Article: Part 6: Seth's Midseason Top 40 Twins Prospects (1-5)

[Seth Stohs]

Over the last two weeks, I have updated you on my midseason Top 40 Minnesota Twins prospects rankings. In Part 1 I shared my choices for prospects 31-40. Part 2 was prospects 21-30. Earlier this week, we entered the Top 20 with my selections for Twins Prospects 16-20, and prospects 11-15. Yesterday, in Part 5, we discussed Twins prospects six through ten. Below you’ll find brief profiles my choices for the Twins top five prospects. I also welcome your questions and discussion in the forum.I don’t think there are any major surprises in this grouping. The top four players are the same four players I had in the preseason. And my preseason #6 moved up to #5 with Tyler Jay’s move to the bullpen and a couple of injuries. The order of your top four may vary. I’d be curious how you have them ranked and why.

And as is the case with all prospect rankings, only time will tell what they become, but these are five worth watching closely

 

 

5. Lewin Diaz, 1B, 20

The Twins signed the burly first baseman in July of 2013 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.4 million. He spent 2014 in the Dominican Summer League. He began 2015 in the GCL before finishing in Elizabethton. That’s where he spent 2016, and he responded by being the Twins Daily short season minor league hitter of the year. He has been a force so far this season with the Kernels. He has hit .292/.329/.516 (.844) through the team’s first 50 games. He has a Twins organization-leading 20 doubles so far to go with seven home runs. As impressive for the 20-year-old has been, his strikeout rate is right around 15% which is terrific. He has his moments around first base, but he certainly has the ability to be more than adequate with the glove. Doubles are a good indicator of future power, and ultimately Diaz’s value to the Twins will be in his power.

 

Preseason Ranking: 6

 

 

4. Alex Kirilloff, OF, 19

Kirilloff was the Twins first-round pick in 2016, the fifteenth overall selection. At Plum HS near Pittsburgh, he played center field, first base and did a bit of pitching. However, it was his bat that got him noticed and drafted so high. Upon signing, he was sent to Elizabethton where he hit .306 with nine doubles and seven homers in 55 games. However, late in the season, he left a game holding his left elbow. This spring, he had Tommy John surgery and will miss the full season. It certainly is not unprecedented for a position player to have elbow surgery. Look no further than the Twins’ Miguel Sano. And if there is an organization that has plenty of people to talk to about the surgery, it is the Twins who have had many. Kirilloff can hit, and while he’ll need to adjust again next spring, he should be able to put up some offensive numbers, including power. Defensively, he profiles as a right fielder who could be a first base option down the line.

 

Preseason Ranking: 3

 

 

3. Fernando Romero, RHP, 23

Speaking of Tommy John survivors, Romero is on that list. He returned in mid-May of last year after missing nearly two years due to the surgery (and a subsequent knee injury). When he returned, he immediately shot up prospect rankings because of his big fastball (98+), really dominant breaking pitches, general control and performance. Romero was added to the Twins 40-man roster after last season. After his time in big league camp, he was sent to Chattanooga where it’s been a bit of a mixed bag, but his prospect status remains high. He is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA in ten appearances (nine starts, and his one relief appearance was starting a suspended game). In 52 innings, he has given up 49 hits, walked 22 and struck out 49 batters. Some think he could be a decent contributor in the Twins bullpen now, but they need to build up his innings to be a starter as he has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Preseason Ranking: 2

Pre-2016 Ranking: 27

Pre-2015 Ranking: 25

 

 

2. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, 22

Gonsalves was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2016 (and Twins Daily’s Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year) when he went a combined 13-5 with a 2.31 ERA between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. It was his dominance of AA that really opened a lot of eyes. Gonsalves was the Twins fourth-round draft pick in 2013 out of high school near San Diego. He has gradually and consistently worked his way up the system, experiencing a lot of success along the way. While Gonsalves doesn’t light up the radar gun like Romero, he is a very smart pitcher who understands how to work opposing batters. He was invited to big league spring training and performed well in very limited opportunity before experiencing the same issue in the back of his left shoulder that he had in the Arizona Fall League last year. He has made three starts in Chattanooga of late and pitched well. In 17 innings, he has given up 11 hits, walked two and struck out 18 batters. As his velocity returns this summer, he should also move up to Rochester, and maybe even some big league time.

 

Preseason Ranking: 1

Pre-2016 Ranking: 6

Pre-2015 Ranking: 15

Pre-2014 Ranking: 13

 

 

1. Nick Gordon, SS, 21

Gordon came to the Twins as their first-round draft pick in 2014 out of high school in Orlando. He went straight to Elizabethton. He spent 2015 in Cedar Rapids and 2016 with the Miracle and Ft. Myers. Following his 2016 season, he went to the Arizona Fall League and his status really took a step forward. He hit .346 (.862) and played a lot of shortstop. He was invited to big league camp. I talked to him shortly after he was sent back to minor league camp, and he was glowing, talking about the confidence he had gained from the Fall League and his time in big league camp. He was expecting a strong season. So far, so good. Through his first 49 games, he has hit .306/.377/.490 (.867). He split time early in the season, playing about 2/3 of his games at shortstop and 1/3 of his games at second base, but since Engelb Vielma was sent to Rochester, Gordon has been playing exclusively shortstop.His offense has taken a step forward. His defense has taken a step forward. Gordon’s game has become quite well-rounded and he could be ready to start for the Twins within the next 12-14 months.

 

Preseason Ranking: 4

Pre-2016 Ranking: 4

Pre-2015 Ranking: 4

 

 

So there you have it, a quick (six-part) review of my personal midseason (pre-draft) Top 40 Prospect rankings and how those guys have done through the All Star break this year. If you missed any of the previous rankings, you can find them here:

 

Part 1: Prospects 31-40

Part 2: Prospects 21-30

Part 3: Prospects 16-20

Part 4: Prospects 11-15

Part 5: Prospects 6-10

 

 

 

Feel free to discuss any of these prospects and ask any questions that you may have. Of course, we also welcome your Top 10 or 20 prospect rankings as well.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

Thanks, Seth!  Great work!  Gotta ask about the starters:  Any chance of Gonsalves and Romero getting a MLB audition soon?  I'm not really seeing any reason not to.  3-4 starts would/could provide some benefits....

 

Geez, seems like someone has put a voodoo curse on the Twins MiLB.  I hope Kirilloff can turn it around quickly.  

 

[drjim]

Gonsalves continues to impress, working his way to more mid-rotation than backend. Twins could certainly use that.

 

If he stays healthy I would give him a pretty good shot to make his debut by mid-August.

[Sssuperdave]

Very exciting that the top three prospects are in AA and performing well. Even though the overall farm system isn't as strong as it used to be, the top three could start meaningfully contributing to the Twins as early as next year. When you add Gonsalves, Romero, and Gordon to the already forming young core of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Berrios, you have the makings of a team that could compete for several years. It kind of feels like the early 00s when Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, and Santana were all breaking in.

[drjim]

If they draft Wright, there's a decent chance he'd be up by late next season too.

 

A nice little second wave to back up the one that is emerging this year.

[Tom Froemming]

At first I was surprised you bumped Gordon to 1, though I'm sure it was a close call, but holy smokes that slugging percentage! I knew he already set a career high in HRs (4), but it's pretty amazing that SLG is 100 points higher than he's ever had. And at 21, he's only going to get bigger and stronger. Exciting stuff.

[Steve Lein]

Been saying it everywhere: Gordon's bat has been underrated. Hopefully it won't be anymore after this season. 

 

He was my preseason pick for Hitter of the Year, and he would have been #1 for me coming into the season.

 

Great to see Gonsalves having success right away after returning. Romero has been turning it on too.

 

The reinforcements are coming, the Twins just need to weather their 50 games in 50 days storm enough for them to matter later this summer!

[mikelink45]

This is the place where I see some real potential, but Kirilloff would not be in my top five.  Old fashioned as I must be I have to see players play their way to the top of the list and until he gets back and puts things together again I would drop him from the top group.   The starting pitchers look like they are ready and I do not think AAA should be a prerequisite for hitting MLB.  

 

Next is the nice problem - Gordon is close to being ready for the Twins, but the positions in the IF are filled.  Where does he go, where is the shuffle?  Dozier/Polanco/Gordon - what is the outlook?

[Mike Sixel]

That is not a sexy top 5, imo. Kiriloff hasn't played, and Diaz is a DH, maybe 1B. 

 

I do love Gordon, have since HS. And, one has to feel good about Gonsalves, but I'm not sure he's more than a 3 or 4.

 

Unless they pick Pavin Smith, their first round pick this year will either be number 1 or 2 on this list the day he is picked. I'm hopeful that's Wright, and that they are aggressive with him.

[jmlease1]

I probably wouldn't rate Kirilioff this high either, despite his fine early performance at Elizabethon; while he has all the potential in the world, it really is a major ijury and there's not enough track record yet to feel confident that he'll bounce back all the way...because we don't know what that is yet. But he's still a nice hitting prospect.

 

Really excited about Nick Gordon and I agree with his ranking as the number one prospect. He's playing and developing exactly like you'd hope right now, and with Polanco doing fine at SS right now there's no need to rush his development. That said, it certainly would make trading Dozier much less painful if he keeps pushing forward like this and ends in Rochester (sliding Polanco to 2B).

 

I would also love to have a LHP option like Gonsalves in our rotation, and I'm not worried about the velocity, I'm worried about his shoulder. I hope we have the best of the best keeping an eye on that. If it'll keep him healthy, bring in an ancient mystic from China, seal him off in a hyperbaric chamber between starts, spend his offseason in suspended animation...

[Thrylos]

Gonsalves has turned a corner.  Small sample size or not, in 3 games (17 IP) he allowed only 2 walks.  His career number is bit north of 3 BB/9.  Last season at Chattanooga he was 4.5 BB/9.   I hope he keeps that up; if so, he will get himself in the conversation for a rotation spot with the Twins next season

 

Good to see Gordon finally hitting (and taking walks) at that level.   Heir apparent to Dozier or centerpiece for a top of the rotation potential MLB-ready prospect.

 

Kirillof, on the other hand still has to prove himself.  Over-rated in this ranking by far, if you take into consideration that he performed worse than his teammates Blakenhorn and Diaz last season, and he is out with an injury.

Edited June 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I love Gordon at #1. Everybody had to see the offensive surge heading into the year considering his time in Arizona, his age, and how tough the FSL is on hitter stats. He's always hit for average, and now he's getting stronger and adding pop to his game.

 

Any ideas where Gordon is/will be on national prospect lists? Especially if he can stick at SS, I gotta imagine he's a Top 10 guy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I love Gordon at #1. Everybody had to see the offensive surge heading into the year considering his time in Arizona, his age, and how tough the FSL is on hitter stats. He's always hit for average, and now he's getting stronger and adding pop to his game.

 

Any ideas where Gordon is/will be on national prospect lists? Especially if he can stick at SS, I gotta imagine he's a Top 10 guy.

 

That would be a huge jump up the lists. I'm going with around 25 or so, which is still a HUGE jump.

Edited June 2, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Vanimal46]

 

I love Gordon at #1. Everybody had to see the offensive surge heading into the year considering his time in Arizona, his age, and how tough the FSL is on hitter stats. He's always hit for average, and now he's getting stronger and adding pop to his game.

 

Any ideas where Gordon is/will be on national prospect lists? Especially if he can stick at SS, I gotta imagine he's a Top 10 guy.

 

Top 10 may be a bit aggressive... He was #50 on MLBPipeline's pre-season list. He could be flirting with #25-35 now. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Top 10 may be a bit aggressive... He was #50 on MLBPipeline's pre-season list. He could be flirting with #25-35 now. 

 

jinx

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

If they draft Wright, there's a decent chance he'd be up by late next season too.

A nice little second wave to back up the one that is emerging this year.

 

Throw me on the Wright bandwagon. I'd much rather see the #1 pick in the Twins top 5 on a track to get to MN in the next year or two rather than having Greene and potentially wait 5 years for him to get to the majors.

 

I think the Twins should focus on 2018 or 2019 as the opportunity to compete for a title and Wright or any other top college arm would help with that cause.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Gonsalves has turned a corner.  Small sample size or not, in 3 games (17 IP) he allowed only 2 walks.  His career number is bit north of 3 BB/9.  Last season at Chattanooga he was 4.5 BB/9.   I hope he keeps that up; if so, he will get himself in the conversation for a rotation spot with the Twins next season

 

Good to see Gordon finally hitting (and taking walks) at that level.   Heir apparent to Dozier or centerpiece for a top of the rotation potential MLB-ready prospect.

 

Kirillof, on the other hand still has to prove himself.  Over-rated in this ranking by far, if you take into consideration that he performed worse than his teammates Blakenhorn and Diaz last season, and he is out with an injury.

 

I'd rather have Kirilloff than Blankenhorn or Diaz.

[drjim]

 

I'd rather have Kirilloff than Blankenhorn or Diaz.

 

I would too, and it's not especially close.

 

Kirilloff seems a little high, but there aren't clear alternatives. I'd go Javier #4, Mejia #5, the Kirilloff #6, but that's a small quibble. After #6, the system takes a clear step down.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would too, and it's not especially close.

 

Kirilloff seems a little high, but there aren't clear alternatives. I'd go Javier #4, Mejia #5, the Kirilloff #6, but that's a small quibble. After #6, the system takes a clear step down.

 

Yeah. I think I'd also rather have Wade than Blankenhorn or Diaz, and I'm not even super high on Wade . . . but when you're talking about 2nd/3rd tier upside, it seems like succeeding in higher levels takes on additional significance.

[drock2190]

I'd temper the enthusiasm on Gordon a bit. Heard his defense isn't as strong as they like and a move to 2nd base could be in his future.

[drjim]

Yeah. I think I'd also rather have Wade than Blankenhorn or Diaz, and I'm not even super high on Wade . . . but when you're talking about 2nd/3rd tier upside, it seems like succeeding in higher levels takes on additional significance.

I would probably put Wade #7, and he's a 4th of.

[drjim]

Barring a sell off, picks 35 and 37 will probably slot after Kirilloff. Not a great sign.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Barring a sell off, picks 35 and 37 will probably slot after Kirilloff. Not a great sign.

 

Deep, but lacking high upside. That's what we've been reading all year, and with the dropoff of RPs' health, it's even more true.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd temper the enthusiasm on Gordon a bit. Heard his defense isn't as strong as they like and a move to 2nd base could be in his future.

 

From whom? When? All I read is that scouts think he can stay there, not be elite, but be good.

[Steve Lein]

 

I love Gordon at #1. Everybody had to see the offensive surge heading into the year considering his time in Arizona, his age, and how tough the FSL is on hitter stats. He's always hit for average, and now he's getting stronger and adding pop to his game.

 

Any ideas where Gordon is/will be on national prospect lists? Especially if he can stick at SS, I gotta imagine he's a Top 10 guy.

 

I don't think he's top 10, but I would expect he's moved ahead of J.P. Crawford at this point as far as shortstops go, who was coming into the season.

[nater79a]

 

If they draft Wright, there's a decent chance he'd be up by late next season too.

A nice little second wave to back up the one that is emerging this year.

 

Not to mention maybe a "close to MLB ready" pitcher in any Ervin Santana selloff. Remains to be seen, I guess.

[caninatl04]

I apologize for my depression, but might it be possible to create a 25 man roster of Twins' minor leaguers made up exclusively of IR / Tommy John / DL?

[Pitz]

 

I'd temper the enthusiasm on Gordon a bit. Heard his defense isn't as strong as they like and a move to 2nd base could be in his future.

 

From whom? When? All I read is that scouts think he can stay there, not be elite, but be good.

 

Longenhagen mentioned something to this effect in his prospect notes from 5/17:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-517/

 

"Gordon is slashing an impressive .322/.383/.507 at Chattanooga but remains erratic and mistake prone on defense and now profiles as a bat-first middle infielder for scouts with increasing sentiment that he might need to move to second base."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Longenhagen mentioned something to this effect in his prospect notes from 5/17:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-517/

 

"Gordon is slashing an impressive .322/.383/.507 at Chattanooga but remains erratic and mistake prone on defense and now profiles as a bat-first middle infielder for scouts with increasing sentiment that he might need to move to second base."

 

thanks, I must have missed that. Appreciated. 

[bird]

 

I would too, and it's not especially close.

 

Kirilloff seems a little high, but there aren't clear alternatives. I'd go Javier #4, Mejia #5, the Kirilloff #6, but that's a small quibble. After #6, the system takes a clear step down.

 

 

This seems reasonable. I'm guessing Sickle's next letter grades will show that he sees the same sort of dropoff.