Eddie Rosario's leash

[Steve Penz]

Rosario just walked against Tillman so his OBP is up but a few minutes ago it was .273.  How long is the leash? We love having an outfield that catches everything so you need to replace his defense.  Would Zach Granite be an option?  He has less power than Rosario but reports say that the defense is very solid, he could fill in at CF and he is really fast.  How about bringing up Palka and then you play Grossman as the primary LF?  Defense goes down but OBP goes way up.  Is Lamonte Wade out of the question?      

[luckylager]

Rosario will be fine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm far from sold on Rosario as an every day regular but his BABIP is still .030 below his career line. He gets until the break to see how/when/if he normalizes.

[yarnivek1972]

He's been inconsistent. But he has shown life. With all the young guys on the team, it's sometimes easy to forget that he really is one of them at only 25. The first couple weeks were pretty bad. The last week or so also. But in between he was fairly productive. He's never going to be a high obp guy IMO. Not everyone is going to be a star. Some guys are merely good enough to play. That's how I see Rosario. Maybe in a year or so Wade supplants him. I think Granite's ceiling is 4th outfielder. I don't know that either will be better than Rosario, but the reality is that mid market teams often let the so so player go, gambling that they can replace him cheaper. That way they can afford to pay the players they want to build around.

[Bill]

According the Fangraphs, Rosario swings at 58.8% of all pitches he sees, which is tied for the highest percentage in the majors among batters with at least 100 PAs. His O Swing % is 41.7%, tied for 6th highest.

 

He swings too much, and he swings at bad pitches too much.

 

The Twins should give him the take sign alot.

[Willihammer]

I'm getting frustrated with Rosario.  Unless he's making game saving plays on defense that I'm not aware of, they're winning in spite of him, not because of him. .273 OBP on a team with a .334 OBP overall. He needs to step it up soon or give one of the other LH hitting corner bats a shot. God knows we have alternatives.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rosario will be fine.

 

Based on what? 

[DocBauer]

Way, way too early to give up a 25yo athlete like Rosario who can do it all but needs time to develop. He will always be a bit of a bad ball hitter, but some guys just are. He will never be a great OB guy, but will probably normalize above .300 somewhere. He plays great defense, has power, has speed, seems to have solid instincts and is still learning.

 

To me he has the whole season. Granite is a nice looking player but isn't ready yet, IMO. I think Wade could be very good and I'm liking various comparisons to Matt Lawton as a player. He also is not ready.

 

Rosario should get the whole season to show what he can do and what he may become. Inconsistencies from such a talented young player are something you are patient with.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Way, way too early to give up a 25yo athlete like Rosario who can do it all but needs time to develop. He will always be a bit of a bad ball hitter, but some guys just are. He will never be a great OB guy, but will probably normalize above .300 somewhere. He plays great defense, has power, has speed, seems to have solid instincts and is still learning.

To me he has the whole season. Granite is a nice looking player but isn't ready yet, IMO. I think Wade could be very good and I'm liking various comparisons to Matt Lawton as a player. He also is not ready.

Rosario should get the whole season to show what he can do and what he may become. Inconsistencies from such a talented young player are something you are patient with.

 

Is it true he is inconsistent? He has always swung at too many pitches he can't hit, and he has always walked to little, and he's always played good defense. What part is inconsistent year over year?

 

He should be the starter this year, but if I'm the FO, I'm very interested in Wade and Granite for sure, because Eddie has shown not growth in his approach, in year three now.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm getting frustrated with Rosario.  Unless he's making game saving plays on defense that I'm not aware of, they're winning in spite of him, not because of him. .273 OBP on a team with a .334 OBP overall. He needs to step it up soon or give one of the other LH hitting corner bats a shot. God knows we have alternatives.

 

Yeah I'm with you... He's looking more and more like a 4th OF/platoon bat. 

[yarnivek1972]

Is it true he is inconsistent? He has always swung at too many pitches he can't hit, and he has always walked to little, and he's always played good defense. What part is inconsistent year over year?

 

He should be the starter this year, but if I'm the FO, I'm very interested in Wade and Granite for sure, because Eddie has shown not growth in his approach, in year three now.

The approach has been pretty consistent. The results have not been. Pretty much same story with Dozier really, albeit on a higher plane.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The approach has been pretty consistent. The results have not been. Pretty much same story with Dozier really, albeit on a higher plane.

 

The approach plus luck produces the results. If he can't/won't change his approach, you are counting nearly 100% on luck for him to have value compared to other LFers. Counting on luck seems like a bad strategy to me.

[bird]

I'm guessing three things have already happened:

 

1) The coaches, once again, have been making Rosario sit down and go through the video of one AB after another, good and bad. They know his swing % and O%, and so does Rosario.

 

2) The field staff and FO have discussed their current assessments regarding the readiness and projections for Granite and Palka, probably Wade as well, and have concluded that, for the time being, the team is better off with Rosario and Grossman.

 

3) Their patience with Rosario's failure to adjust his approach is waning. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if, longer term, they expect Rosario to be a 4th OF on a championship-caliber team, either here or elsewhere.

[drivlikejehu]

Rosario can't hit MLB pitching. When he first came up, pitchers didn't know how to attack him, and he did OK (mediocre RC+ of 97).

 

His RC+ dropped in 2016 and has fallen further this year. He swings at everything and doesn't make good contact even on strikes. His defensive numbers have been sliding too. 

 

He's a decent enough athlete, but so are a ton of guys. I'm not convinced Rosario is even a 4th outfielder.

[gunnarthor]

I'd like to see him rest more against lefties but Brock is right - he's cut down his k-rate and his babip is below his career averages. It's too early to give up on him and I don't think we have a guy who is ready to replace him anyway.

[Thrylos]

 

Rosario just walked against Tillman so his OBP is up but a few minutes ago it was .273.  How long is the leash? We love having an outfield that catches everything so you need to replace his defense.  Would Zach Granite be an option?  He has less power than Rosario but reports say that the defense is very solid, he could fill in at CF and he is really fast.  How about bringing up Palka and then you play Grossman as the primary LF?  Defense goes down but OBP goes way up.  Is Lamonte Wade out of the question?      

 

Sub "Buxton" for "Rosario" and let us know how do you feel about it? 

 

Fact: Buxton is hitting worse than Rosario at this point; so his leash should be shorter than Rosario's

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd like to see him rest more against lefties but Brock is right - he's cut down his k-rate and his babip is below his career averages. It's too early to give up on him and I don't think we have a guy who is ready to replace him anyway.

 

He cant rest, that's Kepler's job. Sigh.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He cant rest, that's Kepler's job. Sigh.

Heh, they've actually played the same number of games.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Heh, they've actually played the same number of games.

 

Really? Huh.

 

Seems like Kepler has been the platoon partner lately, but that might just be confirmation bias in action. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Really? Huh.

 

Seems like Kepler has been the platoon partner lately, but that might just be confirmation bias in action. 

To be fair, I didn't check for games started, only games played. But I doubt the difference is large either direction.

[yarnivek1972]

The approach plus luck produces the results. If he can't/won't change his approach, you are counting nearly 100% on luck for him to have value compared to other LFers. Counting on luck seems like a bad strategy to me.

I'd say his success is less luck and more basic physical tools. Sure, luck is involved, as with every hitter. But the guy has some physical ability. As a hitter, his success kinda reminds me of Luis Rivas. Did well in his initial call up. But really never seemed willing or able to change his approach and as a result never got better. His physical tools simply allowed him to be successful enough to keep a job until a better option came along. As I indicated before, that likely happens when the Twins feel his productivity can be provided by a minimum salary player.

[JustinCB]

 

Based on what? 

 

smokes too much reefer

[Steve Penz]

 

Sub "Buxton" for "Rosario" and let us know how do you feel about it? 

 

Fact: Buxton is hitting worse than Rosario at this point; so his leash should be shorter than Rosario's

Fair point.  Has Rosario ever shown the plate approach that Buxton has?  Buxton has struggled but I don't feel their histories are the same.  I don't mean to turn this into a conversation about that comparison.  My main thought is about the short leash that has been applied to other players since our new FO took over.  He is only 25 so it worries me to cut bait but the line is out there somewhere.  I am wondering where that is.  We have seen the season Hicks is having.  Patience is important too.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd say his success is less luck and more basic physical tools. Sure, luck is involved, as with every hitter. But the guy has some physical ability. As a hitter, his success kinda reminds me of Luis Rivas. Did well in his initial call up. But really never seemed willing or able to change his approach and as a result never got better. His physical tools simply allowed him to be successful enough to keep a job until a better option came along. As I indicated before, that likely happens when the Twins feel his productivity can be provided by a minimum salary player.

 

everyone's success is based on process, skill, and luck. In Eddie's case, the process is terrible. You can't count on luck, therefore you need to try to figure out if his skill can overcome his approach. That's what I meant to say, but failed.

 

IMO, no way his skill makes up for his process. He's not that skilled, imo. 

 

But yes, he's good enough (as I said in teh first post I made) that he should start until/unless Wade or Granite force their hands. Or next year.

[wsnydes]

 

Based on what? 

or at least define "fine" because our definitions don't appear to be the same.

[Linus]

One of the great things about depth is the competition it breeds. Eddie is sitting because Grossman is playing better. He's going to have to do something about that if he wants to play.

[Eris]

I think one of the aspects of the game that the Twins have improved is taking walks.  This also gives players better pitches to hit and is a reflection of being able to take quality at bats.  Of the regular players only Rosario and Mauer have a decrease in BB%.  The BB% data is from fangraphs.

 

                 2016   2017

Sano           10.9    17.1

Buxton          6.9    10.4

Kepler           9.4    11.4

Rosario         3.4      2.9

Dozier           8.8    11.3

Polanco         6.3     8.3

Grossman      14.1   19.1

Mauer            13.7   9.1

 

It looks like either Rosario has not gotten the message about improve this aspect of the game or is not capable of making the adjustments.  Last year there was a lot a criticism directed at Sano.  He is taking much better at bats and the results have improved substantially.  I suspect that unless Rosario's results improve he will sent down.  A trade seems unlikely because his value is low at this time.

[USAFChief]

I'm far from sold on Rosario as an every day regular but his BABIP is still .030 below his career line. He gets until the break to see how/when/if he normalizes.

If/when it does, I suspect all it will accomplish is get Rosario back to what he's been the past two years...remarkably consistent and not really very good.

 

2015: .267/.289/.459

2016: .269/.295/.421

2017: 254/.273/.388

 

Add 30 pts of babip to his 2017 line and you have Eddie, 2015 and 2016.

 

He's a decent 4th OFer. Not a guy who should have a starting gig on a good team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If/when it does, I suspect all it will accomplish is get Rosario back to what he's been the past two years...remarkably consistent and not really very good.

2015: .267/.289/.459
2016: .269/.295/.421
2017: 254/.273/.388

Add 30 pts of babip to his 2017 line and you have Eddie, 2015 and 2016.

He's a decent 4th OFer. Not a guy who should have a starting gig on a good team.

He's a fringy starter, for sure.

 

But it's not as if the Twins have someone else who profiles significantly better in the OF. And given that Rosario is still only 25 years old, I'm willing to give him more leash. If there was a better option available, I might feel differently about it.

 

Grossman is an option but I don't want him in the field more than once or twice a week, tops.

[drjim]

To be fair, I didn't check for games started, only games played. But I doubt the difference is large either direction.

I predict that barring injury this difference will be 10 games by the end of the year.

 

It's Keplers first full season, they were going to give him a break against lefties early, get his confidence up. He's rolling now.

 

Like most narratives it was exaggerated from the start and will look silly by the end of the year.