Proposed trade Offense

[jz7233]

 

People don’t even know what they’re complaining about with Sami anymore. They just know they feel the need to complain about him.

A guy came into my office the other day talking Twins. We lamented their recent play, and he tried to end the conversation with, “maybe when they get rid of Sano they’ll get back on track.”

I asked him what he didn’t like about Sano, and it kept coming back to strikeouts. He couldn’t explain why a strikeout was worse than rolling a weak grounder over to short.

I then proceeded to ask why he doesn’t want a 26 year old hitting 35 HRs and OPSing .850 from the 7-8 spot in the lineup, and showed him some of the numbers for other guys hitting 7-8 in lineups around the league.

He then claimed he’s really been struggling lately, and it’s holidng the team back. Those numbers were due to his hot start. I then showed him his recently ended 11 game hitting streak and 1.300 OPS over that stretch.

He was still convinced Sano sucks when he left my office. There is no reason or logic behind this, it’s a bias that some have developed that is so deeply engrained that he could OPS .850 for the whole year and there will still be a group wanting him DFA’d next spring.

Sano is certainly capable of hitting a weak or sharp grounder over to short as well as getting tons of strikeouts and pop-ups.

[jz7233]

 

So if a player doesn't drive in runs because the people in front of him in the lineup can't get on base or into scoring position does said player then suck?

 

RBI is a lineup-dependent statistic that looks sexy on the back of a baseball card. 

Baseball is all about scoring more runs than the other team. That's what makes RBI count so important.

 

 

 

[JW24]

 

If the player does not drive in runs, what good is he? I do think RBI matters more than OPS because baseball is all about driving runs in. Am I right or wrong?

 

You are neither right nor wrong, but you are more wrong than you are right.

 

The reason RBI are getting overlooked is because RBI totals can be inflated based on where you hit in the order. In a prior post you compared Escobar to Jorge Polanco in saying Escobar has a higher RBI total while Polanco's average is higher. Well, Escobar hits 3rd or 4th in the order, which are the highest RBI producing slots across every lineup in baseball. However, at every spot in the lineup, players have 2 primary goals -- to not make an out (OBP) and get themselves into scoring position/score (Slugging).

 

RBI is a more situational stat than OPS. It is not worthless, but it provides less indication of who a valuable hitter is compared to OPS.

[USAFChief]

 

So if a player doesn't drive in runs because the people in front of him in the lineup can't get on base or into scoring position does said player then suck?

 

RBI is a lineup-dependent statistic that looks sexy on the back of a baseball card. 

Until you don't drive in runs.

 

Then it's a stat open to ridicule by those who think games aren't won and lost by knocking in runs.

 

RBI are important. OPS is nice, and a good indication of a hitter's worth. But OBP is wildly overrated. At the end of the day, a walk is ok, but doesn't change the scoreboard.

 

I've heard all the arguments against my position, so it's futile to try to change my mind.

[jud6312]

 

Baseball is all about scoring more runs than the other team. That's what makes RBI count so important.

 

And if people don't get on base, they can't score. So what's your point?

[labcrazy]

I would trade Sano to get Escobar back in a heartbeat. better defense and better hitting.

[jz7233]

 

You are neither right nor wrong, but you are more wrong than you are right.

 

The reason RBI are getting overlooked is because RBI totals can be inflated based on where you hit in the order. In a prior post you compared Escobar to Jorge Polanco in saying Escobar has a higher RBI total while Polanco's average is higher. Well, Escobar hits 3rd or 4th in the order, which are the highest RBI producing slots across every lineup in baseball. However, at every spot in the lineup, players have 2 primary goals -- to not make an out (OBP) and get themselves into scoring position/score (Slugging).

 

RBI is a more situational stat than OPS. It is not worthless, but it provides less indication of who a valuable hitter is compared to OPS.

That makes sense. I just want to add, Escobar has been hitting 3rd in the lineup nowadays since he's been one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup. RBI is certainly a more situational stat than OPS. I would disagree that it provides less indication of who a valuable hitter is since driving runs in to help win the game for his team is the ultimate goal of a hitter coming to the plate. I value a hitter doing whatever he can to drive runs in more than anything.

[JW24]

 

That makes sense. I just want to add, Escobar has been hitting 3rd in the lineup nowadays since he's been one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup. RBI is certainly a more situational stat than OPS. I would disagree that it provides less indication of who a valuable hitter is since driving runs in to help win the game for his team is the ultimate goal of a hitter coming to the plate. I value a hitter doing whatever he can to drive runs in more than anything.

 

That is fair and a perfectly valid line of thought.

 

The counter point to your emphasis on RBI, strictly for conversation sake is this:

 

Buxton hits a triple, Kepler hits a sac fly to drive him in. Buxton did far more to help the Twins score a run than Kepler in that scenario, and without Buxton on base, Kepler's sac fly is just an ordinary out.

 

The objective in baseball is to score runs (differs slightly from driving in runs) on offense and prevent runs on defense. Counting stats only paint part of the picture in how teams go about achieving these goals.

[Otto von Ballpark]

RBI is a lineup-dependent statistic that looks sexy on the back of a baseball card.

As opposed to sexy on the front of a baseball card:

[howeda7]

 

Sano is 26 and still working toward reaching his prime. Escobar is 30, so he is currently in his prime and will be declining in the next couple years. Sano's floor over the next years is only lower than Escobar's if he continues to be plagued by injury.

 

In his age 26 season with the Twins, Escobar had an OPS of .754. Sano's OPS is .861 at the moment. Sano's career OPS is 70 points higher than Escobar's as well. I really like Escobar, but the Twins would come out on the bottom of a 1-for-1 swap.

 

As for arbitration, I hope Sano's production this year and next would result in him earning more than $7M per year. That bodes well for both the Twins and Sano!

Sano's days at 3B are numbered. He's already brutal there and it's going to get worse not better, IMO. As a 1B/DH hitting .270 with 35 HR's (which I think is his ceiling) is nice, but it's not nearly as valuable. Hitting .240 with 25 HR's which is more likely isn't worth much at all. I'll take Escobar.

 

As for the age difference, I don't see Sano being on this team past his service time either way.

[yarnivek1972]

Sano ranks 23rd of 34 thirdbasemen with at least 300 innings with a -3.1 UZR/150. He has 9 errors in 37 starts at 3b in 2019. 39 errors in 220 career 3b starts.

 

He might be the worst third baseman ever.

[Thrylos]

I think that the Twins will be better of if they go after someone like Hunter Pence for the 4th OF or platooning one of their lefties.  Plus he seems to always be in the post season with winning teams.   Sick and tired of them trotting Cave out there or playing infielders at the corners.

[yarnivek1972]

I think that the Twins will be better of if they go after someone like Hunter Pence for the 4th OF or platooning one of their lefties. Plus he seems to always be in the post season with winning teams. Sick and tired of them trotting Cave out there or playing infielders at the corners.

Marwin’s best rated position is left field.