Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

 

 

I have no idea what happened but the one thing that seems very clear... JDL was the guy the Dodgers targeted for trade bait and I can't help but ask why him? As long as he has options... he is not blocked... He's incredible insurance in that case.  

 

 

I'm not sure how many more times that it can be explained.  The Dodgers aren't dealing Kershaw, Hill, or Urias.  Who has value to deal?  Is it Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood, Stewart, Stripling, Maeda? or Jose Deleon?  What would dangling any of the other 6 guys get you?  I think Wood has some value.  Stewart also has some value but neither were going to get Kinsler, Dozier, or Forsythe.  Maeda?  Everyone knows that he signed a deal full of incentives because his elbow is a ticking time bomb.

[TheLeviathan]

If Dozier starts out hot, we can Frank Viola him midseason, if not, then that's baseball.

I disagree with most of your post but I get your position. But man....this line? That's just really poor reasoning. "This is either great for us or we fall victim to dumb bad luck" is a poor way to analyze the success or failure of this.

[HawkeyeDodger]

Here's what I heard from a couple different LA reporters over the last month.  The Dodgers and Twins agreed upon Deleon as the top piece in the deal.  The two teams exchanged lists of names that they wanted in the deal to finish the deal with second and 3rd pieces.  The names didn't match up.  I'm sure the Twins had guys like Alvarez and Buehler on the list and the Dodgers had other players.  

 

If you read Friedman's quotes today, he said they got clarity about a week ago what it would take to acquire any of the 2 or 3 players that they liked at second base which is about the time a stalemate was reported.  The price for Forsythe was what they found the most palatable for a deal.  

 

I have no doubt that more than JDL was offered for Dozier.  What the "junk" was, hopefully we find out some day.  Or if Dave's source was correct, hopefully that leaks out as well.  

[T_J]

I just think that if the Dodger were actually offering JDL plus Alvarez, they could have gotten a much better 2nd baseman. I like Dozier a whole bunch and all, but he might be about the 7th-10th best 2nd baseman in baseball. Add in the age of the guys better than he is.... 

 

Side note... what do you think the Rays think about Polanco.... 

[PseudoSABR]

 

 

I'm sure I'm not the only one who has appreciated your contribution over the past couple of months--so, please, stick around. You've provided some much-needed perspective, and earnestly and even-handed, at that.  Cheers. 

[drivlikejehu]

No one trades 6 years of a #2-3 starter for 2 years of Logan Forsythe. Least of all the Dodgers. It would never, ever happen if they really believe that is who De Leon is. 

 

If De Leon turns into a reliable #2-3 starter, I will write a lengthy ode to TheLeviathan's foresight and forever renounce sharing my opinions on prospects, with the Twins or any other club.

[operation mindcrime]

Ugh... The doldrums of Winter! I'm going through some serious game thread withdrawal. \m/

[glunn]

 

Moderator warning: As is always the case around issues where there are strong and passionate disagreements, it's difficult to not make/take things personally ... but please try. First off, this isn't a thread about Dave's source. He brought us some information, we discussed it a LOT a LOT a LOT, along with other rumors out there, and it didn't work out. So let's not make it about Dave and his credibility, because that isn't the case. Discuss and disagree all you want, but don't shoot the messenger, no matter what your feelings are about said messenger. Second, when you disagree with people, leave out the snottiness and the smug 'I'm right' attitudes. That's a good way to fire up the making it/taking it personal, and it doesn't further anyone's good points of discussion. Third, as frustrated as we are about the state of the Twins, it's just a game. Be angry if you want. Question the decisions all you want. Make points about what you think should have been done/not done. But do so respectfully of one another, the FO, players here or there, on-field managers, etc. I've been generous about not handing out warning points, but I'm going to continue to be quick-handed at hiding posts and comments that lead to nothing but squabbling.

 

And the same goes for the other Dozier thread.

 

Thank you for your consideration.

Moderator note -- Please do not post in this thread unless you read ChiTown's post above and are willing to work within our guidelines.

[shs_59]

Logan Forsythe is 85- 95 % as good of a player Dozier is.

plus what draws him nearly as worthy is that he is very flexible, he can play 3B. 2B. and 1B all well.

 

I"m Loving we SAID NO to a straight up De Leon for Dozier Swap  (even if a C or 2 C prospects were included)

 

 

We simply wanted :   Brock Stewart ,  and De Leon   OR   Will Calhoun and De Leon

 

the dodgers said , No.

 

Their loss not ours.

[shs_59]

 

Here's what I heard from a couple different LA reporters over the last month.  The Dodgers and Twins agreed upon Deleon as the top piece in the deal.  The two teams exchanged lists of names that they wanted in the deal to finish the deal with second and 3rd pieces.  The names didn't match up.  I'm sure the Twins had guys like Alvarez and Buehler on the list and the Dodgers had other players.  

 

If you read Friedman's quotes today, he said they got clarity about a week ago what it would take to acquire any of the 2 or 3 players that they liked at second base which is about the time a stalemate was reported.  The price for Forsythe was what they found the most palatable for a deal.  

 

I have no doubt that more than JDL was offered for Dozier.  What the "junk" was, hopefully we find out some day.  Or if Dave's source was correct, hopefully that leaks out as well.  

 

 

Some of That is absolutely not true, all Twins wanted all along, after Buehler ect. were rebuffed. (essentially)  was Brock Stewart or Willie Cahloun as the 2nd and (basically) final piece in the deal .

 

The Dodgers CLEARLY were not willing to that deal  per Heyman and several other sources.

 

L.A. overvalued  their own C+ &  B- talents ..... CLEARLY  unless of course you actually think Brock Stewart is a B+ level talent, b/c  IMO simply he's not.

[Doomtints]

 

So do I.  That's how deep their farm is.

 

They only think the others are "better" due to timing. De Leon should be going into the bigs now. The Dodgers are smart to not block him particularly when they have other good players who will be ready at more appropriate times.

[Vanimal46]

 

Some of That is absolutely not true, all Twins wanted all along, after Buehler ect. were rebuffed. (essentially)  was Brock Stewart or Willie Cahloun as the 2nd and (basically) final piece in the deal .

 

The Dodgers CLEARLY were not willing to that deal  per Heyman and several other sources.

 

L.A. overvalued  their own C+ &  B- talents ..... CLEARLY  unless of course you actually think Brock Stewart is a B+ level talent, b/c  IMO simply he's not.

Do you have a source, or is this your own opinion? I tend to believe HawkeyeDodger more than this since he typed what he heard from LA reporters. 

[Doomtints]

 

If Dozier starts out hot, we can Frank Viola him midseason, if not, then that's baseball.

 

Couple of things.

 

The Twins would have kept Viola if they had any way of making Viola happy. Viola demanded a trade and proceeded to become a cancer in the clubhouse until he was traded. Many Twins players spoke about this after it happened. They liked Viola but they were all happy to see him go because of how he acted at the end. Viola was not traded because he was a top asset and the teams had other, glaring holes that they needed to fill to avoid losing 100 games.

 

As for "Then that's baseball..." Well, the Twins had a chance to out-maneuver a "that's the breaks, man, what can you do?" scenario and failed. Now their backs will be to the wall and they will be bargaining from a poor position IF Dozier does well and IF there are any suitors. You know, the familiar Twins story we were hoping left with Ryan.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Somebody should keep track of what JDL does in 2017 and keep us posted.

 

and 2018-2023......

[Mike Sixel]

 

This. This would be the new regime's first 'big' move and such a desperate act would cast an outsized shadow over their future dealings.

 

Do you have evidence this is true? That making one trade for 75 cents on the dollar, means you never do better later?

 

is it really better to keep Dozier, and not make the playoffs for the next two years, and have nothing to show? Are you really sure that's better? 

[nicksaviking]

 

Do you have evidence this is true? That making one trade for 75 cents on the dollar, means you never do better later?

 

is it really better to keep Dozier, and not make the playoffs for the next two years, and have nothing to show? Are you really sure that's better? 

 

Why do you think we'll have Dozier for the next two years? This won't be the only opportunity to move him.

 

I think this big build up left many people disappointed, but this is only Act 1 of the Dozier trade saga.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why do you think we'll have Dozier for the next two years? This won't be the only opportunity to move him.

 

I think this big build up left many people disappointed, but this is only Act 1 of the Dozier trade saga.

 

Because they won't get offered more than De Leon, a top 30 prospect in the game. Because there aren't many teams that need a 2B, as we just saw. Because not acting happens more often than acting. Because I'm a MN sports' fan, and I've seen this play out badly over and over (Adrian Peterson anyone?).

[nicksaviking]

 

Because they won't get offered more than De Leon, a top 30 prospect in the game. Because there aren't many teams that need a 2B, as we just saw. Because not acting happens more often than acting. Because I'm a MN sports' fan, and I've seen this play out badly over and over (Adrian Peterson anyone?).

 

You say that like it's a certainty, they might get a better offer, we don't know. And KLaw has De Leon at 73. He's a soft tossing righty with a change and a below average slider. If he's lucky he'll be Rich Harden but with less velocity, maybe that would play in a ballpark like Dodger Stadium (or Oakland) but the Rays can have him.

 

He put up Anthony Slama numbers in the minors and everyone's eyes popped but there was a reason he was drafted in the 24th round, that stuff isn't going to play at the majors. I'm not trading Brian Dozier for a 92 MPH heater and nobody else. I agree with posters who said it looked like the Dodgers weren't shopping for a 2B so much as they were shopping De Leon. They know he's Cinderella.

[drjim]

Law just had De Leon as #73. 

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6178

 

Maybe there is a reason the Dodgers were looking to move him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You say that like it's a certainty, they might get a better offer, we don't know. And KLaw has De Leon at 73. He's a soft tossing righty with a change and a below average slider. If he's lucky he'll be Rich Harden but with less velocity, maybe that would play in a ballpark like Dodger Stadium (or Oakland) but the Rays can have him.

 

He put up Anthony Slama numbers in the minors and everyone's eyes popped but there was a reason he was drafted in the 24th round, that stuff isn't going to play at the majors. I'm not trading Brian Dozier for a 92 MPH heater and nobody else.

 

You asked why I thought that....I replied why I thought that. I don't know if any of that is true or not, but that's what I think. I thought that was clear, if not, apologies.

 

I like KLAW a lot, but others are much higher on De Leon than him. 

[drjim]

 

You say that like it's a certainty, they might get a better offer, we don't know. And KLaw has De Leon at 73. He's a soft tossing righty with a change and a below average slider. If he's lucky he'll be Rich Harden but with less velocity, maybe that would play in a ballpark like Dodger Stadium (or Oakland) but the Rays can have him.

 

He put up Anthony Slama numbers in the minors and everyone's eyes popped but there was a reason he was drafted in the 24th round, that stuff isn't going to play at the majors. I'm not trading Brian Dozier for a 92 MPH heater and nobody else. I agree with posters who said it looked like the Dodgers weren't shopping for a 2B so much as they were shopping De Leon. They know he's Cinderella.

 

He's obviously better than Slama, but that is an interesting comp in that the AAA numbers might show something that is not going to be there in the bigs.

[DaveW]

Law just had De Leon as #73.

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6178

 

Maybe there is a reason the Dodgers were looking to move him.

Yeah, this is the thing, JDL is much closer to a 3/4 then a #2 IMO.

 

JDL for Forsythe is an absolute steal for the LAD, TB seemed to panic for some reason. Also I'm not super high on Forsythe anyways, I think he is a 2.5 WAR player moving fwd

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Do you have a source, or is this your own opinion? I tend to believe HawkeyeDodger more than this since he typed what he heard from LA reporters. 

It's just his opinion.  He's posted it before.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, this is the thing, JDL is much closer to a 3/4 then a #2 IMO.

JDL for Forsythe is an absolute steal for the LAD, TB seemed to panic for some reason. Also I'm not super high on Forsythe anyways, I think he is a 2.5 WAR player moving fwd

That sounds like a contradiction?  If you're not super high on Forsythe, he's probably worth a 3/4 with any chance to be a #2.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What do we really know from reports about the Twins asking price here?

 

Most reports had them asking for two of De Leon, Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buehler.

 

Morosi's report (which I incorrectly attributed to Passan earlier) had them asking for "two additional prospects" (presumably not from the group above) in addition to De Leon.

 

This leaves a clear blind spot of De Leon plus one additional prospect.  With as lukewarm as the Dodgers discussions stayed, and zero reported offers coming out of shopping Dozier to other teams, I suspect the Twins weren't as receptive to offers of this type as many of us believe they should have been.

[drivlikejehu]

A solid change-up does wonders against minor leaguers . . . it's not nearly as common a pitch compared to the breaking balls that hitters have seen since their early teen years. The change is also more effective than breaking balls in the higher-altitude PCL parks, so while De Leon got a lot of credit for his run prevention in the PCL, he's also a good fit for the league in that sense. 

 

In the Majors, a solid change-up by itself isn't enough. Right now it's not clear what else De Leon brings to the table . . . mediocre fastball, inconsistent command, sub-par breaking pitch, no proven durability. If he was in the Twins organization no one outside prospect circles would know who he is.

[gunnarthor]

De Leon seems to be a bit of a polarizing prospect.  Sickels is the high man on him but mlbpipeline probably still has him in the 30-40 range.  Fangraphs and Klaw seem lower on him.  

 

So it's probably worth thinking that the Twins and Dodgers may have had very different valuations of De Leon as a centerpiece.  If the Twins thought he was in the 75 range - somewhere close to Gonsalves - it makes a lot of sense to expect a better package.

[gunnarthor]

Out of curiosity, which Dodger prospects does Klaw have in the 60-100 range?

[terrydactyls]

It was offered along with one of the non Lux guys drafted last year. Twins thought they had more leverage then they had and got BURNED, not a good start. 95 losses but hey, at least Dozier will hit 50 HR! Maybe they can flip him at deadline

Do you have any actual proof of this offer or is it just "he said/she said"? I have not seen anything other than random speculation that a "package" of players was on the table.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Out of curiosity, which Dodger prospects does Klaw have in the 60-100 range?

 

De Leon....73 "solid 4th starter"

 

that's it, everyone else is higher or not in the top 100.