Damning article in the Washington Post re: Pressly / Analytics

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

you get to crow when/if the two prospects acquired amount to anything remotely close to Pressly's value.

 

You hit it on the head, its way too soon to evaluate who 'won' the trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So, basically, there is no timeline in which we can question their results? I mean, I want that job.

 

And, I know you aren't saying this....

Then why say it?

 

And whether the player says the Twins were good at it or not, the Twins put Pressly on that path in the first place. If the player doesn't acknowledge what the team did to help him be a better player... *shrugs*

 

And this is not me making excuses for a lot of the underperformance of the past season. I have some serious questions about how things are being handled and whether this front office is capable of building a winning team in the 21st century.

 

But in this specific example, there is solid evidence the Twins did right by Pressly, even if the Astros were capable of doing more right.

[Mike Sixel]

Since someone asked.... I want to read on line, over and over, how the Twins are the best at something that matters to baseball outcomes. The best. Not just as good as every other team, not getting better. I want this team to be great at stuff. I want other teams to steal their ideas and people. I want other fans to ask why their team can't do what the Twins do.

 

I don't want to read that it just can't happen in a mid market team. Or that it takes a long time (with no timeline at all) and that I just need to be patient (forever?). Or that 1 year deals are the only good deals. Or that they are great at bargain hunting, but nothing else. Or that they are still rebuilding, year after year.

 

I want to read about how great the Twins are. I said I'd give the FO three years to show me good or bad......they have a year left to show me they can get this thing headed in a real direction we can trust. So far, they've done the trade off assets part a lot.....let's see if they can start adding MLB assets now.

[jkcarew]

 

It probably helps that the Astros have a bullpen full of capable relievers. They don’t have a Tyler Duffey, Phil Hughes and Matt Belisle just there to keep the bullpen bench warm.

True statement for sure.  But everything's relative.  I've always had the impression that whoever Molly 'liked' or 'trusted' most relative to the others (even if the others had been good representations of MLB relief pitchers)...Molitor still would have over-used the favorites.  Especially in the face of this type of pressure/leverage.  I guess it's on the FO that we'll never know how much better his BP usage would have been with a good/deep/consistent pen.

[Doomtints]

The Astros and the Twins started rebuilding at about the same time. There is zero question the Astros did a better job of it. Pressly's quote shouldn't surprise anybody. I see some people saying we shouldn't read too much into it, but come on, look at the records of the two teams since they first started rebuilding.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Astros and the Twins started rebuilding at about the same time. There is zero question the Astros did a better job of it. Pressly's quote shouldn't surprise anybody. I see some people saying we shouldn't read too much into it, but come on, look at the records of the two teams since they first started rebuilding.

 

While I'm envious of the Astros' situation, the original Twins GM got canned for a reason so I wouldn't think the mess he left behind would be counted against the new GM's rebuild timeline.

 

When the Astros bottomed out they were intentionally tanking with purpose and a long term blueprint. The Twins bottomed out completely unintentionally and made decisions for short term preservation.

 

Though I'd appreciate an expedited remedy. 

[Doomtints]

 

While I'm envious of the Astros' situation, the original Twins GM got canned for a reason so I wouldn't think the mess he left behind would be counted against the new GM's rebuild timeline.

 

When the Astros bottomed out they were intentionally tanking with purpose and a long term blueprint. The Twins bottomed out completely unintentionally and made decisions for short term preservation.

 

Though I'd appreciate an expedited remedy. 

 

The point is the Astros knew how to rebuild and the Twins didn't. No one wants to hear the old excuses why. The point is no one should be surprised when a former player says he is surprised at how much better the Astros coaches are, no one should doubt his sincerity or motivations or make excuses. THE ASTROS ARE BETTER. THIS SHOULDN'T SHOCK YOU.

[nicksaviking]

 

The point is the Astros knew how to rebuild and the Twins didn't. No one wants to hear the old excuses why. The point is no one should be surprised when a former player says he is surprised at how much better the Astros coaches are, no one should doubt his sincerity or motivations or make excuses. THE ASTROS ARE BETTER. THIS SHOULDN'T SHOCK YOU.

 

I can't imagine anyone is shocked by the claim that the Astros are better than the Twins. I was simply pointing out that to compare the current state of both organizations isn't apples to apples considering the Astros hired a progressive baseball mind for their GM gig in 2011 which was the same time the Twins decided to do the exact opposite and re-hire Terry Ryan. The Astros have a six year head start on the Twins as far as analytics and new baseball ideas go.

[Jim Hahn]

So according to this article the Astros made Pressly a better pitcher by teaching him to use one pitch to set up another. Perhaps sequence his pitches better. Is there really anything new here? Isn't this what all organisations do? In fact pitchers have been doing this since breaking balls were invented. In fact it is probably the one thing that made Gibson a better pitcher and perhaps one of the things that can make Berrios an ace.

 

Can analytics help this process ? Maybe. Do pitchers and catchers kind of have to figure this out on the go based on what's working, who the batter is, what the umpire is calling, and the game situation?

 

The other things being discussed here,I really am less concerned with this front office copying what works for the Astros (or the Brewers) than I am with them figuring out what will work for them. I hope they they have their own vision, understand their organization's strengths and weaknesses and are smart enough to learn from their mistakes.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, basically, there is no timeline in which we can question their results? I mean, I want that job.

 

And, I know you aren't saying this.....but the player literally said the Twins weren't good at this stuff yet. Or, not good enough. 

 

I feel like what he said was "Not as good" and I think the distinction matters.  The Astros are the best, the Twins are in the company of 28 other teams on that front.

 

The problem is the gap, but none of us have much context for where the Twins stand on that.  The only thing we do know is that they were functionally at the bottom of the 30 team pile.  Now they've improved.  How much....I have no idea?  If I have to put a timetable on it - it's on the development and progress of young players they drafted and developed.  

 

I feel like we've seen good signs: Gibson, Pressley, Berrios, etc.  But it's hard to know for sure until the talent they've brought in starts to arrive.  And at key moments like this offseason.  I'll be ready to make some pretty sweeping claims come February, depending on what they do/do not do.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I feel like what he said was "Not as good" and I think the distinction matters.  The Astros are the best, the Twins are in the company of 28 other teams on that front.

 

The problem is the gap, but none of us have much context for where the Twins stand on that.  The only thing we do know is that they were functionally at the bottom of the 30 team pile.  Now they've improved.  How much....I have no idea?  If I have to put a timetable on it - it's on the development and progress of young players they drafted and developed.  

 

I feel like we've seen good signs: Gibson, Pressley, Berrios, etc.  But it's hard to know for sure until the talent they've brought in starts to arrive.  And at key moments like this offseason.  I'll be ready to make some pretty sweeping claims come February, depending on what they do/do not do.

 

Buxton, Kepler, Sano......for every guy advancing, they have guys that aren't. As for talent, we are in year two, and they've not added much at the MLB level.....so it's pretty hard to assess that right now.

 

I'm interested in the etc. list....because they couldn't even figure out Astudillo should catch the first time he was up.....heck, he played CF, and wasn't up again until late in the year. How hard was it to know that Astudillo was a better option than Wilson?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Buxton, Kepler, Sano......for every guy advancing, they have guys that aren't. As for talent, we are in year two, and they've not added much at the MLB level.....so it's pretty hard to assess that right now.

 

I'm interested in the etc. list....because they couldn't even figure out Astudillo should catch the first time he was up.....heck, he played CF, and wasn't up again until late in the year. How hard was it to know that Astudillo was a better option than Wilson?

 

I don't know, but I feel like there have been nice finds - Cave, Austin, Austidillo, Odorizzi.  Yes, there have been a few guys falling apart too.

 

But I don't view sports as the same as a healthcare company.  You simply can't turn things over in a day.  Even some of the best FOs take time to implement their best.  Houston didn't suddenly start dominating.  Oakland is constantly up and down.  Milwaukee too.  

 

I feel like part of it is your expectations are unrealistic relative to how success actually happens in sports.  Who has walked in and by the start of Year 2 has the team on a permanent winning model of domination?  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So, basically, there is no timeline in which we can question their results? .

 

Said absolutely no one in this thread.

 

They are just saying that 2 years is not enough, and that the results within that timeframe have been as expected. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know, but I feel like there have been nice finds - Cave, Austin, Austidillo, Odorizzi.  Yes, there have been a few guys falling apart too.

 

But I don't view sports as the same as a healthcare company.  You simply can't turn things over in a day.  Even some of the best FOs take time to implement their best.  Houston didn't suddenly start dominating.  Oakland is constantly up and down.  Milwaukee too.  

 

I feel like part of it is your expectations are unrealistic relative to how success actually happens in sports.  Who has walked in and by the start of Year 2 has the team on a permanent winning model of domination?  

 

I've never said a day....or even that they would be done in 2 years. But, if that is the list of players they've added (and then you subtract who is gone), it's kind of hard to see progress.

 

The Astros, Cubs, and Brewers all lapped this team in rebuilds. The Rays and A's put even less resources into their rosters, and beat up the Twins.

 

So, yes, more than 2 years to finish the job. No doubt, and I've said that here over and over.....

 

As for changing  the 5th largest company in the US....that seems like it might be harder.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Said absolutely no one in this thread.

 

They are just saying that 2 years is not enough, and that the results within that timeframe have been as expected. 

 

I have never once said "finish" in 2 years either, but I have asked when we can see clear progress, and when we can judge the FO on results. It's like when everyone here said they'd be good in 16, then in 17, then in 18......and people who pointed out that it wasn't working were told not to judge the team yet.....so, when can we judge results? If it is up to you, how long would you wait to see better results?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I've never said a day....or even that they would be done in 2 years. But, if that is the list of players they've added (and then you subtract who is gone), it's kind of hard to see progress.

 

 

As for changing  the 5th largest company in the US....that seems like it might be harder.....

 

Again though, what have we seen in sports?  The evidence indicates it will be harder.  These guys have had two years.  That's it.

 

The best in baseball - Houston - took the better part of what?  5-7 years?  Sounds like your timeline.  At least if you're being realistic.  The evidence indicates it takes about that long to get things right.  This FO isn't even close to the half-way point right now.  You might say "I'm not saying a day or a year", but the tone of your posts indicates the exact opposite of that.

[ashbury]

Building a MLB analytics team should not take 6-8 years.

Concur. I am bothered on this front in terms both of process, and of results. It boggles my mind that Jack Goin wasn't re-deployed within the organization almost immediately; he's apparently a good guy, who was put in over his head by the prior regime to run a state of the art analytics program.

 

Both Falvey and Levine surely daydreamed, when thinking about a future job at the next level, about the many talented people they crossed paths with in their respective roles, and who they would want to go after if they ever needed a hire. Much of what they inherited with the Twins was reasonably functional and did not merit a quick replacement, but the Analytics situation was manifestly in need of quick revamping. Jack Goin's resume shows him as remaining at Research Director until August 2017 when FalVine had come on board eight months earlier; that was unfair to a generalist like Goin, and it was unfair to the organization. FalVine should have been ready to hit the ground running, in this important facet of team management.

 

The front-office listing at mlb.com,

 https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

may or may not reflect reality, but when I see Josh Kalk's name dangling as it does without any implied chain of command, I feel as though the analytics effort remains nearly as much of an organizational afterthought as under the prior regime. Kalk sounds like a good get, but he should be in a department of a dozen others similar to him.

 

(BTW, while doing a little fact-checking on this, I noticed that the Astros' Mike Fast recently left his position at a Director level within their organization. I would think other teams would have his phone ringing off the hook, and hopefully the Twins are part of this.)

 

Apart from these "process" concerns, which Pressly's quoted remarks also apply toward, I remain unimpressed with the personnel moves that would seem highly analytics-driven. I'm a broken record with regard to the past two Rule 5 drafts. And we don't seem to do better than treading water where it comes to minor leaguers allowed to depart versus ones we bring in.

 

Year One was more than enough time to see progress in the process, and Year Two should have been showing some results. I'm really disappointed relative to what I thought we were getting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Again though, what have we seen in sports?  The evidence indicates it will be harder.  These guys have had two years.  That's it.

 

The best in baseball - Houston - took the better part of what?  5-7 years?  Sounds like your timeline.  At least if you're being realistic.  The evidence indicates it takes about that long to get things right.  This FO isn't even close to the half-way point right now.  You might say "I'm not saying a day or a year", but the tone of your posts indicates the exact opposite of that.

 

My tone is asking when we can see clear progress, on the field. And, my tone is that when a player says negative things about the Twins, it's ok to admit that here......and not make excuses. That's where this whole thing started, with a player saying the Twins weren't good enough yet, and people coming into the thread and saying he didn't say that....or that we can't expect visible progress. See the post above for another perspective.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I expect this isn't the first time Falvey and Levine have implemented systems to generate the information they need to develop players. I also expect they have the people in place to decipher through the systems and translate the information to the coaching staff and players.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. The Twins have Jeff Pickler in place as the designated disseminator of data, but we can't really answer to the quality of the data or the reception by the players and coaches. That is significant change management and systems improvement.

 

A team like the Astros with that type of mentality for several/many years has already been through that change management process. There is long history of conservatism in baseball youth, amateur, minor league, MLB, independent... it doesn't change quickly

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

Both Falvey and Levine surely daydreamed, when thinking about a future job at the next level, about the many talented people they crossed paths with in their respective roles, and who they would want to go after if they ever needed a hire.  

That's how I feel...surely they had at least the framework of a vision for their way forward when they interviewed, right? Wouldn't that have been part of the reason they got hired in the first place?

 

I'm sure not everyone has accepted job offers, but still. "It's only been two years" sounds more like an excuse than a reasonable explanation for what appears to be little progress, anywhere, except perhaps depth at the lower minor league level.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

My tone is asking when we can see clear progress, on the field. And, my tone is that when a player says negative things about the Twins, it's ok to admit that here......and not make excuses. That's where this whole thing started, with a player saying the Twins weren't good enough yet, and people coming into the thread and saying he didn't say that....or that we can't expect visible progress. See the post above for another perspective.

 

But then you like posts that call 2 years an excuse.  Which is it?  

 

We might all feel like it should be doable in two years.....but if that's never happened (even for very successful organizations) than maybe it isn't actually doable.  Or at least not ideal.

 

At some point, the reality of how organizations restructure successfully should inform our expectations....no? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

But then you like posts that call 2 years an excuse.  Which is it?  

 

We might all feel like it should be doable in two years.....but if that's never happened (even for very successful organizations) than maybe it isn't actually doable.  Or at least not ideal.

 

At some point, the reality of how organizations restructure successfully should inform our expectations....no? 

 

Again, I literally posted here over and over, that I don't expect it to be done in 2 years.....see Chief and Ash and other posts here. Clearly I'm not alone in not seeing much progress. I'm not sure what you are arguing, since I don't expect it to be done. I expect to see on the field progress. And not a catcher playing CF, and then not being up.....

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

The front-office listing at mlb.com,

 https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

may or may not reflect reality, but when I see Josh Kalk's name dangling as it does without any implied chain of command, I feel as though the analytics effort remains nearly as much of an organizational afterthought as under the prior regime. Kalk sounds like a good get, but he should be in a department of a dozen others similar to him.

 

(BTW, while doing a little fact-checking on this, I noticed that the Astros' Mike Fast recently left his position at a Director level within their organization. I would think other teams would have his phone ringing off the hook, and hopefully the Twins are part of this.)

 

Apart from these "process" concerns, which Pressly's quoted remarks also apply toward, I remain unimpressed with the personnel moves that would seem highly analytics-driven. I'm a broken record with regard to the past two Rule 5 drafts. And we don't seem to do better than treading water where it comes to minor leaguers allowed to depart versus ones we bring in.

 

Year One was more than enough time to see progress in the process, and Year Two should have been showing some results. I'm really disappointed relative to what I thought we were getting.

 

Though he was a friend of the site, I wasn't concerned about the Jack Goin situation as I assumed other analytically astute personnel would replace him. Looking at your link I see two people who appear to be under Kalk:

 

Analyst, Baseball Research Zane MacPhee

Analyst, Baseball Research Heather Hunt

 

I'm not sure if I'm understanding you correctly, but is your assertion that these three make up the entirety of the analytics team? I can't imagine that's the case, but if it is, yeah, I'd be beyond disappointed. 

 

As far as seeing progress, I don't know that we'd see a whole lot if we're not behind the scenes. I doubt the 2013 Astros showed a ton of what appeared to be progress compared to the 2011 team either.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

If the analytics team is 3 people that is a complete joke. The Astros analytics team can't even fit on my mobile screen there's that many people.

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/team/front_office.jsp?c_id=hou

[ashbury]

I'm not sure if I'm understanding you correctly, but is your assertion that these three make up the entirety of the analytics team?

My assertion is that I don't understand what I'm seeing either.

 

I don't believe the team size is 3.

 

From what I've read of Kalk, he seems to be a valuable guy, but as a cog in the machine. He profiles wrong (IMO) for the guy that will lead an analytics team - conversely if they had the analytics team I want, then the org chart wouldn't get down in the weeds of listing them all. They don't list all their scouts on that page, for instance.

 

Again, though, what we are shown on that page may not correspond to reality.

[nicksaviking]

 

My assertion is that I don't understand what I'm seeing either.

 

I don't believe the team size is 3.

 

From what I've read of Kalk, he seems to be a valuable guy, but as a cog in the machine. He profiles wrong (IMO) for the guy that will lead an analytics team - conversely if they had the analytics team I want, then the org chart wouldn't get down in the weeds of listing them all. They don't list all their scouts on that page, for instance.

 

Again, though, what we are shown on that page may not correspond to reality.

 

Well it certainly would be nice for our local journalists to write up a piece on the organizational flow chart.

 

Though for some reason our local reporters can't even figure out when this team is having managerial interviews so I'm not holding out a ton of hope for something more detailed.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Again, I literally posted here over and over, that I don't expect it to be done in 2 years.....see Chief and Ash and other posts here. Clearly I'm not alone in not seeing much progress. I'm not sure what you are arguing, since I don't expect it to be done. I expect to see on the field progress. And not a catcher playing CF, and then not being up.....

 

What are you proposing to measure?  As nick said, the 2012/2013 Astros certainly would've failed by the measures you're using to judge the Twins.  And you'd have been hilariously wrong.  Mike Sixel: Astros Fan would've had his torch out for that 51-111 season in Houston.  Where Chris Carter and his -20 defensive WAR and 84 wRC+ had almost 600 ABs and something called Lucas Harrell got to pitch himself to a 6-17 record with a 5.89 ERA. How would that Mike Sixel feel now in 2018?

 

I'm sure there were fans in Houston in 2013 lambasting Luhnow as a nerd who lost their favorite team 111 games and there was no "progress" on the field.  And their criticism, in whatever narrow way they framed it (as I'd argue you are doing) would have justified them to see the FO as failing.  Meanwhile, behind the scenes, they were building a god damn juggernaut.

 

Perhaps we simply don't have the means to measure or draw conclusions.  Our fandom blinds us to that reality so that we think we can.  But really....we have no clue.

[Jim Hahn]

One of the assertions made in this thread implies that the Astros are way ahead of other teams when it comes to assembling and preparing a bullpen. Certainly, that aspect of their team has gone well for them this year. It is easy to forget that their bullpen very nearly derailed their winning in the postseason last year. When it comes to bullpens, things can blow up in a hurry or go incredibly well.

 

Personally I think they have done well assembling a well rounded team . I would be careful thinking that they have some magic formula or that other ways of doing things can't work as well. There isn't all that much difference between the top half dozen teams in baseball ans they all pursue different formulas. Both San Francisco and Kansas City have had much recent success while neither being all that analytically inclined. They had very different paths to success as well.

 

If the Twins are going to jump up to being one of the best teams in baseball within the next 2 years, it will be largely because of core assembled by the previous management team. If this core doesn't come together, it is going to take longer. I hope this management team is both patient enough if that is what is necessary and/or aggressive enough to supplement that group or blow up if that looks to be the better route.

 

 

B

[Vanimal46]

What are you proposing to measure? As nick said, the 2012/2013 Astros certainly would've failed by the measures you're using to judge the Twins. And you'd have been hilariously wrong. Mike Sixel: Astros Fan would've had his torch out for that 51-111 season in Houston. Where Chris Carter and his -20 defensive WAR and 84 wRC+ had almost 600 ABs and something called Lucas Harrell got to pitch himself to a 6-17 record with a 5.89 ERA. How would that Mike Sixel feel now in 2018?

 

I'm sure there were fans in Houston in 2013 lambasting Luhnow as a nerd who lost their favorite team 111 games and there was no "progress" on the field. And their criticism, in whatever narrow way they framed it (as I'd argue you are doing) would have justified them to see the FO as failing. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, they were building a god damn juggernaut.

 

Perhaps we simply don't have the means to measure or draw conclusions. Our fandom blinds us to that reality so that we think we can. But really....we have no clue.

We can measure players who are making a fundamental change to their game. For pitchers, who has changed their pitch mix for the better? Did they change their arm slot to create a different perception of their pitches? For hitters, did they change their launch angle to hit for more power? Did they change their approach at the plate to generate more contact or walks?

 

We read about these things all the time for other teams. So far in this regimes tenure they have these success stories:

 

Kyle Gibson

Ryan Pressly

Eddie Rosario

 

I would hope there are more to come, since they traded one away already.

[h2oface]

 

(BTW, while doing a little fact-checking on this, I noticed that the Astros' Mike Fast recently left his position at a Director level within their organization. I would think other teams would have his phone ringing off the hook, and hopefully the Twins are part of this.)

 

Yes!

Mike Fast.

Just the sound of that makes me smile.

Anything and everything fast. 

Let's get Mike Fast, fast!