Article: Extend Miggy

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand the desire from the Sano camp to hit free agency a) as early as possible, and B} at a prime age, but 6 years puts him at what? 28? That's pretty prime.

Sano turns 24 in two days (May 11).  This is his age-24 season.

 

If he signed a 6 year extension that took effect immediately (so 2017 was year 1), he wouldn't be a FA until his age-30 season.  If it took effect next year, he wouldn't be a FA until his age-31 season.

 

If you added a team option year, that would push it back another year too.

[laloesch]

 

On the "Touch 'em All" podcast  (Basically 30 minutes of Twins content on 1500AM) this topic came up.

 

I ended up yelling at my radio.

 

They did two "who says no" scenarios.

Scenario 1: 10yr/250M

Their contention was that both sides might not be all that interested. Which I don't necessarily disagree with, but one of their reasons for Sano's camp saying no was that it wasn't enough money. (more on this in a minute)

 

Scenario 2: 6yr/100M

Everybody said Sano's camp would definitely say no. Not enough money. This is when I started yelling at my radio, something to the effect of "DO YOU PEOPLE NOT UNDERSTAND HOW THE FIRST 6 YEARS OF SALARY WORKS?!?!?!"

 

Basically, that would be buying out two free agent years for $35M each, as well as guaranteeing the whole contract. AND THAT'S NOT ENOUGH? 

 

I understand the desire from the Sano camp to hit free agency a) as early as possible, and B} at a prime age, but 6 years puts him at what? 28? That's pretty prime.

 

My opinion:

6/70 with a team option that would make it 7/100. Also, I'd keep it pretty flat over the length of the contract. Might as well pay a decent amount now, when we're on the way lower end of our payroll range.

 

2018: 10

2019: 12

2020: 12

2021: 12

2022: 12

2023: 12

 

This allows us future financial flexibility as well as, if we need to, a valuable, low-cost trade asset. 

 

I just don't see the Twins offering Scenario #1 as a first contract.  They are too cheap to do that.

[amjgt]

 

I just don't see the Twins offering Scenario #1 as a first contract.  They are too cheap to do that.

 

I agree, but not because they are cheap, but because it has too much risk. 

 

Right now the Twins are saddled with a 23M/yr below average first baseman that was (when the contract was inked) supposed to be a HOF catcher. The Twins could replace most if not all of Mauer's production internally, with someone who's pre-arbitration. 

 

We'd hate the Twins, in 2023, to be saddled with a $35M "3 outcome" DH who could be replaced or at least mostly replaced by someone making 20% of that. 

 

Do, I think he's going to become a 3-outcome DH? No. But anyone looking at this objectively has to realize that's a possibility. 

Edited May 9, 2017 by amjgt

[beckmt]

I say pay the man.  I would guess that 10/$350 would get it done.  Maybe you could get by for $300.  That would take him to age 34, but I feel anything less would not get it done.  He probably wants to win on a consistent basis and play for a coast team.  If you do not lock him up by the end of 2018, you will only be able to sign him if he does not become a mega superstar.  Less and you are gambling he wants to be here and I do not want to lose him after his age 28 season.

[Vanimal46]

The entire league is trending towards 3 outcomes... Sano isn't an outlier when it comes to his approach at the plate.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The entire league is trending towards 3 outcomes... Sano isn't an outlier when it comes to his approach at the plate.

 

Yeah, I generally think these sorts of things are a bad idea, but I'm on board.  Pay the man.  

[akmanak]

Let us not jump the gun to quickly on Sano. He only has a .255 batting average in the MLB. Even looking at his minor league numbers they really dont jump out at you.

 

His batting average has continued to fall over the last week and his strikeouts are creeping up which is not shocking.

 

IMO I think they simply need to wait until the offseason to see where he is at. He has proven that he is a hands down all star as of yet.

 

How many times does teams need to be screwed over with these 6-8 year contracts? Have we not learned with Mauer?

 

In short I believe it is a simple wait and see approach. If the guy doesnt hit below .280 or so by the end of the season I would say they should consider a 4-5 year contract and for the love of God do not give him a no trade clause.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How many times does teams need to be screwed over with these 6-8 year contracts? Have we not learned with Mauer?

 

The mistake with Mauer was his first contract was too short and/or too late. Sounds like you might be advocating the same mistake with Sano...

[amjgt]

 

How many times does teams need to be screwed over with these 6-8 year contracts? Have we not learned with Mauer?

 

 

Ummmm.... the current count is 1.

 

Past contract should have nothing to do with what is or is not offered to Sano.

Edited May 9, 2017 by amjgt

[amjgt]

 

I say pay the man.  I would guess that 10/$350 would get it done. 

 

C'mon.... he wouldn't even get that much if he became a free agent tomorrow. Why would we give him that with 4 cheap years still to come?

Edited May 9, 2017 by amjgt

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let us not jump the gun to quickly on Sano. He only has a .255 batting average in the MLB. Even looking at his minor league numbers they really dont jump out at you.

His batting average has continued to fall over the last week and his strikeouts are creeping up which is not shocking.

IMO I think they simply need to wait until the offseason to see where he is at. He has proven that he is a hands down all star as of yet.

How many times does teams need to be screwed over with these 6-8 year contracts? Have we not learned with Mauer?

In short I believe it is a simple wait and see approach. If the guy doesnt hit below .280 or so by the end of the season I would say they should consider a 4-5 year contract and for the love of God do not give him a no trade clause.

 

You realize almost no one hits .280 anymore, right?

[70charger]

 

I agree, but not because they are cheap, but because it has too much risk. 

 

Right now the Twins are saddled with a 23M/yr below average first baseman that was (when the contract was inked) supposed to be a HOF catcher. The Twins could replace most if not all of Mauer's production internally, with someone who's pre-arbitration. 

 

We'd hate the Twins, in 2023, to be saddled with a $35M "3 outcome" DH who could be replaced or at least mostly replaced by someone making 20% of that. 

 

Do, I think he's going to become a 3-outcome DH? No. But anyone looking at this objectively has to realize that's a possibility. 

 

I certainly hope Mauer doesn't make them gun shy. Catastrophic brain injuries are rare. They're even rarer when you're not a catcher.

 

Besides, the things that made Mauer a great catcher don't translate to first base as well as the things that make Sano a good ...well whatever it is he plays. Sano's power bat earns him his bread, not an odd combo of good bat and good defense at catcher that gets significantly devalued when the catcher can't play catcher.

[S.]

 

You realize almost no one hits .280 anymore, right?

Ah yes, those illusive players who hit close to .300 with 30+ home runs. I believe they are sometimes known as Mike Trouts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I certainly hope Mauer doesn't make them gun shy. Catastrophic brain injuries are rare. They're even rarer when you're not a catcher.

 

Besides, the things that made Mauer a great catcher don't translate to first base as well as the things that make Sano a good ...well whatever it is he plays. Sano's power bat earns him his bread, not an odd combo of good bat and good defense at catcher that gets significantly devalued when the catcher can't play catcher.

Yeah, Mauer's contract shouldn't make them gun shy with Sano. They're very different players. Mauer's bat played well at any position but not at the level we expect from Sano. A large portion of Joe's value came from the fact that .300 average, .400 OBP, .850 OPS catchers are unicorns.

[Vanimal46]

Now that we've come to the conclusion that Mauer and Sano are completely different players..........

If people are hesitant about giving a long term contract to a 24/25 year old, I'm not sure if there's any example of a player to sign long term. 

[70charger]

 

Now that we've come to the conclusion that Mauer and Sano are completely different players..........

If people are hesitant about giving a long term contract to a 24/25 year old, I'm not sure if there's any example of a player to sign long term. 

 

Especially one who doesn't seem to be an injury risk and whose skillset doesn't tend to drop off a cliff with some age.

[Vanimal46]

 

I wouldn't count on it.

ESPN's pains are from overpaying for MNF and NCAAFB.

Baseball revenues will be fine, if some people start cutting the cord, mlb.tv subs will go up. MLB has been on top of this for a long time.

 

No doubt. MLB is leading the way for streaming options with their games. NHL being a close second.

NFL and NBA are light years behind in the streaming game, and the two biggest investments that ESPN has. 

[nicksaviking]

Mauer's contract was negotiated by the guy 2 GMs ago, I can't see that causing our new guy to be gun shy. These aren't the same men.

 

And his contract was negotiated at that time because the guy 3 GMs ago (also 1 GM ago) WAS gun shy. Mauer should have been locked up at minimum 1 year earlier than he did and plenty of forward thinking GM's would have done it much, much earlier say about where Sano is at in his career now. If there's any lesson to be learned, it's the longer you wait the more you pay. Or get nothing at all.

[drjim]

Mauer's contract was negotiated by the guy 2 GMs ago, I can't see that causing our new guy to be gun shy. These aren't the same men.

 

And his contract was negotiated at that time because the guy 3 GMs ago (also 1 GM ago) WAS gun shy. Mauer should have been locked up at minimum 1 year earlier than he did and plenty of forward thinking GM's would have done it much, much earlier say about where Sano is at in his career now. If there's any lesson to be learned, it's the longer you wait the more you pay. Or get nothing at all.

Mauer was locked up at the right time originally. It just should have been for longer than 4 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mauer was locked up at the right time originally. It just should have been for longer than 4 years.

They did wait until after he had won a batting title. That probably gave Mauer enough leverage to force a shorter deal.

[USAFChief]

 

Mauer was locked up at the right time originally. It just should have been for longer than 4 years.

That's the point...he wasn't "locked up."

[akmanak]

After looking at Sano's stats regarding how many games he has played in both minor and major, I just dont think you can sign him to any megadeal without first seeing if he can actually play a full season and be able to justify the kind of longevity and price some of you are talking about.

 

His sample size in the majors is to small and I say give him this season and possibly next to determine the size of the contract.

[Mr. Brooks]

After looking at Sano's stats regarding how many games he has played in both minor and major, I just dont think you can sign him to any megadeal without first seeing if he can actually play a full season and be able to justify the kind of longevity and price some of you are talking about.

 

His sample size in the majors is to small and I say give him this season and possibly next to determine the size of the contract.

If you wait until after next year then Sano is already into his ARB years and probably wouldn't have as much incentive to sign a long term extension.

The incentive to the player now is that they haven't really gotten paid yet (Aside from bonus), only making roughly 500k per year.

I think the window for a long term deal is the next 10 months. You either get it done in that frame or probably not at all.

[beckmt]

 

C'mon.... he wouldn't even get that much if he became a free agent tomorrow. Why would we give him that with 4 cheap years still to come?

Have you noticed the comment that he would like to be the guy to break $50 million a year.  Wait another year and any deal chance except an overpay may be off the table.

[akmanak]

If you wait until after next year then Sano is already into his ARB years and probably wouldn't have as much incentive to sign a long term extension.

The incentive to the player now is that they haven't really gotten paid yet (Aside from bonus), only making roughly 500k per year.

I think the window for a long term deal is the next 10 months. You either get it done in that frame or probably not at all.

Good point.

[DaveW]

The time to sign him I am afraid was this last off season. It's a shame we wasted a full cheap year of him by running him out to RF 100 times.

 

I tend to think that he may not even want to stick around on this club, I imagine that the comments about his weight, going home to the DR etc don't sit very well with him. His star power would be massive as well in a major market.

 

If he were a Yankee, Red Sox, Dodger or Cub he would be one of the faces of baseball.

[laloesch]

 

I say pay the man.  I would guess that 10/$350 would get it done.  Maybe you could get by for $300.  That would take him to age 34, but I feel anything less would not get it done.  He probably wants to win on a consistent basis and play for a coast team.  If you do not lock him up by the end of 2018, you will only be able to sign him if he does not become a mega superstar.  Less and you are gambling he wants to be here and I do not want to lose him after his age 28 season.

 

No way he gets 10/$350 million as a first contract.

[laloesch]

 

The time to sign him I am afraid was this last off season. It's a shame we wasted a full cheap year of him by running him out to RF 100 times.

I tend to think that he may not even want to stick around on this club, I imagine that the comments about his weight, going home to the DR etc don't sit very well with him. His star power would be massive as well in a major market.

If he were a Yankee, Red Sox, Dodger or Cub he would be one of the faces of baseball.

 

He would get comments about his weight on any ball club.  Staying in shape is part of the game in any sport.

[laloesch]

 

I certainly hope Mauer doesn't make them gun shy. Catastrophic brain injuries are rare. They're even rarer when you're not a catcher.

 

Besides, the things that made Mauer a great catcher don't translate to first base as well as the things that make Sano a good ...well whatever it is he plays. Sano's power bat earns him his bread, not an odd combo of good bat and good defense at catcher that gets significantly devalued when the catcher can't play catcher.

 

Catastrophic?  Comeon...  Catastrophic would be something like a brain aneurysm, stroke or TBI.  But a concussion is mild compared to many brain injuries.

[DaveW]

 

He would get comments about his weight on any ball club.  Staying in shape is part of the game in any sport.

Yes, but most teams would keep it in house instead of having the press do their dirty work AND making public statements about it.