The Trade Route

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No denying Darvish had a very good second half. For those of you keeping score at home, he has now paid for himself 25% of the time since he signed that bad contract.

That's not really how "paying for himself" works. Player performance will vary by season/half/month/etc, and periods of above-average performance can balance out periods of below-average performance. And even with his scuffles in the first half of 2019, Darvish's second half was so good, he was basically worth his salary for the full season by WAR. (Edit to add: by your accounting, Mike Trout doesn't "pay for himself" a significant amount of time either!)

 

By WAR, Darvish also been worth his present annual salary, or more, in 6 of 8 years since he came to MLB. The only exceptions have been 2018 and his full season lost to TJ surgery in 2015.

 

Also, what you call a "huge injury risk" has only had two notable periods in his career where he was sidelined -- his TJ elbow injury spanning late 2014 to mid 2016, and his triceps issue in 2018. Every pitcher is some level of injury risk, but we don't have near enough info to conclude that Darvish is worse than his peers in that regard.

[howieramone2]

 

Like Pineda, who only pitched 25 percent of his contract, and hasn't pitched a full season in five years?

If you want free agents, and they are really good, you have to pay for their decline. You can always pay on them, but then you have to be significantly better at trades and development than everyone else that is competitive.

I missed where Pineda got a 6 year contract for $121M-$150M with a 2 year opt out clause. The new regime is significantly better than most teams at trades and development.

 

The big miss this off-season was the Red Sox not pursuing Falvey harder. They should have found a means to move Bets to us in exchange for Falvey. No doubt someday it will rank right there with selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees for $350,000 cash and $500,000 loan.

[bird]

 

Like Pineda, who only pitched 25 percent of his contract, and hasn't pitched a full season in five years?

If you want free agents, and they are really good, you have to pay for their decline. You can always pay on them, but then you have to be significantly better at trades and development than everyone else that is competitive.

 

 

This is an analogy that fails miserably, in virtually every way except in comparing their production and injury history.

 

In Darvish's final two years, the Cubs are on the hook for $40M, twice what the Twins are on the hook for Pineda's entire contract. We're talking about a $61M difference here, and a possible $20M burden each year Darvish is "in decline" at age 36 and 37. 

 

You DO NOT have to pay for that kind of decline to procure Darvish-quality starting pitching. You can find have Odo AND Pineda and still have $50M available that would NOT have if you were saddled with the Darvish albatross. That was and is very likely a bad decision even if you have a payroll budget $40M higher than the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is an analogy that fails miserably, in virtually every way except in comparing their production and injury history.

I think Mike was responding (like I was) to the erroneous notion that Darvish only "paid for" 25% of the first 2 years of his contract so far, rather than comparing the Pineda and Darvish more directly.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Mike was responding (like I was) to the erroneous notion that Darvish only "paid for" 25% of the first 2 years of his contract so far, rather than comparing the Pineda and Darvish more directly.

Correct.

[Mike Sixel]

This is an analogy that fails miserably, in virtually every way except in comparing their production and injury history.

 

In Darvish's final two years, the Cubs are on the hook for $40M, twice what the Twins are on the hook for Pineda's entire contract. We're talking about a $61M difference here, and a possible $20M burden each year Darvish is "in decline" at age 36 and 37. 

 

You DO NOT have to pay for that kind of decline to procure Darvish-quality starting pitching. You can find have Odo AND Pineda and still have $50M available that would NOT have if you were saddled with the Darvish albatross. That was and is very likely a bad decision even if you have a payroll budget $40M higher than the Twins.

Like whom this year, can you get not in their decline or risky years, that you think is great? What does that fifty million available mean, if you won't spend it on possibly risky deals? Trades require trading valuable players, if you think of them as assets, you are likely spending as much or more in trades as signings, unless you can point to many odorizzi like trades around the league.....

[cmoss84]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/robbie-ray

 

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of trading for Ray...if we are able to extend him. Let's say 5/100? (or we could match Wheeler's deal)

 

We would have him ages 28-33. Tons of talent and ceiling is high. Had a good, but not great 2019. Would cost a lot, but not as much as Syndergaard and probably Gray. 

 

...and he could be a guy that shuts down anyone in playoffs. Swing and miss stuff at an elite level. What you guys think? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/robbie-ray

 

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of trading for Ray...if we are able to extend him. Let's say 5/100? (or we could match Wheeler's deal)

 

We would have him ages 28-33. Tons of talent and ceiling is high. Had a good, but not great 2019. Would cost a lot, but not as much as Syndergaard and probably Gray. 

 

...and he could be a guy that shuts down anyone in playoffs. Swing and miss stuff at an elite level. What you guys think? 

 

If he's that good, why would he sign for so little money on an extension, given what has happened this off season?

[cmoss84]

If he's that good, why would he sign for so little money on an extension, given what has happened this off season?

 

You think he'll get more than Wheeler?

[FlauerPauer]

Baseballtradevalues.com says a deal of Balazovic and Larnach for Gray is an equal trade. Maybe throw a couple low minors flyers would make the Rockies pull the trigger.

 

Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley for Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker, Wander Javier, and Matt Wallner.

 

If similar deals were offered and accepted, the Twins would fill their rotation needs and not giving up the top three guys in the minors. Losing Balazovic would hurt as I think he can be a stud, but far from a sure thing. Lanarch could be a very good hitter. Power and speed to the D'backs would be a good return for a FA to be at the end of the year.

 

 

Edit: Just did Kyle Hendricks for Larnach, Balazovic, and Gordon. 

 

Obviously not a exact measure, but at least gives an idea of value.

[Linus]

Baseballtradevalues.com says a deal of Balazovic and Lanarch for Gray is an equal trade. Maybe throw a couple low minors flyers would make the Rockies pull the trigger.

 

Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley for Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker, Wander Javier, and Matt Wallner.

 

If similar deals were offered and accepted, the Twins would fill their rotation needs and not giving up the top three guys in the minors. Losing Balazovic would hurt as I think he can be a stud, but far from a sure thing. Lanarch could be a very good hitter. Power and speed to the D'backs would be a good return for a FA to be at the end of the year.

I would do that last deal in a heartbeat which means AZ likely wouldn’t

[FlauerPauer]

How about Rosario, Javier, Gordon, and Thorpe for Caleb Smith from the Marlins. Not an ace, but is a solid pitcher who could probably benefit from playing on a better team. K's 10/9 and controlled for the next four years.

[FlauerPauer]

 

I would do that last deal in a heartbeat which means AZ likely wouldn’t

 

The site said it was actually an overpay for the Twins. Figure it's at least a good starting point.

[ewen21]

 

Like Pineda, who only pitched 25 percent of his contract, and hasn't pitched a full season in five years?

If you want free agents, and they are really good, you have to pay for their decline. You can always pay on them, but then you have to be significantly better at trades and development than everyone else that is competitive.

Like Pineda HOW? 

 

Yu Darvish signed a 6 year / $126,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, including $126,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $21,000,000. In 2020, Darvish will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $22,000,000.

 

How much have we committed to Pineda?  The Cubs are paying Darvish twice as much and he is locked up until he is 37.  We can be finished with PIneda if we want to be a lot easier.

[tony&rodney]

The massive rise in the cost of the top free agent pitchers is really bad luck for the Twins. They are sitting with a strong core on the main club and some attractive potential working through the high minors. This would be the time to sign anyone that can help the Twins be better next year. The trades I am reading for Cubs, Gray, Ray and others could be very costly and I'm not convinced. Snell is not likely available but interesting. That leaves the Twins looking to trade from their current team. There are teams that need a C, 3B, and OF. do we consider trading Sano, Buxton, or Garver? I guess in a week we should all know if the free agents were too expensive and trades are necessary. So I will throw out a couple of crazy ideas: Berrios and Buxton to San Diego for Paddock, Gore, and Patina and Sano and Gonzalez to Atlanta for Fried, Pache, and Wright. 

I don't really like these ideas. I'm holding out for a signing of a FA pitcher.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Like whom this year, can you get not in their decline or risky years, that you think is great? What does that fifty million available mean, if you won't spend it on possibly risky deals? Trades require trading valuable players, if you think of them as assets, you are likely spending as much or more in trades as signings, unless you can point to many odorizzi like trades around the league.....

Interesting thoughts. I wonder what the cost is to take a prospect from draft day to the ML's? Royce Lewis for example. Bonus, training, coaching, etc. Not to mention lost revenue the team had by being bad so they could draft him in the first place. I'm not saying he cost along the lines of a mega Strasburg deal, but the costs all add up.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

You think he'll get more than Wheeler?

I could well see Wheeler's deal being called a major steal in 3-4 years.

[Mike Sixel]

Interesting thoughts. I wonder what the cost is to take a prospect from draft day to the ML's? Royce Lewis for example. Bonus, training, coaching, etc. Not to mention lost revenue the team had by being bad so they could draft him in the first place. I'm not saying he cost along the lines of a mega Strasburg deal, but the costs all add up.

Prospects have value. I believe Lewis is worth between fifty and seventy million.

 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/02/prospect-valuation-much-top-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/

[bird]

 

Like whom this year, can you get not in their decline or risky years, that you think is great? What does that fifty million available mean, if you won't spend it on possibly risky deals? Trades require trading valuable players, if you think of them as assets, you are likely spending as much or more in trades as signings, unless you can point to many odorizzi like trades around the league.....

 

 

I've favored Ryu from the start. Three years, not five. That's an acceptable risk, like Odo has been and like Pineda has been. Neither were terribly risky deals the first time or for 2020. And I'm hoping the organization is studying the medicals on guys like Wood, Teheran, and Gausman and looking for decent trade candidates. Was hoping for Bundy.

 

I'd spread that $50M out both with respect to the number of players AND over a couple of years, like Falvey is doing.

[RaoulDuke]

I like the idea of Darvish as a bounce back guy

 

I like the idea of Gray or similar to get a relocation/ Wes Johnson bump

 

I am good with the right deal for an older guy like Price or similar

 

I love the idea of Snell if there is a trade to be made

 

I love the idea of Ray if there is a trade to be made

 

I love the fantasy of Sale since the Sox want to shed payroll?

 

They need to acquire someone that can be a top of the rotation arm.  

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How about Rosario, Javier, Gordon, and Thorpe for Caleb Smith from the Marlins. Not an ace, but is a solid pitcher who could probably benefit from playing on a better team. K's 10/9 and controlled for the next four years.

This has been brought up before, but I don't the Marlins would have any interest in Rosario in such a trade. He costs money, and isn't even a very good bet to flip, given his position and performance.

[amjgt]

A name that might not be as sexy as some others mentioned, but could still be interesting....

 

What about Sonny Gray? He had a higher WAR in 2019 that anyone else mentioned in this thread (Darvish, Jon Gray, Sale, Ray, Snell, Price)

 

2/20 left on his contract, with a $12M team option for 2022.

 

Edited to add:

Last 3 months of the season....

15 starts

93IP

20ER (1.94ERA)

114K (11 K/9)

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Baseballtradevalues.com says a deal of Balazovic and Larnach for Gray is an equal trade. Maybe throw a couple low minors flyers would make the Rockies pull the trigger.

 

Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley for Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker, Wander Javier, and Matt Wallner.

 

If similar deals were offered and accepted, the Twins would fill their rotation needs and not giving up the top three guys in the minors. Losing Balazovic would hurt as I think he can be a stud, but far from a sure thing. Lanarch could be a very good hitter. Power and speed to the D'backs would be a good return for a FA to be at the end of the year.

 

 

Edit: Just did Kyle Hendricks for Larnach, Balazovic, and Gordon. 

 

Obviously not a exact measure, but at least gives an idea of value.

Thanks for the research. I do enjoy baseballtradevalues.com although it has its limitations.

 

On some level, the Rockies sure seem like they should be sellers, but they've also made some big investments in players for the next few years, including some very good players. Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Marquez are still there, and they might either prefer keeping Gray with them, or getting a return that could help that group more immediately (like Arizona did in their Goldschmidt trade last winter). I feel like it would have to hurt the Twins a bit more to pry Gray from them.

 

Arizona might have a similar goal, perhaps even moreso coming off an 85 win season. And Gordon and Rooker strike me as particularly bad targets for a "reloading" team, as they both seem destined to endure an adjustment period in MLB even if they become good players down the line. (Also worth noting that Bradley has 2 years control left, and they might effectively get an extra year of control over Ray with a QO too, so they may not have an impetus to make that deal right now.)

 

The Cubs are the seller du jour but personally I don't think they're anything close to traditional sellers. They're still built to win in the next couple years. They might get creative to move some money around, and they'll listen if anyone is willing to blow them away to get Bryant, but I don't think they have any interest in moving a guy like Hendricks for "fair value" right now.

 

It should be interesting to see what deals happen this winter, though!

[amjgt]

 

This has been brought up before, but I don't the Marlins would have any interest in Rosario in such a trade. He costs money, and isn't even a very good bet to flip, given his position and performance.

 

How dare you badmouth MVP-Vote-Getting Eddie Rosario like that?

[Mike Sixel]

 

A name that might not be as sexy as some others mentioned, but could still be interesting....

 

What about Sonny Gray? He had a higher WAR in 2019 that anyone else mentioned in this thread (Darvish, Jon Gray, Sale, Ray, Snell, Price)

 

2/20 left on his contract, with a $12M team option for 2022.

 

Edited to add:

Last 3 months of the season....

15 starts

93IP

20ER (1.94ERA)

114K (11 K/9)

 

And the turn around probably wasn't just luck. He ditched a pitch the team wanted him to use before the turn around. I'm in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A name that might not be as sexy as some others mentioned, but could still be interesting....

 

What about Sonny Gray? He had a higher WAR in 2019 that anyone else mentioned in this thread (Darvish, Jon Gray, Sale, Ray, Snell, Price)

 

2/20 left on his contract, with a $12M team option for 2022.

 

Edited to add:

Last 3 months of the season....

15 starts

93IP

20ER (1.94ERA)

114K (11 K/9)

I don't think Sonny Gray gets mentioned because the Reds aren't close to sellers, judging by their moves. (And in fact they just acquired Gray and extended him last winter.)

 

I think we all just got so used to Sonny Gray being perpetually on the trade block with the A's and Yankees, it's easy to forget.

[SmellEm]

The Padres are apparently trying to dump Myers contract, wonder if they would be willing to part with Mackensie Gore in order to do so.  Myers is owed about $68.5 million over the next three years (+ the buyout for his 4th year) and may only be usable as a platoon bat against lefties, so they're going to have to include a decent amount to get rid of him. Twins may have to throw in some assets as well, but there's your potential future Cole or Verlander. 

[amjgt]

The Reds seem like they could be considered in the same bucket of competitiveness as the Rockies and D-backs

[twinkiesfan11]

 

A name that might not be as sexy as some others mentioned, but could still be interesting....

 

What about Sonny Gray? He had a higher WAR in 2019 that anyone else mentioned in this thread (Darvish, Jon Gray, Sale, Ray, Snell, Price)

 

2/20 left on his contract, with a $12M team option for 2022.

 

Edited to add:

Last 3 months of the season....

15 starts

93IP

20ER (1.94ERA)

114K (11 K/9)

 The Reds aren't selling period and definitely not pitching. They were even rumored to be in on Wheeler up until the end. They overpaid for Moustakas and are supposedly in on Ozuna. They seem to believe that they can win the central division and maybe more. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Reds seem like they could be considered in the same bucket of competitiveness as the Rockies and D-backs

True, but the Reds also just traded for Bauer, signed Moustakas, etc.

 

And Sonny Gray is likely better than Ray or Jon Gray, and he is controlled longer too.

 

(As an aside, why do we have to discuss 3 pitchers named Gray, Gray, and Ray together )