Getting $10M better than getting a solid prospect?

[Dman]

 

What is a "solid prospect" exactly?

 

It is likely an oxymoron but in my mind it could be someone at AA or AAA who has a few above average tools and a good production record as they climbed the system.  It could also be a young player in A ball with several above average tools that projects well and isn't subject to Rule V right away.  There are many ways you could you slice it but those are a couple of ways.

 

Prospect by definition probably can't be "solid" because we all know so many of them fail to make it or make much of a difference in MLB.  I think it is short hand for looking for guys with good to great upside, IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Maeda's contract was pretty well known for the bonus structure. There is no way the front office would assume he would only cost a base salary. Your guess is not educated.

Of course the FO knew exactly how the contract was structured.

I pretty clearly said ownership, not front office.

[Mr. Brooks]

They included the draft pick because both the Red Soxs and Dodgers didn't think Graterol was enough for Maeda. Instead of offering another top prospect, they offered the pick. The Dodgers offered money instead of additional prospects.

 

Do you think the Twins should have walked away from the deal because they got money instead of a additional prospect? They do need to draft and develop players but also can't hold all the prospects. They do need to make them available if they want to make trades.

Why did the Dodgers have to send $10M if the draft pick was intended to make up the difference between Maeda and Graterol?

 

Your theory is that the Dodgers said the cost for Maeda is Graterol plus a draft pick, but then the Dodgers just randomly for no reason decided to send us $10M?

 

That makes no sense. I think it's pretty clear that the $10M was for the draft pick and Raley.

[Mr. Brooks]

They included the draft pick because both the Red Soxs and Dodgers didn't think Graterol was enough for Maeda. Instead of offering another top prospect, they offered the pick. The Dodgers offered money instead of additional prospects.

 

Do you think the Twins should have walked away from the deal because they got money instead of a additional prospect? They do need to draft and develop players but also can't hold all the prospects. They do need to make them available if they want to make trades.

Trades, yes. I have zero problem sending out prospects or picks for players.

It's selling them for cash that i have a problem with.

 

Actually, it's not even a problem.

This is SOP for this ownership, and I long ago accepted that. I was merely pointing out my frustration for thinking maybe this year would be different. It's a "shame on me" frustration, I should have known better by now.

[old nurse]

 

Of course the FO knew exactly how the contract was structured.
I pretty clearly said ownership, not front office.

That makes less sense for your reasoning as the ownership would make decisions based on the front office knowledge and research, not independent of it. Even doing their own research one would easily come up with the contract details.

[old nurse]

 

 

Trades, yes. I have zero problem sending out prospects or picks for players.
It's selling them for cash that i have a problem with.

Actually, it's not even a problem.
This is SOP for this ownership, and I long ago accepted that. I was merely pointing out my frustration for thinking maybe this year would be different. It's a "shame on me" frustration, I should have known better by now.

Accepting something and being frustrated by it is incongruent

[old nurse]

 

 

Why did the Dodgers have to send $10M if the draft pick was intended to make up the difference between Maeda and Graterol?

Your theory is that the Dodgers said the cost for Maeda is Graterol plus a draft pick, but then the Dodgers just randomly for no reason decided to send us $10M?

That makes no sense. I think it's pretty clear that the $10M was for the draft pick and Raley.

One has to remember that the initial Graterol trade Graterol alone was Boston's choice, not the Dodgers. In trades where they can't settle on on a player cash has been exchanged.  In the quite a few days renegotiating the trade they couldn't agree on the prospects coming back. The Twins FO threw out a number they thought was high and they came up with this number.  10 times the value of the cash value of what the pick is slotted for. The problem with that theory is that it undervalues Raley as a throw in. Raley is on the 40 man roster of the Dodgers. That is not throw in value for a WS contending team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One has to remember that the initial Graterol trade Graterol alone was Boston's choice, not the Dodgers. In trades where they can't settle on on a player cash has been exchanged. In the quite a few days renegotiating the trade they couldn't agree on the prospects coming back. The Twins FO threw out a number they thought was high and they came up with this number. 10 times the value of the cash value of what the pick is slotted for. The problem with that theory is that it undervalues Raley as a throw in. Raley is on the 40 man roster of the Dodgers. That is not throw in value for a WS contending team.

How does everyone keep leaving Camargo out of the deal? To the Twins (and likely Dodgers, too), his value is similar to Raley if only because of positional scarcity and the fact he’s nowhere near the 40-man roster.

[Dman]

 

How does everyone keep leaving Camargo out of the deal? To the Twins (and likely Dodgers, too), his value is similar to Raley if only because of positional scarcity and the fact he’s nowhere near the 40-man roster.

 

It is just hard to get excited about Camargo and his recent 642 OPS.  Guy seems to have some serious holes in his swing.  He can sting the ball like a major league player right now but if he rarely hits it then he'll never make it.  Yeah he is only 20 and from what I understand he started the year out hot so maybe an injury dropped his performance but looking back at his stats this kind of feels like who he is.  Also his defense at catcher isn't great either.  Guy looks like a reclamation project and he is Rule V eligible this next year so lets say he does have a great year then they have to worry about protecting him right away.  I fail to see the awesome upside.

 

Raley on the other hand is essentially ready to contribute right now. Granted he has his warts especially OBP but he looks like a near lock to contribute at the MLB level in some manner.  There is still risk that he could end up AAAA but I think he will turn out.  I don't see star potential there but at least 4th outfielder potential. I get that given the players in our system there is no spot for Raley and freeing up that 40 man spot has value for us as there will be interesting guys that get cut after spring training but to me it feels like Raley is more likely to make it to MLB than Camargo.

 

To your point though the guys that do this for a living seem to see pretty equal value for these guys from a prospect perspective.  I think FanGraphs had both of them at 35+ FV so those that felt that was the swap might be correct.  Being a Stat\numbers watcher Camargo feels more like a throw in than someone to dream on.  But hey what do I know I thought Jeffers was a horrible draft pick too.  All I am saying is that right now today it is hard to get excited about the guy so I can see why people are overlooking him.

[howieramone2]

Few teams consistently do as well as we do in IFA. My thought was we have a book on him, much like the ones that helped the 2018 trade deadline.

[Dman]

 

Few teams consistently do as well as we do in IFA. My thought was we have a book on him, much like the ones that helped the 2018 trade deadline.

 

Totally agree. With Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Graterol, Thrope, Arraez etc.  Seems like they have a better hit rate than most clubs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is just hard to get excited about Camargo and his recent 642 OPS.  Guy seems to have some serious holes in his swing.  He can sting the ball like a major league player right now but if he rarely hits it then he'll never make it.  Yeah he is only 20 and from what I understand he started the year out hot so maybe an injury dropped his performance but looking back at his stats this kind of feels like who he is.  Also his defense at catcher isn't great either.  Guy looks like a reclamation project and he is Rule V eligible this next year so lets say he does have a great year then they have to worry about protecting him right away.  I fail to see the awesome upside.

 

Raley on the other hand is essentially ready to contribute right now. Granted he has his warts especially OBP but he looks like a near lock to contribute at the MLB level in some manner.  There is still risk that he could end up AAAA but I think he will turn out.  I don't see star potential there but at least 4th outfielder potential. I get that given the players in our system there is no spot for Raley and freeing up that 40 man spot has value for us as there will be interesting guys that get cut after spring training but to me it feels like Raley is more likely to make it to MLB than Camargo.

 

To your point though the guys that do this for a living seem to see pretty equal value for these guys from a prospect perspective.  I think FanGraphs had both of them at 35+ FV so those that felt that was the swap might be correct.  Being a Stat\numbers watcher Camargo feels more like a throw in than someone to dream on.  But hey what do I know I thought Jeffers was a horrible draft pick too.  All I am saying is that right now today it is hard to get excited about the guy so I can see why people are overlooking him.

But you're looking at the deal in a vacuum, which doesn't exist for front offices when making these decisions.

 

Right now, Raley is behind Cave and Wade but also consumes a 40-man roster spot. On top of having two people in front of him, he has two better prospects behind him as well, both of which could make the Minnesota roster this season. Camargo, while unimpressive, does not consume a 40-man roster spot and also plays a position of scarcity.

 

Raley's clock was ticking in the Twins organization. Unless he starts the 2020 season mashing, there's a good chance the Twins need to consider trying to sneak him through waivers by June or July to make room for the inevitable 40-man roster shuffle that happens mid-season because of injury and/or ineffectiveness.

 

So, from the Twins perspective, the move likely came down to moving a fungible (to them, anyway) commodity for something before risking losing him for nothing. They managed to get someone at least mildly interesting in return, someone they don't need to make a decision about for at least another eight months.

 

Sometimes, kicking the can down the road and shuffling prospects as roster management is the smart move and it appears this is one of those instances.

[Dman]

 

But you're looking at the deal in a vacuum, which doesn't exist for front offices when making these decisions.

 

Right now, Raley is behind Cave and Wade but also consumes a 40-man roster spot. On top of having two people in front of him, he has two better prospects behind him as well, both of which could make the Minnesota roster this season. Camargo, while unimpressive, does not consume a 40-man roster spot and also plays a position of scarcity.

 

Raley's clock was ticking in the Twins organization. Unless he starts the 2020 season mashing, there's a good chance the Twins need to consider trying to sneak him through waivers by June or July to make room for the inevitable 40-man roster shuffle that happens mid-season because of injury and/or ineffectiveness.

 

So, from the Twins perspective, the move likely came down to moving a fungible (to them, anyway) commodity for something before risking losing him for nothing. They managed to get someone at least mildly interesting in return, someone they don't need to make a decision about for at least another eight months.

 

Sometimes, kicking the can down the road and shuffling prospects as roster management is the smart move and it appears this is one of those instances.

 

I have never been a part of a FO so likely don't understand how these deals go down.  I am a fan that loves the players I follow and probably values them a little bit too highly.  Reading the tea leaves on this one though the Dodgers technically have someone that can do what Raley does in Garlick and they were willing to designate him for Raley so they must see something in Raley that they like long term to add him to their 40 man.  I just thought the Twins could get more for Raley than a Camargo type prospect, but maybe that is easier said than done.

 

You are right though I am looking at this in a vacuum. Maybe part of getting the Maeda deal done is Raley and the draft pick with Raley's value over Camargo translated into a little more cash.  Hard to say not knowing what was discussed so looking at it as Raley for Camargo is all wrong. I just didn't care for the return that MN got back as a prospect.  That doesn't mean I am right, as putting the stat line ahead of everything doesn't always work.  I hope Jair finds his stroke and makes me look like a fool.  I have never seen him play so have very little idea of what he can do. It's just not a return that is easy for me to see the positives and get behind.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have never been a part of a FO so likely don't understand how these deals go down.  I am a fan that loves the players I follow and probably values them a little bit too highly.  Reading the tea leaves on this one though the Dodgers technically have someone that can do what Raley does in Garlick and they were willing to designate him for Raley so they must see something in Raley that they like long term to add him to their 40 man.  I just thought the Twins could get more for Raley than a Camargo type prospect, but maybe that is easier said than done.

 

You are right though I am looking at this in a vacuum. Maybe part of getting the Maeda deal done is Raley and the draft pick with Raley's value over Camargo translated into a little more cash.  Hard to say not knowing what was discussed so looking at it as Raley for Camargo is all wrong. I just didn't care for the return that MN got back as a prospect.  That doesn't mean I am right, as putting the stat line ahead of everything doesn't always work.  I hope Jair finds his stroke and makes me look like a fool.  I have never seen him play so have very little idea of what he can do. It's just not a return that is easy for me to see the positives and get behind.

Raley originally came from the Dodgers. Now that they have him back, I suspect there's something they really like about him. It may have been a strong request to get the deal done that he returns to LA, dunno.

[Mike Sixel]

Accepting something and being frustrated by it is incongruent

Not at all. Maybe displeased is a better word? I accept that the Twins can't spend like drunken sailors, but it still disappoints me when they didn't in the past.

[stringer bell]

Another way of looking at the additions to the trade is now and later. Right now the Twins get $10M when their payroll is as high as it's ever been and the Dodgers get Raley, a viable recall option at some point this season. Later, the Dodgers get a competitive balance pick and the Twins hope to cash a lottery ticket on Camargo, who isn't on the 40-man roster and plays a position of scarcity and has some tools. 

[Dman]

 

Raley originally came from the Dodgers. Now that they have him back, I suspect there's something they really like about him. It may have been a strong request to get the deal done that he returns to LA, dunno.

 

Hey any chance you can enlighten me on exit velocity?  I understand the importance as it allows for more chances for hits and home runs but is it more important than the hit tool itself?  It seems like the Twins seem to think so to a greater degree than I had originally thought.  Is the thinking who cares if you hit 240 or 250 if your slugging is higher then the odds are better for scoring runs?  I think I might be behind the times here. 

 

Camargo's raw power at 65 is a number I have rarely seen that is Rooker level power.  So the thinking is he will likely get better at the plate and since he has the raw power already that makes him MLB ready?  I am not sure I follow the logic yet.  It seems that without a good hit tool you can't get a good outcome in OPS because you create too many outs.  The Twins always seem to be seeking guys with good raw power numbers do they feel they can train these guys well enough to get the hit tool to an acceptable level to make the power work?  That is all I can come up with for Camargo.  He is young and swings a heavy bat.  Let's hope he can take walks and hit the ball once in a while.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hey any chance you can enlighten me on exit velocity?  I understand the importance as it allows for more chances for hits and home runs but is it more important than the hit tool itself?  It seems like the Twins seem to think so to a greater degree than I had originally thought.  Is the thinking who cares if you hit 240 or 250 if your slugging is higher then the odds are better for scoring runs?  I think I might be behind the times here. 

 

Camargo's raw power at 65 is a number I have rarely seen that is Rooker level power.  So the thinking is he will likely get better at the plate and since he has the raw power already that makes him MLB ready?  I am not sure I follow the logic yet.  It seems that without a good hit tool you can't get a good outcome in OPS because you create too many outs.  The Twins always seem to be seeking guys with good raw power numbers do they feel they can train these guys well enough to get the hit tool to an acceptable level to make the power work?  That is all I can come up with for Camargo.  He is young and swings a heavy bat.  Let's hope he can take walks and hit the ball once in a while.

I haven't read this (or if I did, it was years ago and I don't remember it) but I suspect this will point you in the right direction better than I could stumble through in a brief post.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/exit-velocity-part-i-on-the-import-of-exit-velocity-for-hitters/

[old nurse]

 

How does everyone keep leaving Camargo out of the deal? To the Twins (and likely Dodgers, too), his value is similar to Raley if only because of positional scarcity and the fact he’s nowhere near the 40-man roster.

Luke Raley's value to the Dodgers may be that he is the disaster plan. He hit well in the International league. He has options so they can keep him around.  The Twins have one more year of Jake Cave for that role and LaMonte Wade. 

Camargo is more like the draft pick than he is Raley. He has some tools but it is unknown if they will develop. The difference is the draft pick should have a better chance of reaching that level of development.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There was some question about whether this was $10M spread over 4 years, or $10M this year.

 

It was reported yesterday that the $10M is immediate. No spreading.

It is immediate, but it may not be $10 mil. According to this, the Dodgers are paying the $3 mil base, plus $1 mil assignment bonus, plus up to $7 mil in incentives this year:

 

https://twitter.com/ericstephen/status/1228042185943089152?s=20

 

The writer clarified, in a later reply, that if the Maeda doesn’t earn those incentives in 2020, that means the Dodgers will pay less.

 

So if you count the assignment bonus, it sounds like the Twins will get between $4 mil and $11 mil from the Dodgers in 2020, depending on what incentive level Maeda reaches.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Raley originally came from the Dodgers. Now that they have him back, I suspect there's something they really like about him. It may have been a strong request to get the deal done that he returns to LA, dunno.

yeah, I can picture something along the lines of: “we’ll take Graterol off your hands for Maeda, but we want Raley back too”, then comes the negotiation on the mix of flier and cash to even things out for the Twins.

[howieramone2]

"I'm under orders from ownership to dump Maeda's salary. I'll pick up the freight the first year and include someone who can catch him. All I need from you is 2 warm bodies who can deal with nice weather everyday."

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not much of a salary dump (the Dodgers could have simply released him and only owed $12 mil).

 

I think they just realized they were going to be far enough over the luxury tax threshold with Betts and Price anyway, so they might as well use start using cash to buy more assets this year (in this case, mainly the draft pick and its accompanying bonus pool value).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

yeah, I can picture something along the lines of: “we’ll take Graterol off your hands for Maeda, but we want Raley back too”, then comes the negotiation on the mix of flier and cash to even things out for the Twins.

Definitely. That's kinda what I picture as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think they just realized they were going to be far enough over the luxury tax threshold with Betts and Price anyway, so they might as well use start using cash to buy more assets this year (in this case, mainly the draft pick and its accompanying bonus pool value).

I keep meaning to research this but haven't had the time: didn't the Dodgers reset their luxury tax a couple of years ago? I haven't checked the structuring and years of the current threshold but if they reset a couple of years ago, moving all that money in a single year makes the most sense, as the penalties only grow in time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I keep meaning to research this but haven't had the time: didn't the Dodgers reset their luxury tax a couple of years ago? I haven't checked the structuring and years of the current threshold but if they reset a couple of years ago, moving all that money in a single year makes the most sense, as the penalties only grow in time.

Yes. The Dodgers have actually been under the threshold each of the past two seasons (2018 & 2019), after being way over for a few years prior.

 

And they can probably go way over again this year, and maybe even reset again next winter (pending FAs Betts, Turner, etc.).

[sampleSizeOfOne]

What is a "solid prospect" exactly?

A keeper.

 

A liquid prospect would be for trading, me thinks.