Twins option Mejia to AAA, put Haley on DL

[Mike Sixel]

 

Slow down the Santiago train here. I am one of his biggest supporters but I am EXTREMELY hesitant about offering any kind of multiple years to him. He was a great option last offseason because he was on a one year arb contract and if things go bad then nothing significant is affected. Multiple years is really risky imo.

 

I would certainly try to trade him at the deadline. I say no to extensions to 'mediocre' pitchers that somehow get it done. He is solid but not somebody I want pitching for the next 3-4 seasons for the Twins.

 

While I generally agree, do you think they will sign a better FA?

[kab21]

 

While I generally agree, do you think they will sign a better FA?

I am in general against signing average at best 30 year old FA SP'ers. Santiago or otherwise.

 

The Twins could screw him and give him a QO (nobody is likely giving up a draft pick for him). If he pitches 4.00ish ERA over 180 innings this year he has to be worth 12+M/yr so overpaying towards 17-18M for a single season with no long term commitment isn't terrible. Steady the ship and try to find something better in the meantime.

[USAFChief]

There's a strong argument to be made to see if he'd accept a 3 yr deal, IMO.

 

Where are the Twins going to get 7 better starters than him over the next 3 years.  Enough with "rebuild."  Let's put players on the field who can win.  Santiago is a major league starter.  Not a star, but good enough to be in the rotation of a winning team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins could screw him and give him a QO (nobody is likely giving up a draft pick for him). If he pitches 4.00ish ERA over 180 innings this year he has to be worth 12+M/yr so overpaying towards 17-18M for a single season with no long term commitment isn't terrible. Steady the ship and try to find something better in the meantime.

Under the new CBA, this wouldn't screw him that much.  Clubs will no longer have to forfeit their top pick to sign free agents with a QO attached.  His old club doesn't automatically get a comp pick after the first round either.

 

I think Santiago would accept a QO in a heartbeat, that would be a bad idea.  You could probably sign him for 2 years for not much more than that.

[kab21]

 

There's a strong argument to be made to see if he'd accept a 3 yr deal, IMO.

 

Where are the Twins going to get 7 better starters than him over the next 3 years.  Enough with "rebuild."  Let's put players on the field who can win.  Santiago is a major league starter.  Not a star, but good enough to be in the rotation of a winning team.

He is a major league starter now but the margin for error is low since his best case through age 30-33 is likely 4.00 ERA. If anything goes wrong then he is useless as a major leaguer.

If it was me then I spend double and shoot for a better pitcher if I am spending significant money anyway. 

But overpaying for one year on a QO minimizes the long term risk.

[kab21]

 

Under the new CBA, this wouldn't screw him that much.  Clubs will no longer have to forfeit their top pick to sign free agents with a QO attached.  His old club doesn't automatically get a comp pick after the first round either.

 

I think Santiago would accept a QO in a heartbeat, that would be a bad idea.  You could probably sign him for 2 years for not much more than that.

I like the change (for baseball) since it did screw the player but I am not sure that he accepts the QO (18M? maybe). If he puts up a 4.00 ERA then there has to be a team that will pay him $12-14M/yr for 3-4 years. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like the change (for baseball) since it did screw the player but I am not sure that he accepts the QO (18M? maybe). If he puts up a 4.00 ERA then there has to be a team that will pay him $12-14M/yr for 3-4 years. 

 

Hellickson accepted the qualifying offer last winter.

 

The previous winter, Gallardo turned down a QO and only got 2/22.  Marco Estrada re-signed for 2/26 to avoid a QO situation.

 

A couple years older, and no QO attached, but Jason Hammel signed for 2/20 with the Cubs a few years back, and then 2/16 with the Royals this winter.

 

It's hard to predict, but given that Hector Santiago, coming off perhaps the best month of his career last July, was only "worth" Nolasco and Meyer in trade, I suspect he is going to fall into the lower tier of FA starters.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The problem is that your definition of mediocre in this thread alone has ranged from Santiago to Nolasco and would presumably include Hughes and Gibson also. The range (60-70% of MLB pitchers) is basically anybody that isn't above average (your previous definition). I would consider Santiago average instead of mediocre. And average (a shot at a 4.00 ERA) sounds awesome right now.

I would strongly encourage you to check out a bell curve and take a look at the distributions. That should answer your questions regarding percentile ranges. 

 

Again, the definition of mediocre does not have ONE THING to do with any points I had previously made. It has absolutely no bearing on the discussion, so if your goal was to distract by arguing semantics then congratulations.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Let's try to get off of the track of putting together a definition of a subjective term...

 

/mod note

[KirbyDome89]

 

Mediocre has a mostly negative connotation in today's society so I see the point other posters are making... but I use mediocre all the time in a non-pejorative way. The definition of the word is "average".

 

I think Santiago is pretty mediocre. And I don't mean that as an insult, as I very much wanted him and still want him on the team.

The definition of the word is "average"

I had no idea saying that would be so "controversial."

 

If its an honest misunderstanding thats fine. Its the reason I pressed for them to look up the meaning of the word. It took me 10 seconds to copy, paste, and post that definition so it certainly was accessible. The fact that there is apparently still an argument at this point stems from a willingness to misconstrue the meaning of mediocre. I think its pretty obvious I'm annoyed by this.  

 

Yeah, I clearly think he is mediocre as well. It isn't a compliment and it isn't an insult, the descriptor is fairly self explanatory. 

[drjim]

I don't like this extension talk. If (when) they are out of it, trade him for what you can get. If he can maintain this for a couple more months they might even get an OK piece or two.

[kab21]

 

I would strongly encourage you to check out a bell curve and take a look at the distributions. That should answer your questions regarding percentile ranges. 

 

Again, the definition of mediocre does not have ONE THING to do with any points I had previously made. It has absolutely no bearing on the discussion, so if your goal was to distract by arguing semantics then congratulations.  

I completely understand what a bell curve is. The problem is that you have seemingly included everyone except the above average and elite pitchers (a small part) in the same definition.

 

At various times you have said that more mediocre veterans weren't needed so I can only assume that Hughes and Gibson are included. You called Nolasco mediocre. And you even said if they wanted to add veterans they could have picked up one and stashed him in the minors. Is that still mediocre?

But the word mediocre isn't important. The important part is that you continually lump Santiago in with pitchers that most would describe as awful or were likely to be awful (projecting Hughes for example after injury). And this belief that the Twins have enough pitchers of Santiago's mediocre-ness. Even if Mays didn't get injured there were so many question marks surrounding the Twins rotation that somebody of Santiago's track record should have been welcomed. At this point I wish we had another. Perhaps Hughes will survive and make an unexpected comeback from his injury to be average (and better than expected). So far the results are not great but he isn't been Gibson awful yet.

[Mike Sixel]

Santiago is the equivalent of the veteran 4th OF I wanted signed, except he actually needs to play also....someone that can hold a place, be ok when needed, but isn't so expensive or so old that he's blocking someone better (if that person exists). Given Hughes, Mays, and Mejia were on the roster, having someone like Santiago around made sense to me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Even if Mays didn't get injured there were so many question marks surrounding the Twins rotation that somebody of Santiago's track record should have been welcomed. At this point I wish we had another. 

I wish the Twins had two more Santiagos. They'd be a decent, maybe even good, team at that point.

 

And, prospects be damned, who doesn't want to watch a good team?

[DaveW]

I wish the Twins had two more Santiagos. They'd be a decent, maybe even good, team at that point.

 

And, prospects be damned, who doesn't want to watch a good team?

A rotation of: Santana, Berrios, Santiago, Hu, Hughes would look pretty solid right now IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A rotation of: Santana, Berrios, Santiago, Hu, Hughes would look pretty solid right now IMO.

I'd rather see Mejia than Hu. While the Jepsen trade may have been a mistake - I'm not really ready to say that yet - Adalberto looks to be the better pitcher. Mejia seemed to really step it up in the high minors last season while Hu has scuffled in AAA in a very SSS. Hu didn't exactly light up the world in AA last season, either.

[kab21]

 

I'd rather see Mejia than Hu. While the Jepsen trade may have been a mistake - I'm not really ready to say that yet - Adalberto looks to be the better pitcher. Mejia seemed to really step it up in the high minors last season while Hu has scuffled in AAA in a very SSS. Hu didn't exactly light up the world in AA last season, either.

I won't lose any sleep over a prospect that put up a 6.75 K rate in AA last year. It would be nice to have for depth in this season (every $%$# one) where they have so little depth though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I won't lose any sleep over a prospect that put up a 6.75 K rate in AA last year. It would be nice to have for depth in this season (every $%$# one) where they have so little depth though.

Yes. Yes, it would. The Twins looked like they might have sufficient depth going into the season but with the Gonsalves and Stewart situations, that already-less-than-stellar depth disappeared in a hurry.

[Mike Sixel]

The issue is, you don't deal a possible SP for a mediocre RP in a season where you are overly lucky, and have that be YOUR ONLY MOVE. They went 1/3 in, as usual, and now they could use Hu, at a minimum for depth. That is the part of the TR led FO I will miss least, not committing fully to a direction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The issue is, you don't deal a possible SP for a mediocre RP in a season where you are overly lucky, and have that be YOUR ONLY MOVE. They went 1/3 in, as usual, and now they could use Hu, at a minimum for depth. That is the part of the TR led FO I will miss least, not committing fully to a direction.

I didn't mind the move, what irked the hell out of me is that it happened on July 31st.

 

The 2015 Twins were a lucky team with one glaring weak spot: the bullpen.

 

And not a damned thing was done about it before deadline day. Had Ryan picked up a competent reliever at the end of June, I'd wager there's a better than even chance the Twins play in the Wildcard Game that season.

 

It's my opinion that you shore up a weakness or two on a lucky team in hopes that luck continues but you don't go all-in on such a flawed baseball team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't mind the move, what irked the hell out of me is that it happened on July 31st.

 

The 2015 Twins were a lucky team with one glaring weak spot: the bullpen.

 

And not a damned thing was done about it before deadline day. Had Ryan picked up a competent reliever at the end of June, I'd wager there's a better than even chance the Twins play in the Wildcard Game that season.

 

It's my opinion that you shore up a weakness or two on a lucky team in hopes that luck continues but you don't go all-in on such a flawed baseball team.

 

Yes, I forgot that I was annoyed by the timing also, thanks for the reminder. I really won't miss the lack of action from the TR FO.....

[drjim]

 

I didn't mind the move, what irked the hell out of me is that it happened on July 31st.

 

The 2015 Twins were a lucky team with one glaring weak spot: the bullpen.

 

And not a damned thing was done about it before deadline day. Had Ryan picked up a competent reliever at the end of June, I'd wager there's a better than even chance the Twins play in the Wildcard Game that season.

 

It's my opinion that you shore up a weakness or two on a lucky team in hopes that luck continues but you don't go all-in on such a flawed baseball team.

 

That was the problem, such a half move and so late.

[howieramone2]

 

The issue is, you don't deal a possible SP for a mediocre RP in a season where you are overly lucky, and have that be YOUR ONLY MOVE. They went 1/3 in, as usual, and now they could use Hu, at a minimum for depth. That is the part of the TR led FO I will miss least, not committing fully to a direction.

They weren't overly lucky, and Jepsen was a proven vet. Hu is still pie-in-the-sky. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I completely understand what a bell curve is. The problem is that you have seemingly included everyone except the above average and elite pitchers (a small part) in the same definition.

 

At various times you have said that more mediocre veterans weren't needed so I can only assume that Hughes and Gibson are included. You called Nolasco mediocre. And you even said if they wanted to add veterans they could have picked up one and stashed him in the minors. Is that still mediocre?

But the word mediocre isn't important. The important part is that you continually lump Santiago in with pitchers that most would describe as awful or were likely to be awful (projecting Hughes for example after injury). And this belief that the Twins have enough pitchers of Santiago's mediocre-ness. Even if Mays didn't get injured there were so many question marks surrounding the Twins rotation that somebody of Santiago's track record should have been welcomed. At this point I wish we had another. Perhaps Hughes will survive and make an unexpected comeback from his injury to be average (and better than expected). So far the results are not great but he isn't been Gibson awful yet.

If you do then Idk why you're so shocked by the 60-70% falling within the average distribution. 

 

So first it was an issue with defining mediocrity. Now that that is finally settled the problem is how many players fit the definition?  

 

Are you actually reading my posts or are you just trying to argue? Honestly. If you read them at all you would see I wasn't in favor of the signing because he was guaranteed a rotation spot. If they signed a guy to a minor league contract or a low cost MLB deal they were less likely to hold onto that mediocrity. I don't know how to make that more clear for you. I wasn't' high on Gibson or Hughes either but they were rotation locks as Santiago would be upon signing. There absolutely were a lot of question marks surrounding the pitching and Santiago was one of them so no, it wasn't a warm welcome on my end.  

 

You were higher on Santiago than I was. The End.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Slow down the Santiago train here. I am one of his biggest supporters but I am EXTREMELY hesitant about offering any kind of multiple years to him. He was a great option last offseason because he was on a one year arb contract and if things go bad then nothing significant is affected. Multiple years is really risky imo.

 

I would certainly try to trade him at the deadline. I say no to extensions to 'mediocre' pitchers that somehow get it done. He is solid but not somebody I want pitching for the next 3-4 seasons for the Twins.

i would be very supportive of a trade of Santiago at the deadline or a 1-2 year extension. This team has 1-2 players in house ready to replace 4 pitchers, meaning Santana is a lock and pretty much no one else is. You can't turn your rotation and minor league depth over like that.

[Darius]

This nice run by Santiago isn't sustainable if you look at some of the advanced numbers over his career.

 

Granted, his performance (in terms of ERA) has defied his advanced stats for much of his career. But, I still feel like a rebuilding, generally dirt cheap team spending $20+ million in Santiago will do more harm than good (because that's cash that they won't sink into a larger contract for a better starter, or a couple competent relievers, or a better Swiss Army knife than Santana).

 

Also, at some point, they just have to turn Berrios and Mejia loose in the MLB and let them take their lumps. If there is an open spot in the rotation beyond those two going forward, I'd rather see them target a higher upside FA for once and spend a little of the Scrooge mcduck swimming pool full of cash.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This nice run by Santiago isn't sustainable if you look at some of the advanced numbers over his career.

 

Granted, his performance (in terms of ERA) has defied his advanced stats for much of his career. But, I still feel like a rebuilding, generally dirt cheap team spending $20+ million in Santiago will do more harm than good (because that's cash that they won't sink into a larger contract for a better starter, or a couple competent relievers, or a better Swiss Army knife than Santana).

 

Also, at some point, they just have to turn Berrios and Mejia loose in the MLB and let them take their lumps. If there is an open spot in the rotation beyond those two going forward, I'd rather see them target a higher upside FA for once and spend a little of the Scrooge mcduck swimming pool full of cash.

hes outperformed his FIP by a full run since 2012. Sure he's due for a bad stretch as he's never before below 3.5 ERA but what better options do the Twins have?

 

Throwing money at FAs doesn't make them better players. What impending FAs should the Twins go after this offseason? How much Scrooge McDuck money should be thrown around? Should they sign two or three Vaults full of money? How do they develop the next Berrios/Mejia? I'm not certain there's any above high A right now.

 

Do I love Santiago? No he's league average... but that's better than Hughes or Gibson. Realistically I don't see more than one free agent pitcher from outside the org signed this offseason and they need 9-10 close to ml ready pitchers available throughout the season

[diehardtwinsfan]

There are actually going to be some good pitchers on the FA market this year... if there was time to go out and get one, 2018 would be it...  Whether the Pohlads will, who knows. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There are actually going to be some good pitchers on the FA market this year... if there was time to go out and get one, 2018 would be it... Whether the Pohlads will, who knows.

who? Last off season the indication was many of the impending 2018 free agents would be extended, but I lost track of the details

 

Do we have indications of whether they will actually become free agents?

[Linus]

Buster Olney wrote a column about how many pitchers are potentially available at the trade deadline. I think we are going to be disappointed in what we might get for Erv or Santiago.