Article about Twins failure to develop players

[goulik]

I will freely admit that last year I said patience, wait one more year. But I also said there is a process on judging the GM and if this year was bad the GM should be held accountable. I have not changed my opinion on the process of judging a GM, We have a GM that ran out his string and shown an inability to get us a winning team mostly because of poor decisions regarding pitching and manager.

 

On the other hand, I think he did a nice job of collecting talent for a lineup that we will enjoy for years to come. I believe that Sano and Buxton will become the studs we dream of. Buxton will be more of a defensive wizard CF with above average offence and speed vs Sanos lesser defense and huge home run/RBI numbers for the next decade. I believe in them 100%. With Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, and the kids still to come, our bats will be fine.

 

Our next GM has to address starting Pitching, catcher, and MLB coaches/manager. I still think that our pitching has a good chance of looking better with some changes in coaching and catcher... Just an eye test judgement partially based on stats from pitchers that got worse when they arrived and got better when they left.

 

All this to say, I am not ashamed that I preached patience. Its baseball not football after all. But this year firmly established what needed changing. When we finally hire the new guys, I will preach patience with the new guy as he tries to fix whats wrong. It might not happen over night.

[Mike Sixel]

Polanco, Kepler, and Sano were brought in before Ryan came back....

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yeah I'd expect the kid who'd been playing professionally since 16 to be better than the college kid. Are you saying that professional baseball is easier than college? What percentage chance do you believe Sano has of reaching or surpassing Bryant's current level of production?

I believe the point being made was that Sano started playing professionally as a teenager, so it makes sense that his minor league numbers aren't as gaudy as Bryant's stats. He faced a much steeper learning curve entering professional baseball. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Seems to me that the definition of patience implies that you don't have a timeline on it.  Like it or not, if patience was the answer last year, it's likely still the answer this year, at least with guys like Buxton, Berrios, Sano, etc. (though I'm really not understanding the lack of such with Sano.  He's already pretty good, comparing him to Bryant, whom we could not have possibly drafted seems rather odd).

 

Now that said,  that doesn't mean that we keep the same coaches, same front office, etc.  I think it's time for some of that to change.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be patient with some of these kids.

[Platoon]

No worries, I don't feel like you're picking on me.  I agree with you completely actually.  I didn't want them to hold a fire sale, still don't now.  I think it would have been a mistake to go all in, yet I think more could have been done without mortgaging the farm (even though I would have disagreed with the intent).  I think it was the frustration of the prior offseason and continuation of more of the same - half-assing things in hopes that something good happens.  Neither rebuilding nor trying to contend.  In essence, they were just treading water - neither drowning nor swimming to shore.  That mentality carried into this past offseason and into the early part of the season when it was obvious that the fork had been stuck in them.  I think it largely still exists today.

 

I just want this team to decide on where they are and work to move in that direction.  Quit treading water.  It's time to commit to the future by allowing the youth to take over and to build from that.

"Quit treading water". That has been my same feeling for at least the last two years, and probably should have been before then. Using actions and results as a window to look inside of Ryans philosophy it seemed this: Never make a big mistake. Never go all in, and never admit your toast and go all out. Always remain on the fringes of relevancy. Good orginisations know sports are cyclical. You are good, you have low drafts slots, your players age or move to greener pastures, and one day you say WTH, and start rebuilding. You trade off your remaining assets for prospects and start over. And if you are at least semi honest with your fans, and proceed with a plan, most will give you the benefit of the doubt. It's the only way to build a competitive team. Spending some money wisely when well into your cycle finishes the equation. But money alone will not do the trick. I hope the new FO comes in and try's to iron out this process, which is roughly a year or more behind schedule, and not take a short cut, and try and just bring the rubes back into the concession stands!

[jimmer]

Patience isn't unlimited.  If I go to my favorite local restaurant (currently Timbermine Steakhouse), I wait patiently to get my food, because I know when I get it, it will be delicious. I'm not, however, waiting two hours to get my food no matter how good of a restaurant it is.

 

We have been waiting a quarter of a century.

 

 

[Jham]

 

I believe the point being made was that Sano started playing professionally as a teenager, so it makes sense that his minor league numbers aren't as gaudy as Bryant's stats. He faced a much steeper learning curve entering professional baseball. 

 

Could be, but if Sano had that sort of success in him, you think he'd have demonstrated it at some point.  If he was going to take a major step forward, I think we'd have seen it by now.  Bryant can actually regress from his MiLB season to be an MVP candidate.  He's shown he can do it.  Sano's played professionally for 6 years with a year rehabbing an elbow.  Physically, he won't get more gifted as his career advances.  We're not waiting for his body to fill out.   There's a good chance that this is who he is.  His approach should improve, and luck should ebb in his favor for a season or two where he might approach 40 or might approach .300.  

You can answer my question since we're on the subject of missing points.  What % chance do you put on Sano reaching even Bryant's current level of production (Bryant has more room to improve relative to his MiLB #s).

[Jham]

 

Seems to me that the definition of patience implies that you don't have a timeline on it.  Like it or not, if patience was the answer last year, it's likely still the answer this year, at least with guys like Buxton, Berrios, Sano, etc. (though I'm really not understanding the lack of such with Sano.  He's already pretty good, comparing him to Bryant, whom we could not have possibly drafted seems rather odd).

 

Now that said,  that doesn't mean that we keep the same coaches, same front office, etc.  I think it's time for some of that to change.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be patient with some of these kids.

I think I'm the one doing the Bryant comparison.  As Jimmer stated, you can be patient waiting for a first class 28 oz bone in cowboy ribeye or 12 oz fillet with truffles, but should you're probably not being as patient for 16oz T-bone at a Peoria truck stop.  You could luck into a really really good steak there, but the odds are you'll be madder about the 90 minute wait than you are happy with the result.  Which is my point: does the talent we have vs the talent they could return warrant the patience?  Plus our roof is leaking (pitching) should we really be waiting patiently for steak dinners?

[DocBauer]

How much patience....when I asked two years ago, I was told THIS was the year....when I asked last year, I was told THIS was the year.

 

How many bad years are reasonable, before people stop telling irrational fans they should be patient?

 

btw, all fans are irrational. It's literally the etymology of fan.....

I certainly can't disagree with your opinion or frustration Mike. And while there was certainly some hope

..(false hope?)...brought on by last year, I think most of the members here at TD were saying 2017-2018, if I recall my own memory correctly. Ryan was probably the one pushing for this season.

 

But I have to say, while being patient sucks, there is a difference being patient for organizational change, and being patient for a rebuild to take place while waiting for prospects to arrive and watching a roster comprised of fill-ins vs watching a roster that is now being filled by young and talented players.

 

I want Sano, Kepler, Berrios and everyone else to be ROY and all star caliber players immediately too. But we all know it doesn't work that way. Let's say the Twins lose 90 again in 2017 and can't contend but we see real improvement in these kids as the year goes on and the promotion of Mejia, Gonsalves, Garver and others. Not saying they WILL lose 90, just saying, it will be more entertaining, interesting and hopeful. Especially if the new guys at the top make some necessary changes.

[jimmer]

 

  Plus our roof is leaking (pitching) should we really be waiting patiently for steak dinners?

Their steaks are that good :-)

 

My point was, it's good to have patience, but it's not indefinite. Nor should it be expected to be indefinite. 

 

Additionally, when Mike talks about people saying it would be last year and/or this year when we'd be real competitive again, I'm pretty sure he meant people on discussion boards like this.  Because a lot of that had been said whenever someone questioned Ryan's decisions (especially last year, when some even went so far as to proclaim that Ryan's rebuild was done).  The timeline kept being moved back by people screaming have patience with Ryan's rebuild. 

 

 

[DocBauer]

Last midseason pissed me off but not because they didn't go all-in. I didn't think they were good enough to go all-in but had they picked up some bullpen help in June, maybe they squeak into the Wild Card.

 

We all knew the bullpen was a hand grenade with a pulled pin; why couldn't Ryan see it?

 

Picking up Jepsen was fine. Picking up Cotts was fine. I didn't want much more than that but it needed to happen at least one month earlier than it did (or the Twins should have aggressively pulled from the minors earlier in the season).

 

I didn't love this offseason and questioned many of the moves (and non-moves) but ultimately felt that this was it for Ryan and the front office. If they succeeded, then good on them. If they failed and the team took a step back, then they need to be replaced.

 

Well, we know how that went. I'm a pretty patient guy and I don't advocate firing a person based on what I predict the future will be but I do believe in firing people if a modest expectation is not met after 4+ years of work.

Agree 100%. I had doubts the Twins were ready to fully challenge last season as well. And I'm glad Ryan didn't move valuable pieces of the future for that one shot. But there was no excuse not to move sooner than they did. Further, personally, I thought there was room to add another RP as well. Further, to bring up and old arguement but pertinent one, the move of May to the pen vs Pelley is still a stunner. May was pitching better and had/has a future. Pelley was losing his rotation MOJO and was a better fit for the pen, short and long term, than May.

 

The best thing that happened is what didn't happen, selling off youngsters for a questionable 1 year push.

[DocBauer]

Interesting analogy on the steak dinners and it's making me kind of hungry, lol. But I'm going to tweak said analogy and move it along somewhat.

 

What you were waiting 90 minutes for was not your food, but a table on a busy night for the opening of a new restaurant. That's where we are now. With a new FO coming in, hopefully some new "cooks", (manager and coaches), you now have a table, check out the new menu and place an order.

 

You can't judge the restaurant on the waiting line. You have to judge the restaurant on the service, cook time, and the quality of a meal you haven't sampled yet.

 

We don't know who's going to be in charge yet, or the moves and changes they will make. But there are a lot of talented young players here getting their feet wet and more to arrive soon. Remember, not a single one of these young players has more than a year and a half in the majors.

 

Yes, we need more and better pitching. And no, I can't tell you exactly who or when or how that is going to change. But what I see on the menu now is a whole more appetizing than where I've eaten at before.

[Jham]

Interesting analogy on the steak dinners and it's making me kind of hungry, lol. But I'm going to tweak said analogy and move it along somewhat.

 

What you were waiting 90 minutes for was not your food, but a table on a busy night for the opening of a new restaurant. That's where we are now. With a new FO coming in, hopefully some new "cooks", (manager and coaches), you now have a table, check out the new menu and place an order.

 

You can't judge the restaurant on the waiting line. You have to judge the restaurant on the service, cook time, and the quality of a meal you haven't sampled yet.

 

We don't know who's going to be in charge yet, or the moves and changes they will make. But there are a lot of talented young players here getting their feet wet and more to arrive soon. Remember, not a single one of these young players has more than a year and a half in the majors.

 

Yes, we need more and better pitching. And no, I can't tell you exactly who or when or how that is going to change. But what I see on the menu now is a whole more appetizing than where I've eaten at before.

So Sano and Buxton are like dry-aging to maximize flavor and tenderness? Can I at least get a quality Kentucky bourbon while i wait? Or was that Nunez... now I'm confused... as long as we're not dry aging ground chuck and just watching it spoil.

 

Also, no one order the Kobe beef. Overrated, too expensive, and breaks its leg in its first game.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Could be, but if Sano had that sort of success in him, you think he'd have demonstrated it at some point.  If he was going to take a major step forward, I think we'd have seen it by now.  Bryant can actually regress from his MiLB season to be an MVP candidate.  He's shown he can do it.  Sano's played professionally for 6 years with a year rehabbing an elbow.  Physically, he won't get more gifted as his career advances.  We're not waiting for his body to fill out.   There's a good chance that this is who he is.  His approach should improve, and luck should ebb in his favor for a season or two where he might approach 40 or might approach .300.  

You can answer my question since we're on the subject of missing points.  What % chance do you put on Sano reaching even Bryant's current level of production (Bryant has more room to improve relative to his MiLB #s).

I didn't miss any of the back and forth. You think Sano has peaked and you're using MiLB numbers as evidence. Mr. Brooks pointed out, and I agree with, what we see as a flaw in that argument. I disagree that a 23 year old male has reached his physical peak. I'm with you in that I expect his approach to continue to improve but I wouldn't attribute any of the subsequent statistical increases to luck. Those improvements are called player growth and development. As for your question, there is no way to quantify the % chance that Sano becomes the 2016 version of Kris Bryant. Rather than give an arbitrary number I can say that Sano's rookie season looked a lot like Bryant so far this season, so I don't think its a stretch at all to believe Sano can have an offensive year like Bryant. 

[jimmer]

 

'Rather than give an arbitrary number I can say that Sano's rookie season looked a lot like Bryant so far this season, so I don't think its a stretch at all to believe Sano can have an offensive year like Bryant. '

 

Sano's 2015 was helped GREATLY by a BABIP just under .400.  Bryant's is sitting at .335 right now.  And Bryant hasn't struck out almost 36% of the time this year like Sano did in 2015.  He hasn't even struck out 22% of the time.  Bryant's BA, OBP, SLG% all higher than Sano's last year as is his wRC+.  Their numbers aren't really that close, especially when you look at what drove Sano's: A BABIP of .396.

 

Some warned of the dropoff that would likely come as Sano's unsustainable 2015 BABIP dropped.  Though his BABIP is still very good, it dropped 70 points or so.  The people who thought his offensive production wouldn't hurt too much since Sano's K% would likely drop too were disappointed as Sano's K% is exactly the same as it was last year.  35.5%

[Jham]

 

I didn't miss any of the back and forth. You think Sano has peaked and you're using MiLB numbers as evidence. Mr. Brooks pointed out, and I agree with, what we see as a flaw in that argument. I disagree that a 23 year old male has reached his physical peak. I'm with you in that I expect his approach to continue to improve but I wouldn't attribute any of the subsequent statistical increases to luck. Those improvements are called player growth and development. As for your question, there is no way to quantify the % chance that Sano becomes the 2016 version of Kris Bryant. Rather than give an arbitrary number I can say that Sano's rookie season looked a lot like Bryant so far this season, so I don't think its a stretch at all to believe Sano can have an offensive year like Bryant. 

I didn't say his growth would be luck related.  I'm saying Sano projects to have some years where luck helps his overall number, and some years where luck goes against him.  Same as any other player.  

You can tell me what I used MiLB numbers to show and you're still wrong.  Sano never had any MiLB season like Bryant's.  

 

And though "perceived chance" may seem arbitrary to you, what's not arbitrary about predicting the future?  We could use things that are less arbitrary like putting up actual money, but I sort of think "Wanna bet?" is a little childish.  But essentially that's what we're doing.  We're betting the future of the franchise on these prospects in "wait and see" fashion.  That's part 1 of my question.  Does this class project well enough to deserve the "wait and see" approach.  To me, it's darn close.  Perhaps it's good enough if we had any pitching at all.  The 2nd part of my question is: Does Sano's realistic ceiling (he was just 1 example) warrant a "wait and see" approach while other teams may be offering pitching or attractive prospect packages now.  Do we bet on Sano or on the prospect packages?  I didn't even draw a conclusion.  I just asked questions.

But if you believe Sano and Bryant have the same chance at the same type of success, I dunno what to tell you.  If you think Sano is going to get faster, more flexible, or stronger as he gets older, I don't know what to tell you.  If you think Sano is ever going to reduce his K's down to 21%...  

 

My only point is that "elite" gets thrown around a lot.  Bryant is elite.  Trout is elite.  Sano has flaws.  Doesn't mean he's not a great player.  But is he good enough?  

You could still answer the question.  It's only meant for fun, and you can't be wrong unless you guess 100% or 0%.

[KirbyDome89]

 

'Rather than give an arbitrary number I can say that Sano's rookie season looked a lot like Bryant so far this season, so I don't think its a stretch at all to believe Sano can have an offensive year like Bryant. '

 

Sano's 2015 was helped GREATLY by a BABIP just under .400.  Bryant's is sitting at .335 right now.  And Bryant hasn't struck out almost 36% of the time this year like Sano did in 2015.  He hasn't even struck out 22% of the time.  Bryant's BA, OBP, SLG% all higher than Sano's last year as is his wRC+.  Their numbers aren't really that close, especially when you look at what drove Sano's: A BABIP of .396.

 

Some warned of the dropoff that would likely come as Sano's unsustainable 2015 BABIP dropped.  Though his BABIP is still very good, it dropped 70 points or so.  The people who thought his offensive production wouldn't hurt too much since Sano's K% would likely drop too were disappointed as Sano's K% is exactly the same as it was last year.  35.5%

I meant he could have a year like Bryant, not exactly the same. I realize Bryant this year trumps Sano as a rookie and yes I saw he had a high babip. If you're of the opinion that the Sano we've seen this year is who we have moving forward then that .396 looks like an aberration. I would say this year is more of a floor than ceiling, in which case I think a babip somewhere roughly between the two seasons is reasonable. If his approach at the plate improves, as most players do with age, and he reaches peak physical maturity I can see years that are consistent with his rookie season. I wasn't arguing that babip had no part, but again, with time and development I don't think its a stretch to envision him putting up numbers like his rookie year, which again, are similar to what we're seeing Bryant do this season.

The K% isn't a huge deal to me. It would be nice to see a reduction in the rate, but as long as hes drawing walks I can live with it. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In 2015, Sano's OPS+ was 149 (though with fewer PA) compared to Bryant's 136.

 

In 2016, Bryant reduced his K rate to 21.6% from 30.6% in 2015. He is having an MVP season. Bryant and Sano had similar K rates in the minors. With time, Sano should be able to reduce his K rate though doubtfully as low as Bryant's is now. Just looking at it from that angle, it's not a stretch to me to think Sano could have some seasons like Bryant is having now. If Sano was a Cub I'd bet on it, because whatever they are doing over there is working.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I didn't say his growth would be luck related.  I'm saying Sano projects to have some years where luck helps his overall number, and some years where luck goes against him.  Same as any other player.  

You can tell me what I used MiLB numbers to show and you're still wrong.  Sano never had any MiLB season like Bryant's.  

 

And though "perceived chance" may seem arbitrary to you, what's not arbitrary about predicting the future?  We could use things that are less arbitrary like putting up actual money, but I sort of think "Wanna bet?" is a little childish.  But essentially that's what we're doing.  We're betting the future of the franchise on these prospects in "wait and see" fashion.  That's part 1 of my question.  Does this class project well enough to deserve the "wait and see" approach.  To me, it's darn close.  Perhaps it's good enough if we had any pitching at all.  The 2nd part of my question is: Does Sano's realistic ceiling (he was just 1 example) warrant a "wait and see" approach while other teams may be offering pitching or attractive prospect packages now.  Do we bet on Sano or on the prospect packages?  I didn't even draw a conclusion.  I just asked questions.

But if you believe Sano and Bryant have the same chance at the same type of success, I dunno what to tell you.  If you think Sano is going to get faster, more flexible, or stronger as he gets older, I don't know what to tell you.  If you think Sano is ever going to reduce his K's down to 21%...  

 

My only point is that "elite" gets thrown around a lot.  Bryant is elite.  Trout is elite.  Sano has flaws.  Doesn't mean he's not a great player.  But is he good enough?  

You could still answer the question.  It's only meant for fun, and you can't be wrong unless you guess 100% or 0%.

We agree on the ebb and flow. I've said my bit on the MiLB comparison. I wasn't dumping on you for the question, its just that any number I would assign could be supported only by opinion. I realize all discussion on these boards are opinion based but there is usually some way to incorporate a statistical side into each argument. Honestly if you gave me 50/50 odds I would be ecstatic.

 

I think with the entire class we need to be in "wait and see,"mode. I agree the pitching needs serious help. A prospect may go as part of a package to bring back real help, and I understand that is a reality. I don't agree with the notion of selling off a large chunk of the young core and starting over. You have to invest years just to have an idea how a player might turn out. Every time you trade off your prospects you deplete your minor league system and the big league team has nothing to draw from. A mid market team that isn't very active in free agency like the Twins can't operate like that. Add to this the fact that the draft is such a crap shoot and reshuffling until you have a "wait and see," class is a terrible idea. You mentioned the Astros, Royals and Pirates earlier. Houston went scorched earth, sold off veteran contracts, was horrible for a few years, hoarded prospects (except Appel) and now is reaping the rewards of their youth movement. KC and Pittsburgh couldn't build any success during their down years because they couldn't keep any talent on their rosters after it reached MLB. Starting around 04-05' both teams began drafting the core players we're watching today and actually kept them rather than trade and reshuffle. 

 

Its obvious not everybody shares the same opinion of Sano. We know he won't become faster but I couldn't disagree any more about physical maturation improving before ultimately declining as well as improvements to plate approach. I don't you need to tell me anything regarding human development. 

 

Sano isn't elite now, but that doesn't mean he can't become an elite talent. Trout is a generational player who very may well end up as one of the best CFs of all time. If he is the measuring stick to which you're comparing all upcoming players then yes 99.9% of the time you'll be underwhelmed, all players have flaws.

[old nurse]

Myer 4 innings 4 runs    Meat analogy would be    Braunsweiger

 

A J Achter 0 runs 2 innings  If he keeps up with the mop up role he will start showing up on people's OMG the Twin's missed n this guy list

[Jham]

 

We agree on the ebb and flow. I've said my bit on the MiLB comparison. I wasn't dumping on you for the question, its just that any number I would assign could be supported only by opinion. I realize all discussion on these boards are opinion based but there is usually some way to incorporate a statistical side into each argument. Honestly if you gave me 50/50 odds I would be ecstatic.

 

I think with the entire class we need to be in "wait and see,"mode. I agree the pitching needs serious help. A prospect may go as part of a package to bring back real help, and I understand that is a reality. I don't agree with the notion of selling off a large chunk of the young core and starting over. You have to invest years just to have an idea how a player might turn out. Every time you trade off your prospects you deplete your minor league system and the big league team has nothing to draw from. A mid market team that isn't very active in free agency like the Twins can't operate like that. Add to this the fact that the draft is such a crap shoot and reshuffling until you have a "wait and see," class is a terrible idea. You mentioned the Astros, Royals and Pirates earlier. Houston went scorched earth, sold off veteran contracts, was horrible for a few years, hoarded prospects (except Appel) and now is reaping the rewards of their youth movement. KC and Pittsburgh couldn't build any success during their down years because they couldn't keep any talent on their rosters after it reached MLB. Starting around 04-05' both teams began drafting the core players we're watching today and actually kept them rather than trade and reshuffle. 

 

Its obvious not everybody shares the same opinion of Sano. We know he won't become faster but I couldn't disagree any more about physical maturation improving before ultimately declining as well as improvements to plate approach. I don't you need to tell me anything regarding human development. 

 

Sano isn't elite now, but that doesn't mean he can't become an elite talent. Trout is a generational player who very may well end up as one of the best CFs of all time. If he is the measuring stick to which you're comparing all upcoming players then yes 99.9% of the time you'll be underwhelmed, all players have flaws.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's part of the angst we all feel over the rebuild.  It hasn't been going as well as we hoped.  Now committing the wrong way will set us back at least several seasons.  If we trade the core and start over, we're saying we're aiming at least a couple years down the road for even relevance.  If we wait with this group and we're wrong, we might be 5 years out. If we decide we're going to try to win with this core and we're wrong, we may set ourselves back even further.  The answer isn't clear, and the choices are tough.  The core has shown glimpses, but also the possibility of flame out.  Most likely they're somewhere in the middle, but where?  Good enough?  Do we even have enough pieces to get pitching to try to win?  Despite all the losses, it could be a lot worse.  I like this 100 loss team better than a lot of those 90 loss teams that didn't have much hope of improvement.
 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yeah, I mean, I think that's part of the angst we all feel over the rebuild.  It hasn't been going as well as we hoped.  Now committing the wrong way will set us back at least several seasons.  If we trade the core and start over, we're saying we're aiming at least a couple years down the road for even relevance.  If we wait with this group and we're wrong, we might be 5 years out. If we decide we're going to try to win with this core and we're wrong, we may set ourselves back even further.  The answer isn't clear, and the choices are tough.  The core has shown glimpses, but also the possibility of flame out.  Most likely they're somewhere in the middle, but where?  Good enough?  Do we even have enough pieces to get pitching to try to win?  Despite all the losses, it could be a lot worse.  I like this 100 loss team better than a lot of those 90 loss teams that didn't have much hope of improvement.
 

Yep, nobody can say for certain that things will work out one way or another. Since the Twins finally accepted (did they ever really?) that the rebuild was on in late 2012 the push has been patience and wait for the talent to come through the farm system. We're seeing some of that now, finally. I feel like continuing down that road is the best approach. If they sell now they've wasted years watching those players develop and they're no closer to being relevant. I'm excited about the position players but like we said before pitching has me worried. Oh, for sure its more enjoyable to watch young players who have a future with the team as opposed to AAAA and journeymen.

[Major League Ready]

Let’s not give up the ship so soon.  Any rebuild has a great deal of uncertainty, especially as one as comprehensive and this team.  The Royals are a good recent example.  It took their core a few years to come together and the expectations were for it to all fall into place immediately.

Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Palonco, and Berrios are great talents with high ceilings.  Rosario, IMO, also has potential although probably at the level of the others.  He show the raw ability and if he figures out his pitch recognition/approach, an Alex Gordon comp is not completely insane.    Grossman actually is a pretty good 4th outfielder to fit with this group he flat out rakes LF pitching.

 

Sano has shown good mobility at 3B.  I would love to see him show up next spring 25 lbs lighter and announce he spent the off-season working on defense..  Vielma could be here by the middle of 2017.  It could work out to trade Dozier before the deadline, move Polanco to 2B and Vielma to SS.  They just need to improve at catcher.  I don’t know if that’s Garver or Turner but they need to resolve the catching situation through trade or free agency if one of those guys does not step-up next year.
    
We are starting almost from scratch on starting pitching.  The good news is that we are not reliant on a couple guys making it.  Santana is pretty solid and May will likely be back in the rotation next year.  We also several good prospects in Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Meija, and we can probably count Thorpe in that group of good prospects as well.   That six good prospects to go along with May.  Granted, none of them look like an ace at this point but I will take two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s and day over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters.  The former is much more reliant on a couple guys.  If one goes down … you are in trouble.  We are also going to have the #1 or #2 pick next June.  Yes, we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick.

 

We might look back at this season and say it was worth it if we get an ace and #1 or #2, especially if he is a college SP who can join the rotation in less than 2 years.  We have 9 or more prospects that to be part of the 2019 staff.   .

#1 - 2017 #1 pick
#2 – Berrios / Jay / Romero
#3-4 - May / Thorpe / Stewart / Jorge / Meija

 

I can see if other might rate the ceilings of Romero, Thorpe, and Jorge differently but the point remains the same.  There is plenty to work with in our farm system.  Play it out.  If you want to make a big move, sign an international free agent or a regular free agent SP in 2018.  Santana, Hughes and Perkins are off the books after 2017 and Mauer after 2018.  We have not even added the potential pieces from trading Dozier if that happens.  Right now a SP at AA who eventually becomes a 2 and AA guy who becomes a slightly above average catcher, and a couple lottery tickets sounds pretty good. 

 

That’s a lot of assets from which to construct a team and we should be able to make significant improvement every year for the next 3-4 years and become a contender.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Let’s not give up the ship so soon.  Any rebuild has a great deal of uncertainty, especially as one as comprehensive and this team.  The Royals are a good recent example.  It took their core a few years to come together and the expectations were for it to all fall into place immediately.

Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Palonco, and Berrios are great talents with high ceilings.  Rosario, IMO, also has potential although probably at the level of the others.  He show the raw ability and if he figures out his pitch recognition/approach, an Alex Gordon comp is not completely insane.    Grossman actually is a pretty good 4th outfielder to fit with this group he flat out rakes LF pitching.

 

Sano has shown good mobility at 3B.  I would love to see him show up next spring 25 lbs lighter and announce he spent the off-season working on defense..  Vielma could be here by the middle of 2017.  It could work out to trade Dozier before the deadline, move Polanco to 2B and Vielma to SS.  They just need to improve at catcher.  I don’t know if that’s Garver or Turner but they need to resolve the catching situation through trade or free agency if one of those guys does not step-up next year.
    
We are starting almost from scratch on starting pitching.  The good news is that we are not reliant on a couple guys making it.  Santana is pretty solid and May will likely be back in the rotation next year.  We also several good prospects in Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Meija, and we can probably count Thorpe in that group of good prospects as well.   That six good prospects to go along with May.  Granted, none of them look like an ace at this point but I will take two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s and day over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters.  The former is much more reliant on a couple guys.  If one goes down … you are in trouble.  We are also going to have the #1 or #2 pick next June.  Yes, we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick.

 

We might look back at this season and say it was worth it if we get an ace and #1 or #2, especially if he is a college SP who can join the rotation in less than 2 years.  We have 9 or more prospects that to be part of the 2019 staff.   .

#1 - 2017 #1 pick
#2 – Berrios / Jay / Romero
#3-4 - May / Thorpe / Stewart / Jorge / Meija

 

I can see if other might rate the ceilings of Romero, Thorpe, and Jorge differently but the point remains the same.  There is plenty to work with in our farm system.  Play it out.  If you want to make a big move, sign an international free agent or a regular free agent SP in 2018.  Santana, Hughes and Perkins are off the books after 2017 and Mauer after 2018.  We have not even added the potential pieces from trading Dozier if that happens.  Right now a SP at AA who eventually becomes a 2 and AA guy who becomes a slightly above average catcher, and a couple lottery tickets sounds pretty good. 

 

That’s a lot of assets from which to construct a team and we should be able to make significant improvement every year for the next 3-4 years and become a contender.

 

That's extremely optimistic to think you'll get "two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s" out of that group, and likely a #1 with the pick next year. The percentages just don't play out that way. Guys flame out or get hurt or just don't make the jump way too often. We haven't developed even a 3 in a long time. Realistically, you'll be doing great if you got a true 2, 3, and a 4 out of that mix. Also, the #1 pick in the draft may not even be a pitcher, and there isn't necessarily going to be an obvious ace available. Even if they get one it'll be a 3-4 years before they'd contribute.

 

I'm not advocating for any action, I think the Twins have to hold steady, see who develops, and maybe make a couple smart trades if a great opportunity is presented. Finding an appropriate trade return for Dozier is the only big one I'd push for. I just can't get on board when people look at the farm system and assume quantity will settle out to a starting roster of studs. Especially with the way things have gone lately. The failure rate is way too high.

[Jham]

 

Let’s not give up the ship so soon.  Any rebuild has a great deal of uncertainty, especially as one as comprehensive and this team.  The Royals are a good recent example.  It took their core a few years to come together and the expectations were for it to all fall into place immediately.

 

It also took them trading Will Meyers and Jake Odorizzi in order to get James Shields and more importantly, as it turned out, Wade Davis.  That's not that far off of Buxton and Berrios....

[Major League Ready]

 

That's extremely optimistic to think you'll get "two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s" out of that group, and likely a #1 with the pick next year. The percentages just don't play out that way. Guys flame out or get hurt or just don't make the jump way too often. We haven't developed even a 3 in a long time. Realistically, you'll be doing great if you got a true 2, 3, and a 4 out of that mix. Also, the #1 pick in the draft may not even be a pitcher, and there isn't necessarily going to be an obvious ace available. Even if they get one it'll be a 3-4 years before they'd contribute.

 

I'm not advocating for any action, I think the Twins have to hold steady, see who develops, and maybe make a couple smart trades if a great opportunity is presented. Finding an appropriate trade return for Dozier is the only big one I'd push for. I just can't get on board when people look at the farm system and assume quantity will settle out to a starting roster of studs. Especially with the way things have gone lately. The failure rate is way too high.

I did not say you would get "two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s".  I said I would take that over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters.  I agree it would be optimistic.  You are being too literal.  That group gives us plenty of prospects to construct a good staff.  I also said a FA could be part of the construction of the staff and the context of the top pick is that it could be a key part of the rebuild.

 

You also constructed your own version of what I said about that top pick.  The exact quote was “we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick.”  In other words, given the situation, let’s hope that top pick is a college SP.  A top college starter is probably a big disappointment if it takes 3-4 years for them to get to the majors.  Rodon was in the big leagues within a year.

 

I have not seen anyone here suggest the farm system has a bunch of guys that are going to be studs.  Quite the opposite.  Most, including me, have said there are plenty of guys that can be good but the system really does not have guys that look to have ultra high ceilings.

 

.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I did not say you would get "two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s".  I said I would take that over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters.  I agree it would be optimistic.  You are being too literal.  That group gives us plenty of prospects to construct a good staff.  I also said a FA could be part of the construction of the staff and the context of the top pick is that it could be a key part of the rebuild.

 

You also constructed your own version of what I said about that top pick.  The exact quote was “we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick.”  In other words, given the situation, let’s hope that top pick is a college SP.  A top college starter is probably a big disappointment if it takes 3-4 years for them to get to the majors.  Rondon was in the big leagues within a year.

 

.

 

I didn't intent to be pedantic, but the way you phrased this heavily implied that you thought our prospects would shake out that way:

 

"That six good prospects to go along with May.Granted, none of them look like an ace at this point but I will take two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s and day over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters."

 

Seemed pretty clear cut the way I read it, but my bad if that wasn't your intent. Anyways, I agree that's probably better than a prototypical 1-5 rotation but we're a long ways off from that scenario without some big luck. It would take most of our prospects hitting their ceiling, a great fast-moving college pitcher in the upcoming draft, and probably one more pitcher that currently isn't in the organization.

[bird]

 

Polanco, Kepler, and Sano were brought in before Ryan came back....

 

And this is relevant because none of these guys would be Twins if Ryan had come back first, right?

[Willihammer]

Outside of Perkins, the Twins haven't had an impactful home grown pitching talent since Scott Baker, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

Here's an outside the box idea.

 

Trade Sano, Vargas, Park, and every other prospect for pitching. Then go balls-in on Shohei Otani. Have him start 1/5 and DH the other 4 days.

[bird]

 

So Sano and Buxton are like dry-aging to maximize flavor and tenderness? Can I at least get a quality Kentucky bourbon while i wait? Or was that Nunez... now I'm confused... as long as we're not dry aging ground chuck and just watching it spoil.

Also, no one order the Kobe beef. Overrated, too expensive, and breaks its leg in its first game.

 

 

For a minute there, I thought Kobe Beef was your nickname for Park.