Proposed trade Offense

[Twinsfan63]

We all know the twins are REALLY struggling with clutch hitting with runners in scoring position. What do you think of this trade or what do you think it would take to get this player? Our old friend Eduardo Escobar. My arguments for getting him  .329 avg. with RISP   .279 RISP with 2 outs  and finally .556 with bases loaded.Would you be able to get him for Sano straight up or Sano plus a prospect? The only draw back is I can see is how would eduardo react to coming back. I believe there was some tension towards management? are there other better clutch hitters available?

[jorgenswest]

I am not confident that previous success with men in scoring position is a good predictor of future success.

 

I did wonder how the Twins compared to other teams. Good hitting teams should hit well relative to the league across the board. According to Fangraphs the Twins WOBA with men in scoring position ranks 4th.

[JW24]

I would welcome Escobar back happily! He is signed to a really reasonable contract through the 2021 season, and he would be 32 years old at that point.

 

I think Sano is too high of a price to pay for just Escobar. There is not a significant difference between Escobar and Adrianza in terms of positional versatility (Adrianza probably has the edge with his ability to play outfield), and with the improvement Adrianza has made at the plate this season, Escobar's offense wouldn't be a huge upgrade.

 

If the Twins looked to make a deal with Arizona for a package of Robbie Ray, Escobar, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley (some combination), I would be more willing to include Sano into an offer.

[Twinsfan63]

Those stats are this season I believe. also a benfit is the overall avg. being in the .290's vs..235 for Sano

[yarnivek1972]

Why is someone trading two years of control of Escobar for 2 years control of Sano?

[Twinsfan63]

I would have escobar just play 3rd or rotate him, aarez?,adrianza betweeen 2nd & 3rd with schoop coming off the bench.

[Twinsfan63]

Because he is a better player and performs better than Sano with RISP.

[Dantes929]

 

I am not confident that previous success with men in scoring position is a good predictor of future success.

I did wonder how the Twins compared to other teams. Good hitting teams should hit well relative to the league across the board. According to Fangraphs the Twins WOBA with men in scoring position ranks 4th.

Ok, I can see right away where you went wrong with your Fangraphs reference.   You combined the stats where the Twins did hit with guys on base with the times the Twins didn't hit with guys on base and we don't do that here when talking about how the Twins don't hit with guys on base.      Very little known fact.    All other teams are very happy with how their team does with guys on base.    

[JW24]

 

Because he is a better player and performs better than Sano with RISP.

 

The issue with this line of thought is that neither Sano nor Escobar are able to impact the situations they find themselves in at the plate. They are not able to control when they come to the plate with RISP.

 

Sano is cheaper and younger than Escobar, with much higher upside. AZ would do a 1-for-1 swap in a heartbeat. The Twins would never offer/accept that deal.

[Twinsfan63]

Interesting thought. Thank you.

[jz7233]

 

I would welcome Escobar back happily! He is signed to a really reasonable contract through the 2021 season, and he would be 32 years old at that point.

 

I think Sano is too high of a price to pay for just Escobar. There is not a significant difference between Escobar and Adrianza in terms of positional versatility (Adrianza probably has the edge with his ability to play outfield), and with the improvement Adrianza has made at the plate this season, Escobar's offense wouldn't be a huge upgrade.

 

If the Twins looked to make a deal with Arizona for a package of Robbie Ray, Escobar, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley (some combination), I would be more willing to include Sano into an offer.

I don't think Sano and a prospect is enough to get Escobar. Escobar is the best player there and he is the heart and soul of that team. Escobar and Adrianza is not on the same level. I would compare Escobar with Polanco. Escobar has more power and drives more runs in and Polanco hits better average. Just look at how many RBIs Escobar has driven in this season. He has outdone anyone on Twins team. Upside is just upside. It's just an imagination. Actual production is all that matters.

[JW24]

 

I don't think Sano and a prospect is enough to get Escobar. Escobar is the best player there and he is the heart and soul of that team. Escobar and Adrianza is not on the same level. I would compare Escobar with Polanco. Escobar has more power and drives more runs in and Polanco hits better average. Just look at how many RBIs Escobar has driven in this season. He has outdone anyone on Twins team. Upside is just upside. It's just an imagination. Actual production is all that matters.

 

When it comes to trading players, being the best player on a given team is irrelevant. Someone is the best player on every team, and someone is considered the heart and soul of every team.

 

What matters when trading players is this: team control/salary, age, future potential and value. Sano being 4 years younger, with the same amount of team control but at a much lower price, and significantly higher future potential and value means his value in this hypothetical trade is higher than Escobar's, hence why the Twins would not do a 1-for-1.

 

Escobar has a higher OPS than Sano this year, which is much more meaningful than RBI count. However, it would be expected as Sano enters his prime and Escobar starts to leave his that Sano will be the better player moving forward, at least from an offense perspective.

[Twinsfan63]

The question seems do you as a GM trade for today and go with better production now or do you hold onto potential?I can only speak for myself , If I was GM of the Twins given our current situation I would trade for Escobar. I think past regimes went the potential route only to have it never realized. Also after watching LUGO last night I would try to acquire him for relief help.I thnk him , Will Smith and Taylor Rogers would be a devasting 7,8,9 ending to a game.

[Danchat]

I’m all for looking at trading for a hitter if they can spark the lineup, but Escobar isn’t going anywhere.

[SomeGuy]

 

Because he is a better player and performs better than Sano with RISP.

By what measure is Sano poor in RISP besides his usual batting average and strikeouts issues?

 

RISP

Sano wOBA .349, wRC+ 117, OBP .340, OPS .846

Polanco wOBA .325, wRC+101, OBP .356, OPS .795

Kepler wOBA .308, wRC+ 89, OBP .346 OPS .717

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I am not confident that previous success with men in scoring position is a good predictor of future success.

I did wonder how the Twins compared to other teams. Good hitting teams should hit well relative to the league across the board. According to Fangraphs the Twins WOBA with men in scoring position ranks 4th.

 

Yeah, I was scouring stats on B-Ref in relation to this. The only "runners on" scenario their OPS is below the overall MLB average is with the bases loaded, where it plummets to .556.

 

Late & Close it's .696.

[jz7233]

 

When it comes to trading players, being the best player on a given team is irrelevant. Someone is the best player on every team, and someone is considered the heart and soul of every team.

 

What matters when trading players is this: team control/salary, age, future potential and value. Sano being 4 years younger, with the same amount of team control but at a much lower price, and significantly higher future potential and value means his value in this hypothetical trade is higher than Escobar's, hence why the Twins would not do a 1-for-1.

 

Escobar has a higher OPS than Sano this year, which is much more meaningful than RBI count. However, it would be expected as Sano enters his prime and Escobar starts to leave his that Sano will be the better player moving forward, at least from an offense perspective.

Being younger does not mean he's going to have a better career. How significant is Sano's future potential? Escobar has been getting better and better every year. Sano has been having various issues on and off the field. I find it's amusing that you think OPS means more than RBI count since baseball is all about getting runs batted in (RBI).

[Darius]

By what measure is Sano poor in RISP besides his usual batting average and strikeouts issues?

 

RISP

Sano wOBA .349, wRC+ 117, OBP .340, OPS .846

Polanco wOBA .325, wRC+101, OBP .356, OPS .795

Kepler wOBA .308, wRC+ 89, OBP .346 OPS .717

People don’t even know what they’re complaining about with Sami anymore. They just know they feel the need to complain about him.

 

A guy came into my office the other day talking Twins. We lamented their recent play, and he tried to end the conversation with, “maybe when they get rid of Sano they’ll get back on track.”

 

I asked him what he didn’t like about Sano, and it kept coming back to strikeouts. He couldn’t explain why a strikeout was worse than rolling a weak grounder over to short.

 

I then proceeded to ask why he doesn’t want a 26 year old hitting 35 HRs and OPSing .850 from the 7-8 spot in the lineup, and showed him some of the numbers for other guys hitting 7-8 in lineups around the league.

 

He then claimed he’s really been struggling lately, and it’s holidng the team back. Those numbers were due to his hot start. I then showed him his recently ended 11 game hitting streak and 1.300 OPS over that stretch.

 

He was still convinced Sano sucks when he left my office. There is no reason or logic behind this, it’s a bias that some have developed that is so deeply engrained that he could OPS .850 for the whole year and there will still be a group wanting him DFA’d next spring.

[Darius]

Being younger does not mean he's going to have a better career. How significant is Sano's future potential? Escobar has been getting better and better every year. Sano has been having various issues on and off the field. I find it's amusing that you think OPS means more than RBI count since baseball is all about getting runs batted in (RBI).

I find it amusing that you think past RBI count, which is largely dependent on those playing around you, is a better predictor of future success for a player than his on-base and slugging percentage combined, which are the two things the hitter has the most control over.

[Tomj14]

 

I then proceeded to ask why he doesn’t want a 26 year old hitting 35 HRs and OPSing .850 from the 7-8 spot in the lineup, and showed him some of the numbers for other guys hitting 7-8 in lineups around the league.
 

I am not arguing your other points, but Sano is a 26 year old third baseman that hopefully gets to 25 homers this year not 35 and has a career OPS of .818 and has never played in more than 116 games in a season.

I hope he is a 27 year old third basemen that does what you said.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, our problems on offense were fairly obvious at the beginning of the year... lots of low OBP high K guys... that adds up. We've made up for it by hitting home runs all over the place, but at the moment, we're seeing the other side of it.

 

I'm all for upgrades, but I'm not sure this one will do it... and one guy (even if you look beyond the SSS RISP numbers) isn't going to fix that. Personally, I think this problem will fix itself, and I'm far more concerned about our pitching at the moment.

[Riverbrian]

I have no interest in trading Sano at all. Let’s see what he could become... all he requires is a roster spot.

 

I’d love to have Escobar back just cause I was a fan but we got Escobar-ish players on the roster so I don’t see the need.

 

If the teams wants to make an offensive improvement at the trade deadline. A CF with a boat load of speed would fit in nicely.

 

Otherwise... the offense is nearly bulletproof... go get pitching.

[howeda7]

 

The issue with this line of thought is that neither Sano nor Escobar are able to impact the situations they find themselves in at the plate. They are not able to control when they come to the plate with RISP.

 

Sano is cheaper and younger than Escobar, with much higher upside. AZ would do a 1-for-1 swap in a heartbeat. The Twins would never offer/accept that deal.

I'm not so sure about that, and he certainly has a much lower floor. I would do that trade. He also may not be cheaper. 3 years of Escobar at $7 million vs 3 years of arbitration. Sano probably makes more, even with mediocre production.

[JW24]

 

I'm not so sure about that, and he certainly has a much lower floor. I would do that trade. He also may not be cheaper. 3 years of Escobar at $7 million vs 3 years of arbitration. Sano probably makes more, even with mediocre production.

 

Sano is 26 and still working toward reaching his prime. Escobar is 30, so he is currently in his prime and will be declining in the next couple years. Sano's floor over the next years is only lower than Escobar's if he continues to be plagued by injury.

 

In his age 26 season with the Twins, Escobar had an OPS of .754. Sano's OPS is .861 at the moment. Sano's career OPS is 70 points higher than Escobar's as well. I really like Escobar, but the Twins would come out on the bottom of a 1-for-1 swap.

 

As for arbitration, I hope Sano's production this year and next would result in him earning more than $7M per year. That bodes well for both the Twins and Sano!

[operation mindcrime]

I have no interest in trading Sano at all. Let’s see what he could become... all he requires is a roster spot.

 

I’d love to have Escobar back just cause I was a fan but we got Escobar-ish players on the roster so I don’t see the need.

 

If the teams wants to make an offensive improvement at the trade deadline. A CF with a boat load of speed would fit in nicely.

 

Otherwise... the offense is nearly bulletproof... go get pitching.

Billy Hamilton?

[jz7233]

 

I find it amusing that you think past RBI count, which is largely dependent on those playing around you, is a better predictor of future success for a player than his on-base and slugging percentage combined, which are the two things the hitter has the most control over.

If the player does not drive in runs, what good is he? I do think RBI matters more than OPS because baseball is all about driving runs in. Am I right or wrong?

[jud6312]

It's cute when people think counting stats are the end all.

[jz7233]

 

I have no interest in trading Sano at all. Let’s see what he could become... all he requires is a roster spot.

I’d love to have Escobar back just cause I was a fan but we got Escobar-ish players on the roster so I don’t see the need.

If the teams wants to make an offensive improvement at the trade deadline. A CF with a boat load of speed would fit in nicely.

Otherwise... the offense is nearly bulletproof... go get pitching.

Hamilton from KC?

[SomeGuy]

 

Honestly, our problems on offense were fairly obvious at the beginning of the year... lots of low OBP high K guys... that adds up. We've made up for it by hitting home runs all over the place, but at the moment, we're seeing the other side of it.

 

I'm all for upgrades, but I'm not sure this one will do it... and one guy (even if you look beyond the SSS RISP numbers) isn't going to fix that. Personally, I think this problem will fix itself, and I'm far more concerned about our pitching at the moment.

Our OBP has been great though.  Of the 14 players with more than 100 PA, 9 of them have OBP above league average (.323).

 

The 5 below league average are Sano (.315), Rosario (.310), Schoop (.308), Buxton (.308), Astudillo (.282).

[jud6312]

 

If the player does not drive in runs, what good is he? I do think RBI matters more than OPS because baseball is all about driving runs in. Am I right or wrong?

 

So if a player doesn't drive in runs because the people in front of him in the lineup can't get on base or into scoring position does said player then suck?

 

RBI is a lineup-dependent statistic that looks sexy on the back of a baseball card.