DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

We're still in a "pre-trade" world, and what Dozier will have to be paid, and more importantly when, will affect the likelihood of a trade and the quality of the return.

 

If the Twins are really trying to push the return beyond two very good prospects, I'm not sure the Dodgers will agree.  I imagine Dozier has a lower projection than either Eaton or Sale, and he's controlled for a shorter time -- yet if Dave's source is correct, we're essentially holding out until we can get an equal return as those guys.

 

I don't think the Twins are holding out because they feel like they would LOSE the trade if they get less than the White Sox received for their players. I think the Twins would make a trade of Dozier, or anyone, if they found equal value coming back for that player.

 

Truth is, all of us fans read scouting reports about prospects in other systems, but don't have any idea what the future holds for any of them. The Twins have people who are paid to study all of their players, and look at other team's players, and come up with a value system to see where they can maximize value.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With an adjusted payroll of $187M+ I'm pretty sure that's not an issue the Dodgers even think about.

Read the context of my post, please, rather than responding to one clause in one sentence.  Specifically, the immediately following clause of "More importantly, WHEN he will have to be paid"

 

Dozier is only controlled for 2 more years.  He's closer to a rental than he is to a long-term asset like Eaton.  Every team thinks about that when acquiring a player.

[d-mac]

 

It's way too much for Dozier.  I've run it by some Dodgers fans and no one buys it or should I say no one would be happy about it.  The Dodgers paid $16 million to sign Alvarez.  After one minor league season at rookie and low A level where he excelled, I have a hard time believing he is the second piece for a ..250 hitter. No offense to Dozier.  He had a great season.  If the Twins got offered Deleon and Stewart, I would jump at it if I was the Twins GM.  Now the guy who broke the Turner and Jansen signings last night has sources that we can't doubt.  Chris Carello broke all of it last evening long before MLBTR and all of the talking heads got a hold of it. 

 

The Dodgers have some roster shuffling to do in order to make room for JT and KJ.  They only have one spot open right now.  Of course a trade for Dozier that includes at least 2 guys on the 40 man roster would fix that.

 

A .250 hitter? Bro, it's 2016. You did not just reference his batting average. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

DaveW, any update? It's strange to go 4 whole hours in this thread without someone updating it.

 

Thanks!

[darin617]

 

That is a relatively low price for a major league outfielder who produces at an average to above average offense and an average defense.  Would not touch him, because of the clubhouse issues, but still if Dodgers want to move that contract to upgrade prospects, could see taking a flyer on it.

 

11 home runs last 2 seasons and you want to call that average? If you throw a 2 year $17.5M offer at Rajai Davis you would get him to sign. I would love to have him play left field next season for the Twins. He would hit 10-15 hr's and steal 30-40 bases. That would be a great addition to a young team.

[darin617]

I just hope the Twins don't back down and keep their demands high. The Dodgers desperately need to get a right handed bat in that line up. Also, I could not believe it when I heard it on MLB network the Giants blew 30 saves last year and they added a very efficient closer in Mark Melancon to shore up the closer role. To be honest LA needs more than just adding Dozier to try to keep up with the Giants.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I just hope the Twins don't back down and keep their demands high. The Dodgers desperately need to get a right handed bat in that line up. Also, I could not believe it when I heard it on MLB network the Giants blew 30 saves last year and they added a very efficient closer in Mark Melancon to shore up the closer role. To be honest LA needs more than just adding Dozier to try to keep up with the Giants.

It does have to be a deal that works for both sides, which is good

[laloesch]

 

It does have to be a deal that works for both sides, which is good

 

My opinion is that it's not happening.  Dodgers have made their final offer (according to Dave) and the Twins FO does not feel inclined to deal Dozier based on the current return.  That's not to say it won't happen because anything is possible, but as it currently stands highly unlikely.  

 

I believe they weren't "wowed" by the Dodgers trade offer nor were they able to convince them to give up that third or fourth prospect to seal the deal.  Sounds like dead in it's tracks if you ask me.  If there is no news by the end of the week you can almost book it that this deal is dead.

 

Time to move on and get ready for spring training.      

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

With an average of 5 WAR over the last 3 years, you are talking a well above average major league player, if not a star.  If he was a pitcher the price would be much higher.  If you look at the trades made this winter, you have to give up decent assets if not overpay to get a player like Dozier.  Offer from Dodgers is close to fair, I feel it may be a bit low and that could be the holdup.  All De Leon projects is to be maybe another Santana, maybe a little better.  Twins need at least one solid prospect that has #1 or #2 stuff to make this deal.

Deleon's upside projects from a 2-3.  More likely a 2 in a small market.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Santiago really hasn't shown much to keep him around, other than racking up innings.  I think we can to better with less expense.  Save the $8M and put it into development. 

The Brewers claimed Puig, but a deal could't get worked out in time.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

A .250 hitter? Bro, it's 2016. You did not just reference his batting average. 

I also listed .OBP and OPS.  Sorry, i didn't list more advanced sabremetrics.  You'll have to excuse me.  I'm in a sling post-labrum surgery.  Simply stating the very issues that I'm sure the Dodgers and Twins are debating.  Like I said, it isn't a slight on Dozier's season.  The Dodgers concerns will we weighed against a cheap deal for two  years and impressive power season in 2016.  Do, people still use bro or is that as antiquated as batting avg?

[laloesch]

 

I would say that the last week the only thing on the Dodgers sites is that they are still interested in Dozier and that the Twins like Stewart.  The guy who broke the Turner and Jansen signings before all of the baseball talking heads also stated that players like Holland and Dozier were on the back burner until those two deals were finalized.  He has multiple sources within the Dodgers and stated that he has no new info the last two days.  Ken Rosenthal even congratulated him yesterday for breaking the news.

 

Yes, but if you take Dave's source at his word (again I'm not picking on Dave), a deal was imminent within 24 hours and that was last week.  Sorry, I just don't buy it.  To me that screams impasse or shelved deal, because the two side can't agree to agree to a deal if you know what i mean.   

[HawkeyeDodger]

I've been reading the debate on Puig.  Here's the deal with him.  It isn't hustle.  He actually hustles more than anyone not named Chase Utley.  It isn't locker room stuff,  It's is preparing like a big leaguer.  He doesn't watch enough film.   He wasn't taking stretching properly serious enough.  He wasn't prepared to play when he wasn't starting.  The Dodgers got tired of him pulling a hammy all of the time and not getting anything going.  Lastly, he's too bulky and can't catch up with a good fastball so they've asked him to become more lean.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I've been reading the debate on Puig.  Here's the deal with him.  It isn't hustle.  He actually hustles more than anyone not named Chase Utley.  It isn't locker room stuff,  It's is preparing like a big leaguer.  He doesn't watch enough film.   He wasn't taking stretching properly serious enough.  He wasn't prepared to play when he wasn't starting.  The Dodgers got tired of him pulling a hammy all of the time and not getting anything going.  Lastly, he's too bulky and can't catch up with a good fastball so they've asked him to become more lean.

How was Puig after he came from he demotion? Was there a coach or coaches that he worked with better than others? And I know I read somewhere in this thread that he and De Leon are close now, maybe because of the demotion. Is that true?

[HawkeyeDodger]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Dodgers have swing and miss guys like Pederson and Grandal in the lineup already.  I don't think most will doubt that the Dodgers would be better against lefties with Dozier, but having two other guys high K guys in the lineup is something to consider.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

How was Puig after he came from he demotion? Was there a coach or coaches that he worked with better than others? And I know I read somewhere in this thread that he and De Leon are close now, maybe because of the demotion. Is that true?

He is close with Deleon.  He did everything they asked of him when he was sent down and when he returned.  Can he maintain that for 162 games is the million dollar question?  I will say that he chased less balls out of the strike zone when he came back up.  Each year since his rookie year he has been better about hitting the cutoff man and honestly he played GG level defense most of the time out there.  He does need to get leaner and he does need to shorten up.  Most Dodgers fans weren't happy to see Reddick getting most of the AB's in the postseason against the Cubs.   Deleon isn't his only friend either.  Sometimes the media makes it sound like he's hated in the clubhouse.  He was just at Jansen's wedding with Turner and SVS.  Maturity and consistent dedication to the little things is what's needed.  He may just be a .280-.285 hitter who hits 15-20 HRs a year and plays stellar defense and not the guy who took the game by storm.  He's never going to be a great base stealer because he can't read pitcher very well.  The base running has been incrementally better but there is head scratching moments like when he was bunted over to 3rd last year and he froze and didn't run.  Later in the game he scored from 1st on a single in the gap.  So, you take the good with bad on the bases. Having said that, I'm not sure that I see him as a fit in Minnesota though. And yes, I used batting average again.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Yes, but if you take Dave's source at his word (again I'm not picking on Dave), a deal was imminent within 24 hours and that was last week.  Sorry, I just don't buy it.  To me that screams impasse or shelved deal, because the two side can't agree to agree to a deal if you know what i mean.   

People were saying the same thing about Chris Camello on Sunday night.  I don't know Dave well enough to doubt his integrity.  I'm just a guest here and was curious to hear from Twins fans.

[goulik]

Sounds like the deal is alive but the Dodgers may be playing hardball with their offer and the Twins may be trying to get just a little more than the Dodgers are willing to give. That's my "reading into" the rumors moment.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-dodgers-twins.html

[kab21]

 

He is close with Deleon.  He did everything they asked of him when he was sent down and when he returned.  Can he maintain that for 162 games is the million dollar question?  I will say that he chased less balls out of the strike zone when he came back up.  Each year since his rookie year he has been better about hitting the cutoff man and honestly he played GG level defense most of the time out there.  He does need to get leaner and he does need to shorten up.  Most Dodgers fans weren't happy to see Reddick getting most of the AB's in the postseason against the Cubs.   Deleon isn't his only friend either.  Sometimes the media makes it sound like he's hated in the clubhouse.  He was just at Jansen's wedding with Turner and SVS.  Maturity and consistent dedication to the little things is what's needed.  He may just be a .280-.285 hitter who hits 15-20 HRs a year and plays stellar defense and not the guy who took the game by storm.  He's never going to be a great base stealer because he can't read pitcher very well.  The base running has been incrementally better but there is head scratching moments like when he was bunted over to 3rd last year and he froze and didn't run.  Later in the game he scored from 1st on a single in the gap.  So, you take the good with bad on the bases. Having said that, I'm not sure that I see him as a fit in Minnesota though. And yes, I used batting average again.

If he is just a .280 hitter with 15 HR's and good defense then he is an above average player. That is an excellent value for 9M/yr and as a 3rd/4th piece. He needs to mature as a player but this is a buy low time unless the Dodgers still expect a lot for him.

[DaveW]

The delay is annoying, but there isn't a hard ticking clock on this anyways. Dodgers obviously have been busy the last 48 hours as well.

 

No major updates: deal is still on table, no "deadline" has been placed.

[DaveW]

I wish I had more news though. I get the feeling that my buddy/source is holding something back, apparently this thread has been spoken of by at least one of the two front offices involved....

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Sounds like the deal is alive but the Dodgers may be playing hardball with their offer and the Twins may be trying to get just a little more than the Dodgers are willing to give. That's my "reading into" the rumors moment.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brian-dozier-trade-rumors-dodgers-twins.html

Having read this it makes me wonder if that final offer that Dave mentioned was from the Twins and not the Dodgers.  Like I said, I have no reason to doubt Dave's integrity, but if the Dodgers are worried about moving Deleon as the first piece then I have a hard time thinking it was the Dodgers who said Deleon and Alvarez + AAAA player is the final offer.  

 

Turner's deal is done now so the Dodgers can move on to other things.  I'm sure the Dodgers have and will continue to check in on McCutchen if they can rid themselves of an OF.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Hawkeye; I am curious what you think of De Leon. He is a highly thought of prospect, no doubt. That said, he threw under 90 innings this past year and a career high 114 in 2015. If he is still on the dodgers next year, would he really be ready to pitch 140 or more innings?

[twins_89]

One more thought on Dozier's value. Looking at WAR, he was more productive over the last three years than any free agent available this off-season (Dozier had a better 3-year WAR than Cespedes, Bautista, Turner, Encarnacion, or Fowler).

 

In addition, Dozier's 3-year production topped big name position players like Freeman, McCutcheon, Cano, Heyward, Carpenter, Longoria, Stanton, Pedroia, Lucroy and Tulowitzki. 

 

Just something to think about when trying to determine Dozier's trade value.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Hawkeye; I am curious what you think of De Leon. He is a highly thought of prospect, no doubt. That said, he threw under 90 innings this past year and a career high 114 in 2015. If he is still on the dodgers next year, would he really be ready to pitch 140 or more innings?

Yes.  He wouldn't have been on much of an innings limit this past year had he not sprained an ankle coming out of ST.  He missed at least the first month of the season.  He stayed back at extended spring training while he got his ankle healthy.  The Dodgers had asked him to work on his body and conditioning.  I mentioned that he has a girlfriend who plays tennis so he started working out with her and the Dodgers felt that he actually lost too much weight and it took a tick or two off his fastball so they were trying to put weight back at him in AZ too.  Without the injury, he would have been up before Urias and Stewart as well as some of the junk pitchers they picked up like Bud Norris.  All of us Dodgers fans would have like to have seen more of him last year.  

 

While watching his minor league progress it seemed like most damage against him came in the 1st inning if teams got to him.  He definitely has big league stuff, but he might be susceptible to the long ball.  He gave up some majestic shots in Sept. when he was off.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0600466327521468352-4

There's been some chatter

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yes.  He wouldn't have been on much of an innings limit this past year had he not sprained an ankle coming out of ST.  He missed at least the first month of the season.  He stayed back at extended spring training while he got his ankle healthy.  The Dodgers had asked him to work on his body and conditioning.  I mentioned that he has a girlfriend who plays tennis so he started working out with her and the Dodgers felt that he actually lost too much weight and it took a tick or two off his fastball so they were trying to put weight back at him in AZ too.  Without the injury, he would have been up before Urias and Stewart as well as some of the junk pitchers they picked up like Bud Norris.  All of us Dodgers fans would have like to have seen more of him last year.  

 

While watching his minor league progress it seemed like most damage against him came in the 1st inning if teams got to him.  He definitely has big league stuff, but he might be susceptible to the long ball.  He gave up some majestic shots in Sept. when he was off.

Thanks!

[jimmer]

 

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0600466327521468352-4

There's been some chatter

exactly.

[Badsmerf]

Well we know the twins front office is aware of twins daily, so it isn't crazy to think in the last week they've seen this thread. I mean, where else are they supposed to get updates from? ****, no joking anymore....

 

I don't think they would care too much. At this point all we know is a little bit about Mack Brown.

[ScrapTheNickname]

In 1398 Johannes Gutenberg, German inventor of the printing press, was born. And later came the Internet, and still later came Twins Daily.