Interesting article about Buxton

[Jham]

Speed starts tailing off at whay age? By the time he learns to hit, his defense will already have (has already) dropped off.

 

This is why I hate "windows" and rebuilds that involve only youth movements. What are the odds that any organization can put 10 prospects plus together over a couple years and hit on all of them? Then who do you keep? Too much has to go right. Too easy to get pot committed to an average hand.

[yarnivek1972]

I think it is time for Ssno and Buxton to either prove they can play at the MLB level or prove they can’t.

 

IMO, too many here are still thinking of contending in 2018. If Buxton and Sano don’t produce, the Twins WON’T contend. It really is that simple. The offense truly is built around those two. The Twins already know Buxton and Sano can hit AAA pitching. They need to find out if they can hit MLB pitching. Because if they can’t, Falvine needs to decide what to do about that THIS offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is time for Ssno and Buxton to either prove they can play at the MLB level or prove they can’t.

IMO, too many here are still thinking of contending in 2018. If Buxton and Sano don’t produce, the Twins WON’T contend. It really is that simple. The offense truly is built around those two. The Twins already know Buxton and Sano can hit AAA pitching. They need to find out if they can hit MLB pitching. Because if they can’t, Falvine needs to decide what to do about that THIS offseason.

Agree. Mostly

[ashbury]

Agree. Mostly

Go on....

[ewen21]

Honestly, how much of a leash? They get all year so Sano can K 259 times and Buxton can hit .175??

 

Giving them an unlimited leash to fail says the accountability doesn't apply to these two players.

[yarnivek1972]

Honestly, how much of a leash? They get all year so Sano can K 259 times and Buxton can hit .175??

 

Giving them an unlimited leash to fail says the accountability doesn't apply to these two players.

The Twins have too much of their immediate future riding on those two to not have a long leash. Like I said, if they don’t look better by the end of this season, Falvine has some tough choices. Sending them to AAA won’t help them get better IMO and certainly won’t help evaluate them against MLB competition.

 

If they both still are terrible after having 1500 carrer AB, I’m done. They can be released for all I care. If that happens, it will be obvious to me that they aren’t going to get better wearing a Twins uniform. If they then blossom somewhere else, so be it. It will simply be a further indictment of the Twins player development and coaching staffs. Many of whom have already been dismissed.

[ewen21]

i think it sends a terrible message to not demote these two if they can't turn it around real soon. To not only Sano and Buxton, but to all young players in the system

[yarnivek1972]

I think releasing them at the end of the season (sans improvement) sends a clear enough message.

 

Indeed, I would say shuttling them back and forth between AAA would send the message that they don’t trust their MLB staff to help players. It’s not like there is some uber prospect in AAA that Buxton or Sano are standing in the way of promoting.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no interest in Sano going down. None. Buxton? No idea.

[twinsbaby]

Yeah, that's what I said last year. I am not a fan of Buxton, I still think he is overrated player. He can't make hard contact, his approach is terrible. His minor scouting report was fake. He is a suspect. We need to trade him or DFA him right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just noticed the 2018 stat line for a common Buxton "early career struggles" comp -- Jackie Bradley Jr is hitting .184/.280/.301 this season, for a 59 wRC+.

 

Maybe some guys are just going to inconsistent?

[Otto von Ballpark]

By the way, Buxton is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow (Tuesday June 19) for Rochester.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-send-byron-buxton-to-class-aaa-rochester-to-get-healthy-and-then-some/485754881/

[Kelly Vance]

 

He has nearly 1000 MLB at bats. How are reactions knee jerk at this point?

Knee jerk reactions are by definition statements given without true deliberation and discernment. 1000 ABs is not even two full major league seasons. And given how fast he went through the minors, this is small sample size when projecting whether a guy will have a good major league career.

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Speed starts tailing off at whay age? By the time he learns to hit, his defense will already have (has already) dropped off.

This is why I hate "windows" and rebuilds that involve only youth movements. What are the odds that any organization can put 10 prospects plus together over a couple years and hit on all of them? Then who do you keep? Too much has to go right. Too easy to get pot committed to an average hand.

It is different for different athletes, depending on conditioning, diet and injury avoidance. Darrell Green, Washington Redskin cornerback played 20 years in the NFL without losing a step. But for most of us, speed starts leaving after our 34th birthday, give or take.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I think it is time for Ssno and Buxton to either prove they can play at the MLB level or prove they can’t.

IMO, too many here are still thinking of contending in 2018. If Buxton and Sano don’t produce, the Twins WON’T contend. It really is that simple. The offense truly is built around those two. The Twins already know Buxton and Sano can hit AAA pitching. They need to find out if they can hit MLB pitching. Because if they can’t, Falvine needs to decide what to do about that THIS offseason.

Right now the offense is built around Eddie and Eddie. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Honestly, how much of a leash? They get all year so Sano can K 259 times and Buxton can hit .175??

Giving them an unlimited leash to fail says the accountability doesn't apply to these two players.

No it doesn't.  It means that you are more patient with those who have truly special talent.

They are accountable, same as everyone else. But some players develop later than others. 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

i think it sends a terrible message to not demote these two if they can't turn it around real soon. To not only Sano and Buxton, but to all young players in the system

 There are different messages sent by different management actions. The  message that we believe in you is not exactly sent by a demotion. In some cases, a demotion takes pressure off and lets them have ABs where they are working on things more than what might be indicated in a major league game.  In some cases, a demotion is a positive developmental move. In others, it can hurt a player's confidence. But in ALL cases, time will tell.  I believe that yo need to be extra patient with young players. Too many fans rush to judgment. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Yeah, that's what I said last year. I am not a fan of Buxton, I still think he is overrated player. He can't make hard contact, his approach is terrible. His minor scouting report was fake. He is a suspect. We need to trade him or DFA him right now.

Surely, you are joking.

I'm not joking, and don't call me Shirley.  

[USAFChief]

 

It is different for different athletes, depending on conditioning, diet and injury avoidance. Darrell Green, Washington Redskin cornerback played 20 years in the NFL without losing a step. But for most of us, speed starts leaving after our 34th birthday, give or take.

Running speed typically peaks in a man's early 20's.

 

https://travelingtrackster.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/track-field-peak-athletic-age/

[Vanimal46]

Running speed typically peaks in a man's early 20's.

 

https://travelingtrackster.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/track-field-peak-athletic-age/

The exception being Bartolo Colon... He's still at peak speed!

[70charger]

 

I have no interest in Sano going down. None. Buxton? No idea.

 

Interesting comment with hindsight. Perceptions can change over very short windows.

[Twodogs]

I had the same initial thought. But a couple of candidates came to mind afterward.

 

Sandy Koufax was pretty ordinary until he suddenly became SANDY! KOUFAX! The WAR statistic (whether b-r.com or fangraphs) values Buxton's defense pretty highly, and through their age 23 seasons their accumulated WAR totals are pretty similar. Buxton's off to a bad age-24 start, but the season's not over.

 

Ozzie Smith didn't come up to the majors until 23, and was always in the "if he could just hit" category. At age 27 he finally became consistent enough at the plate year after year to let his glove bring him to the Hall.

 

He's become a longshot for the Hall, but I wouldn't say it would be unprecedented for Byron to make it, as yet.

Also probably depends on how long he plays too? I mean if he has a great run for about 10 years and is done at age 35 then no, however, if he has a great run and he can continue that run till he's 39 or 40 like Edgar Martinez and some of those guys that played a long time then he has a shot.

 

But he has to go on a great run first.

[Mike Sixel]

Interesting comment with hindsight. Perceptions can change over very short windows.

more data, but yes, apparently I was wrong about Sano.

[70charger]

more data, but yes, apparently I was wrong about Sano.

I wasn’t really trying to call you out specifically, and I probably would have agreed with both points at their respective times. It’s just funny how quickly things can change.

[Mike Sixel]

I wasn’t really trying to call you out specifically, and I probably would have agreed with both points at their respective times. It’s just funny how quickly things can change.

No issues. I am genuinely surprised at this outcome, or step, I guess.

[ewen21]

 

I wasn’t really trying to call you out specifically, and I probably would have agreed with both points at their respective times. It’s just funny how quickly things can change.

OK.  How about the people who were calling for Mauer to get a three year extension or those who thought he would make a run at 3,000 hits?  Can I call them out on their perspective?  Or is that not cool?

[OldTimeTwinkie]

I believe the scouting reports on Buxton coming into the draft questioned his hitting potential. We now see why some had reservations about him. Can hit minor league pitching but not major league pitching. Those pitchers are there for a reason, we certainly have seen our share of pitchers who were successful in the minors who didn't make it. Buxtons defense is clouding our view of his hitting ability. What if Grossman showed at the plate what Buxton has with the Twins. Very few guys can play at this level if they can't hit. They have to be exceptional on defense which Buxton is.

[jkcarew]

Let's get to consistently useful before we worry about the hall of fame.  And let's not use Ozzie Smith as the comp.  Shortstops are shortstops...no position (other than catcher) is close with regard to the visibility and opportunities to impact games.  If we want to use a 'defensive wizard' comp for Buxton with regard to a HoF discussion, Paul Blair would be more appropriate.  Blair showed up in the MVP races a few times, won multiple gold-gloves and was generally viewed as the best defensive center fielder in the game for several years.  He had a career OPS+ of 96.  Oh...and he won multiple World Series.  Never sniffed the hall.

 

Buxton sits at 81 career OPS.  Of course, he could still end up being a better player than Blair.  And if he get to the 95+ range OPS-wise consistently, he will be better...as Buxton's a better base-runner and perhaps has a razors edge in terms of his defense.

 

But he's got to start hitting.  For Buxton to even have any real value, he needs to at least be OPS'ing over 600.  Jordon Schafer is at 615 for his career.  Danny Santana 670.  Bobby Wilson accomplished 600 or better at least 3 season in his career.  He can have WAR  of 2 or so OPS'ing in the 500's, but it would be artificial due to inflated defensive value.  Meanwhile, in the 17 months that Buxton has registered statistics in his career, he's gotten to 600 OPS in less than half of those months.  A LONG way to go.

[ewen21]

I also think last year will be his best defensive year.  He had 24 defensive runs saved.  He was presented with an inordinate amount of opportunites and I feel that kind of this makes the run saving ability he displayed last year "unsustainable"

 

That said, he hits four times a game.  We cannot afford auto outs in our lineup and that is what he is now.  This is hardly a scathing indictment, but rather a reasonable expectation for him.  He has to hit at least ,250 and hit for SOME power.  He showed he can hit 20 home runs last year.  Or was it a mirage?  

[Pardon My Dinger]

I would have traded him three years ago. On record. Could have turned the whole damn organization around. Good for me. Just sayin.