Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not really. The Twins have played multiple SS prospects at multiple positions on the same team before and it makes it easier for the inevitable 'he's blocked but X position is needed' situation that arises.

I really like having guys like Palacios in the org and it is easy to see why the Rays targeted him. He is the A ball flyer that we often talk about targeting in similar trades. But overall I am quite happy with the trade. Odorizzi has his flaws but he should be solid and the Twins rotation has trainwreck written all over it. Hopefully someone like Mejia or Gonsalves nails down a spot this year to further solidify the rotation.

I see your point and I don't think it's a big issue. I guess you could summarize my point more succinctly this way:

 

With three better shortstop prospects in the system, two "chasing" Palacios, it makes sense to move him and clear the way for guys you more regard more highly.

 

On that note, how weird is it to talk about shortstop as a position of strength? I've been a Twins fan a little over 30 years and it hasn't happened during that time.

[kab21]

 

I see your point and I don't think it's a big issue. I guess you could summarize my point more succinctly this way:

 

With three better shortstop prospects in the system, two "chasing" Palacios, it makes sense to move him and clear the way for guys you more regard more highly.

 

On that note, how weird is it to talk about shortstop as a position of strength? I've been a Twins fan a little over 30 years and it hasn't happened during that time.

It is crazy. 4 of the top 25 prospects and 3 serviceable or better SS's on the MLB roster along with a near elite 2B. Hopefully the Twins can benefit from this in the next couple of years.

I would love to see a Sonny Gray level (big trade from last year's deadline) trade involving this surplus.

[Monkeypaws]

Even if Odorizzi puts up the exact same numbers as last season, it still cements him in as the Twins 3rd best starter. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even if Odorizzi puts up the exact same numbers as last season, it still cements him in as the Twins 3rd best starter. 

By some measures, but far from all.  Odorizzi's 5.02 RA9 last year (ERA including unearned runs) would have only ranked 4th among our 2017 starters (behind Ervin, Berrios, and Mejia). And not very far ahead of Colon (5.18) or Gibson (5.30).

 

And if you look at peripherals via FIP, Odorizzi would fall behind Gibson and even Colon too, into a 6th place tie with Hughes at 5.43, ahead of only Santiago among our regular 2017 starters.

[Mike Sixel]

Even if Odorizzi puts up the exact same numbers as last season, it still cements him in as the Twins 3rd best starter.

That's not exactly encouraging....

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's not exactly encouraging....

Considering the drop off after Santana and Berrios, it should be.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Considering the drop off after Santana and Berrios, it should be.

 

Why? An ERA and other stats that make it likley they'll lose more than they win, isn't exactly encouraging. (remember, the post was about him being as "good" as last year, not how he'd be better this year).

 

I mean, an ERA over 5 and not going long into games, and only pitching 140 or so innings doesn't exactly scream "I am good enough to help my team win". 

 

Is it better than an ERA over 6? Sure. But is that enough to win games? Is that how low the bar is now, bad, but not awful?

Edited February 21, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why? An ERA and other stats that make it likley they'll lose more than they win, isn't exactly encouraging. (remember, the post was about him being as "good" as last year, not how he'd be better this year).

 

I mean, an ERA over 5 and not going long into games, and only pitching 140 or so innings doesn't exactly scream "I am good enough to help my team win". 

 

Is it better than an ERA over 6? Sure. But is that enough to win games? Is that how low the bar is now, bad, but not awful?

Ah, I see, you're saying that his FIP will be the same. Got it.

 

I disagree on that front but under that definition, Odorizzi is not much of an upgrade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah, I see, you're saying that his FIP will be the same. Got it.

 

I disagree on that front but under that definition, Odorizzi is not much of an upgrade.

 

Right....under the definition I was responding to, yikes.

 

I think he'll be a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher. That's an improvement over their existing options, almost certainly. They need more, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right....under the definition I was responding to, yikes.

Except the original post made no clarification if ERA or FIP was being used to say "the same".

 

So let's say both are the same. That means Odorizzi will again post a low 4s ERA, making him much better than everyone except Berrios and Santana.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Except the original post made no clarification if ERA or FIP was being used to say "the same".

 

So let's say both are the same. That means Odorizzi will again post a low 4s ERA, making him much better than everyone except Berrios and Santana.

 

fair. Either way, I expect him to be a 4/5, which helps this rather mediocre collection, even if it doesn't really fix it.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

fair. Either way, I expect him to be a 4/5, which helps this rather mediocre collection, even if it doesn't really fix it.

I'm also expecting a four, will be very happy if he bounces back to being a decent three.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Why? An ERA and other stats that make it likley they'll lose more than they win, isn't exactly encouraging. (remember, the post was about him being as "good" as last year, not how he'd be better this year).

 

I mean, an ERA over 5 and not going long into games, and only pitching 140 or so innings doesn't exactly scream "I am good enough to help my team win". 

 

Is it better than an ERA over 6? Sure. But is that enough to win games? Is that how low the bar is now, bad, but not awful?

Not sure where the ERA over 5 is coming from.

 

Well, it was good enough for him to post a winning record on a below .500 team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, it was good enough for him to post a winning record on a below .500 team.

I hope he doesn't repeat that achievement in 2018!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure where the ERA over 5 is coming from.

 

Well, it was good enough for him to post a winning record on a below .500 team.

 

I got the ERA and predictive stats backward on that post! 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I hope he doesn't repeat that achievement in 2018!

 

well, the second part at least. I'm quite fine with him having a winning record in 2018.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 Perhaps I'm misreading some of this, but it sure seems like there's a lot of consternation about this move. I'm not a fan of them missing out on Darvish (mainly b/c I think they lowballed him badly given that the Cub's offer was a substantial low ball), but this was a great move. They guy was a pretty good pitcher last year. I know the peripherals have some flags, but that's why he came by cheaply. He's also a good bounce back candidate as he has solid years of play before that. Even if he replicates last season, he's a huge improvement in the rotation, and there's good reason to think that the odds are far more in favor of a 27 year old reverting back to old form after a bad season than say a 35 year old in the same situation. For the cost, this was worth it. 

 

I'll continue to be not happy about Darvish, but this was a great move by the FO.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not sure what the obsession is with his 2017 season, if anything it made for a great buy-low opportunity.

[amjgt]

I’ve been on vacation and am not fully caught up in the thread, but I have two quick points about Odorizzi’s BABIP....

 

1) his BABIP was lower than one would expect partially because so many of his batted balls left play. I suspect the entire league has a lower than normal BABIP

 

2) I wonder what his BABIP would have been if you normalize his very high HR/FB percentage and consider those new “non HR” as fly ball outs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I’ve been on vacation and am not fully caught up in the thread, but I have two quick points about Odorizzi’s BABIP....

1) his BABIP was lower than one would expect partially because so many of his batted balls left play. I suspect the entire league has a lower than normal BABIP

2) I wonder what his BABIP would have been if you normalize his very high HR/FB percentage and consider those new “non HR” as fly ball outs.

Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about Odorizzi's BABIP. Will it raise this season? Almost certainly.

 

But we're talking about a guy who fought injury issues most of the season and saw his home run rate spike... but his walk rate also spiked.

 

That tells me there's a good chance he lost his feel for the zone due to nagging injury, a guy who might be having trouble finishing his delivery and therefore leaving an extreme number of balls up in the zone. Even if the BABIP jumps back up, as it probably will, a healthy Odorizzi should be able to counter that with a normalized walk and home run rate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1) his BABIP was lower than one would expect partially because so many of his batted balls left play. I suspect the entire league has a lower than normal BABIP

Nope. League BABIP is virtually unchanged.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Edited February 22, 2018 by spycake

[gocgo]

 

Why? An ERA and other stats that make it likley they'll lose more than they win, isn't exactly encouraging. (remember, the post was about him being as "good" as last year, not how he'd be better this year).

 

I mean, an ERA over 5 and not going long into games, and only pitching 140 or so innings doesn't exactly scream "I am good enough to help my team win". 

 

Is it better than an ERA over 6? Sure. But is that enough to win games? Is that how low the bar is now, bad, but not awful?

ERA...I think it is the single most misleading stat in the majors.  It depends almost entirely on the quality of the defense behind the pitcher.  If that center fielder is a half step slower than the league average, the base hits fall in rather than being caught for outs.  If the short stop lacks range but has a sure glove, ERA will suffer.  If the 2nd baseman doesn't turn the double play quite quick enough, the pitcher is pitching to another batter rather than walking back to the dugout.  The pitcher can only control so much.  If the ball gets hit out of the park, it's on the pitcher.  If the batter K's, it's mostly pitcher, but some catcher too.  Walks are mostly on the pitcher.  Anything else relies on the guys behind him.

Edited February 22, 2018 by gocgo

[jimmer]

Odorizzi is going to be surprisingly good with us. We have bigger worries in our rotation than him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Odorizzi is going to be surprisingly good with us. We have bigger worries in our rotation than him.

Yeah... the Twins have a lot riding on Gibson stabilizing and Mejia taking a step forward.

 

Thankfully, in the case of Mejia, the step forward can be rather small and he's suddenly a decent pitcher. Just keeping him on the field for 25+ starts would be a big step in the right direction.

[Oxtung]

 

Yeah... the Twins have a lot riding on Gibson stabilizing and Mejia taking a step forward.

 

Thankfully, in the case of Mejia, the step forward can be rather small and he's suddenly a decent pitcher. Just keeping him on the field for 25+ starts would be a big step in the right direction.

Given the depth the Twins have currently at SP I'm less concerned about the number of starts a pitcher makes and more about the quality of the starts. Mejia making 15 starts with an ERA around 4 is better than 30 starts with an ERA closer to 5, IMO. The step down from Mejia is less than it would be in previous years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Given the depth the Twins have currently at SP I'm less concerned about the number of starts a pitcher makes and more about the quality of the starts. Mejia making 15 starts with an ERA around 4 is better than 30 starts with an ERA closer to 5, IMO. The step down from Mejia is less than it would be in previous years.

Yeah, I agree, my point is more that guys tend to perform better and more consistently when they're healthy.

 

Given that Mejia was pretty close to the line between "kinda bad and mediocre" last season, a healthier season could be what puts him into the 2-2.5 WAR range in 2018 and cements him as a rotation staple, albeit closer to the back than the front.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, I agree, my point is more that guys tend to perform better and more consistently when theyan're healthy.

 

Given that Mejia was pretty close to the line between "kinda bad and mediocre" last season, a healthier season could be what puts him into the 2-2.5 WAR range in 2018 and cements him as a rotation staple, albeit closer to the back than the front.

I want to like Mejia, but nothing he has done thus far has made me feel like he can be anything more than a 'cheap' option at #5 (until he becomes expensive)

That's not really a knock on him as guys like that sometimes have solid 6-10 year careers bouncing around and making decent money over a career, as much as it is: the Twins should always be looking to get a better SP option than him if they want to compete.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I want to like Mejia, but nothing he has done thus far has made me feel like he can be anything more than a 'cheap' option at #5 (until he becomes expensive)

That's not really a knock on him as guys like that sometimes have solid 6-10 year careers bouncing around and making decent money over a career, as much as it is: the Twins should always be looking to get a better SP option than him if they want to compete.

I'm not a huge believer in Mejia either but the guy approached a league average ERA and FIP in his rookie season while fighting a couple of minor injuries.

 

He has modest upside, enough to make me want to see him get another shot at a starting role. I don't think he settles any higher than a #4 or a kinda bad #3 but that's valuable on this team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not a huge believer in Mejia either but the guy approached a league average ERA and FIP in his rookie season while fighting a couple of minor injuries.

 

He has modest upside, enough to make me want to see him get another shot at a starting role. I don't think he settles any higher than a #4 or a kinda bad #3 but that's valuable on this team.

 

Not sure your first and second statements line up. If he's league average, he's already capable of being a 3.. at least that's how I look at it. He's got the right kind of K rate to stick in the majors. I have no grand hopes of him being an ace, but given how successful he was in his first season, I think it's fair to say he's got enough upside to be a legit starting option on most playoff teams. 

 

I too think he should get some chances to start. I don't think nerves will be an issue this year unless he takes a major step backwards this spring. I'd like to see him get 10 starts and re-evaluate from there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not sure your first and second statements line up. If he's league average, he's already capable of being a 3.. at least that's how I look at it. He's got the right kind of K rate to stick in the majors. I have no grand hopes of him being an ace, but given how successful he was in his first season, I think it's fair to say he's got enough upside to be a legit starting option on most playoff teams.

 

I too think he should get some chances to start. I don't think nerves will be an issue this year unless he takes a major step backwards this spring. I'd like to see him get 10 starts and re-evaluate from there.

It’s just differing pitcher definitions, I think. I tend to believe a #3 should be solidly above league average whereas a #4 is somewhere around average.