Everyday Shortstop

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

The Twins starting SS for 2017 (and beyond) will (and should be) Jorge Polanco.

 

Let the kid play a full year at SS instead of being jerked around from position to position, and then we can talk about his defense...

(Same regarding Sano's defense @ 3B btw...)

 

I agree – unless the Twins trade Dozier. If they trade Dozier, I would put Escobar at SS and bring up Vielma  as the reserve infielder. That would get Vielma acclimated to the big leagues, without tons of pressure. Then you could make him FT SS in 2019, if his bat holds up.

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Or until Gordon comes up.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't understand the love for Vielma.  He has not hit well at any level and his fielding looks sub-par.  He is speedy, sure, but I don't see any way he blossoms into a player who can survive in the majors for more than about a year and a half.  

 

 

I've never seen anything but glowing reviews about his glove, but I also don't understand the love for Vielma.

 

Sure, we all want a stud glove at SS in theory but then when we're staring at Pedro Florimon written on the opening day lineup two years in a row no one's happy.

[Vanimal46]

 

I've never seen anything but glowing reviews about his glove, but I also don't understand the love for Vielma.

 

Sure, we all want a stud glove at SS in theory but then when we're staring at Pedro Florimon written on the opening day lineup two years in a row no one's happy.

Fun fact: Pedro Florimon's career OPS in the minors is .681 - MLB OPS is .558. 

Vielma's career OPS is .636. 

Vielma better be the next Ozzie Smith to make up for that lack of hitting. 

[Doomtints]

 

The scouting reports weren't really wrong about Hicks, though. He scuffled badly when he came into the league but he scuffled at everything so it's not as if defense was some isolated issue with the guy.

 

The past two years, he has been an above average defender in most (if not all) metrics.

 

I disagree.  If we all had a dollar for every time someone described Hicks as a "toolsy" player who was going to break out at any moment, we'd be all be retired and hunting with Bud Grant right now.  

[TheLeviathan]

I wouldn't ignore scouting reports, but I'd take them with a huge grain of salt.  They are, afterall, a massive operation in obscuring a small sample as representative enough to draw conclusions.

 

(In most cases.  I grant that some guys do actually see them play many times to give their opinion.  But the vast majority do not)

 

I also put minimal stock in defensive numbers or scouting reports on minor leaguers.  I don't think they are very useful at all unlike hitting and pitching statistics.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree.  If we all had a dollar for every time someone described Hicks as a "toolsy" player who was going to break out at any moment, we'd be all be retired and hunting with Bud Grant right now.  

A prospect failing does not mean the scouting reports are wrong. Some guys advance when they face MLB pitching, some don't.

 

There are thousands of prospects more highly regarded than Hicks who didn't pan out. It's the nature of projecting young players and where they will land.

 

Never mind that Hicks was never that highly regarded as a prospect. He had many nice write-ups after his first full post-draft season but was in the bottom half of top 100 prospect lists after that point (if he made the list at all).

 

If a guy is the 75th best prospect in baseball, that means he's the third best prospect on any given team's prospect list given equal distribution of prospects.

 

That's good but hardly awesome.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Never mind that Hicks was never that highly regarded as a prospect. He had many nice write-ups after his first full post-draft season but was in the bottom half of top 100 prospect lists after that point (if he made the list at all).

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar

 

Top 50 in Baseball America for three straight years.  Top 50 in 3 years of a 5 year span with Baseball Prospectus (and 51st in one of thee other years).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar

 

Top 50 in Baseball America for three straight years.  Top 50 in 3 years of a 4 year span with Baseball Prospectus (and 51st in the other year).

Which is why I mentioned he had a bunch of good write-ups after his first full post-draft season.

 

After that, it was a mixed bag. By the time he was "ready" for MLB, his stock had dropped a fair amount.

 

BA didn't even rank him in 2012 and put him at 72 the year he was promoted.

[jimmer]

 

Which is why I mentioned he had a bunch of good write-ups after his first full post-draft season.

 

After that, it was a mixed bag. By the time he was "ready" for MLB, his stock had dropped a fair amount.

 

BA didn't even rank him in 2012 and put him at 72 the year he was promoted.

your post read differently, like he was only in the top half of the top 100 one year, but okay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

your post read differently, but okay.

Fair enough. Change "Hicks was never that highly regarded as a prospect" to "Hicks hadn't been that highly regarded as a prospect for three seasons before his MLB promotion".

 

By the time he graduated to MLB, scouts were a mixed bag on Aaron Hicks. The fact that a few major publications didn't even rank him in 2012 tell you how much his luster had faded.

[jimmer]

 

Fair enough. Change "Hicks was never that highly regarded as a prospect" to "Hicks hadn't been that highly regarded as a prospect for three seasons before his MLB promotion".

 

By the time he graduated to MLB, scouts were a mixed bag on Aaron Hicks. The fact that a few major publications didn't even rank him in 2012 tell you how much his luster had faded.

I am not trying to nit pick.  It's not a big deal.  Wasn't sure if you remembered his rankings so I posted the link and some info

[HitInAPinch]

My assumption is Escobar is the starting shortstop next year.  He's been move around a lot over his Twins career;  7 different positions each over the past 3 years.  At 27, I think he deserves a full time shot.  From what I saw of Polanco, he'd make a better 2nd baseman.

[nicksaviking]

I am not trying to nit pick.  It's not a big deal.  Wasn't sure if you remembered his rankings so I posted the link and some info

I think that would be similar to if Kohl Stewart had a quasi-renaissance and found himself with a 99-ish ranking this time next year. We would all remember what his old ceiling was but we wouldn't have such lofty expectations when he actually got called up.

[Doomtints]

 

A prospect failing does not mean the scouting reports are wrong. Some guys advance when they face MLB pitching, some don't.

 

 

That's good but hardly awesome.

 

I said nothing about scouting reports being wrong or right.  I'm talking about people who base their entire opinion of players on BLOGS written by someone who read scouting reports.

Either read the original source (the actual scouting reports) or go by the stats.  Blogs are not a primary source, the other two are.

And if someone is going on about "5 tools" then be particularly skeptical.  If the tool to smack the hell out of the ball with the bat is absent, none of the other tools will matter.  

[Doomtints]

 

Never mind that Hicks was never that highly regarded as a prospect. He had many nice write-ups after his first full post-draft season but was in the bottom half of top 100 prospect lists after that point (if he made the list at all).

 

 

Right, but I'm not talking about scouting reports.  I'm talking about the online Twins fans who were reading blogs and journalists, followed by echoing what they were reading that Hicks was about to become an all star at any second.  People who read blogs tend to say they got their info from scouting reports and scouts, but they have never actually read any such material.  An oft-cited writer *again* wrote that Hicks was going to have a breakout year in 2016.  

 

Hicks is a great defender and the Twins missed his defense when he got bounced between the majors and minors.  But he can't hit and the chances of that changing were always slim.  

I bet that if I start nosing around, I'll find a certain writer who has written that Vielma has a bright future and that's where all of this is coming from.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

A couple of years ago everyone was all excited about Danny Santana?  Who is to say that Polanco will continue to do the things we saw for about a month last year??  I think it is always very risky to trade something that you know for sure for something that you don't know for sure.  Dozier has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years or so.  I think the Twins would be getting ahead of themselves if they feel like they can just plug someone in for him.  Now a top flight starter, I'd do that, but not many teams are going to do that for the Twins.  Top flight starters are just too valuable.

 

"everyone"? I don't think so. 

 

Polanco has hit at every level, DanSan was bad/mediocre at every level. No contest, in terms of their likelihood of succeeding.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Vielma's fielding is not sub par. It's widely considered the best in the organization and among the best in all of the minor leagues.

 

That said, I don't think he'll be able to hit enough. Some think he can, we'll see.

i don't think he'll ever be a "good major league hitter" but with his defensive reputation I think he could hit well enough to pass. At least he'll be good enough for a bench role. It's good to have pinch running and defensive replacement options too.

[Mr. Brooks]

i don't think he'll ever be a "good major league hitter" but with his defensive reputation I think he could hit well enough to pass. At least he'll be good enough for a bench role. It's good to have pinch running and defensive replacement options too.

I think he'll struggle to clear a .600 OPS. I don't think that's good enough, even with elite defense.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think he'll struggle to clear a .600 OPS. I don't think that's good enough, even with elite defense.

.600 prolly won't start, but a bit over buys a bench role. I think .650 is feasible and buys a starting role with elite defense.

[Mr. Brooks]

.600 prolly won't start, but a bit over buys a bench role. I think .650 is feasible and buys a starting role with elite defense.

I'm always skeptical that guys with zero power can carry their milb OBP over to the majors. MLB pitchers throw strikes when they have nothing to fear.

I'd be happily surprised if he can OPS .640 or better. I could live with that if his defense is elite.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd be shocked if a powerless player could directly transfer his minor league OPS to the big leagues.  That's not how it works.

[Doomtints]

 

.600 prolly won't start, but a bit over buys a bench role. I think .650 is feasible and buys a starting role with elite defense.

 

He needs to be able to play multiple positions for this plan to work.  Nick Punto hit at this level (in a good year) but he played defense at every position on the field other than catcher.  That's pretty much what would need to happen for your idea to be feasible. 

[Mr. Brooks]

He needs to be able to play multiple positions for this plan to work. Nick Punto hit at this level (in a good year) but he played defense at every position on the field other than catcher. That's pretty much what would need to happen for your idea to be feasible.

Punto played SS, 2B, and 3B.

He has 52 innings in his career in the OF, and 6 at 1B.

I'm quite sure that anyone who can play elite defense at SS can also play 2B and 3B.