Interesting article about Buxton

[Battle ur tail off]

Buxton is the best outfielder in the game and the best outfielder the Twins have ever had. He helps this team so much on defense, it is unreal. That said, he can't hit. Or at least, he hasn't yet. He's had some good 2nd halfs of seasons, but remember September numbers against call-ups and teams that are out of it, don't count for much. 

 

At this point, I am of the belief that the guy will never be better than an average hitter. I just don't think he will be. He has a terrible approach at the plate, guesses WAY to much at pitches and when he gets the chance, rarely does anything with pitcher's mistakes. Right now, in his 1000 at bats or so that he has, I bet he ranks right near the very bottom of the MLB barrel.

 

I hope he figures it out. I do for sure. He has all the talent in the world. I just don't have a ton of faith that he will actually do so to the point of being that great hitter everyone is expecting him to be. One other thing though, a Byron Buxton that hits .240/.330/.400 would be more than adequate and with his defense still make him an extremely valuable part of this team. To get to even that point though, he has a long way to go.

 

[ewen21]

 

I had the same initial thought. But a couple of candidates came to mind afterward.

 

Sandy Koufax was pretty ordinary until he suddenly became SANDY! KOUFAX! The WAR statistic (whether b-r.com or fangraphs) values Buxton's defense pretty highly, and through their age 23 seasons their accumulated WAR totals are pretty similar. Buxton's off to a bad age-24 start, but the season's not over.

 

Ozzie Smith didn't come up to the majors until 23, and was always in the "if he could just hit" category. At age 27 he finally became consistent enough at the plate year after year to let his glove bring him to the Hall.

 

He's become a longshot for the Hall, but I wouldn't say it would be unprecedented for Byron to make it, as yet.

Two names out of the many thousands that didn't.

 

In the case of Smith, LONGEVITY was a big part of his entry into the HOF.  If he played 12 years rather than 19 I sincerely doubt he'd have made it.  

 

 

[Platoon]

While it's not easy to watch his AB's sometimes, I have no doubt he will do exactly what he did in MiLB every year. Start slow, and take off. He is the only true game changer the team has. In fact he is likely the most explosive player in MLB. And he will hit well enough for that ability to display itself.

[ashbury]

Two names out of the many thousands that didn't.

 

In the case of Smith, LONGEVITY was a big part of his entry into the HOF.  If he played 12 years rather than 19 I sincerely doubt he'd have made it.  

I answered a question somebody asked. There aren't many thousands in the HoF; you're addressing some different question.

[ewen21]

 

Another article on Buxton telling us all what we want to hear. He's got the look, the personality, and makes the flashy plays...he's got 'Star Power' in a league that's desperate for big name athletes. But these stories are getting old and are starting to look more like propaganda and less like feature articles. The emperor isn't wearing any clothes, folks.

 

It's almost June, and Byron has a total of 13 hits, 4 RBI, and he's batting .173 while hitting 9th for the 21-24 Minnesota Twins. And we're used to these numbers, this is what we've come to expect from Buxton. If he continues to play like this, he'll have a career as a 4th outfielder & defensive replacement.

.

Amen.  THis is now his fourth season, he is zeroing in on 1,000 at bats and he has a .681 OPS.  Isn't it about time for people to speak freely about his substandard bat without having to worry about people clapping back on them?  It is nice that Hunter, Roswon and his peers are hopeful.  They are only going to accentuate the positive and all we ever hear about is his speed and his quest to make diving catches.  How about a more well-rounded game?  How about being a little smarter and more attentive when it comes to running into walls?

 

I watched some videos of Hunter bashing into walls.  Hunter has/had a much bigger upper body than Buxton.  He also seemed to have much better awareness, whereas Buxton seems blind to the wall and he wears this as a badge on honor.  It could be his ticket to a short career if he doesn't learn how to make catches without knocking himself unconscious.  Part of the job is staying on the field and I wonder if he will be able to do that, let alone hit like an average/to slightly above average major league outfielder.  

 

One thing about defense vs. offense.  No way does defense approach offense in terms of it's impact in the game.  Would you rather have the best hitter in the game or the best defensive player in the game?  Give me Babe Ruth over Ozzie Smith 100 times out of a 100, thank you very much.,

 

According records compiled by baseballalmanac.com the average number of putouts a CF makes a game on average is 2.5.  Not sure how many catches Buxton makes a year that no other CF can make?  Can we maybe assume ten?  In then you would need to look at them to see if they actually saved runs.  I think people imagine that each one of those catches are like a 3 run homer.  Too much has been made about his defense to the point where it starts to go overboard.  The fact is, there are very small zones on the field where Buxton can make catch no one else can and balls don't get hit there all that often.  Entire weeks pass without him making a catch only he can make  or only the top 5 CFs can make.  During that time he can have as many as 35 plate appearances.  I have heard friends say "he can hit .100 and still be worth it" and "just play him everyday no matter how bad he hits"

Do standards not exist for him?  I am sorry, but that is not good for a baseball team.  He has to do his fair share with the bat.

 

Defense can make an impact for sure, but to believe defense is going to make up for a guy with ridiculously terrible OPS is poppycock.  I am tired of hearing it, and quite frankly, these kinds of articles are getting old.

[ewen21]

 

I answered a question somebody asked. There aren't many thousands in the HoF; you're addressing some different question.

 

John, I was not talking about HOFers..  Did you honestly think I believe there are that many players in HOF?  I have been there many times. I live a couple of hours away from there.  I didn;t think I needed to explain that "many thousands" referred to mediocre hitters that didn't get a whiff of the HOF or even an all star team.

[ashbury]

John, I was not talking about HOFers..  Did you honestly think I believe there are that many players in HOF?  I have been there many times. I live a couple of hours away from there.  I didn;t think I needed to explain that "many thousands" referred to mediocre hitters that didn't get a whiff of the HOF or even an all star team.

You were replying to my response to Mike Sixel's question. Read Mike's question, and my response in that context, again.

[jokin]

 

. Can't the coaches figure out how to help Byron accomplish this? (or is he just stubborn or sadly, just that bad of a hitter?)

 

One thing for sure about Buxton, he is anything but stubborn. The kid is humble to a fault. This is not an attitude problem.

[Rosterman]

Young players are a work in progress. At what time do you see enough and cut loose (think Aaron Hicks) or move forwards (see Bene Revere and Carlos Gomez) or just move on (see Denard Span).

 

Centerfield has been the vacuum hole for the Twins. So many guys who have had moments, but nothing consistent, nothing that would make you pay superstar millions. You could even say the Twins passed on THAT opportunity with ol' Torii Hunter, too.

 

And what do they still have in the minors, another quality centerfielder, at least two seasons away, but he could be advanced.

 

And then there is Sano.

 

The big questions for the Twins...who to extend and for how much.

[jokin]

 

er. Buxton isn’t a completely lost cause - yet - but it’s hard to envision him ever being even an average MLB hitter

 

because he has zero strike zone recogniti

 

While it's not easy to watch his AB's sometimes, I have no doubt he will do exactly what he did in MiLB every year. Start slow, and take off. He is the only true game changer the team has. In fact he is likely the most explosive player in MLB. And he will hit well enough for that ability to display itself.

 

Yep. The Twins made a mistake early on in his minor league apprenticeship by NOT hiring Rod Carew to take Buxton under his wing on a full-time basis. Instead, Buxton is learning his craft the hard way.

 

As you and I have said so often previously, if he had never shown MVP potential batsmanship in the past in the minors- plus flashes of that greatness in the majors- he could be more easily written off, as many on this thread are willing to do. As frustrating as Buxton's horrible stretches at the plate and reckless disregard for his bodily health are, I think maintaining a little more reticence about Buxton's alleged inevitable demise to fringe OFer is still justifiable.

 

I think in the case of the Twins and multiple baseball experts, there is still strong consensus that the eventual Buxton Blossoming is inevitable.

 

[Platoon]

I certainly doubt that this could be lingering, but it did him no good when our MOY stuck him in the 3 hole out of ST. That was so wrong, he should have to give that plaque back.

[yarnivek1972]

There’s also plenty of doubt.

 

From the “national publications” thread:

 

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:59 For everything that's ever been written about Buxton, his year-to-year strikeout rates have spanned from 29% to 36%

10:00 Which is to say, they've spanned from high to very high

Maybe -- just maybe -- Byron Buxton isn't going to be a good major-league hitter

[jorgenswest]

Who is ready to trade him for a major league catcher? Straight up for Realmuto? If the Marlins say no, how about Ramos?

 

I don’t consider either. I am waiting until he gets close to 2000 PAs and appreciating the defense.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He’s not changing the game on the bases with a .200 obp. And he won’t have the opportunity to make plays in the OF when he is benched to inject offense a couple times a week and pinch hit for a couple more times.

 

Buxton right now has about 100 more PA than Hicks did as a Twin. Their OPS+ are nearly identical, 83 for Buxton, 81 for Hicks. Biggest difference offensively is K rate. Hicks was under 20%. Buxton is over 30%. If you don’t put the bat on the ball, you are going to have a hard time being a productive hitter.

 

The Hicks trade may go down as one of the most impactful in Twins history. They got nothing from Murphy. And now he’s doing well elsewhere. Hicks has blossomed into a solid, borderline all star centerfielder. Buxton isn’t a completely lost cause - yet - but it’s hard to envision him ever being even an average MLB hitter because he has zero strike zone recognition.

Believe it or not, but what I hear you saying is to have a little more patience with Buck. I can agree with that.

[yarnivek1972]

What I’m saying is that the Twins gave up on Hicks despite him NOT looking completely overmatched at the plate. Buxton is completely overmatched. If he were to cut his K rate by 1/3 it would STILL be higher than MLB average. We’re talking about a guy who is a below MLB average HR hitter.

 

Sure, Buxton will probably get better. Most guys do with experience. But, he is SO BAD that it would take an enormous amount of improvement to make him an AVERAGE hitter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

One thing about defense vs. offense. No way does defense approach offense in terms of it's impact in the game. Would you rather have the best hitter in the game or the best defensive player in the game? Give me Babe Ruth over Ozzie Smith 100 times out of a 100, thank you very much.

I agree with every other clause in your post, but quibble with this. Why do you hold Buxton accountable for his bat, then make it an either/or statement? What makes the guy so tantalizing is the potential for both.

 

He can hit AND field. He needs his hit tool to become more consistent. Agreed, staying on the field is a critical component to this equation.

 

I for one feel that this whole team is much better with him roaming CF than without, regardless of his hitting. True there are too many holes in the lineup, and if he can get back on track from the end of ‘17, it’s one fewer.

 

I agree with you that he needs to hit. He’s shown the ability, he’s coming up on 1000 ABs, it’s time.

 

I think he can do it, but even if he can’t, he’s still extremely valuable.

[ewen21]

 

I agree with every other clause in your post, but quibble with this. Why do you hold Buxton accountable for his bat, then make it an either/or statement? What makes the guy so tantalizing is the potential for both.

He can hit AND field. He needs his hit tool to become more consistent. Agreed, staying on the field is a critical component to this equation.

I for one feel that this whole team is much better with him roaming CF than without, regardless of his hitting. True there are too many holes in the lineup, and if he can get back on track from the end of ‘17, it’s one fewer.

I agree with you that he needs to hit. He’s shown the ability, he’s coming up on 1000 ABs, it’s time.

I think he can do it, but even if he can’t, he’s still extremely valuable.

Sorry, no.  

 

The numbers just do not support all the talk about how his marvelous defense saves this team boatloads of runs.  He made about as big a contribution as one can make in the outfield last year with his glove.  However, he might go (and has gone) weeks without making an upper-echelon catch.  Last year for Buxton was a rather uncommon season for an outfielder to have defensively posting an amazing 24 defensive runs saved.  We can brag on that and say he was the best defender in all of baseball, but the fact is his defensive wizardry amounted to 24 runs saved according to that metric.   Mike Trout was probably the best offensive player with 181 runs created (according to  wRC+).  Allow that to sink in for a moment and then please acknowledge the difference.    Still not convinced offense is a much bigger part of the game than defense at the major league level?  The spread between Buxton's 24 defensive runs saved and the worst qualifying CF (Denard Span at -27) is 51 runs.  The spread between Trout's 181 offensive runs created and the worst qualifier (Rougned Odor at 61) is 120 runs.

 

As far as Buxton's bat goes, we had reason to feel better going into this season after how he closed out last year.  However, I cannot say with any confidence that he CAN hit.  What does that even mean?  He hit last year for about 200 at bats.  Does that sample offer more proof than the 800 other at bats he has had as a major leaguer?  That counts only as much as any other consecutive 200 at bats someone can punch up.  Miguel Dilone hit .341 over a full season in 1980, but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat of the rest of his career.  Do we say "he can hit" just on the strength of that?

 

I am going to try to tone it down with the Buxton talk for a while.  He is a very frustrating player to watch right now.  I don't want to hear about the value his glove brings today.  It's been so blown up for so long that he is starting to think he is Superman in the outfield.  I don't see no S on his chest.  Sorry.  He literally had no chance with that ball last night.  He was almost like a dog chasing a car on that one. It was cringe-worthy, in my opinion.  I am almost ready to say send him to Rochester for a while and make him DH exclusively for the first 10 games.  

[ewen21]

Wanna know how many defensive runs saved Buxton has this year?  ONE.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

 

Just from the eye test, I didn't feel he was making as big an impact as he was last year.  I go check it...lo and behold the numbers back it up.  I am jogging through my memory trying to remember his truly great catches this year and the truth is that don't come up a whole lot.  There is a lot of sensationalism when it comes to his defense.  He can cover lots of ground, but he is becoming his own worst enemy.  

[jorgenswest]

If his current injury puts him on DL, I would send him on the rehab and get him back that the majors following the rehab. The Twins should have sent him on rehab after the last injury.

 

Otherwise I would keep playing him every day this year and next. The Twins will not contend for a pennant without Buxton approaching his ceiling.

[USAFChief]

“You can shake a dozen glove men out of a tree, but the bat separates the men from the boys.”

 

-Dale Long

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sorry, no.

 

The numbers just do not support all the talk about how his marvelous defense saves this team boatloads of runs. He made about as big a contribution as one can make in the outfield last year with his glove. However, he might go (and has gone) weeks without making an upper-echelon catch. Last year for Buxton was a rather uncommon season for an outfielder to have defensively posting an amazing 24 defensive runs saved. We can brag on that and say he was the best defender in all of baseball, but the fact is his defensive wizardry amounted to 24 runs saved according to that metric. Mike Trout was probably the best offensive player with 181 runs created (according to wRC+). Allow that to sink in for a moment and then please acknowledge the difference. Still not convinced offense is a much bigger part of the game than defense at the major league level? The spread between Buxton's 24 defensive runs saved and the worst qualifying CF (Denard Span at -27) is 51 runs. The spread between Trout's 181 offensive runs created and the worst qualifier (Rougned Odor at 61) is 120 runs.

 

As far as Buxton's bat goes, we had reason to feel better going into this season after how he closed out last year. However, I cannot say with any confidence that he CAN hit. What does that even mean? He hit last year for about 200 at bats. Does that sample offer more proof than the 800 other at bats he has had as a major leaguer? That counts only as much as any other consecutive 200 at bats someone can punch up. Miguel Dilone hit .341 over a full season in 1980, but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat of the rest of his career. Do we say "he can hit" just on the strength of that?

 

I am going to try to tone it down with the Buxton talk for a while. He is a very frustrating player to watch right now. I don't want to hear about the value his glove brings today. It's been so blown up for so long that he is starting to think he is Superman in the outfield. I don't see no S on his chest. Sorry. He literally had no chance with that ball last night. He was almost like a dog chasing a car on that one. It was cringe-worthy, in my opinion. I am almost ready to say send him to Rochester for a while and make him DH exclusively for the first 10 games.

you are arguing a point I did not make. Individual stats are a part of the equation, the other part is the improvement in runs saved as a team with Buck in the outfield compared to the alternatives (Grossman, Granite, Cave, LaMarre). DRS does not account for that. I suppose if you could look at Team ERA for games with Buxton and Team ERA without Buxton. I don’t have the time to try to figure it out.

 

Good point on semantics, I said “can hit” and should have said “could hit”. It’s all potential at this point.

[jorgenswest]

“You can shake a dozen glove men out of a tree, but the bat separates the men from the boys.”

-Dale Long

Love it.

 

I doubt many are old enough to remember that Dale Long spent 11 years in the minors showing a good bat but couldn’t field a position. He got his shot at age 29.

[ewen21]

 

you are arguing a point I did not make. Individual stats are a part of the equation, the other part is the improvement in runs saved as a team with Buck in the outfield compared to the alternatives (Grossman, Granite, Cave, LaMarre). DRS does not account for that. I suppose if you could look at Team ERA for games with Buxton and Team ERA without Buxton. I don’t have the time to try to figure it out.

Good point on semantics, I said “can hit” and should have said “could hit”. It’s all potential at this point.

If I did that I apologize....  I have read your posts and you seem like a good guy. 

 

The point I wanted to make is that Buxton's defense isn't countering his putrid offense by a longshot.  The sum of his game right now isn't even an average player, even with the defense.  He has a negative WAR which pretty much squares up with the eye test, at least in my opinion.

 

For some reason I was concerned about Buxton coming into the season.  He is still a bundle of nerves.  He started off exactly how I hoped he wouldn't.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The point I wanted to make is that Buxton's defense isn't countering his putrid offense by a longshot.

 

You and others have made this point over and over and over, in multiple threads. I come to this thread thinking someone has something new to say.

 

What do you suggest be done?

"Send him to AAA" --- then what?

[USAFChief]

Love it.

I doubt many are old enough to remember that Dale Long spent 11 years in the minors showing a good bat but couldn’t field a position. He got his shot at age 29.

Is that an age joke, sonny?

[ewen21]

 

You and others have made this point over and over and over, in multiple threads. I come to this thread thinking someone has something new to say.

What do you suggest be done?
"Send him to AAA" --- then what?

Maybe so many people suggest it because it is well overdue?

 

I say send him to Rochester with the assignment that he DH for a week straight.  NO glove necessary, just concentrate on hitting.  Then have Hunter drop by and have a heart to heart with about changes/adjustments he needs to make in the field in order to survive.

 

The idea that he should be allowed an unlimited amount of at bats when he still has options left and is just 24 makes no sense to me.  If it means calling up Cave then so be it.  For the purposes of accountability AND putting a better lineup out there Buxton's play has painted us into a corner.  How much worse does he need to be?

 

 

[ewen21]

One last thing before I call it a day here.

 

I have never seen the Twins give a player so much of a support system as Buxton has been given.  They have pretty much allowed him to go out there and prove himself and has been given undless support from all corners of the organization.  How much longer can this continue?  Is he so special that accountability doesn't apply?

 

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe so many people suggest it because it is well overdue?

 

I say send him to Rochester with the assignment that he DH for a week straight.  NO glove necessary, just concentrate on hitting.  Then have Hunter drop by and have a heart to heart with about changes/adjustments he needs to make in the field in order to survive.

 

The idea that he should be allowed an unlimited amount of at bats when he still has options left and is just 24 makes no sense to me.  If it means calling up Cave then so be it.  For the purposes of accountability AND putting a better lineup out there Buxton's play has painted us into a corner.  How much worse does he need to be?

I'd have Buxton keep tinkering with his stride and tracking the ball. Sometimes that means knowing you are going to be taking more pitches and let some good ones go by. Not sure what he swing rate is at recently. But I would have that all happen here in the majors. He looks really stiff at the plate. No stride or toe tap when he was swinging last night. I think long term he goes back to the leg kick even though the toe tap worked for him last season. Lots of good hitters play their entire careers continually fiddling with their swing.

 

I would prefer Cave in the outfield to Grossman at this point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You and others have made this point over and over and over, in multiple threads. I come to this thread thinking someone has something new to say.

 

What do you suggest be done?

"Send him to AAA" --- then what?

I think AAA would be good for Buxton. I'm beginning to think it would be good for Sano as well.

 

Both of these guys are on a 'scholarship' of sorts right now. Neither are contributing to their talent level and right now both are liabilities to the team. If spending an option can right the ship so to speak, then I think we should spend the option.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Why no talk of not trying bunting more? Speed is his best asset. Create some tools to get on base. The only stat that should matter with him is On base percentage. Then he impacts the game offensively. He should lead the league in hit batsmen, walks and bunts!