DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is interesting because its more about perception than reality.  This is pretty much the definition of a sunk cost.  That cost does not go away regardless of what they do with him.  There is no way to recover it and he cost the same as any other prospect going forward.   I doubt they consider the acquisition cost at this point.

 

Agreed, his value is as the number x prospect at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You seem to be undervaluing Dozier.  He has the 15th most WAR in baseball over the last 3 seasons ahead of names like Freeman, Cespedes, Cano, Bautista, etc...; even if you think his 2016 HR binge is a fluke he is still a top 30 player.

Not sure that's quite right either.  WAR is a counting stat, and Dozier has the 3rd most PA in MLB over the last 3 seasons.  If I take the top 100 WAR guys from 2014-2016 at Fangraphs, and sort them by WAR per PA, Dozier ranks 40th.  His age doesn't help him either, when you consider there are young guys like Addison Russell and Christian Yelich just behind him in this ranking.

[jimmer]

If the Twins are holding up a trade offer that has DeLeon and Alvarez/Bellinger already there, and it falls through, IMO, that's a failure.  I have been saying all along that getting Bellinger or Alvarez in this trade would be a major coup in a Dozier trade.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure that's quite right either.  WAR is a counting stat, and Dozier has the 3rd most PA in MLB over the last 3 seasons.  If I take the top 100 WAR guys from 2014-2016 at Fangraphs, and sort them by WAR per PA, Dozier ranks 40th.  His age doesn't help him either, when you consider there are young guys like Addison Russell and Christian Yelich just behind him in this ranking.

 

True, but if you don't play....then you aren't as valuable. Counting stats do matter, imo, in terms of the value that 1 player provides....No ONE STAT shows how good or not Dozier is or isn't. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is interesting because its more about perception than reality.  This is pretty much the definition of a sunk cost.  That cost does not go away regardless of what they do with him.  There is no way to recover it and he cost the same as any other prospect going forward.   I doubt they consider the acquisition cost at this point.

I think you are mis-interpreting -- obviously the money is already spent.  But it can serve as a proxy for value -- it's a data point suggesting that Alvarez was worth ~$32 mil just a year ago.  And that has probably increased a bit now that he's had a healthy and successful transition so far; maybe even further because prospects like him are harder to acquire now with the hard cap on international spending.

[Willihammer]

 

Not sure that's quite right either.  WAR is a counting stat, and Dozier has the 3rd most PA in MLB over the last 3 seasons.  If I take the top 100 WAR guys from 2014-2016 at Fangraphs, and sort them by WAR per PA, Dozier ranks 40th.  His age doesn't help him either, when you consider there are young guys like Addison Russell and Christian Yelich just behind him in this ranking.

Fair point but on the other hand, he got all those PAs by keeping himself in great shape and not having any nagging injuries, which must have some value too.

[Mr. Brooks]

Look, at the end if the day, this is ALL speculation at this point, even with informed sources and a fit for both clubs. But since we ARE talking speculation and theory here...along with quality information from various sources...then let's put it all together and say JDL and Alvarez are indeed the focal point. If the Dodgers would include Stewart or Buehler or whoever as a 3rd piece if the Twins would take McCarthy if their hands then this would be a MUST for the Twins.

 

The payroll should be under 109M fir the next couple of seasons yes? Even with signing Castro Plouffe and Suzuki are gone. Santiago COULD be released if necessary but figures to be fine by '18. Santana could yet be moved, Perkins is off the books after this year, and Mayer after '18.

 

There is a lot if payroll if the books and still to fall away. The rebuilding Twins could absolutely afford to eat a 20M deal to net them the prospects they want/need.

Santiago has been tendered.

I don't believe the Twins can release him and get out of his salary at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's not pretend that Forsythe (if you can convince the Rays to trade him) or Solarte (how would he handle 2B fulltime?) are in the same discussion as Dozier. Braun is a better hitter than Dozier but he is an absolute butcher in the field.

Why wouldn't Forsythe be in the same discussion?  If you get to cherry pick Dozier's last 3 years, I don't see what's the harm in cherry picking the last 2 years and seeing that Forsythe is virtually equal in performance/value to Dozier over that time frame.  Not saying Forsythe is actually equal or better, but he can absolutely be part of the discussion.

 

Ryan Braun is also not an "absolute butcher" in left field; you are probably thinking of his early career work at 3B.  Metrics have him right around average for his career work in LF, without any definitive recent trend downward yet.  Considering that the Dodgers managed league-average production at 2B last year, and significantly below league average production in LF, it's not far-fetched to think they might choose to invest more in a LF upgrade than 2B.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair point but on the other hand, he got all those PAs by keeping himself in great shape and not having any nagging injuries, which must have some value too.

Sure, he gets points for durability.  I'm not claiming I'd rank him 40th overall. Just saying it's a lot more complicated than looking at raw WAR totals for 2014-2016.

[gSutter]

If the Twins are holding up a trade offer that has DeLeon and Alvarez/Bellinger already there, and it falls through, IMO, that's a failure.  I have been saying all along that getting Bellinger or Alvarez in this trade would be a major coup in a Dozier trade.

I couldn't agree more! If there is an offer from the Dodgers that contains De Leon and Alverez already on the table the Twins need to take it before it's off the table.

 

I do believe that any Dodgers/Dozier trade needs to include at least 2 of their top pitching prospects

De Leon, Alverez, Buehler, Stewart

I also like what I'm reading about SS Ronny Brito

[jimmer]

Dodgers were 21st in WAR at 2B and it came from Utley (2.0 WAR) who is gone (as of now), right?

[jimmer]

 

I couldn't agree more! If there is an offer from the Dodgers that contains De Leon and Alverez already on the table the Twins need to take it before it's off the table.

I do believe that any Dodgers/Dozier trade needs to include at least 2 of their top pitching prospects
De Leon, Alverez, Buehler, Stewart
I also like what I'm reading about SS Ronny Brito

I like Buehler a lot, myself.  I wouldn't mind a Buehler, Stewart and Sheffield trade myself.

[darin617]

 

He suggested Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech as the potential package for Sale. At the July trade deadline.

 

But by saying he nailed it would mean he had all pieces of the trade right. If he would have had the other 2 players named as well at the time he then nailed the trade. By putting a teams best hitter and a one of their top pitchers as what it would take would take no skill it's just guessing.

[jimmer]

 

But by saying he nailed it would mean he had all pieces of the trade right. If he would have had the other 2 players named as well at the time he then nailed the trade. By putting a teams best hitter and a one of their top pitchers as what it would take would take no skill it's just guessing.

ok.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Aaron Gleeman with a few updates on Twitter today.

 

7:12 am

Asked around on this again. Twins and Dodgers still talking. Sense is they're haggling over what comes with De Leon.

 

7:22 am

While hardly a sure-fire ace, Jose De Leon is the type of pitching prospect the Twins wanted to target. Good stuff, good numbers, MLB-ready.

 

7:30 am

De Leon would definitely be the Twins' top prospect, but after graduations the Twins' farm system isn't very strong.

 

[nicksaviking]

Forsythe appears to be a lesser 2B defensively, but I'm not sure if the difference is a huge deal. Offensively Dozier looks pretty superior though over the past three years, even if only using the past two years.

 

I wonder what Freidman's feelings about dealing with his former team would be. Surely there would be some added incentive not to "lose" that trade.

[nicksaviking]

 

Aaron Gleeman with a few updates on Twitter today.

 

De Leon would definitely be the Twins' top prospect, but after graduations the Twins' farm system isn't very strong.

 

Well, we'll just have to wait until June 10th.

[laloesch]

 

Aaron Gleeman with a few updates on Twitter today.

 

7:12 am

Asked around on this again. Twins and Dodgers still talking. Sense is they're haggling over what comes with De Leon.

 

7:22 am

While hardly a sure-fire ace, Jose De Leon is the type of pitching prospect the Twins wanted to target. Good stuff, good numbers, MLB-ready.

 

7:30 am

De Leon would definitely be the Twins' top prospect, but after graduations the Twins' farm system isn't very strong.

 

So basically Gleeman has no news.  

[gunnarthor]

 

So basically Gleeman has no news.  

Nah, but he managed to take a swipe at the Twins anyway.

[jimmer]

 

Well, we'll just have to wait until June 10th.

Fangraphs prospect guy said this about our farm system:

 

'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect.'

 

Which is sad considering we've drafted pretty high lately.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dodgers were 21st in WAR at 2B and it came from Utley (2.0 WAR) who is gone (as of now), right?

Technically 21st in bWAR at 2B, but within a rounding error (0.2) of 16th and league average production:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none

 

Similar story by fWAR, 17th:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=37&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

 

Utley intends to play and hasn't signed elsewhere, so I assume he's still an option for the Dodgers.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nah, but he managed to take a swipe at the Twins anyway.

 

How so?

[nicksaviking]

 

Fangraphs prospect guy said this about our farm system:

 

'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect.'

 

Well only because Urias and De Leon will have graduated.

[gunnarthor]

Has anyone heard any rumors of any other teams being in on Dozier?  It would be nice if the Twins could create a bidding war but with the Angels out, I don't know of any other team.

[jimmer]

 

Technically 21st in bWAR at 2B, but within a rounding error (0.2) of 16th and league average production:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none

 

Similar story by fWAR, 17th:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=37&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

 

Utley intends to play and hasn't signed elsewhere, so I assume he's still an option for the Dodgers.

That's why I said he was gone as of now, but he was the only guy providing value there, was my point. They have to do something at 2B, no matter what.  They won't roll with current options and since they are going for it, Dozier is still their best shot. IMO, as long as this FO isn't crazy about what Dozier is worth, the trade happens

[jimmer]

 

Well only because Urias and De Leon will have graduated.

huh?

[GP830]

Is it at all possible at this point that there is a 3rd team involved? 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Is it at all possible at this point that there is a 3rd team involved? 

Man, I hope not.

 

Too much pretending already.

[Willihammer]

 

Has anyone heard any rumors of any other teams being in on Dozier?  It would be nice if the Twins could create a bidding war but with the Angels out, I don't know of any other team.

There were dubious claims earlier that the Yankees might also be interested but lately the smoke seems to be about the Dodgers only.

[Willihammer]

I hope the Twins aren't afraid to walk away. The market sucks right now.