Article: Faltering Romero Exposes Flaw in Falvey's Offseason

[Otto von Ballpark]

If people are willing to overpay, you take it. And people were willing to overpay for Pressly.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a very good pitcher. But they really overpayed for 1.3 years of service.

Did they "really overpay", though? Alcala's likely upside might be becoming Pressly a few years down the line. The other guy was in rookie league ball.

 

I don't think it was a bad return, but I don't know it was something that we just couldn't refuse. Especially if we wanted to contend in 2019 but had no plans to invest much in pitching -- a guy like Pressly could be really valuable to a club like the Twins right now, no?

Edited March 24, 2019 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

In other reliever news, the Twins released Tim Collins on Friday, who was promptly signed to a MLB deal by the Cubs.

 

To make room for Collins, the Cubs designated ex-Twin Brian Duensing.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/cubs-sign-tim-collins-designate-brian-duensing.html

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe more than this, I wonder what they were thinking about Fernando Rodney, who wasn't pitching that badly and for whom they got quite a bit less in trade last season than they did for Pressly. Not sure the Rodney Experience wouldn't be more beneficial than one additional stockpiled prospect at this point.

 

I wish that, if Romero's going to go back to Rochester, they'd let him get back into the rhythm of his old role rather than settling into a new one.

Rodney blew 6 of 31 save opps. That’s almost 20%. And while that is technically in line with his career save percentage, it really isn’t. The first few years of his career he wasn’t a closer. So, what shows up up as blown saves are “blown holds”. Like I said, the 9th inning is different. There are different standards. Just eyeballing Rodney’s year by years, it looks like his save percentage when he was actually the closer is upwards of 90%. Which would make 80% pretty bad.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I won't criticize the FO for not being aggressive trying to build a bullpen this year.  They TRIED last year with some veteran signings and it just did not work out because bullpen arms are so streaky from year to year.  I do not feel the need to criticize this aspect of the offseason because relievers to me are a crapshoot 90% of the time.

 

That being said, what is wrong with the criticism here?  The bullpen was not good last year and they did not take a whole lot of action.  You said you don't criticize the FO.  Is it your policy to just give them a pass?  While I am not interested in this discussion I actually like the passion and I think good points have been made.  It is good reading to me. What is the point of pouring cold water on the discussion?  It's hot stove talk.  Let if live and try not to let it irritate you so much.

I am not irritated.  That is my point.

 

I think the FO knows a LOT more than the posters here do about what they have and what direction they want to go. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

In other reliever news, the Twins released Tim Collins on Friday, who was promptly signed to a MLB deal by the Cubs.

To make room for Collins, the Cubs designated ex-Twin Brian Duensing.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/cubs-sign-tim-collins-designate-brian-duensing.html

Just like making a trade...oh wait, wrong context.  

[USAFChief]

If people are willing to overpay, you take it. And people were willing to overpay for Pressly.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's a very good pitcher. But they really overpayed for 1.3 years of service.

Overpay??

 

They stole Pressly.

[puckstopper1]

It is at times like these - with all the bullpen angst - that makes the miss on Tyler Jay hurt all the more.  He could, or probably SHOULD have been someone that could be helping the Twins right now.

[big dog]

 

It is at times like these - with all the bullpen angst - that makes the miss on Tyler Jay hurt all the more.  He could, or probably SHOULD have been someone that could be helping the Twins right now.

Yeah, I remember (or mis-remember) the dialogue as being he's a risky choice for a starter, but at least he'll be a high quality reliever.

...still waiting...

[howieramone2]

 

Overpay??

They stole Pressly.

Nope. It will turn out to be an excellent trade for us. 2 solid prospects for a little over a year of a relief pitcher. If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?

Edited March 26, 2019 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nope. It will turn out to be an excellent trade for us. 2 solid prospects for a little over a year of a relief pitcher. If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?

...the other 4 trades we made around the 2018 deadline? The ones that didn't involve 2019 assets?

[ewen21]

 

I am not irritated.  That is my point.

 

I think the FO knows a LOT more than the posters here do about what they have and what direction they want to go. 

Doesn't mean they were able to execute a plan, doesn't mean they are right

[gocgo]

I foresee many heartbreaking late inning losses this year.

Edited March 26, 2019 by gocgo

[howieramone2]

 

...the other 4 trades we made around the 2018 deadline? The ones that didn't involve 2019 assets?

What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

 

In the mean time, they keep winning championships, rather than waiting for the future.

[Shaitan]

Is Romero working in relief in AAA?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

It's not clear that Pressly brought the best return -- both TD and MLB ranked Duran from Arizona notably ahead of the other prospects we acquired at the deadline, Sickels gave Maciel from Arizona the same letter grade as the two from Houston, etc.

 

But even if you believe he did, he only brought that return *because he wasn't a two-month rental*. It wasn't a traditional deadline deal, so your rhetorical question "If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?" makes no sense. Trading him impacted our 2019 chances, as well as 2018, regardless of whether we extended him. Adding a dominant reliever to this year's Twins pen for less than $3 mil salary would be pretty great. There's a reason why most deadline deals don't involve trading good cheap assets from next year's team.

 

 

The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

The Astros are still $17 mil under the threshold yet this year. Cole is a FA after this season, but they'll shed $40 mil in salaries after this season too, and the threshold goes up, which could put them at $60 mil under the threshold after this season. After 2020, Springer is a free agent too, but they'll be shedding $50 mil at that time too. And the threshold isn't even close to any kind of hard cap -- the penalties for simply exceeding the threshold aren't that severe, unless you go way over ($40+ mil) or stay over for multiple years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml

 

They can easily sign a few relievers to Pressly-like extensions for $6-8 mil a year, and still have room to re-sign Cole or Springer or find replacements.

[howieramone2]

 

It's not clear that Pressly brought the best return -- both TD and MLB ranked Duran from Arizona notably ahead of the other prospects we acquired at the deadline, Sickels gave Maciel from Arizona the same letter grade as the two from Houston, etc.

 

But even if you believe he did, he only brought that return *because he wasn't a two-month rental*. It wasn't a traditional deadline deal, so your rhetorical question "If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?" makes no sense. Trading him impacted our 2019 chances, as well as 2018, regardless of whether we extended him. Adding a dominant reliever to this year's Twins pen for less than $3 mil salary would be pretty great. There's a reason why most deadline deals don't involve trading good cheap assets from next year's team.

 

 

The Astros are still $17 mil under the threshold yet this year. Cole is a FA after this season, but they'll shed $40 mil in salaries after this season too, and the threshold goes up, which could put them at $60 mil under the threshold after this season. After 2020, Springer is a free agent too, but they'll be shedding $50 mil at that time too. And the threshold isn't even close to any kind of hard cap -- the penalties for simply exceeding the threshold aren't that severe, unless you go way over ($40+ mil) or stay over for multiple years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml

 

They can easily sign a few relievers to Pressly-like extensions for $6-8 mil a year, and still have room to re-sign Cole or Springer or find replacements.

The Cubbies and Red Sox said no mas due to luxury penalties. Houston most likely will be one of the next.   Also, Falvey told all of us on Inside Twins, that was the best deal and it was too good to pass up. You really think those who rate prospects are always going to agree? I you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline? 

Edited March 28, 2019 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Cubbies and Red Sox said no mas due to luxury penalties. Houston most likely will be one of the next.  

The Red Sox are already $30 mil above the threshold, or in other words, $47 mil ahead of Houston. The Cubs are $16 mil above the threshold too, $33 mil ahead of Houston. Houston's only in 7th place in luxury tax payroll, and there's a big gap between 3rd and 4th place.

 

Also note the Astros payroll already has a bunch of relievers earning $4-8 mil on short term contracts in addition to Pressly -- if any of them were extended or replaced at those prices, it wouldn't actually increase their luxury tax liabilities above 2019 levels either.

 

The Astros aren't even close to a spot where a contract like Pressly's would have serious luxury tax implications.

 

 

Also, Falvey told all of us on Inside Twins, that was the best deal and it was too good to pass up. You really think those who rate prospects are always going to agree? I you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline? 

Obviously Falvey is going to say it was too good to pass up, because he didn't pass it up. What else is he supposed to say?

 

It may even have been a solid prospect return for a 2019 asset, but it's still costing the Twins in 2019. Think about it this way: if the Twins could flip those two prospects today for a dominant reliever making under $3 mil in 2019, you'd also have to consider that pretty strongly, no? We could use that player right now, and if things go south, we could still flip him at the 2019 deadline (assuming we didn't extend him affordably ourselves).

 

I think that illustrates the cost of this deal to the Twins pretty well. And unlike the other prospects we acquired at the 2018 deadline, those two Houston prospects will have to make up this 2019 cost for this deal to turn out well.

[Mike Sixel]

when people look at trades for prospects, they almost always discount the current year or three's cost, and only look to the future. Like this year doesn't count in the equation....

[USAFChief]

 

What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

Ignoring the fact Spycake has proven your claim about Houston's payroll to be false...what, pray tell, does Houston's payroll have to do with the Twins, and/or the Pressly trade??

[Jim Hahn]

What's your point? Pressly brought the best return. Are you saying we should turn down the best deal and be content only with lesser deals? Also, no way in the world we were going to extend a relief pitcher. We have bigger fish to fry. The Astros are or will be right up against the luxury tax. Take a look at who they will be losing after next season. No way they can kept them all if they extend relief pitchers.

I think the point is Pressly would be the best reliever on the Twins, with the possible exception of Rogers, right now. Will it turn out to be a good trade for the Twins? There is good chance that will happen. But right now, the Twins sure could use a dominant late inning reliever. Maybe all the guys being counted on will come thru with productive years. Maybe if they don't, Romero or someone else will come up and be dominant.

 

The problem is right now, Pressly would look pretty darn good in the Twins bullpen. There is certainly nothing wrong with people pointing that out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the point is Pressly would be the best reliever on the Twins, with the possible exception of Rogers, right now. Will it turn out to be a good trade for the Twins? There is good chance that will happen. But right now, the Twins sure could use a dominant late inning reliever. Maybe all the guys being counted on will come thru with productive years. Maybe if they don't, Romero or someone else will come up and be dominant.

The problem is right now, Pressly would look pretty darn good in the Twins bullpen. There is certainly nothing wrong with people pointing that out.

 

even if Romero comes up and is great, Pressley would still be good to have on the team.

 

I'm not sure there is a "good chance" that it will work, what are the odds of either player contributing even 1 WAR in any given season?