Going forward, what moves do you think will happen?

[Doomtints]

 

So, until Buxton his, ignore every other issue? I have never understood this argument on this site.

 

He doesn't have to hit. He has to contribute as Buxton can contribute. He had the best WAR on the team last year based mostly on his defense.  

[Doomtints]

 

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you're also someone who lists the depth of other team's lineups as a reason the Twins arent contenders.

 

The Twins are contenders, so yes that's quite a limb you're on there. 

Straw man central right there. 

[alarp33]

 

Let's wait until some of the middle infielders get out of A ball before declaring them major leaguers. There's absolutely a need for Dozier now and 3 years from now.

 

There is "absolutely" a need for Dozier 3 years from now?  Strong disagree there.  And that isn't including anyone from A ball.  Sign me up for Gordon, Polanco, Escobar or numerous free agent options over Dozier's age 34 season at ~$12-15 million

[Mike Sixel]

He doesn't have to hit. He has to contribute as Buxton can contribute. He had the best WAR on the team last year based mostly on his defense.

You completely ignored the point if that post, and yours. I don't agree they should stand pat, while waiting for Dozier

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He doesn't have to hit. He has to contribute as Buxton can contribute. He had the best WAR on the team last year based mostly on his defense.  

Why not let Realmuto contribute too? Actually, considering that Buxton is physically unable to contribute right now, wouldn't that make Realmuto's contributions even more valuable?

[Otto von Ballpark]

My only concern about JT Realmuto is his initials being too similar to those of JR Murphy. Didn't Murphy switch from initials to "John Ryan" with us, or vice versa? Whatever he did, we should insist that Realmuto do the opposite, as a condition of any trade.

[Vanimal46]

There is "absolutely" a need for Dozier 3 years from now? Strong disagree there. And that isn't including anyone from A ball. Sign me up for Gordon, Polanco, Escobar or numerous free agent options over Dozier's age 34 season at ~$12-15 million

Any of the numerous free agent options are going to be Dozier's age in the early to mid 30s. You're also advocating Escobar's age 33 season at $8-10 million over Dozier at $12-15 million when Dozier has out performed him every single season?

[alarp33]

 

Any of the numerous free agent options are going to be Dozier's age in the early to mid 30s. You're also advocating Escobar's age 33 season at $8-10 million over Dozier at $12-15 million when Dozier has out performed him every single season?

 

Escobar's age 32 season... he's 2 years younger than Dozier.  And in my scenario he is option 3 anyways, behind Polanco / Gordon for 2B/SS. 

 

I wouldn't pay Dozier for what he has done, I would pay him for what I think he will do going forward.  I don't think he's going to be very valuable in his age 34 season. 

 

Is it possible Dozier is on the team in 3 years? Sure.. but to say he will absolutely be needed in 2021 is crazy. 

[jimbo92107]

 

The Marlins would trade Sano straight up for JT, then turn around a trade him for more than they could get for JT.

As much as the Twins fans are down on Sano, he is 24, has a career .831 OPS and while is OBP is low this year he has a career .342.

 

Imagine if you posted Sano's numbers without his name and said they Twins have a chance to trade for him, what we would offer. I am guessing more than we are willing to offer for JT. IMO

This is how Sano would wind up on the Yankees, via a one-week stint with the Marlins.

[Vanimal46]

Escobar's age 32 season... he's 2 years younger than Dozier. And in my scenario he is option 3 anyways, behind Polanco / Gordon for 2B/SS.

 

I wouldn't pay Dozier for what he has done, I would pay him for what I think he will do going forward. I don't think he's going to be very valuable in his age 34 season.

 

Is it possible Dozier is on the team in 3 years? Sure.. but to say he will absolutely be needed in 2021 is crazy.

We'll agree to disagree. The peaks and valleys can be extreme with Dozier, but his stats have been pretty consistent on a macro level over the last 3-4 years.

 

I can't envision him falling off a cliff production wise by his 34th birthday.

[Doomtints]

 

You completely ignored the point if that post, and yours. I don't agree they should stand pat, while waiting for Dozier

 

Hey, it's not my fault you changed the subject while I stayed on my original point!

[Doomtints]

 

Why not let Realmuto contribute too? Actually, considering that Buxton is physically unable to contribute right now, wouldn't that make Realmuto's contributions even more valuable?

 

Jason Castro

Primary Catcher

Signed until 2020

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Jason Castro

Primary Catcher

Signed until 2020

How does Castro help in 2018? I thought you said we were contenders right now.

 

Keep in mind, Castro is only signed for 2019, and he will be turning 32 and coming off a serious injury (plus a slow start in 2018). How much will he even be able to help then?

 

What should we do about the catcher position for 2020? Doesn't look like that help is coming from the farm. I know we just drafted a guy, but even best case scenario, he's not going to be ready to start at catcher on MLB opening day 2020.

 

Realmuto is a real answer to all 3 of those questions. If you think the price is too high (and it might be), fine, but Castro (and Buxton?) really have nothing to do with it.

[yarnivek1972]

Jason Castro

Primary Catcher

Signed until 2020

He’s only signed through 2019.

 

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

 

And neither his salary or skills stand in the way of him being a back up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He’s only signed through 2019.


http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

And neither his salary or skills stand in the way of him being a back up.

To be fair, some use the nomenclature "until 2020" to mean the same as "through 2019", although I find it confusing/misleading.

[nicksaviking]

 

We'll agree to disagree. The peaks and valleys can be extreme with Dozier, but his stats have been pretty consistent on a macro level over the last 3-4 years.

I can't envision him falling off a cliff production wise by his 34th birthday.

 

I don't know. There are a total of 12 qualified position players 33 or older with a WAR > 0.0 right now; only seven with a WAR > 1.0. 

 

Five of those seven are Nick Markakis, Jed Lowrie, Brett Gardner, Shin-Soo Choo and Matt Kemp. Four players who their teams long ago regretted signing.

 

30+-year-old vets have not been fairing as well in the post steroid era. Selfishly, I'm all for cycling them out.

[TheLeviathan]

We'll agree to disagree. The peaks and valleys can be extreme with Dozier, but his stats have been pretty consistent on a macro level over the last 3-4 years.

I can't envision him falling off a cliff production wise by his 34th birthday.

Dossier is not a player I'd bet on for aging gracefully with production.

 

I don't know how "needed" he will be, but as far as investments go he is a ridiculously dangerous one IMO.

[bighat]

 

We are going to use one third of a year's stats now? Come on.

 

Agree. The Sano hate is ridiculous. I think since Buxton's not around to throw stones at, fans turn to Sano as the punching bag. He's a monster in the middle of a good lineup and is an extremely valuable member of this team.

 

Put him on any team in the majors right now, and he bats 4th and plays every day.

[Mike Sixel]

There's isn't any "hate" for Sano, at least not here. The thought experiment/question is whether the Twins are better off in the short and/or long term with Sano or Realmuto assuming Miami would be willing to make a one for one trade. I would advocate for Realmuto because he is more consistent with the bat, plays a premium position pretty well, and plays a position of need for the organization. I agree that Sano has a potentially higher upside. I am just not very sanguine that Sano will reach that upside given his performance to date so I would advocate for trying to make this trade now while other teams value his upside rather than taking the chance that he doesn't become what we all hope he could become, but only if we could get a real B+ to A type player like Realmuto. I understand others may disagree because they think Sano is was more likely to reach his upside (or for another reason) but I don't think there can be any disagreement that were the trade to be made today, the Twins would be getting be player performing better over the last year and a half while giving up the player who has at least the possibility of performing better in the future.

 

I'm really curious as to what others think about that on a baseball basis. Saying that suggesting trading Sano is somehow "hating" or that "Miami would never make that trade"or that "he'll just wind up on the Yankees" isn't really responsive to the question I posed. The question is what do you think of making that deal - Sano for Realmuto straight up - and why?

This is rational. Many Sano posts are not this good. I'd rather keep Sano. I hope I am right

[Otto von Ballpark]

There's isn't any "hate" for Sano, at least not here. The thought experiment/question is whether the Twins are better off in the short and/or long term with Sano or Realmuto assuming Miami would be willing to make a one for one trade. I would advocate for Realmuto because he is more consistent with the bat, plays a premium position pretty well, and plays a position of need for the organization. I agree that Sano has a potentially higher upside. I am just not very sanguine that Sano will reach that upside given his performance to date so I would advocate for trying to make this trade now while other teams value his upside rather than taking the chance that he doesn't become what we all hope he could become, but only if we could get a real B+ to A type player like Realmuto. I understand others may disagree because they think Sano is was more likely to reach his upside (or for another reason) but I don't think there can be any disagreement that were the trade to be made today, the Twins would be getting be player performing better over the last year and a half while giving up the player who has at least the possibility of performing better in the future.

 

I'm really curious as to what others think about that on a baseball basis. Saying that suggesting trading Sano is somehow "hating" or that "Miami would never make that trade"or that "he'll just wind up on the Yankees" isn't really responsive to the question I posed. The question is what do you think of making that deal - Sano for Realmuto straight up - and why?

Even if one prefers Realmuto over Sano -- subtracting Sano makes the present team worse, and thus neutralizes much of the gain of acquiring Realmuto in the first place.

[Vanimal46]

Dossier is not a player I'd bet on for aging gracefully with production.

 

I don't know how "needed" he will be, but as far as investments go he is a ridiculously dangerous one IMO.

His demise has been predicted for years on this site. I guess we'll be right one day if we keep repeating it.

 

This team can afford an 'overpaid' Dozier for the next 3-4 years... Unless they're entering the Harper/Machado/Kershaw sweepstakes. But how realistic is that?

[TheLeviathan]

His demise has been predicted for years on this site. I guess we'll be right one day if we keep repeating it.

This team can afford an 'overpaid' Dozier for the next 3-4 years... Unless they're entering the Harper/Machado/Kershaw sweepstakes. But how realistic is that?

His baseball effectiveness will end, the gamble is on how likely a mid-to-late 30s middle infielder can keep up his production.

 

I would say that’s always a bad gamble. Dozier’s streaky trends only add to that for me.

[Vanimal46]

His baseball effectiveness will end, the gamble is on how likely a mid-to-late 30s middle infielder can keep up his production.

 

I would say that’s always a bad gamble. Dozier’s streaky trends only add to that for me.

Cano, Pedroia, and Utley held up through their mid 30s. Depends if you think Dozier is on their level. I think he has and then some over the last 5 years.

[TheLeviathan]

Cano, Pedroia, and Utley held up through their mid 30s. Depends if you think Dozier is on their level. I think he has and then some over the last 5 years.

Utley saw a noticeable dip around 32/33 and Cano showed similar signs before a sudden surge last year. (Which is probably not coincidental to his steroid bust).

 

32/33 is roughly the aging curve for infielders. Could Dozier bust the curve? Sure. Still a bad gamble IMO.

[alarp33]

 

Cano, Pedroia, and Utley held up through their mid 30s. Depends if you think Dozier is on their level. I think he has and then some over the last 5 years.

 

Pedroia is in his age 34 season currently and has played in 3 games, I'm not sure how he qualifies as "held up through mid 30's".  His age 33 season was his worst in WAR and OPS+ of his career. 

 

Chase Utley's peak was far greater than Dozier's.  His WAR was pretty much cut in half by the time he hit 32/33. 

 

 

 

 

[Teflon]

1. Find more "pitch to contact" pitchers. With even less demand for them these days due to the greater emphasis on strikeouts, they should be poking out of cracks everywhere like crabgrass.

 

2. Install a left fielder with limited range. If possible, replace him with one with even less range. Or even just a picture of a left fielder mowed into the outfield grass.

 

3. Bid high for a prospect from Asian ball and guarantee him a starting position out of spring training. Don't be afraid to DFA him if things don't work out. It's just money.

 

4. As soon as any of your middling starting pitchers post an anomalous good season, assume these will be the new norm. Sign them to extensions as quickly as possible. 

 

5. Stock the minors with numerous indistinguishable shaven-headed outfielders and friendly Australians.  

 

Respectfully,

T.R. & B.S. 

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Cano, Pedroia, and Utley held up through their mid 30s. Depends if you think Dozier is on their level. I think he has and then some over the last 5 years.

We know Cano was using PEDs. Were the others? Is Dozier? Are PEDS again altering aging curves in baseball? I think we'd want the FO to at least look into those issues.

[Mr. Brooks]

Cano, Pedroia, and Utley held up through their mid 30s. Depends if you think Dozier is on their level. I think he has and then some over the last 5 years.

Cano Ringo Starr'd it and Got By With a Little Help From His Friend's though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Any of the numerous free agent options are going to be Dozier's age in the early to mid 30s. You're also advocating Escobar's age 33 season at $8-10 million over Dozier at $12-15 million when Dozier has out performed him every single season?

Dozier has outhit Escobar by homeruns and OPS and has been absolutely amazing to watch.

 

Escobar is under 30, Dozier just turned 31.

 

Escobar has a higher slugging percentage and iso last year and this year.

 

Escobar is a better fielder and more defensively flexible in more defensively challenging positions.

 

There are a plethora of prospects on the verge of ready to play big league SS and 2B. 3rd? Sano and Escobar are about it, and Sano hasn’t been healthy.

 

Who do I think will be more valuable to the Twins over the next 3-4 years (especially years 3&4)? Escobar, and it’s not close.

[Vanimal46]

Dozier has outhit Escobar by homeruns and OPS and has been absolutely amazing to watch.

 

Escobar is under 30, Dozier just turned 31.

 

Escobar has a higher slugging percentage and iso last year and this year.

 

Escobar is a better fielder and more defensively flexible in more defensively challenging positions.

 

There are a plethora of prospects on the verge of ready to play big league SS and 2B. 3rd? Sano and Escobar are about it, and Sano hasn’t been healthy.

 

Who do I think will be more valuable to the Twins over the next 3-4 years (especially years 3&4)? Escobar, and it’s not close.

You may want to check those slugging percentage numbers again. Unless you're comparing them to Escobar's past years and not Dozier like I'm thinking.

 

The Escobar Kool-Aid is strong. We'll see if he can keep it up. I'm more confused by some thinking Dozier is old goods.