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Twins World Series Odds - What does Vegas know that we don't?

John Bonnes

By John Bonnes
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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John Bonnes MVP

John Bonnes

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

I guess I'm not that surpised with the overall number, but I am surprised with where the Twins are ranked. The Twins are 75:1 to win the World Series behind the Rays and .... the White Sox? Tied with the Royals?  The only AL teams with worse odds are the Tigers and Athletics.

 

Anyone know what the professional gamblers know that we don't?

 

 

2018 WS Odds.JPG

spinowner Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

spinowner

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Betting odds are not the same thing as the odds of winning the World Series. Betting odds are based strictly on the consequences of the house having to pay off a winning ticket. Odds change more because of which bets have been placed and are expected to be placed than because of changes occurring with a team. If a particular casino knows a whole bunch of Minnesotans will be visiting during a certain week they might change the Twins to 50:1 for that week.

spinowner Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

spinowner

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

Probably a case of nothing to see here ... odds for most teams got worse. Maybe no one is betting ... or maybe even too many people are betting!

Most likely no one is betting so they increase the payoff to try to entice people to play.

tarheeltwinsfan Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

tarheeltwinsfan

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I've never placed a bet through someone in Las Vegas. But I'll take the 75 to 1 odds against the Twins to win it all. I'm going to sign off now and see if I can figure out how to place a bet with a "reliable source".

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Until they bring in 2 starters and significant bullpen help, I don't see how anyone can say they are better than 50:1

They got crushed by the Yankees last season, and likely would have lost in 5 games against either the Indians or Astros as well (at best)

The Yankees and Stros are only getting stronger, and their are teams in the 'middle' that are improving quite a bit as well (Mariners, Angels etc)

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I don't disagree with some of the opinions above about the state of our pitching staff, but when you compare it to other teams, 75-1 seems a bit low.

 

No "local" bookmakers are even taking MLB futures bets at this point, but if I was in Vegas right now I'd throw down $100 at 75-1, and go to confession every day.

 

The Twins likely have a top 3 AL offense next year.... one hot pitching signee and one pitching minor league flash-in-the-pan and we're in the conversation.

 

75-1 is a really good number.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I don't disagree with some of the opinions above about the state of our pitching staff, but when you compare it to other teams, 75-1 seems a bit low.

 

No "local" bookmakers are even taking MLB futures bets at this point, but if I was in Vegas right now I'd throw down $100 at 75-1, and go to confession every day.

 

The Twins likely have a top 3 AL offense next year.... one hot pitching signee and one pitching minor league flash-in-the-pan and we're in the conversation.

 

75-1 is a really good number.

Likely to be top three? I'll take that bet, what odds? And how is it measured?

drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Likely to be top three? I'll take that bet, what odds? And how is it measured?

I won't bet, but the Twins were legitimately #4 by all reasonable measures, wRC+, wOBA, and runs.

 

I think they have a reasonable chance to pass the Indians too, but highly doubtful they touch Houston and especially New York. Not an outrageous statement.

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Likely to be top three? I'll take that bet, what odds? And how is it measured?

I stand by my statement.

 

Measured by the only thing that matters. Runs.

 

Analytics can predict future results, but actual results can only be measured by one thing.

Hosken Bombo Disco All-Star

Hosken Bombo Disco

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

My guess is the House is setting prices to take advantage of casual bettors placing token offseason bets. Probabilities should add up to about 100 + juice but in the Twins case I think 75:1 is a great price, especially if they add a good starter.

 

I see the new Pitch to Contact guys in Detroit aren't getting much love :)

dgwills Draft Eligible

dgwills

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

I would have to agree with Dave. The Twin's just don't have the pitching to advance in the playoffs right now. Even if it was 100-1 I would still not make the bet. Just too far away right now.

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Well, there is an easy resolution for those that think the odds are too low...

No there isn't.

 

The Supreme Court still needs to decide who can take my money.

Platoon Cedar Rapids Kernels

Platoon

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I don't know if the odds should place us ahead of or behind the white Sox, but I do know that with the current pitching staff that is sort of a moot point. Either the overall quality of the pitching staff improves, or this will be forever a decent team, with no legitimate chance to win the whole thing. I hope that doesn't happen as this roster has a lot of good things going for it.

amjgt FCL Twins

amjgt

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

While I agree that the lines are set based on how bettors will bet them, Vegas isn't worried about Ole and Lena wagering their $50 weekly church donation. They are worried about the sharps. Maybe Vegas thought the Twins should be 50-1 and set the line at 75-1 to encourage action, but they wouldn't have moved it from 30-1 "real" odds to 75-1 because then the sharps would be all over it.

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