A plea to the front office.

[USAFChief]

This makes it sound so easy.

 

Like there is no other possible influences changing the outcome. Just call Kansas City, offer this. Done deal. Kansas City will just say yes because no other team has thought of this.

 

Do you think the Twins are the only team who has called Kansas City to ask how much money Kansas City will eat for your benefit.

 

I agree we should have been more Bullpen serious in the off-season and during the season. I've often said that... but that isn't going to change the trade deadline complications of today. The Yankees were very bullpen serious in the off season and they are still most likely also calling Kansas City. Along with the Rays, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, A's, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and D-Backs and maybe the Giants now.

 

The Twins will probably have to do some over paying because of the lack of clear cut sellers but there has to be a limit and they have to prioritize the targets they seek.

 

OK they over pay for Kennedy to establish the market at your request. Now, they just drove the price up on Giles by over paying for Kennedy.

 

The top of the Twins prioritized list are probably the same players on top of the prioritized list of other teams. After a deep breath and clear mind... everybody should be able to see what kind of complication this creates to making a deal immediately.

 

Ask yourself who has the leverage with just a couple of clear cut sellers and lots of buyers... the market is going to get established by how much the seller is willing to sell for. If you want the buyer to set the market today... It's Royce Lewis for Matt Capps.

 

And another thing...

 

Much like free agency, high bidder wins. So whether we wait till late July 31st, or trade last week, we will need to outbid everyone else to win the auction.

 

So waiting saves little or nothing, and costs you games in the meantime. Might even raise the price as options disappear and bidders get more desperate.

 

There is bullpen help that could have already been here. Could be here this afternoon, and not on a flight from Rochester.

[jud6312]

 

3. These are the Yankees about whom their own manager said are a bunch of savages.

 

What else would he say about them? This one has zero to do with the Twins bullpen or what they should do to fix it.

[Riverbrian]

And another thing...

 

Much like free agency, high bidder wins. So whether we wait till late July 31st, or trade last week, we will need to outbid everyone else to win the auction.

 

.

You are right... high bidder wins but what if Kansas City thinks they can get even more by waiting as you describe.

 

I understand the Twins need for a deal yesterday. I question Kansas City’s reasoning to just stop the process of the prices go up waiting a week because we need the guy now and they don’t need to move him now.

 

These are big boys at the big boy table.

[jud6312]

 

And another thing...

Much like free agency, high bidder wins. So whether we wait till late July 31st, or trade last week, we will need to outbid everyone else to win the auction.

So waiting saves little or nothing, and costs you games in the meantime. Might even raise the price as options disappear and bidders get more desperate.

There is bullpen help that could have already been here. Could be here this afternoon, and not on a flight from Rochester.

 

I'm to the point where if I'm them, I take on the remainder of Kennedy's contract. See if that tickles their fancy at all.

 

It's one year of a little more than they paid Ervin Santana to not contribute. Barring a major backslide, Kennedy would be able to contribute in some form next year.

 

 

[terrydactyls]

When I didn’t pay my electric bill, and I’m freezing to death because I can’t heat my house, i can either pay the exorbitant cost of hooking it back up, or die.

I’m going to hook it back up, and maybe make a note to self “lesson learned, fool.” But I’m not going to wait for spring, hoping the prices will drop.

Are you okay with getting MadBaum and Smith by trading Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Rooker, and Balazovich?

[Dman]

 

It was surprisingly late in my career that a boss pointed out to me the important distinction between efficiency and effectiveness. Efficiency is needed and necessary and probably most of the time is the rule to follow. But once in a while, you have to tilt toward effectiveness.

 

The overpay should be in terms of quantity. I know that rival GMs don't want 2-for-1 trades, although that was my lasting memory of Terry Ryan's style when he sold desired pieces in deadline deals and we've seen some during this regime too. So, make them 5-for-1 trades. We have 40-man issues looming for the next several off-seasons, if our prospects are as good as we keep telling ourselves. So, these assets will not all get used by the Twins anyway, like over-ripe tomatos falling off the vine, except when that happens they don't even re-fertilize the soil. So, get something for them now, even if it looks like an overpay via some trade-value calculator - it's a false economy to hoard all these mid-level prospects that we keep accepting in return for our trade chips in years past.

 

This hasn't been my stance during the past several years. The window wasn't open, and it would have been a mistake IMO to have tried to pry it open prematurely. Now, however, it's time.

 

I totally agree with that plan if they can find a taker.  Way too many guys to protect and losing them for potentially nothing makes no sense.  The only issue I see with that approach is that if you are going after Stroman or any other guys with extra years of control the other team is going to want a top 100 player.  The Twins already stated they are not going to trade there three top 100 guys.  Maybe Larnach and Balazovic are close enough to entice another team but prices are likely going to be heavy for some of these guys.

 

They should be able to get some rental relief help by giving some combination of multiple top 9-40 type prospects though and like you said they can't keep them all or at least keep them protected form the rule V draft.  Why not get some value that might help you win the division and maybe a WS if you can?

[Vanimal46]

Are you okay with getting MadBaum and Smith by trading Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Rooker, and Balazovich?

LOL. Please be realistic if you're countering back on Chief's argument. In no universe are 2 rental players costing the team's top 5 prospects.

[nicksaviking]

I understand why most relievers are for the most part unavailable right now. I don't want to use my chips to get Shane Greene for 12 weeks when they could get me Ken Giles for 11 weeks.

 

But I would think that Ian Kennedy could have been acquired by any team willing to take on all of his contract. Surely no team wants to do that, but the amount KC will have to eat is likely the only thing anyone is haggling over, which I'm less than satisfied about.

[nicksaviking]

 

LOL. Please be realistic if you're countering back on Chief's argument. In no universe are 2 rental players costing the team's top 5 prospects.

 

They won't cost it because no one will pay it. But SF has absolutely no incentive not to be demanding that kind of return at this point.

 

Not that I think SF is actually going to sell, they have some good steam going.

[South Dakota Tom]

Scrolling down past the Falvey interview on MLBTradeRumors, and reading between the lines of his stance on the deadline, a name popped up that I think we might see.    Alex Wood hasn't pitched all year, but is a week or two away from his rehab being complete.    He is a free agent in the off-season and would come pretty cheap from Cincinnati (and I just predicted they would make a second-half charge.  Oops.)    I can see a move like that to "add depth" coupling it with the potential for Wood to start, long-relieve, and potentially be on the list of those we might try to sign in the off-season.  

 

As suggested, a move like that could bolster the bullpen by freeing up one starter to slide over, if it isn't Wood himself.    

[USAFChief]

Are you okay with getting MadBaum and Smith by trading Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Rooker, and Balazovich?

One of them, sure. I’d deal Rooker without a second thought. The rest would suck, but yeah. I think Lewis is most likely a bust anyway, and TINSTAAPP.

[terrydactyls]

LOL. Please be realistic if you're countering back on Chief's argument. In no universe are 2 rental players costing the team's top 5 prospects.

Posters are saying "whatever it costs", so why is my post unreasonable?

[terrydactyls]

One of them, sure. I’d deal Rooker without a second thought. The rest would suck, but yeah. I think Lewis is most likely a bust anyway, and TINSTAAPP.

I'm talking all of them for the two rentals, if that's "whatever it takes".

[Vanimal46]

They won't cost it because no one will pay it. But SF has absolutely no incentive not to be demanding that kind of return at this point.

 

Not that I think SF is actually going to sell, they have some good steam going.

I think they're silly for placing more value on a red hot 14-3 July over their record through the end of June. It took that red hot stretch of baseball just to get 2 games over .500.

 

Remember a couple of years ago when the AL was jumbled with mediocre .500 teams? Twins fans sure jumped at the first opportunity to wave the white flag. Other teams followed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Again, if the Jays and Royals haven’t decided to sell, their FO can’t read a standings sheet very well.

I wonder if the Jays and Royals are holding out a bit, because if the Giants/Padres/Tigers/etc. don't sell, they could really dominate the market, even with an imperfect asset like Kennedy (especially if the Royals are willing to eat a lot of cash).

 

Still, you wouldn't think the expected return on a guy like Kennedy would be all that much that a team couldn't "jump the gun" on the market without any crazy prospect cost.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But I would think that Ian Kennedy could have been acquired by any team willing to take on all of his contract. Surely no team wants to do that, but the amount KC will have to eat is likely the only thing anyone is haggling over, which I'm less than satisfied about.

Maybe KC is willing to eat quite a bit, in which case they can ask for some pretty good prospects? Especially if the Giants don't sell and Kennedy could be close to the top of the market.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Still, you wouldn't think the expected return on a guy like Kennedy would be all that much that a team couldn't "jump the gun" on the market without any crazy prospect cost.

Yep, and that's what I've basically been saying since they failed to nab Kimbrel. They're not going to go out and nab an elite reliever on July 1st and that's okay.

 

But the fact that they didn't aggressively go after a Kennedy or a LOOGY is really pissing me off right now. Even if you "overpay" for that guy, the cost is still pretty low and easily done with a farm system this deep through the middle.

 

There are options and I don't know which ones are best. What I do know is that "no option" is the worst choice possible, particularly when the team's bullpen has been teetering on the brink almost since Opening Day and has been costing the Twins games pretty consistently for the past six weeks.

 

Hell, they didn't even give Lewis or Stashak a real shot before two days ago.

 

Do something.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think they're silly for placing more value on a red hot 14-3 July over their record through the end of June. It took that red hot stretch of baseball just to get 2 games over .500.

Remember a couple of years ago when the AL was jumbled with mediocre .500 teams? Twins fans sure jumped at the first opportunity to wave the white flag. Other teams followed.

 

Maybe they will end up selling, but waiving the white flag a week before the deadline when they're red hot and the fanbase is starting to get excited again would buy them a week's more grief than they need to buy.

[USAFChief]

I'm talking all of them for the two rentals, if that's "whatever it takes".

No.

 

But that’s s a rather extreme argument to make, don’t you think?

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe KC is willing to eat quite a bit, in which case they can ask for some pretty good prospects? Especially if the Giants don't sell and Kennedy could be close to the top of the market.

 

I've never thought of KC as a team willing to eat money, but that certainly could be. Kennedy is just the only reliever I even care to acquire that I can think of any plausible reason he'd be available at this moment without having to pay a price that everyone knows is unpayable.

[USAFChief]

Yep, and that's what I've basically been saying since they failed to nab Kimbrel. They're not going to go out and nab an elite reliever on July 1st and that's okay.

 

But the fact that they didn't aggressively go after a Kennedy or a LOOGY is really pissing me off right now. Even if you "overpay" for that guy, the cost is still pretty low and easily done with a farm system this deep through the middle.

 

There are options and I don't know which ones are best. What I do know is that "no option" is the worst choice possible, particularly when the team's bullpen has been teetering on the brink almost since Opening Day and has been costing the Twins games pretty consistently for the past six weeks.

 

Hell, they didn't even give Lewis or Stashak a real shot before two days ago.

 

Do something.

You will not convince me it was impossible to avoid watching this bullpens performance over the past two weeks. Nor impossible to at least mitigate the damage.

 

Nor was it difficult to see it coming.

[HawksNest]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/falvey-on-twins-deadline-approach.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

What do we think?

 

Falvey says he’s “actively working that market to try and find ways to improve this club,” but strongly suggests it won’t come in the way of adding new core or high-end rental pieces. This year’s successes, he says, will surely come “from the group that’s in that clubhouse right now.” Deadline moves are likelier to function as “supplements” to the roster core.

[ashbury]

 

I totally agree with that plan if they can find a taker.  Way too many guys to protect and losing them for potentially nothing makes no sense.  The only issue I see with that approach is that if you are going after Stroman or any other guys with extra years of control the other team is going to want a top 100 player.  The Twins already stated they are not going to trade there three top 100 guys.  Maybe Larnach and Balazovic are close enough to entice another team but prices are likely going to be heavy for some of these guys.

 

They should be able to get some rental relief help by giving some combination of multiple top 9-40 type prospects though and like you said they can't keep them all or at least keep them protected form the rule V draft.  Why not get some value that might help you win the division and maybe a WS if you can?

Each trade target probably represents unique negotiations, but yes, I am thinking mostly in regards to a good reliever, where normally two middling prospects are enough and I'm saying don't be afraid to look silly by offering three. Or if going after a starter, begin with Larnach and then add guys lower-down and further-out, more and more until you get the other GM to kind of blink a little bit. Maybe that can't work, but except for a deGrom level of pitcher I have to think there's a chance.

 

I don't advocate stripping the farm system bare. But if culling is going to be necessary later anyway, make your assessments now and do it with purpose. They do have another draft coming up next June, I'm told

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Each trade target probably represents unique negotiations, but yes, I am thinking mostly in regards to a good reliever, where normally two middling prospects are enough and I'm saying don't be afraid to look silly by offering three. Or if going after a starter, begin with Larnach and then add guys lower-down and further-out, more and more until you get the other GM to kind of blink a little bit. Maybe that can't work, but except for a deGrom level of pitcher I have to think there's a chance.

 

I don't advocate stripping the farm system bare. But if culling is going to be necessary later anyway, make your assessments now and do it with purpose. They do have another draft coming up next June, I'm told

Also, there's something to be said for "you know your farm system better than anyone and should have faith in your ability to give away the prospects you care least about going forward".

[terrydactyls]

 

No.

But that’s s a rather extreme argument to make, don’t you think?

 

And that's the point.  When people posting are saying to make the trade whatever the cost, then you have to take that argument to it's extreme to show how silly it is.  Where the breakeven point lays is the hard part.  And that's why the Twins hired Falvey and Lavine rather than USAFChief and TerryDactyls1947 to run the front office.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've never thought of KC as a team willing to eat money, but that certainly could be. Kennedy is just the only reliever I even care to acquire that I can think of any plausible reason he'd be available at this moment without having to pay a price that everyone knows is unpayable.

Yeah, I wouldn't expect that from KC either -- but they've already cleared a lot of payroll obligations. They don't really *need* someone to save them from the Kennedy money. If they want to get better, they may view it as an opportunity to buy a few prospects.

 

Hopefully we're holding out because our sights are set higher than Kennedy, I suppose.

[jorgenswest]

Roenis Elias and Ian Kennedy - good "supplements" to the bullpen core.  Cody Stashak stays, Lewis Thorpe stays as the long man/6th starter/2nd LH. Kohl Stewart and goes back down. Blake Parker is traded or DFA'd. Duffy and Littel become the "swing" guys for injuries or when/if we need to go to an 8 man bullpen and are on the Rochester express with Thorpe and Stashak. New Bullpen:

 

Rogers

May

Elias

Kennedy

Harper

2 (or 3) of the following, fluid depending on usage, part of Rochester express - Stashak, Thorpe, Duffy, Littel.   

 

I prefer a 7 man bullpen because I like having Arreaz on the roster and there's no place for him if we have a 3 man bench unless we want to get rid of Schoop or Adrianza. He'll have a hard time staying on the 25 man when both Buxton and Cron are back. Cave goes down for Buxton, but who goes down for Cron? I have a feeling that the trade deadline may shed some light on this but I have no idea what that light will be.

 

 

I think Cron will be out for a while and they will be very sure before he returns. I would expect he shows the thumb is heeled with a rehab assignment. It could be a while before we have that roster crunch.

[KidBro]

As the Trade Game plays out longer, my concern is, how many deals can the Twins get done?  I certainly wanted 2 RP that slot in as the Twins top 3.  Possibly a SP that also slots in towards the top.  I don't trust Falvine and Co to have 2+ deals on the table where they ship 5+ prospects and cash out to two or three different teams at the deadline.  

 

I do think they should focus on Kennedy now.  Then as trade deadline gets nearer, we can look for the bigger haul from where ever those waters take us.  

[SomeGuy]

 

Including the horrible trades of Escobar and Pressly........... Dozier was a good trade though.

Escobar was a great trade. Duran (8th ranked prospect), Maciel (24th), and De La Trinidad for 2 months of Escobar!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Escobar was a great trade. Duran (8th ranked prospect), Maciel (24th), and De La Trinidad for 2 months of Escobar!

I think the poster was assuming that the trade made it less likely we could re-sign Escobar. I'm not really sure about that, but it could be a factor. And he is looking pretty good on his new contract.

 

Not that we really need position players right now, of course. To the extent that perhaps there's a downgrade from Escobar to Schoop, or to Marwin, it hasn't hurt us much and it might be worth adding Duran etc.