Max Kepler: Trade or Keep?

[mickeymental]

see if the yankees will take kepler for aaron hicks.

[mlhouse]

For me it would depend on what value you get back although I would lean to trading him.

 

As most know, my position is you go all in with the next wave of prospects.  Anyone who thinks Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, and Lewis should play one game in the minors is crazy from my perspective.  Get them all up to the majors and take your lumps.  

 

I think next year's outfield needs to be Cave, Kirilloff, and Wade.  Buxton, and Kepler would be in that mix too.  With Rooker and Sano, those 7 players would share 5 of the positional spots, 3 OF, 1B, and DH.  Do you want an extended look at Austin?  Then maybe that pushed Kepler out with more certainty.

 

I don't know if Cave and Wade are true MLB players of any quality.  But we need to find out over an extended period.  Buxton, Kepler, and Sano all have question marks.  But these questions have to be answered.

[ashbury]

Yes. Definately.

Is this some kind of joke, or are you serious?

[ashbury]

I thought Kepler was hitting lefties better this season yet his BA is in the low 200s and his HR rate is in the teens.

I hadn't looked at his splits lately. It's interesting: against lefty pitchers he's kind of holding his own, with a .248 BA and enough goodies to amount to a .758 OPS, with a normal enough looking BABIP to suggest luck isn't playing much role either direction.

 

If he was killing righties, on top of that, then he'd be immensely valuable. He's not, and thus he's not. His BABIP is gruesomely low, a topic that has been discussed greatly, elsewhere.

 

Is it a flukey SSS against lefties, or a flukey less-SSS against righties? That's for hitting coach Rowson to figure out, I suppose. I tend to think there's a tweak to his game, against the right-handers, that remains to be found and will unlock his potential.

[Winston Smith]

 

Is this some kind of joke, or are you serious?

Assuming yes! I think it's possible for Chief to be both at the same time, very tricky fella.

[ashbury]

Assuming yes! I think it's possible for Chief to be both at the same time, very tricky fella.

Can anyone do Chief's work better than Chief himself, or should we just sit back and let him do it?

[USAFChief]

 

Is this some kind of joke, or are you serious?

No. Of course not.

[ashbury]

No. Of course not.

The panel would also have accepted, "Yes. Definately."

 

edited by USAFChief

[ewen21]

 

 

Anyone who thinks Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, and Lewis should play one game in the minors is crazy from my perspective.  Get them all up to the majors and take your lumps.  

 

Gordon is not deserving by any stretch, Kiriloff is 20 and has not played above A ball, Lewis is 19 and has not played a game above A ball, Rooker struck out 150 times in AA and had an OPS south of .800.

 

How is that for perspective?

[Nine of twelve]

 

Heh, don't trade young guys that are down, they have no value. Don't trade young guys that are good, they are part of the future. don't trade minor leaguers for veterans, because then you can't sustain competitiveness. Don't sign SPs to long term deals, too risky.....Don't sign position players to long term deals, because they won't be good at the end......

 

How do people expect to get a good team here?

Draft only good players, develop them to their fullest,and sign them to team-friendly long-term contracts just before they blossom. Simple, but not easy. And not likely to succeed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Right now there are 35 hitters in the majors at or over 4 WAR (ESPN) maybe 5 more that could get there. and 20 over 5.

Does everybody think that Kepler can be a top 40 major league hitter?

JT is sitting at 4.5 which is 23rd in baseball and 1.5 higher than the next catcher.

If anybody thinks that Kepler alone is getting him they are crazy, he is a good start, but the Twins would have to get up a couple other top prospects as well. Which I am all for.

 

Actually yes, I think the talent is there for Kepler to put it together and be an .850ish OPS guy with above average defense. That's a 4-5 WAR player in the corner.

 

And if you read my post, I made it clear that Kepler wouldn't get JT. Trading him opens a hole that we don't have someone to fill, and he's young enough that improvement is quite possible. I don't think that the return for Kepler would be worth it. His OPS is roughly ML average. His defense is above. Given his age, I think rolling the dice on him improving is probably the best odds. 

[Mike Sixel]

In looking, I think JT is only signed for 2 more years.....I would give up less for him than I thought, given that. 

[yarnivek1972]

Keep him. He's stil relatively young and I feel like he can still OPS north of .800. I don't think he would garner much in trades, but has significant value defensively for a team that can't rely on Buxton yet. In another thread I suggested bringing AJ Pollock. If they did that it would offer more flexibility and allow Kepler to get some work at 1B and relegate Cave to AAA.

Cave has the second highest OPS among Twins outfielders. You want to relegate him to AAA why exactly?

[yarnivek1972]

Gordon is not deserving by any stretch, Kiriloff is 20 and has not played above A ball, Lewis is 19 and has not played a game above A ball, Rooker struck out 150 times in AA and had an OPS south of .800.

 

How is that for perspective?

How many games would you expect a guy drafted last year out of high school to have played above A ball?

[Thrylos]

 

Max Kepler and lowest value doesn't make sense. This season he's produced the highest fWAR and bWAR of his career.

 

Indeed.  A tad above 2.

 

Love the Yelich comparisons.  Career 96 OPS+ for Max (98 this season) vs career 127 for Yelich (158 this season.)

 

Maybe Max should wear his wolf suit and try to make mischief of one kind or another, because he is not cutting it...

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cave has the second highest OPS among Twins outfielders. You want to relegate him to AAA why exactly?

 

He and Kepler are hitting nearly identically by wrc+.......and Kepler is a better defender. Oh, and Wade exists. And Rooker. And Buxton and Rosario.* But I'd rather have Cave than another option that might be mentioned just below here.....I think Kiriloff is here by September, and then "for sure" in 2020....

 

*note, I am pretending Grossman does not exist in this universe.....at least in a Twins' uni.

[yarnivek1972]

He and Kepler are hitting nearly identically by wrc+.......and Kepler is a better defender. Oh, and Wade exists. And Rooker. And Buxton and Rosario.* But I'd rather have Cave than another option that might be mentioned just below here.....I think Kiriloff is here by September, and then "for sure" in 2020....

 

*note, I am pretending Grossman does not exist in this universe.....at least in a Twins' uni.

Wade’s ceiling is Robbie Grossman IMO. And as of now, he’s not close to even being that good. I think you are overly optimistic as to how fast these guys are going to progress. Cave is producing at the MLB level now. Until someone proves they can produce better, he needs to stay at the MLB level IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wade’s ceiling is Robbie Grossman IMO. And as of now, he’s not close to even being that good. I think you are overly optimistic as to how fast these guys are going to progress. Cave is producing at the MLB level now. Until someone proves they can produce better, he needs to stay at the MLB level IMO.

 

Oh, I'd keep him up, but he's nothing special "2nd highest OPS in MN" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement....and lots of people are saying Kepler isn't good.....but he and Cave are hitting the same.

 

And, why can't Kiriloff come up and produce. LOTS of other players are doing so at a young age, why can't MN have one?

[mngopherguy]

 

I strongly disagree with this. Players playing out of position is going to affect their value in a negative way.

 

What I'm saying is I don't care if my catcher leads off, my center fielder bats clean up, and my first baseman bats ninth.  Their defensive position does not need to pigeon hole what kind of player they are offensively.  In other words, I don't care what Mauer's OPS is compared to other first baseman.  I'm interested in what his OPS is versus other lead off hitters.

[yarnivek1972]

Oh, I'd keep him up, but he's nothing special "2nd highest OPS in MN" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement....and lots of people are saying Kepler isn't good.....but he and Cave are hitting the same.

 

And, why can't Kiriloff come up and produce. LOTS of other players are doing so at a young age, why can't MN have one?

Ask the player development personnel.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Indeed.  A tad above 2.

 

Love the Yelich comparisons.  Career 96 OPS+ for Max (98 this season) vs career 127 for Yelich (158 this season.)

 

Maybe Max should wear his wolf suit and try to make mischief of one kind or another, because he is not cutting it...

 

Didn't think I'd ever see this reference at a baseball site. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Oh, I'd keep him up, but he's nothing special "2nd highest OPS in MN" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement....and lots of people are saying Kepler isn't good.....but he and Cave are hitting the same.

 

And, why can't Kiriloff come up and produce. LOTS of other players are doing so at a young age, why can't MN have one?

yeah, the real problem is that Kepler hasn't progressed as we'd like, and Buxton regressed. Hopefully, 2019 fixes all of that. I agree that Cave is a 4th OF in an ideal world... and I think he's a very good 4th OF, but I tend to agree with yarnivek that Cave is a starter till someone else beats him. 

[wabene]

How many games would you expect a guy drafted last year out of high school to have played above A ball?

I don't see what your point is here. His being not ready is expected and still not ready.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Keep.  His value is weak and there is still upside.  Those aren't the kind of guys I'm keen on dealing unless someone really likes him.

I agree. I don't think he'd command much in a trade at this point. Plus, I like him as a player, still thinking he'll be a late bloomer and consistently put up better offensive numbers in the years ahead.

[bird]

 

You don't improve a team by trading the young assets when their value is at its lowest

 

This. 

 

1. Trade from genuine surplus or don't trade at all. Surplus means you have someone, right this minute, who you can plug in and get equal or better performance. Deviate from that standard and you've created a hole and a shortage. Think Eduardo Escobar. Trading him created a hole.

 

2. Trade to accumulate asset value. Kepler may eventually be worth more, probably will be if you trust the judgement of guys like KLAW and Molitor. The goal should be to get an overpay on surplus players at their peak value. Making a practice of doing anything but this leads to mediocrity at best and deterioration is an even more likely outcome, now and in the future.

 

Kepler is not a surplus asset and he's worth more to the Twins than to the marketplace.

[bird]

 

I don't think that is enough, but the Twins have about 20 future all stars in the minors (that's what I hear on this site) so adding a couple of the amazing prospects that we got this year to that offer should be enough for JT.

 

You must be confusing web sites. You haven't heard anyone on TD say anything that you could remotely construe in this way. No talk here about 20 future all stars, and no one on TD has used the word "amazing" to describe a single one of the recently-acquired prospects. You're the first.

[ashbury]

 

Didn't think I'd ever see this reference at a baseball site. 

Unless Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams or Ricky Vaughn happened to be the topic.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't see what your point is here. His being not ready is expected and still not ready.

Expected by whom? You? That’s your problem.

[Tomj14]

 

You must be confusing web sites. You haven't heard anyone on TD say anything that you could remotely construe in this way. No talk here about 20 future all stars, and no one on TD has used the word "amazing" to describe a single one of the recently-acquired prospects. You're the first.

Maybe you are correct, but I was reading between the lines. Lots of people on here have commented about how we can't trade minor league prospects. Take this thread for example with Kepler we can't trade him because maybe someday he will be a 4 - 5 WAR guy or don't trade low? So basically Kepler is UN-touchable, unless somebody way over pays, maybe the Twins should be the ones that over pays a bit to get the guy they want?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

To trade Kepler, you'd need a team willing to pay for capability, not current performance... kinda like Pressly... except much harder to get, as Pressly's performance was already elite, his numbers just didn't show it yet.