Article: Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?

[kellyvance]

Ok, but Doze and Joe ain't the problem. Not at all

[ashbury]

Come on Kelly, lighten up

Ok, but Doze and Joe ain't the problem. Not at all

By any chance were adult beverages involved in the production of this suite of posts?

[laloesch]

To be blunt and to the point.  Yes and no.  Mauer is what he is at this point but he's trying.  Brian on the other hand, just shut your pie hole already and play ball.  When your no longer playing and in a front office management position then you can talk.  Until then, sit down and shut up.  

Edited August 9, 2017 by laloesch

[Craig Arko]

 

To be blunt and to the point.  Yes and no.  Mauer is what he is at this point but he's trying.  Brian on the other hand, just shut your pie hole already and play ball.  When your no longer playing and in a front office management position then you can talk.  Until then, sit down and shut up.  

The company I work for encourages employee empowerment. The idea is not always practical but does have some real merit.

[laloesch]

 

The company I work for encourages employee empowerment. The idea is not always practical but does have some real merit.

empowerment is not the same thing as dissension and insubordination.

[Craig Arko]

 

empowerment is not the same thing as dissension and insubordination.

Perhaps others see things through different lenses.

[laloesch]

 

Perhaps others see things through different lenses.

 

Your right.  And i agree with what you are saying in principal.  There is no problem with having a voice at the place of work, but Dozier's comments were inappropriate and out of line IMO.

[jharaldson]

I am going to interpret Nick's question as "Can we win a World Series with Mauer and/or Dozier?".  To examine this I am going to first look at how they are doing this year against their peers at their positions.

 

Dozier OPS - .799
Average 2B OPS - .734

 

Mauer OPS - .733
Average 1B OPS - .819

 

Based on this I would say that Dozier is an above average 2B and Mauer is a well below average 1B.

 

Next I am going to look at the World Series winners from the past 15 years to see what kind of production they got out of their 1B and 2B positions.

 

1B

 

2B

 

As you can see Dozier is effectively an average World Series winning 2B and has a better OPS than 8 of the 15 World Series winning 2B over the past 15 years.

 

You can also see that Mauer is performing significantly below what the average World Series winning 1B has done the past 15 years and his OPS is .048 points worse than the worst 1B in this list.

 

In short, I think that Dozier produces enough to be a 2B on a World Series winner and I think Mauer cannot be the starter at 1B on a World Series winner.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Very interesting post! And I wonder sometimes about Dozier's numbers in regard to RISP. Are his low numbers a result of SSS hitting leadoff with poor hitters in front of him? Or is he truly bad in this scenario? Is don't have numbers either way, but wondering.

Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

 

It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

 

There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

 

Career: .767 OPS

RISP: .769 OPS

 

Um. So yeah.

[Ryan Atkins]

 

He's 9th in WAR out of 11 AL 2nd baseman this year.  Your 2014-2017 sample size uses all counting stats, in which he's one of only 4 players to play 500 games (he's at 569).  

 

You don't extend someone because of past performance, you extend based on the future, and he'll be entering his age 32 season when his contract is up

 

My sample shows consistency and reliability. Yours shows a 4 month snapshot which is already wrong after less than 3 days. Dozier is now 7th in WAR (not 9th) for AL 2B. Ahead of such scrubs as Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis. League-wide, if you're only interested in WAR, Dozier is ahead of the likes of Adam Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew Benintendi, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Yasiel Puig, and Albert Pujols.

 

Dozier (31 next May) will cost $9m next year. A bargain. Pedroia (34) will cost $16m and Kipnis (30) will cost $13.6m.

[Mr. Brooks]

Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

 

It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

 

There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

 

Career: .767 OPS

RISP: .769 OPS

 

Um. So yeah.

No, not a weird narrative on the board. One poster who doesn't like Dozier.

[kellyvance]

 

By any chance were adult beverages involved in the production of this suite of posts?

Naw, just trying to lighten the mood

[kellyvance]

"Dozier has been his usual self: one of the game's better power-hitting middle infielders, and a fine defender, but not an upper-echelon player."

 

Did I hear you correctly?

 

Dozier has averaged over 20 HRs for the past 4 years as a middle infielder and hit 42 last year and he is not an upper echelon player?  Who else hit 42 HRs last year? Since when does being in the top 5 or so HR hitters out of 650 players make you not upper echelon? 

 

Dozier can't hit with men on base? Really?  Did it ever occur to you that pitchers are extra careful pitching to Doz when men are on base?  And his at bats when hitting 3rd or 4th is too small a sample size to draw conclusions.Typecasting him as a leadoff hitter is silly. He is a power hitter, guys. And it is dumb to bat your best HR hitter leadoff. Rickey Henderson hit a lot of lead off homers, but he also stole 100 bases. Of course Rickey hit leadoff. Dozier should hit 3rd ahead of Sano and after Mauer.

 

As for can the Twins win with these guys.... that premise is insulting. Mauer's skills are eroding, but he is still a top clutch hitter. 

 

Doze and Mauer are NOT the problems on this team. 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2017 by kellyvance

[Thrylos]

 

As you can see Dozier is effectively an average World Series winning 2B and has a better OPS than 8 of the 15 World Series winning 2B over the past 15 years.

 

So, tell us about Lombardozzi...

Who the second basemen were in World Series winners means less than who their first 3 starting pitchers, their last 3 bullpen pitchers, and hitters 3-6 were.

 

Irrelevant. 

 

BTW, WAR, wRC+, wOBA put Dozier as the 10th-13th best second baseman in the league.  This is right at the middle quadrant.