones from Canada were told to get home by the govt there, as their insurance may not cover them here. Stringer got out of there just in time. The roads north ... hotels are full, no restaurants are open except drive throughs, and rest stops are crowded with lots of trucks and RVs. But many of the gated communities here have put their own rules in place. In my Mom’s community, everything is shut down ... no pools, no tennis, no bocce, no golf, all events and activities cancelled, the clubhouse and restaurant is closed, except for take out delivery only, the tiki bar is closed. Basically, all public spaces are locked or blocked off. They even went so far as to lower the nets on the tennis court and wrap them up, lest anyone get any ideas to play anyway. When I take my daily walks around the lakes, it’s quiet with few people out. Despite no mandate, people are basically sheltering at home. It feels like summer time in Florida. I’ll be here with my Mom for the duration. Well, until I need to go back to work.

Riverbrian · March 22, 2020

This story leaves me speechless.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

Squirrel · March 22, 2020

This story leaves me speechless.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

I have plenty to say about this, about the entirety of this, and how the worst could have perhaps been prevented if we had put a National plan in place back in January when we received word about this. Back then we could have put into place what SKorea had done and beefed up hospitals and supplies. We knew back then and nothing was done. It was downplayed, called a hoax, to keep the markets stronger for a little while longer. Not testing keeps the numbers down. And even now, there still is no national plan in place, it’s each state for themselves. But saying more turns this into a political discussion. I’m exhausted running between worry, anger and resignation and back. We are all at the mercy of politicians who have roadblocked much on a national level. I mean Elon Musk has offered to turn one of his factories into building respirators ... has that happened yet? We delayed testing because it was decided we needed to produce ‘our own’ test kits instead of getting started using what was available to us until our own were ready to go. And still, we don’t have enough and results are slow. We have been behind on this the entire way because ... our leadership delayed and downplayed for a month, losing precious time. Anyway, I’ve said too much. I’m not speechless ... this just isn’t the platform to say what I want and what I think. All we can do now is watch the numbers climb and do our part to quarantine. And I don’t think we will be able to do large group activities again until we are immunized, either through having had it, or a vaccine. Given that, I may be out of work for some time. And a vaccine is a year away. All we can hope for is slowing the curve so our medical system can survive, but it’s already at its limits. Or maybe some of the anti-viral drugs already available can help alleviate symptoms.

Riverbrian · March 22, 2020

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-vs-confirmed-cases-covid-19

Data tracking the number of tests world wide.

Squirrel · March 22, 2020

Very good video, featuring the chief infectious epidemiologist at the U of Chicago hospitals. Sobering, yet hopeful, yet firm ... we need to just stay home! To buy us time.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-videos-home/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hits-home-across-the-country/2241880/?fbclid=IwAR3ooIiCz0SF2cULI2RU10CFp-UKk5IXNsuVfO1X41kRRDUAoEB2frOf2BA

akmanak · March 22, 2020

The current government completely dropped the ball on this. It costed us trillions of dollars and who knows how much more in the long run .

Our egos got the best of us and it will cost use dearly. How about making America healthy again? How about making America believe in the government again?

What a joke . We are headed to a national shut down and our summer is now in jeopardy because we elected a bratty teenager into office . God help us all.

Richie the Rally Goat · March 23, 2020

Not done by the end of summer, per U of MN

https://www.twincities.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-umn-infectious-disease-expert-coronavirus-not-going-to-be-over-with-by-the-end-of-the-summer/

Riverbrian · March 23, 2020

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-testing-us-strategy-asymptomatic-rand-paul-ae8a58dd-9b44-49a0-a3f5-05346260e0c3.html

stringer bell · March 23, 2020

The current government completely dropped the ball on this. It costed us trillions of dollars and who knows how much more in the long run .

Our egos got the best of us and it will cost use dearly. How about making America healthy again? How about making America believe in the government again?

What a joke . We are headed to a national shut down and our summer is now in jeopardy because we elected a bratty teenager into office . God help us all.

Moderator note: We at Twins Daily have attempted to keep divisive discussions on politics out of the forums for several months. At the time, it detracted from our principal topic--Twins Baseball.

Much has changed in the last month. There will be no baseball for the forseeable future and COVID-19 (coronavirus) is the topic of discussion everywhere, including here at TD. Since the response to the virus is completely enmeshed in politics, we have decided to allow some latitude in this thread and any others that cover the virus. We continue to have a policy of treating our fellow posters and the people we are referring to in these threads with respect--no name-calling or demeaning terms. Thanks.

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