Twins 2018 payroll

[Mike Sixel]

$4MM for Escobar is peanuts, for Sano insurance. They need Sano insurance. 

 

If they can't sign a FA SP and 1-2 RPs, and/or a DH, then they should fold up the business now. They aren't league median in salary, their "rebuild that was never a rebuild" has given them an offensive core, and Mauer is off the books after next year, as is ESan. 

 

And no, they aren't signing Machado as someone posted up thread. That's just not happening.

[drjim]

Upon further review, Escobar finished the year strong and should probably get the $4 MM arbitration next year. Even with expected regression, he's good 3B insurance.

 

I still wouldn't offer Gibson arbitration and aim higher via trade/FA using the $20 MM in the budget.

They should be able to keep Gibson and aim equally high.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Resigning Esco should be a sure thing.

A .758 OPS from a guy who can play every position on the field and several of them pretty well is a valuable asset. 

Doesn't hurt that everyone on the team seems to love him.

[Vanimal46]

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

Assuming they have a 110m or so payroll, which would be the second highest ever for the Twins, that gives them only around 20m or so to add on.

 

 

Fangraphs posted "An Estimate of Every Team's Payroll Room" 

 

Your estimate of around $20 million is on par with what they think as well. 

[Doomtints]

The key piece of the puzzle is the Twins budget, which we don't know. 

 

If we knew their budget we could make guesses and make smart (maybe) suggestions. Their expenditures are an incomplete piece of the puzzle and are nearly useless without knowing the budget.

 

I suspect the Pohlad who runs the team now is using the Twins as his only source of personal income, but I could be wrong. So ... just as the elder Pohlad was starting to open up the coffers, the team may have been crippled by a younger Pohlad needing to maintain a lifestyle. As I said, I could be wrong, this year will be a good indicator of what is to come.

Bear in mind that the Twins have a pretty good team even if on the cheap, so I wouldn't take this as a big tragedy.

[drjim]

Fangraphs posted "An Estimate of Every Team's Payroll Room"

 

Your estimate of around $20 million is on par with what they think as well.

This article doesn't say much of anything about what will happen. It assumes all teams were at their budget limit last year and will increase by 5%.

 

I don't find that especially accurate for all 30 teams.

[spanman2]

 

As a fan, I'd love to see the Twins get their payroll up to $150 MM. I just don't know how realistic it is under the ownership of the Pohlad's.... 

I would say very very low likelihood of 150 million.  125 would be the most I would see them going up to in 2018.  Would be an instance where I would like to be incorrect but I just don't see it.

[spanman2]

 

$4MM for Escobar is peanuts, for Sano insurance. They need Sano insurance. 

 

If they can't sign a FA SP and 1-2 RPs, and/or a DH, then they should fold up the business now. They aren't league median in salary, their "rebuild that was never a rebuild" has given them an offensive core, and Mauer is off the books after next year, as is ESan. 

 

And no, they aren't signing Machado as someone posted up thread. That's just not happening.

I would give him 4m in a heart beat. 

[USAFChief]

The key piece of the puzzle is the Twins budget, which we don't know. 

 

If we knew their budget we could make guesses and make smart (maybe) suggestions. Their expenditures are an incomplete piece of the puzzle and are nearly useless without knowing the budget.

 

I suspect the Pohlad who runs the team now is using the Twins as his only source of personal income, but I could be wrong. So ... just as the elder Pohlad was starting to open up the coffers, the team may have been crippled by a younger Pohlad needing to maintain a lifestyle. As I said, I could be wrong, this year will be a good indicator of what is to come.

Bear in mind that the Twins have a pretty good team even if on the cheap, so I wouldn't take this as a big tragedy.

The Twins most certainly are not the Pohlad brothers only source of income.

 

https://www.forbes.com/profile/pohlad/

[Doomtints]

 

The Twins most certainly are not the Pohlad brothers only source of income.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/pohlad/

 

You're talking about something else. Is THIS Pohlad brother getting income from the other parts of the family business? I suspect not. 

[beckmt]

Pohlads have several branches of business,  they are out of banking, but have movies, car dealerships and other forms of income.  Do not know which brother owns which businessess, but they are all wealthy.  

[beckmt]

50 - 52% of revenue for payroll would be around 125 million for next year.  That is if the Twins are contenders and do not take a step back. Ticket revenue would be at a minimum $110 - $120 million at a minimum, rest of numbers I would need help filling in, concession income, TV and radio rights, National TV contract, stadium naming rights are a few of the streams of income above ticket income.

[USAFChief]

You're talking about something else. Is THIS Pohlad brother getting income from the other parts of the family business? I suspect not.

I'm talking about something else?

 

No, I'm talking about Jim Pohlad....who certainly has multiple sources of income besides the Twins.

 

Read the article, or any of dozens of others.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm talking about something else?

No, I'm talking about Jim Pohlad....who certainly has multiple sources of income besides the Twins.

Read the article, or any of dozens of others.

Yeah, I highly doubt the Pohlad estate was fractured into pieces and Jim only managed to get the Twins franchise, worth far less than the rest of the estate. The Pohlad kids likely have something approaching equal stakes in all of Carl's businesses, they just cordoned them off and let each kid run one of the businesses.

 

They're all corporations. There's no reason each kid wouldn't get a percentage of every holding.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

50 - 52% of revenue for payroll would be around 125 million for next year.  That is if the Twins are contenders and do not take a step back. Ticket revenue would be at a minimum $110 - $120 million at a minimum, rest of numbers I would need help filling in, concession income, TV and radio rights, National TV contract, stadium naming rights are a few of the streams of income above ticket income.

A huge percentage of income is committed before a single game is played. It's almost unthinkable the Twins won't have a larger revenue stream in 2018 than they did in 2017. The previous season has as much, if not more, impact on the current season than anything happening during the current season.

 

The 2017 Twins barely topped their 2016 attendance numbers, despite winning 26 or so more games and reaching the postseason. Expect 2018 to be considerably better in that regard.

[laloesch]

Inflation isn't going to move the needle that much. The Twins don't have one of those big TV deals that seemingly every other team got. They've always been a modest franchise and they hired Falvey who has experience in building small market teams through the draft and trades and not spending big in FA. I doubt that was an accident. 

 

And here is what Levine said in a recent interview - "We all know where the Minnesota's payroll ranks among the 30 clubs. We're not going to be in the top 10, and we're fine with that. There's no excuses about the payroll. .... And if we're acknowledging that we're going to be a little bit behind on the payroll, we tried to present to ownership—we shouldn't be behind on the infrastructure because if you're not spending on the field and also not spending off the field, outside of sheer dumb luck, I'm not sure how you're vanquishing foes, and our goal is to vanquish the foes."

 

That doesn't sound like a GM who thinks payroll is going to increase much. Maybe the Twins can get close to 120m payroll but I would bet it's closer to 110m.

 

Yeah doesn't sound promising.  Maybe 120-130's.  Once Mauer and Hughes are off the books they will have a lot more flexibility but a lot of that will end up being consumed by Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, maybe Kepler IMO.

[old nurse]

 

You're talking about something else. Is THIS Pohlad brother getting income from the other parts of the family business? I suspect not. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=4924679&privcapId=851754&previousCapId=32854&previousTitle=PEPSICO%20INC

 

I would guess the owners of the Twins is Pohlad Family Inc. or as it is called elsewhere The Pohlad Group.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=4924679&privcapId=851754&previousCapId=32854&previousTitle=PEPSICO%20INC

 

I would guess the owners of the Twins is Pohlad Family Inc. or as it is called elsewhere The Pohlad Group.

Thanks. I suspected they operated under a conglomerate company but never really looked into it. They have too many holdings to piecemeal things together.

[amjgt]

Yeah doesn't sound promising. Maybe 120-130's. Once Mauer and Hughes are off the books they will have a lot more flexibility but a lot of that will end up being consumed by Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, maybe Kepler IMO.

130s would be incredibly promising.

[laloesch]

 

130s would be incredibly promising.

 

If they could trade for Cole, sign Otani and sign Darvish in the 25-30 mil range.....one can only dream.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If they could trade for Cole, sign Otani and sign Darvish in the 25-30 mil range.....one can only dream.

 

Honestly, 2 of the 3 would be nice with one being Otani. I'd rather use the rest to get RP help.

[laloesch]

 

Honestly, 2 of the 3 would be nice with one being Otani. I'd rather use the rest to get RP help.

 

I'm glad to see they are exploring the trade routes as well.  RP help would be good as well.

[amjgt]

I said this in another thread, but it's more appropriate here.

 

What about going to Mauer and offering a 2/22 extension, but then smoothing out the next three years to 15/15/15 instead of 23/11/11?

 

This would provide some flexibility to the team for 2018 and maybe allow the Twins to add one more important piece (if they are working with an internal "hard cap")

[amjgt]

Also, can we pay Hughes $1 per year for the next 13,000,000 years?

[old nurse]

 

I said this in another thread, but it's more appropriate here.

What about going to Mauer and offering a 2/22 extension, but then smoothing out the next three years to 15/15/15 instead of 23/11/11?

This would provide some flexibility to the team for 2018 and maybe allow the Twins to add one more important piece (if they are working with an internal "hard cap")

No athlete in any sports negotiates a guaranteed contract downwards. Mauer is not going to sign an 11 million a year contract. That would acknowledge that his skills are gone.

[amjgt]

Well... he's not getting 23, so based on that logic I guess he's retiring.