Liriano

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you can get him for $4m, you have to do it. Too much upside for that kind of money when the alternative is a Marquis type.

[TheLeviathan]

Liriano is not going to get 7 mil. He is rocking a 5.23 ERA the last two seasons, teams will take a chance on him no doubt, but not for 7-8 mil.

 

I love how a million or two makes Liriano's performance odds magically transform from awful to awesome.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If you can get him for $4m, you have to do it. Too much upside for that kind of money when the alternative is a Marquis type.

 

Upside? What if we've already seen it?

 

I think we just have to consider Liriano as one of those players who had great potential but could never put it together, for whatever reason. That's hardly uncommon - there are more of those than there are aces.

[Thrylos]

If you can get him for $4m, you have to do it. Too much upside for that kind of money when the alternative is a Marquis type.

 

Upside? What if we've already seen it?

 

I think we just have to consider Liriano as one of those players who had great potential but could never put it together, for whatever reason. That's hardly uncommon - there are more of those than there are aces.

 

Well....

truth of the matter: he did put it together. He was the best pitcher in baseball in 2006. Then stuff happened.

Cannot forget that.

[twinsnorth49]

Potentially signing Liriano is now considered moving forward? What is the upside to this again? The snowball's chance in hell he even comes close to what he did in pre-injury '06?

[Rosterman]

Liriano will probably only get a single season offer, might hit $3.5-4 million, but probably with a backend team (or maybe even the Astros). I doubt that he'll be signable for a multi-year and his agent will be stepping all over him to actually pitch in 2013 if he wants to make big bucks. So i might be a good year to gamble on him. Here's a guy in for a big letdown...starting 2012 with the thought that he'd easily make $8-10 and probably sign a $36-40 million multi-season deal. Yes, Francisco and Delmon are both in for a rude awakening...and look for them on-the0field in KC, Pittsburgh, Colorado or Houston. But not Minnesota!

[70charger]

If Liriano is a good pitcher, how come he never pitches like... ya know... a good pitcher?

 

Seriously. Dude sucks. He has since 2006, one fluke year notwithstanding (and even then he wasn't that great). This is like asking whether we want to bring back Joel Zumaya. No thanks.

[70charger]

Oh, and if anyone is still bitching about getting a pitcher and a slick fielding middle infielder in trade for a few months of 5.5 ERA Liriano, you need to give up now. The Twins were lucky to get anything beyond a bag of balls and/or Ozzie f-ing Guillen for that waste of talent.

[one_eyed_jack]

I get the the "well, if we can get him cheap, he's worth a gamble" argument. But he's not going to come cheap. There will be some idiot that overpays for him. There always is with guys like this.

[DaveW]

If Liriano is a good pitcher, how come he never pitches like... ya know... a good pitcher?

 

Seriously. Dude sucks. He has since 2006, one fluke year notwithstanding (and even then he wasn't that great). This is like asking whether we want to bring back Joel Zumaya. No thanks.

LOL 2006 wasn't that great? 2.16 ERA 10.7k is pretty damn good...

He was also pretty good in 2008 and 2010. I guess you basically would hope that this is the year that it finally "clicks" with him? Who knows. I'd just rather give him 3 million or so then the next Ramon Ortiz type who you know will post a 4.75-5.00 ERA at least with Liriano there is the hope he figures it out and gives you a 3.50 ERA or something.

 

I also like the thought about putting him in the pen, however he really would need to lower his walk rate, which exactly wouldn't be the easiest thing in the world.

[DaveW]

I get the the "well, if we can get him cheap, he's worth a gamble" argument. But he's not going to come cheap. There will be some idiot that overpays for him. There always is with guys like this.

 

Yeah I hear ya, I just can't see anyone giving him a multi year deal (maybe an NL team if they are desperate?) I mean there will be a lot of interest but would be shocked if he gets 6+ million

[DaveW]

Potentially signing Liriano is now considered moving forward? What is the upside to this again? The snowball's chance in hell he even comes close to what he did in pre-injury '06?

 

Signing a guy like Liriano instead of the next Jason Marquis, Ortiz, Hernandez etc is moving forward.

[Badsmerf]

Yes. He is the type of low-risk/high-reward guy the Twins should be targeting. Regardless of his past on this team, he is an MLB pitcher and should be considered the same as anyone else. I don't know how the parting of ways was, but they should try to sign him.

[Thegrin]

We can pray that the Yanks will sign him to a 3 to 4 year deal. ROFL

[Twins Twerp]

4-5 mil would be worth it. We know what we are getting. I don't see the harm. If we sign him to be a bottom of the rotation guy, he is better than Duduno and De Vries. If we can sign a couple of top end guys (Jackson, Marcum, etc.) then a deal for Liriano makes sense. If anyone else shows him interest and drives his value over 5 million, then no freakin' way. But I like the thought of a minor league deal, and I am guessing he would rather come to a place he knows. He is, as you may remember, a bi-polar headcase.

[IdahoPilgrim]

This ain't happening. The Twins (rightfully so, I think) don't value him as highly as many on this board seem to, or else they wouldn't have traded him for a couple of spare parts (and they were lucky to get that). For that matter, the rest of the league doesn't value him that highly either (or again, we wouldn't have had to trade him for spare parts). There was no interest on the Twins part to negotiate a new contract with him while he was here, and I can't believe there will be any to resign him now.

 

He has great stuff. He's inconsistent and unreliable. His ERA post-injury is around 4.75. Let's move on.

[TheLeviathan]

Are the people saying "just 4 or 5 million is fine" in the same group that gets irritated when we piddle away 12-15M on a handful of the 4-5M guys? Just last year the cash we spent on Capps, Marquis, and Jamey Carroll was a 10M player. Do we really want to mismash another 10-15 on three subpar players rather than pooling and splashing? I know for a fact a few of the people wanting to gamble on a guy who has established himself as one of the worst starters in the AL are also guys that complain about wasting money in "reasonable" contracts that add up to real money.

 

Liriano isn't very good and his numbers last year show it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Are the people saying "just 4 or 5 million is fine" in the same group that gets irritated when we piddle away 12-15M on a handful of the 4-5M guys? Just last year the cash we spent on Capps, Marquis, and Jamey Carroll was a 10M player. Do we really want to mismash another 10-15 on three subpar players rather than pooling and splashing? I know for a fact a few of the people wanting to gamble on a guy who has established himself as one of the worst starters in the AL are also guys that complain about wasting money in "reasonable" contracts that add up to real money.

 

Liriano isn't very good and his numbers last year show it.

 

The Twins need four starters.

 

Repeat. The Twins need four starters.

 

At least two of those guys are going to have to be signed cheaply. If you need someone on the cheap, would you prefer another Pitcherpotamus, another Marquis, or a guy that has some upside?

 

I'm not a Liriano fan but if you want this team to win in 2013 and can pick up Francisco for $3-4m on a one year deal, you have to make that move. Lots of upside, very little risk.

[TheLeviathan]

Repeat. The Twins need four starters.

 

If you believe we need four starters from outside the organization than A) we don't have enough money for that and Liriano still sucks and doesn't solve that need. What we don't need is live bodies - we need good arms. Liriano has repeatedly proven he is not that. If he gets signed, I'm guessing it's as a bullpen arm.

 

I'm firmly against the idea of investing money into short-term solutions for next year given the number of problems this team faces. If you're going to sink money into the pitching staff - sink into players that can be here for 3-4 years.

[Guest USAFChief]

Sheesh. If there's anything Liriano HAS proven, it's that he's not just a "live body." Rather, he's the definition of "good arm." Jason Marques is a "warm body." Cole Devries is a warm body. Liriano isn't.

 

Whether or not Liriano can harness that good arm is another issue, of course. Many believe he never will.

 

But just another nothing, with no real chance of being well above average? No. That's a ridiculous take.

[TheLeviathan]

There are plenty of pitchers with "stuff" that have never been anything. Liriano has failed over and over and over again. At some point "stuff" isn't enough - especially when you have been one of the worst pitchers in the AL for three of the last four years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Repeat. The Twins need four starters.

 

If you believe we need four starters from outside the organization than A) we don't have enough money for that and Liriano still sucks and doesn't solve that need. What we don't need is live bodies - we need good arms. Liriano has repeatedly proven he is not that. If he gets signed, I'm guessing it's as a bullpen arm.

 

I'm firmly against the idea of investing money into short-term solutions for next year given the number of problems this team faces. If you're going to sink money into the pitching staff - sink into players that can be here for 3-4 years.

 

I agree that the Twins' first target should be a long-term arm.

 

That doesn't change the fact that they will still need other arms to fill out the rotation. If you're going to spend money on a guy to eat innings, there is no reason to not go with the guy with upside. If you don't think the Twins should sign a Liriano-type to round out the rotation, what do you suggest they do?

[TheLeviathan]

If you don't think the Twins should sign a Liriano-type to round out the rotation, what do you suggest they do?

 

Throw our own batch of bad arms out there that don't cost us 3-5 million. Hendricks, DeVries, a worthwhile FA, Diamond, Gibson, Deduno, etc. If you're going to willingly put bad pitchers in your rotation, why pay them a lot?

[Rosterman]

Don't complain about what we got from the White Sox. Got two players that will contribute something. Liriano was a dead arm.

 

If the Twins (or the White Sox) wished to keep Liriano, they would be on the hook for much more than he is currently worth.

 

The only factor in considering Liriano is that he HAS to pitch well next season if he wants to make big money or get a long-term contract. He HAS to pitch the best he ever has.

 

The upside is that he may come cheap, and of he shines, you can flip him for a couple of players. If he pitches okay, you can still flip him, possibly, for a couple of players.

 

Man, I could see the Astros signing Clemens, getting a bunch of wanna-bees (Liriano and Young, for example), selling some season tickets, and still flipping guys for more promise and hope.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you don't think the Twins should sign a Liriano-type to round out the rotation, what do you suggest they do?

 

Throw our own batch of bad arms out there that don't cost us 3-5 million. Hendricks, DeVries, a worthwhile FA, Diamond, Gibson, Deduno, etc. If you're going to willingly put bad pitchers in your rotation, why pay them a lot?

 

And I'm not against that move... If the Twins can pick up two legitimate starters. I'd go for a Sanchez/Jackson/Marcum type for 3 years and then sign Baker (pending physical and rehab status, that is). If you are confident that Baker can perform, snatch him up and fill in two rotation spots with filler until Gibson is ready (which he shouldn't be in April... If you start him out of ST, then you just have to bench him in August anyway... Better to do it the other way around).

 

But if Baker isn't ready or if another team picks him up, you can't expect the Twins to fill in three rotation spots with junk arms. That's a great way to start another season at 10-25 and be out of it by May 15th. In that situation, I'm not against picking up Liriano if he can be had for $3-4m. There simply aren't better options than him out there with the kind of upside he brings to the table. Just 24 months ago, the guy was getting Cy Young votes and it's not as if he suffered a major injury. He still has that kind of talent, though he's unlikely to pitch at quite that high a level again.

 

It's a bad situation to be in but advocating that the Twins throw out Deduno/De Vries/Walters/etc. is writing off the season before it even starts. There is absolutely no way the Twins will compete with three of those guys in the rotation.

[DaveW]

Counting on DeDuno/DeVries/Walters to even give you "one arm" in the rotation for the whole season is a mistake, counting on them for 2 or 3 of those pitching spots is a recipe for disaster.

 

I like Baker, but will he even be 100% come beginning of next season? FWIW I hope they resign him as I think he could be huge in a contract/make or break year.

[PopRiveter]

Oh Francisco, how I wanted you to be our go-to pitcher!

Oh Francisco, how deep the gash you left with your repeated failures!

 

Any success the Twins have in '13 will have to include some bargain-midlevel free agent pick-ups outperforming a contract (ala Willingham '12.) Liriano at a low cost seems a good bet, but you can only flip a coin a have it land tails so many times before you pick a new coin.

 

Therefore...

...Ervin Santana!

Yeah, I'm dreaming. He won't be as cheap as Liriano, but a guy can hope against hope every once in a while.

[Ex-Iowegian]

How many years after the great season (2006) have to pass before people stop thinking that Liriano can replicate that success? Six? Eight?

His best days are gone. No reason to think that he can get that form back.

As for incentives? If he couldn’t get it together last year, in a contract year, why would one think he would respond to incentives?

I wish him well. But he needs to be someone else’s headache.

[Winston Smith]

I'll ask again how is Baker going to be ready before Gibson when he had his surgery 9 months later?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll ask again how is Baker going to be ready before Gibson when he had his surgery 9 months later?

 

31 years old versus 25. With Baker, there's little concern for babying his arm and bringing him back slowly. He may be ineffective but he'll probably be ready shortly after the season begins. He's already throwing on flat ground, IIRC.