Trade market for starting pitchers

[Tomj14]

 

Twins can't afford to pay full price for an ace or ace potential with long term control, nor do they want to take the risk that, after paying full price, the pitcher gets injured. Instead, what they can do is get another #3- type starter to solidify the rotation, then get an ace rental at the trade deadline.

They can also reasonably expect for more from some or all of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and May.

They can also reasonably expect the bullpen to be better with young pitchers contributing more this year and the team hopefully signing a higher tier of free agent.

My expectations for Romero, Gonsalves and May is very low for next year. I would expect they get a few starts with an ERA around 5, much higher for the next year

[RaoulDuke]

Its going to cost a lot to get more pitching either way.   Sign/ trade for a 2 or 3 type, Cobb seems the best bet to me, and go all in on the bullpen.  Get at least 2 big arms for the pen.

 

CL FA

SU FA

SU Hildenberger

MR May

MR Buesenitz

MR Rookie

LR Rookie

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only 2 playoff teams didn't win 90.

 

that's correct, but before the season you don't know which those will be.....other than maybe the Cubs, Dodgers, and Houston predictions....

 

and you really think the Twins will go from one of the worst SP staffs and bullpens to a "likely" to win 90+ game team?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins can't afford to pay full price for an ace or ace potential with long term control, nor do they want to take the risk that, after paying full price, the pitcher gets injured. Instead, what they can do is get another #3- type starter to solidify the rotation, then get an ace rental at the trade deadline.

They can also reasonably expect for more from some or all of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and May.

They can also reasonably expect the bullpen to be better with young pitchers contributing more this year and the team hopefully signing a higher tier of free agent.

 

so, everything is going to go right on the pitching front? That seems pretty unlikely.

 

Who is that #3 FA pitcher for whom they will outbid all the other teams  that are looking for SP ?

[Tomj14]

 

Its going to cost a lot to get more pitching either way.   Sign/ trade for a 2 or 3 type, Cobb seems the best bet to me, and go all in on the bullpen.  Get at least 2 big arms for the pen.

 

CL FA

SU FA

SU Hildenberger

MR May

MR Buesenitz

MR Rookie

LR Rookie

I think Rogers deserves a spot.

[yarnivek1972]

Anyone think that Mejia might be a guy that is dangled?

 

Seems to me he would be exactly the kind of guy other teams want. Young, some positive MLB exposure, controllable, upside. I am not sure what I would want or what other teams might offer for a Mejia led package. Not even sure what comes back is going to be enough to make trading other pieces worth it. What is the consensus on Mejia’s upside? Is he realistically a future #2? He was almost dead on league average this year, which kinda by definition makes him a 3, 4 at worst.

 

Just throwing it out there.

[RaoulDuke]

 

Anyone think that Mejia might be a guy that is dangled?

Seems to me he would be exactly the kind of guy other teams want. Young, some positive MLB exposure, controllable, upside. I am not sure what I would want or what other teams might offer for a Mejia led package. Not even sure what comes back is going to be enough to make trading other pieces worth it. What is the consensus on Mejia’s upside? Is he realistically a future #2? He was almost dead on league average this year, which kinda by definition makes him a 3, 4 at worst.

Just throwing it out there.

 

I mean we traded Nunez for him, and he didn't set the world on fire this year rarely getting out of the 5th.  His value has increased but not by a ton.  He has profiled more as a 4/ fringe 3.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anyone think that Mejia might be a guy that is dangled?

Seems to me he would be exactly the kind of guy other teams want. Young, some positive MLB exposure, controllable, upside. I am not sure what I would want or what other teams might offer for a Mejia led package. Not even sure what comes back is going to be enough to make trading other pieces worth it. What is the consensus on Mejia’s upside? Is he realistically a future #2? He was almost dead on league average this year, which kinda by definition makes him a 3, 4 at worst.

Just throwing it out there.

 

why am I trading a 3, 4 at worst pitcher to find pitching? Help me out here, I really don't get this.

[Vanimal46]

 

Does Jason Vargas do anything for anyone?

 

Meh, not really. Pretty skeptical about a career year at 34 years old. 

[smoot27]

that's correct, but before the season you don't know which those will be.....other than maybe the Cubs, Dodgers, and Houston predictions....

 

and you really think the Twins will go from one of the worst SP staffs and bullpens to a "likely" to win 90+ game team?

First of all, the Twins' team ERA ranked 19/30, far from "one of the worst".

 

Secondly, despite mediocre pitching, the Twins won 85 games. You seem to ignore my statement that 90 wins would likely require at least one additional quality starting pitcher and a good reliever.

 

The Twins had the 7th best offense in terms of runs scored. It's reasonable to predict that with Buxton improving his plate discipline and a healthy Sano, they should remain in the top 10. A modest improvement to the pitching staff makes 90 wins a reasonable prediction.

 

You seem to be confusing "reasonable" with "probable". I would expect that if the Twins added a pair like Cobb and Tony Watson, many forecasters will estimate right around 90 wins.

[prouster]

 

Anyone think that Mejia might be a guy that is dangled?

Seems to me he would be exactly the kind of guy other teams want. Young, some positive MLB exposure, controllable, upside. I am not sure what I would want or what other teams might offer for a Mejia led package. Not even sure what comes back is going to be enough to make trading other pieces worth it. What is the consensus on Mejia’s upside? Is he realistically a future #2? He was almost dead on league average this year, which kinda by definition makes him a 3, 4 at worst.

Just throwing it out there.

 

I would be hesitant to move him, but I can see the reasoning. I guess it comes down to what the FO thinks he'll turn into. If they think he has a good chance to hit his upside, I assume they'll keep him. If not, I assume they'll at least listen when other GMs call.

[nicksaviking]

***Moderator Note***

 

Please try to tone down any lingering doom and gloom and let's completely cut out any off topic tangents.

[markos]

 

First of all, the Twins' team ERA ranked 19/30, far from "one of the worst".

Secondly, despite mediocre pitching, the Twins won 85 games. You seem to ignore my statement that 90 wins would likely require at least one additional quality starting pitcher and a good reliever.

The Twins had the 7th best offense in terms of runs scored. It's reasonable to predict that with Buxton improving his plate discipline and a healthy Sano, they should remain in the top 10. A modest improvement to the pitching staff makes 90 wins a reasonable prediction.

You seem to be confusing "reasonable" with "probable". I would expect that if the Twins added a pair like Cobb and Tony Watson, many forecasters will estimate right around 90 wins.

I mostly agree with this, but I have a slightly different take on what it means to be "realistic". If one gives the Twins a 85-win projection for next year (which might be a little steep right now but certainly not crazy, especially with the moves you suggest), a probabilistic win distribution suggests that they would have something like a 25% chance of winning 90+ games. Another way, I think a 90 win season falls within one standard deviation of their pre-season win projections, at which point I'd consider 90-wins a "realistic" outcome. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/projecting-uncertainty-a-roadmap-to-the-projected-standings/

[Twodogs]

 

Here's the list of SP free agents (not including potential opt-outs like Tanaka, Cueto, etc.) 

Who would you spend some real money on?

Why not go after someone like Darvish? Lynn would be ok, you'd need a little better bullpen then, but why not go after those guys?  I know the payroll would be excessive for about a year, but Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, etc... will be coming off of the books in the next year or two also.  So might as well go after a guy like that.  I feel that if you trade away guys like Gordon, et al for a pitcher then you no longer have any depth.  And you know any pitcher the Twins trade for will at some point in time spend some time on the DL, they all do, so you are willing to trade away all of the depth for someone that we know will most likely spend time on the DL?  Just go and buy and arm or two and develop guys like Gonsalves, dont trade him, because they will need him in the next year or two for sure.  Just go buy someone, go after the big guys, if you cant get them get Lynn or Cobb, someone who can make sure the Twins don't need a Colon, Tepish, etc... to pitch for big chunks of the season.  Bullpen also needs a good guy also.  But if those are addressed then they would have a legit shot at going deep into the playoffs.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why not go after someone like Darvish? .

Pohlads own this team. We're not going to win a bidding war for a top pitcher.

[prouster]

so, there are maybe 3-4 good SPs, and you think demand will be so low that they are affordable?

My other replies to this were deleted. At any rate, this isn't at all what I said. My post begins with an opinion (that I like Cobb out of the available starting pitchers), then it moves into supposition hedged by a qualifier (that he'll likely be affordable). If he's not affordable, they probably shouldn't sign him.

 

Edited for friendliness.

[Vanimal46]

 

Why not go after someone like Darvish? Lynn would be ok, you'd need a little better bullpen then, but why not go after those guys?  I know the payroll would be excessive for about a year, but Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, etc... will be coming off of the books in the next year or two also.  So might as well go after a guy like that.  I feel that if you trade away guys like Gordon, et al for a pitcher then you no longer have any depth.  And you know any pitcher the Twins trade for will at some point in time spend some time on the DL, they all do, so you are willing to trade away all of the depth for someone that we know will most likely spend time on the DL?  Just go and buy and arm or two and develop guys like Gonsalves, dont trade him, because they will need him in the next year or two for sure.  Just go buy someone, go after the big guys, if you cant get them get Lynn or Cobb, someone who can make sure the Twins don't need a Colon, Tepish, etc... to pitch for big chunks of the season.  Bullpen also needs a good guy also.  But if those are addressed then they would have a legit shot at going deep into the playoffs.

 

The Twins could go after Darvish, but I doubt they would win. Obviously I don't know his motivating factors selecting a team, but Minnesota isn't a big market nor do they have a large Asian community. If they win a bidding war for the top FA pitcher, that would be a first. I'd be thrilled to see it, but not counting on it. 

[smoot27]

I mostly agree with this, but I have a slightly different take on what it means to be "realistic". If one gives the Twins a 85-win projection for next year (which might be a little steep right now but certainly not crazy, especially with the moves you suggest), a probabilistic win distribution suggests that they would have something like a 25% chance of winning 90+ games. Another way, I think a 90 win season falls within one standard deviation of their pre-season win projections, at which point I'd consider 90-wins a "realistic" outcome. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/projecting-uncertainty-a-roadmap-to-the-projected-standings/

The previous poster quoted me twice as having said "likely" 90+ wins when in fact I said should have a realistic chance. Likely and realistic are two very different things. I would agree that 25% is realistic.

[Twodogs]

 

Pohlads own this team. We're not going to win a bidding war for a top pitcher.

No I hear ya, but how much money did they spend on Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes?  Not to mention they spent a bunch on a 1B man from overseas that hasn't even gotten out of the minors yet??  So imagine if they spent their money on one or two more sure bets rather than spending a lot of money on 5 or 6 lower bets???

 

But yeah I hear you that typically the Twins don't spend big, but they have a new stadium to fill, that hasn't been really full the last couple of years and now they have a mostly young team that they have control of for around the next 4 years or so;  So just in my opinion this is the year that they should go after it.  I don't have the check book, but right now, I think, is the time to go for it.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

My other replies to this were deleted, which seems weird to me, given what I was responding to (as well as some patterns that are emerging on this thread). At any rate, this isn't at all what I said. My post begins with an opinion (that I like Cobb out of the available starting pitchers), then it moves into supposition hedged by a qualifier (that he'll likely be affordable). If he's not affordable, they probably shouldn't sign him. 

 

But I don't have tens of thousands of posts, so I guess my attempts to explain my position are somehow worth less? More controversial?

 

got it, I somehow missed that part about not affordable, even after re-reading it! my bad.

 

I'd agree on that, but I don't know what affordable is anymore. Any decent pitcher is going to cost 10-12MM per year, minimum, if he's healthy and not OLD.

[Twodogs]

 

The Twins could go after Darvish, but I doubt they would win. Obviously I don't know his motivating factors selecting a team, but Minnesota isn't a big market nor do they have a large Asian community. If they win a bidding war for the top FA pitcher, that would be a first. I'd be thrilled to see it, but not counting on it. 

I agree that they probably won't outbid the Yankees or whoever, but they should throw their hat in the ring to show that they are really looking and not just pretending.  

[smoot27]

got it, I somehow missed that part about not affordable, even after re-reading it! my bad.

 

I'd agree on that, but I don't know what affordable is anymore. Any decent pitcher is going to cost 10-12MM per year, minimum, if he's healthy and not OLD.

Perkins can be bought out for 700k saving the team over $6 million. Santiago's 8 million is also coming off the payroll.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes bought out and Mauer only has 1 year left on his contract. The Twins have money to play with to get a deal done for a quality pitcher. They won't overpay but I expect a reasonable deal for a solid #2-3 type starter and some BP help.

 

Perhaps they could restructure Mauer with a 2 year deal for $30 million rather than a 1 year $23 million, and get 2 years from him while spreading the cost.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perkins can be bought out for 700k saving the team over $6 million. Santiago's 8 million is also coming off the payroll.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes bought out and Mauer only has 1 year left on his contract. The Twins have money to play with to get a deal done for a quality pitcher. They won't overpay but I expect a reasonable deal for a solid #2-3 type starter and some BP help.

 

check out the other thread for the list of FA starting pitchers.....

[prouster]

got it, I somehow missed that part about not affordable, even after re-reading it! my bad.

 

I'd agree on that, but I don't know what affordable is anymore. Any decent pitcher is going to cost 10-12MM per year, minimum, if he's healthy and not OLD.

See, this is more fun. My assumption is that a guy like Cobb, or maybe Lynn, will fetch somewhere between $15-18m AAV for 3-4 years. It's not my money, so I'm on board. The fact that it isn't my money makes me believe they should sign Darvish, Otani, and Arietta. More realistically, $15-18 sounds steep, but I think it's approximately what competent pitching will cost.

[gunnarthor]

 

No I hear ya, but how much money did they spend on Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes?  Not to mention they spent a bunch on a 1B man from overseas that hasn't even gotten out of the minors yet??  So imagine if they spent their money on one or two more sure bets rather than spending a lot of money on 5 or 6 lower bets???

 

But yeah I hear you that typically the Twins don't spend big, but they have a new stadium to fill, that hasn't been really full the last couple of years and now they have a mostly young team that they have control of for around the next 4 years or so;  So just in my opinion this is the year that they should go after it.  I don't have the check book, but right now, I think, is the time to go for it.  

But they didn't really spend much on those guys. They gave them #3 starter money, which was more or less in line with what other pitchers of note got. Park got 3/yr. That's nothing.

 

And I'm not sure you can say "sure bets" when it comes to pitching. Look at Hughes, his first contract was great (3/24). He put up a 6 WAR season (or whatever) at 28. Eats a ton of innings. The narrative on him is that he's the type of flyball pitcher who is better away from the small AL East parks. Sets a league record for k/bb ratio. So the team gives him a 5 year deal that would keep him with us through age 32 and pay him like a #3 pitcher. Basically, he just had to be healthy for that to work.

 

Santana's deal has worked out great for us and Nolasco was pretty much exactly what he was before and after he was with us. So I don't think you can say we should just get a sure thing and go from there. A few years ago, people were saying the Twins should shell out for Anibal Sanchez, who had never topped 200ip. He flopped.

[Vanimal46]

 

No I hear ya, but how much money did they spend on Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes?  Not to mention they spent a bunch on a 1B man from overseas that hasn't even gotten out of the minors yet??  So imagine if they spent their money on one or two more sure bets rather than spending a lot of money on 5 or 6 lower bets???

 

But yeah I hear you that typically the Twins don't spend big, but they have a new stadium to fill, that hasn't been really full the last couple of years and now they have a mostly young team that they have control of for around the next 4 years or so;  So just in my opinion this is the year that they should go after it.  I don't have the check book, but right now, I think, is the time to go for it.  

 

I agree that this winter is the time to go for it and make a splash. They need to do something to continue this momentum and get fans back in the stadium. Just the sheer fact that they made the playoffs will help boost attendance numbers a bit. Another big splash in FA would draw more interest in the team. 

[kab21]

Gerrit Cole seems the most realistic out of that group for Gordon/a pitcher/2 decent prospects. I would make that deal and make a real push for the playoffs right now. I would also sign Lance Lynn (and target higher). This totally reshapes the rotation and it not only looks good but contender worthy.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect but he isn't critically needed to take over for Dozier IF he leaves. Starting pitching is CRITICALLY NEEDED and the Twins might have to part with Gordon to get it.

[FlauerPauer]

 

Gerrit Cole seems the most realistic out of that group for Gordon/a pitcher/2 decent prospects. I would make that deal and make a real push for the playoffs right now. I would also sign Lance Lynn (and target higher). This totally reshapes the rotation and it not only looks good but contender worthy.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect but he isn't critically needed to take over for Dozier IF he leaves. Starting pitching is CRITICALLY NEEDED and the Twins might have to part with Gordon to get it.

 

Cole, Lynn, Santana, Berrios, Mejia/Gibson seems legit.

 

I think the only untouchables in the system right now would be Lewis and Gonsalves.  Gotta give up something to get something.  Cole/Nicasio for Gordon/Romero/Baddoo/Wade

 

My dream target is Carlos Martinez.  I'd go Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero/whomever for him.

[old nurse]

 

Otani is interesting due to his age. He's essentially capped at what he can get. I've got to think things like endorsements/marketing will mean a lot to him.

Baseball players make almost nothing in endorsements. The last data I saw was from 2016. Joe Mauer was in the top 10 at a million a year.. A sport like basketball sell shoes.  Otani signature cleats are not going to cut it. Otani would always have a market in Japan regardless of where he plays

[FargoFanMan]

Gerrit Cole seems the most realistic out of that group for Gordon/a pitcher/2 decent prospects. I would make that deal and make a real push for the playoffs right now. I would also sign Lance Lynn (and target higher). This totally reshapes the rotation and it not only looks good but contender worthy.

 

Gordon is a nice prospect but he isn't critically needed to take over for Dozier IF he leaves. Starting pitching is CRITICALLY NEEDED and the Twins might have to part with Gordon to get it.

I was wanting Cole at the deadline. He has ace stuff and a bit of a chip on his shoulder. I believe he is due for a cy young break out season and his team control matches up with our window. I'll take a guy like this over a couple of prospects. What about Gordon, Romero, Thorpe and Wade? Does that get it done? ID rather keep Gonsalves over Romero at this point. Not sure why. Romero reminds me too much of Liriano at this point in his career.