Article: Twins With Options On The Trade Front

[drjim]

Trading away good veterans for relatively small value doesn't make the team better next year no matter how much you dislike the 5 WAR Dozier.

 

I have no problem trading either of them for a top trade package. Maybe a top 25 and a top 100 prospect for Dozier or 2 borderline top 100 prospects for Ervin but I doubt that anyone offers that for either of them.

That would be a cyanide pill to swallow after this past year.

[kab21]

 

That would be a cyanide pill to swallow after this past year.

Trading them for really good (pitching) prospects?

Show me the full offseason and it could be an easy sell. For example trade both of them and spend the money on Darvish, trade several prospects for Cole, sign Escobar to a small extension and bring in a very good relief arm (or two) and I think most would be on board.

[drjim]

Trading them for really good (pitching) prospects?

 

Show me the full offseason and it could be an easy sell. For example trade both of them and spend the money on Darvish, trade several prospects for Cole, sign Escobar to a small extension and bring in a very good relief arm (or two) and I think most would be on board.

Or do some of these things and keep them.

[Thrylos]

 

Trading away good veterans for relatively small value doesn't make the team better next year no matter how much you dislike the 5 WAR Dozier. 

I have no problem trading either of them for a top trade package. Maybe a top 25 and a top 100 prospect for Dozier or 2 borderline top 100 prospects for Ervin but I doubt that anyone offers that for either of them.

 

You will not trade them for prospects.  You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

 

[kab21]

 

Or do some of these things and keep them.

Both work. But if trading Santana brings back a prospect that is needed for Cole and saves half of the yearly salary of Darvish then I make that trade. If trading Dozier brings back a top 25 pitching prospect (plus more prospects) that is a year or less away then that is a good trade. Both of these specific examples address the elephant in the room (starting pitching). This would be a very aggressive offseason with non-traditional FO thinking.

But I don't think any team will come close to my asking price for them. 

[kab21]

 

You will not trade them for prospects.  You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

That kind of trade is incredibly rare. Pittsburgh hangs up the phone if you build a package (or even include) around either of them. They might trade Cole, Rivero or McCutchen but only to get younger and plunder another team's farm system. They won't be interested in Dozier or Santana for the same reason that you insist that the Twins should trade them. 

Whenever anyone proposes a trade they need to ask themselves if they would do this if they were a fan of the other team. People can include as many marginal prospects (Stewart, Jorge, etc...) or as many sort of valuable MLB'ers (an ode to Duensing) as they want but these types have very little value in major trades.

[Mr. Brooks]

You will not trade them for prospects. You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

If anyone is trading a young top of the rotation starter, it's because they are several years away from competing. Why would a team that is several years away from competing want to trade for players as old as Santana and Dozier?

[Thrylos]

 

That kind of trade is incredibly rare. Pittsburgh hangs up the phone if you build a package (or even include) around either of them.

 

Yes they do.  Because they are rebuilding and want to shed salary.  I bet that if you call the Mets, or the Dodgers, or the Dbacks, or the Angels (for example), they do not hang the phone.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

 

If anyone is trading a young top of the rotation starter, it's because they are several years away from competing. Why would a team that is several years away from competing want to trade for players as old as Santana and Dozier?

 

Not necessarily.  There are teams that have a whole bunch of young MLB ready pitchers who need a second baseman and also would like to have an experienced veteran.  Dbacks and the Mets are primes examples of 2 such teams.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not necessarily. There are teams that have a whole bunch of young MLB ready pitchers who need a second baseman and also would like to have an experienced veteran. Dbacks and the Mets are primes examples of 2 such teams.

But if they think they are a contender, they are trading prospects, not established top of the rotation starters.

Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

[goulik]

But if they think they are a contender, they are trading prospects, not established top of the rotation starters.

Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

But some of those prospects are MLB ready (as he said) and some can be used to trade for the other holes your filling when packaged with the prospects we already have . In the mean time Otani has been signed or Darvish or both without breaking the bank or handicapping future extensions. I see the plan and I like it but it would be hard to get all these birds to land in one nest.

[jorgenswest]

Seems like the smart move for the Pirates would be to trade those pieces individually as the White Sox.

 

McCutcheon is a better player than Eaton, but he only has one year left on a reasonable contract. Even with the one year of control, he will get a good return. I think they need to trade him this winter so he retains the value of the compensation pick. The return for Eaton was two prospects better than anyone prospect the Twins gave to offer. McCutcheon is really a comp to Dozier though. Would trading one for the other make sense for the Pirates? Possibly if they were a contender and had a top prospect blocked by McCutcheon.

 

Like Cole, Quintana and Sale both had two years of control last winter. Cole slots in between them in value. Quintana returned an MLB top 10 prospect and an MLB top 100 prospect and two others. Sale netted the number 2 prospect in baseball, a top 30 MLB prospect and two others. The Twins don’t have anyone to match those top prospects. They might have to offer the Pirates their choice of any three prospects in the organization plus one more.

 

The deal of Robertson and Kahnle netted them Blake Rutherford a top 50 prospect and two others. Robertson is more like McCutcheon and Rivero is more like Eaton in terms of control. Rivero should be able to return a top 50 prospect plus a few Cs.

 

The Pirates have an opportunity similar to the White Sox if they are wise about moving their assets. Trading them in one deal would not be wise. The Twins would have to go all in on Cole and gut their system given they won’t have the level of prospects other teams can offer.

 

Thrylos’ trade broken down might be the young players for Cole, McCutcheon for Dozier and Rivero for Santana. McCutcheon and a Dozier are of similar value. Santana and many years of control of a Rivero are of similar value. The Twins could come up with 4 young players to get Cole. The trade is fair. The Pirates won’t need to be fair. They should be patient until they are long term winners for all three players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I can see that - How about Slegers, Jorge, and if we still had him - Kohl with a position player thrown in?

 

You're basically sending 3 high floor low ceiling guys at Pittsburg for Cole. I'm guessing they want more ceiling.... call me crazy. I think most of us would do this if Pittsburg wanted some of that, but I'm guessing Pit says no.

 

I do think that we should be able to unload one or two of those guys as a key component in a trade to get a Cole or Archer, but I think there's going to be some higher ceiling guys (such as Gordon or Gonsalves) coming with.

[mikelink45]

 

You're basically sending 3 high floor low ceiling guys at Pittsburg for Cole. I'm guessing they want more ceiling.... call me crazy. I think most of us would do this if Pittsburg wanted some of that, but I'm guessing Pit says no.

 

I do think that we should be able to unload one or two of those guys as a key component in a trade to get a Cole or Archer, but I think there's going to be some higher ceiling guys (such as Gordon or Gonsalves) coming with.

I am fine with a Gordon or Polanco going with the package.  I was responding to the idea that they want some pitching back.  I know these trades are complex and I do not understand the multiple evaluations, but I think we have a mix of guys who could be interesting without destroying our own supply line. 

[Mr. Brooks]

But some of those prospects are MLB ready (as he said) and some can be used to trade for the other holes your filling when packaged with the prospects we already have . In the mean time Otani has been signed or Darvish or both without breaking the bank or handicapping future extensions. I see the plan and I like it but it would be hard to get all these birds to land in one nest.

Thrylos specifically said "not prospects". He also said front of the rotation starters. Nobody who is contending is trading guys like that.

[Thrylos]

 

Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

 

The Mets and the Diamondbacks do; albeit not all that established.  Being "established" should not be one of the Twins' requirements here...

Edited November 25, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mr. Brooks]

The Mets and the Diamondbacks do; albeit not all that established. Being "established" should not be one of the Twins' requirements here...

Neither of those teams have more than 5 front of the rotation starters, so they don't have a surplus.

And before you said not prospects. If they are not established, then they are either not front of the rotation starters, or they are prospects with front of the rotation potential.

Perhaps some examples would be helpful.

[Thrylos]

 

Neither of those teams have more than 5 front of the rotation starters, so they don't have a surplus.
And before you said not prospects. If they are not established, then they are either not front of the rotation starters, or they are prospects with front of the rotation potential.
Perhaps some examples would be helpful.

 

They don't need more than 5, if they are getting Santana back for one in the rotation, and they have enough pitchers to fill their rotation appropriately.  They need 3, one of which can go to the Twins.

Examples:  (The Twins target one of the top 3; other than Greinke for the Dbacks)

 

Mets:

Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Steven Matz
-----
Robert Gsellman
Matt Harvey
Zack Wheeler
Chris Flexen

 

Diamondbacks:

Greinke
Ray
Walker
---
Corbin
Godley
Banda
Miller
Shipley

 

And as you can see, under the line, in both of the teams, there is plenty of talent that is better than what the Twins have right now, and definitely enough for them to pick 2 to fill in a rotation, plus stash a bunch in AAA "just in case".  And they have more coming too.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

why would any of these teams want Santana if they have these arms we are targeting?

[Mr. Brooks]

They don't need more than 5, if they are getting Santana back for one in the rotation, and they have enough pitchers to fill their rotation appropriately. They need 3, one of which can go to the Twins.

Examples: (The Twins target one of the top 3; other than Greinke for the Dbacks)

 

Mets:

Jacob deGrom

Noah Syndergaard

Steven Matz

-----

Robert Gsellman

Matt Harvey

Zack Wheeler

Chris Flexen

 

Diamondbacks:

Greinke

Ray

Walker

---

Corbin

Godley

Banda

Miller

Shipley

 

And as you can see, under the line, in both of the teams, there is plenty of talent that is better than what the Twins have right now, and definitely enough for them to pick 2 to fill in a rotation, plus stash a bunch in AAA "just in case". And they have more coming too.

Not all of those are front of the rotation starters yet. The ones that are, aren't getting traded for Dozier and Santana. Competing teams would rather trade prospects, and you already said not prospects.

 

We should try to acquire front of the rotation starters, but they'll either have to be prospects from a competing team, or established pitchers from a rebuilding teams. Competing teams don't trade starters that are already contributing, it just doesn't happen.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Competing teams don't trade starters that are already contributing, it just doesn't happen.

 

Do you remember who the Red Sox traded to the A's for Cespedes?

Or who Detroit traded to the Red Sox for the same Cespedes?

 

It does happen.

[Thrylos]

 

why would any of these teams want Santana if they have these arms we are targeting?

 

Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

 

And Santana does not come alone.  Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

 

The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

(and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

[Mr. Brooks]

Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

 

And Santana does not come alone. Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen.

 

The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

(and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

Couldn't they just sign a 'veteran presence', then trade prospects for a second baseman? Trading someone who is already a front of the rotation starter doesn't make a team better, it makes them worse.

[jorgenswest]

Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

 

And Santana does not come alone.  Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

 

The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

(and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

Preventing opponent runs scored is the major task of the new front office. Their first step was to address catching and emphasize outfield defense. I think both helped to prevent runs.

 

The next task has to be to address pitching. Your trade would go a long way to addressing that need. If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?

[Mr. Brooks]

Do you remember who the Red Sox traded to the A's for Cespedes?

Or who Detroit traded to the Red Sox for the same Cespedes?

 

It does happen.

The Red Sox were a last place team when they traded Lester, a rental, to the A's at the deadline.

 

I'm asking about competing teams trading established front of the rotation starters. Not rentals from last place teams.

[Thrylos]

 

The Red Sox were a last place team when they traded Lester, a rental, to the A's at the deadline.

I'm asking about competing teams trading established front of the rotation starters. Not rentals from last place teams.

 

How about Porcello for Cespedes?

or even Fullmer (and MLB-ready top 100 SP) for Cespedes?

How about Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi?

Or Mike Leake for Adam Duvall?

It happens.

[Mr. Brooks]

How about Porcello for Cespedes?

or even Fullmer (and MLB-ready top 100 SP) for Cespedes?

How about Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi?

Or Mike Leake for Adam Duvall?

It happens.

Porcello wasn't a front of the rotation starter.

The rest were trades for prospects, not 30+ year old players.

 

If you want to trade Santana and/or Dozier for someone with a career ERA in the mid 4's like Porcello when he was traded, sure you could make that happen, but that's not what you said. You said front of the rotation starters.

[Thrylos]

 

 

If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?

 

Depends what else happens, like signing Otani. I think that at this point Santana will regress and will be behind Gibson at the Twins rotation depth and that Dozier and him can bring a good pitcher back at less cost than signing Darvish long term (which is not something I like them to do because of age.)  Add the fact that Santana will likely have his 2019 option vest, and it becomes even bigger of a problem, blocking someone like (let say) May or Gonsalves or Romero.

 

If the Twins start spring Training with Dozier and Santana it will mean that the FO blew an opportunity.  Both of them are considerably older than the Twins' core players and the Twins should move towards the direction of building a core the will be at its prime for a long time.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Thrylos

[ahart10]

If I’m not mistaken, the Mets have money issues. Paying down Santana and Dozier contracts could go a long way to a better return. And my favorite throw ins Grossy and Gibby.

[ChrisKnutson]

This offseason, nothings happened, yet there's already been a lot of talk of what the Twins need to do in order build on their surprise wildcard birth last season. Obviously this team is young, and ahead of schedule as well, but this doesn't mean its time to trade the system (top prospects or even some of our core) and go all in on Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, or even Shohei Otani (don't think he'd want to come to MN anyways). 

 

Although I do like the thought of overhauling on pitching, starters and relievers (Tommy Hunter and Brandon Kintzler), I don't think we need to because we got a lot of the system's top pitching prospects coming off injuries (Chargois, Jay, Burdi) and others looking like they'll be in MN sometime in 2018 (Gonsalves, Romero, Pudge Jr).  All Falvine needs to do is make two moves in order to make this a very good team. Which is sign  SP Yu Darvish and trade for RP Brad Hand.

 

These are two pitchers that sometimes go under the radar as being "elite" because they choked in the WS (albeit small sample size) or we're apart of a dying franchise (Padres) that lowered their value by selling way too high in July (Preller). Regardless, I think these two would be all the Twins need in order reach the WC game again, maybe even become division winners again.

 

We have enough bats to win a game, all we need to do is hold the lead.