AL Central 2018 -- Is the door open?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would also add, it is quite likely none of May, Gonsalves or Romero will be ready on day 1 next season.

Dunno, I think Gonsalves has to be close to ready now. We'll see how the rest of the season plays out.

[markos]

 

The Royals should have some money to re-sign someone, right? Hosmer, Cain, and Moustakas aren't playing for free right now. And not all of their pending FA are good -- losing Alcides Escobar would probably be addition by subtraction. They should be able to stay in the hunt next year...

The Royals backloaded a bunch of their contracts, so even though they have a lot of players coming off the books, they are only freeing up $10M-$20M (depending on what they do with arbitration and options). And I've read that they are probably beyond their payroll limit at their current $140M level. I don't see them signing anyone significant, though I could see one of Hosmer, Cain, or Moustakas accepting a qualifying offer.

[gunnarthor]

Well, Garcia is a FA at the end of the season and the Twins were clearly interested in him. He's not going to get much more than a 2 or 3 year deal at most and it'll probably be in the 12-15m/AAV bin. So I could see us getting him. 

I'd certainly listen on offers for Santana right now but if we have to keep him, a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Garcia, Mejia, Gibson with Gonsalves/Romero et al in the wings is doable. We'd still need to upgrade the pen but it's an ok starting spot. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, Garcia is a FA at the end of the season and the Twins were clearly interested in him. He's not going to get much more than a 2 or 3 year deal at most and it'll probably be in the 12-15m/AAV bin. So I could see us getting him.

Yeah, Garcia is pretty much what some were hoping (realistically) for Santiago earlier this season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't mind trading Burdi for Gracia to shore up the 2017 rotation, but I really hope they are aiming higher for a 2018 FA acquisition... just my 2 cents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Royals backloaded a bunch of their contracts, so even though they have a lot of players coming off the books, they are only freeing up $10M-$20M (depending on what they do with arbitration and options). And I've read that they are probably beyond their payroll limit at their current $140M level. I don't see them signing anyone significant, though I could see one of Hosmer, Cain, or Moustakas accepting a qualifying offer.

You're right, somehow the Royals have $100 mil already committed for 2018 despite all those pending FAs.

 

Hosmer is a Boras client and Boras has talked of cashing in -- I have to imagine he will try to parlay his solid season into a longer contract.  Cain and Moustakas both previously signed multi-year deals to avoid arbitration, so they would seem more likely to re-up with KC somehow.

 

They do have some contracts ending after 2018 (Soria, Hammel, Moss, Wood) and 2019 (Gordon), so in theory they could sign someone this winter to another backloaded deal.

 

But yeah, they're in a far tougher buy-or-sell position than the Twins right now!

[kab21]

FWIW - the window to the AL Central is open now and I would get a head start on adding players for 2018 by going after one of the pitchers that is under control through at least 2019. Add one now and then spend some big money in FA again. That is the path to a really good rotation instead of a 'get the Twins by' rotation.

 

They still need some bullpen arms but take care of starting pitching first. The rest isn't impossible to add later. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I'd go with one starter. You have Berrios and Santana up front. You pick up a free agent starter as your third guy.

 

After that, you leave two spots open for Mejia, May, Gonsalves, and Romero.

 

Santana is going to be 35 and every stat but his wins and ERA are pointing in frighteningly alarming directions. I'm not counting on him being a front of the rotation guy next year. I too think they need two front of the rotation guys if they want to compete next year. Maybe they get lucky and Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero or someone else internally surprises everyone.

 

Not that I think the team absolutely must spend or trade big to find those front of the rotation guys, I'm convinced there are younger guys who can be had who are currently undervalued. This team has to do it's due diligence to find them. There's no reason this team can't find one of the half dozen bounce-back/breakout arms that arise each year.

[beckmt]

 

Mauer is still under contract as your DH in 2018

Yes but I am looking at budget for 2018 and beyond and Mauer is beyond.  Maybe he will retire, but if he has this year at the current pace and next year about the same doubt he will retire, so am looking at a 2 year deal in parameters above. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Santana is going to be 35 and every stat but his wins and ERA are pointing in frighteningly alarming directions. I'm not counting on him being a front of the rotation guy next year. I also think they need two front of the rotation guys if they want to compete next year. Maybe they get lucky and Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero or someone else internally surprises everyone.

 

Not that I think the team has to spend or trade big to find those front of the rotaoin guys, I'm convinced there are younger guys who can be had who are currently undervalued. This team has to do it's due diligence to find them.

I sorta agree regarding Santana. I think he'll still be an innings eater and positive role model for  young pitchers so I'm ok keeping him. But I would expect something closer to 2.0 WAR, 100 ERA+ next year. They should listen on him but if they don't get a good offer, keep him.

 

They should also be listening on Rosario and Grossman.

[hugelycat]

I'd like to see us spend aggressively this offseason. We're just starting a window of contention, and that's the best time to spend on free agents.

 

Unfortunately, it's not a great free agent class for starting pitchers. Darvish will get a mega-deal out of our price range, Arrieta probably will also. I'd love to go after Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn, who have both been very good, but are coming off injuries where they missed all of 2016. Tyson Ross is a similar possibility, but he's been terrible since coming back this year.

 

You can hope that Jason Vargas keeps going on pixie dust as he turns 35, but I wouldn't bet on it. The next tier is mostly guys like Jaime Garcia, who would be big improvements to the back end of our rotation, but wouldn't have much upside. Getting one of those guys would be great, but not if it stops us from going after someone with higher upside.

[drjim]

 

I'd like to see us spend aggressively this offseason. We're just starting a window of contention, and that's the best time to spend on free agents.

 

Unfortunately, it's not a great free agent class for starting pitchers. Darvish will get a mega-deal out of our price range, Arrieta probably will also. I'd love to go after Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn, who have both been very good, but are coming off injuries where they missed all of 2016. Tyson Ross is a similar possibility, but he's been terrible since coming back this year.

 

You can hope that Jason Vargas keeps going on pixie dust as he turns 35, but I wouldn't bet on it. The next tier is mostly guys like Jaime Garcia, who would be big improvements to the back end of our rotation, but wouldn't have much upside. Getting one of those guys would be great, but not if it stops us from going after someone with higher upside.

 

I would like them to add two. One of the injury upside guys and one of the less exciting 3-4 types. A trade could also be possible, which would improve the quality of pitcher, but also give up some assets needed for next year.

[nicksaviking]

 

I sorta agree regarding Santana. I think he'll still be an innings eater and positive role model for  young pitchers so I'm ok keeping him. But I would expect something closer to 2.0 WAR, 100 ERA+ next year. They should listen on him but if they don't get a good offer, keep him.

 

They should also be listening on Rosario and Grossman.

 

The days when free agents got paid based almost solely on what they did the prior year(s) is over. Today it's more about what will you do for me now. I don't think clubs always use that same logic with their players under contract. There's a lot of 'bird in the hand' mentality even if everything indicates that the bird looks like he's about to lay an egg.

[nicksaviking]

I also think the White Sox could suprise everyone and start contending at any moment. The team looks flat out awful, but a lot of the guys they traded for are already MLB ready and they are going to have some serious money to spend when they're ready. They may perhaps hold off on the free agency lunacy until 2019 though when everyone's drooling about Harper and Machado.

[bluechipper]

One area I would like to see improved next year is the primary DH/occasional OFer. How would 4 years and $80M to JD Martinez sound? 

 

Add a starting pitcher at about $10M and a setup guy for $5M and that's a dangerous team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Santana is going to be 35 and every stat but his wins and ERA are pointing in frighteningly alarming directions. I'm not counting on him being a front of the rotation guy next year. I too think they need two front of the rotation guys if they want to compete next year. Maybe they get lucky and Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero or someone else internally surprises everyone.

 

Not that I think the team absolutely must spend or trade big to find those front of the rotation guys, I'm convinced there are younger guys who can be had who are currently undervalued. This team has to do it's due diligence to find them. There's no reason this team can't find one of the half dozen bounce-back/breakout arms that arise each year.

On that we probably agree. I'm looking to win in 2018 but maybe not decidedly. Add a few pieces, improve the team out of Spring Training. Add pieces if/when necessary as the season progresses. Then, based on what Gonsalves, May, Romero, et al have or have not done, aim higher the following offseason.

 

This team doesn't need to fix all its problems in a single offseason. Shore up a few things, sign a few guys to smart deals, and get better. That's what I'm looking for right now. The Twins don't need to break open the bank this offseason but they do need to pick up several quality players that will make the team better in April of 2018.

[gunnarthor]

 

One area I would like to see improved next year is the primary DH/occasional OFer. How would 4 years and $80M to JD Martinez sound? 

 

Add a starting pitcher at about $10M and a setup guy for $5M and that's a dangerous team.

Martinez might get 4/80 but a good starting pitcher - even a Nolasco type - is going to get more than 10m/season.  And setup guys like Tony Sipp are getting at least 6m/season.

 

The high price of relief pitchers is one of the biggest problems we've had with our draft relievers strategy - Reed, Burdi, Melo, Bard, Curtiss, Clay, Chargois etc - none but Duffey has made it yet. I thought we had the makings of a killer bullpen in the minors but we've been hanging onto that thought for years with nothing to show for it.

[Doomtints]

 

Mauer is actually having a good year and if you resign him for 2 years at $5 - $7 million a year, could work well.  

Nah, let some other team do that.

[kab21]

 

One area I would like to see improved next year is the primary DH/occasional OFer. How would 4 years and $80M to JD Martinez sound? 

 

Add a starting pitcher at about $10M and a setup guy for $5M and that's a dangerous team.

As long as ownership opens up the piggy bank (A LOT) this would be great. First and foremost they need a top pitcher and not a 10M option.

[Ncgo4]

I think it's time we find out if our minor league pitchers are actually ready to play. Gondalves & Romero are at the age and have demoed the skill level in the minors to deserve a cup of coffee so we know just what we have. By the end of the week the season could be on a steep slide south so it's time.

[Brandon]

I would like to see Thad Lavine bring us Darvish from Texas on say a 6 year 150 to 168 million... resign Kintzler to a 2 or 3 year deal in the 6 to 8 million per season. If they do this i would even be fine with another Belisle 1 year 2 million deal. Especially if he keeps pitching like he has the last 5 weeks. I also think it may be smart for Dozier to look into an extention here. 4 year 56 million to 5 year 70 million. He wont do much better as a free agent with no one needing a second baseman unless LA steps in which i doubt. We do need his power and he wont lead off anywhere else.... lastly we could use a right handed bat. I think that can be Garver though.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes but I am looking at budget for 2018 and beyond and Mauer is beyond.  Maybe he will retire, but if he has this year at the current pace and next year about the same doubt he will retire, so am looking at a 2 year deal in parameters above. 

 

You realize he's below median as a 1B, and you want to spend legit RP money on him, and not a RP? No way. Or even one of the bounce back SP? No way. 

[jimmer]

Mauer is the best defensive 1B in the AL (best in DRS and UZR) and has helped the infielders a ton with his play. Offensively he's sporting a 108 wRC+ (9th out of 14 AL 1B).  He's not a star anymore but he's hardly a detriment.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As the Royals are about to find out even with the amount of money they pull in and how well that team is supported it is harder to sustain a large payroll with huge dollars going to a lot of players. There are only a few media markets like the Dodgers and Red Sox that can pull off 150 to 200 million dollar payrolls.

14 teams entered the 2017 season with a payroll over $150m. The Twins were at $108m so they have plenty of flexibility to push toward, say, $130m. That gives management a whopping $35m-ish once you subtract expiring contracts.

 

And that's ignoring Mauer's $23m that will come of the books in 14 months. The Twins have no excuse not to spend this offseason. They can add $25m each year for the next two seasons and still only end up at $130-135m (of course, some of that will go to existing players but not a lot).

[drjim]

14 teams entered the 2017 season with a payroll over $150m. The Twins were at $108m so they have plenty of flexibility to push toward, say, $130m. That gives management a whopping $35m-ish once you subtract expiring contracts.

 

And that's ignoring Mauer's $23m that will come of the books in 14 months. The Twins have no excuse not to spend this offseason. They can add $25m each year for the next two seasons and still only end up at $130-135m (of course, some of that will go to existing players but not a lot).

I know intradivision can be a little complicated, but this is a reason that Verlander is attractive. Twins are well positioned to take the salary on.

 

I'd trust him over potential free agents.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know intradivision can be a little complicated, but this is a reason that Verlander is attractive. Twins are well positioned to take the salary on.

I'd trust him over potential free agents.

If you can get Verlander for next to nothing, sure.

 

But that's unlikely to be the case so I would steer clear. Verlander is posting pretty mediocre numbers this season, is 34 years old, and is guaranteed a whopping $56m over the next two seasons.

[beckmt]

 

You realize he's below median as a 1B, and you want to spend legit RP money on him, and not a RP? No way. Or even one of the bounce back SP? No way. 

I consider Mauer about average between hitting and fielding for a 1B man.  5-7 million a year is low for that type. Mauer is just different in that his OBP is higher than most first baseman, he is a better fielder than most, just he does not have the extra base potential of other players in his position.  Therefore since the Twins do not have an obvious replacement(unless you move Sano there) and that leaves the 3B hole.