What Happened To Our Twinkies?

[Platoon]

Not everything this team does is bad. Not everything this team does is good. It's possible to give them credit for Dozier and want to punch them in the face for Buxton. . It is possible. And frankly I have never heard Dozier credit Bruno specifically. Nor do I dispute that he did. I have heard numerous references to the aforementioned Willingham comparison. And you ar correct, there is no doubt that Twins coaches have helped some players improve. Simply the law of averages would guarantee those results. Nor do I think that the coaching staff does not know fundamentals. Simple exposure to baseball over 50 years guarantees that also. I would say that somewhere, somehow, they are not getting the message across on a consistent basis. Bottom line, I tend to look at the body of the work, and no matter what individual one uses for an example, there will be an opposite take on said example. And we have ours. And will again!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There were so many decisions made by the Twins I didn't like going into this season and I was not alone.  There were a few things that made me nuts.  The idea to take Miguel Sano and put him right field because Trevor Plouffe HAD TO be a Twin was crazy.  They couldn't see this coming?  Sacrificing Sano for Trevor Plouffe was straight up ignorant on a few different levels.  It moved Kepler to the background.  Bidding for and getting Byung Ho Park when Kennys Vargas could give you the same thing for less was a waste of time and resources for a question mark that didn't even fit.  This was monumentally stupid stuff and me saying this isn't hindsight.  I (and a whole lot of other fans) didn't like any of that right when it happened.

 

That's just a drop in the bucket.  What about the Twins inability to raise starting pitching?  The last halfway decent pitcher the Twins drafted and developed  is Matt Garza.  This isn't happening because they are getting things right.  What's going on with Buxton and Berrios right now takes the cake.  Especially the Berrios situation.  You got Bert Blyleven coming out of the booth injecting himself into the situation?  Berrios already had a few guys working with and Bert and his enormous ego gets involved?  Acknowledging the Twins got something right at this point is like acknowledging a student did well on a small part of the test that he failed.

 

I think the Twins deserve A LOT of criticism now.  Let the floodgates open.  

*facedesk*

 

Okay, case in point. First off, I agree with most of this post.

 

But what does it have to do with the point I made in my post about falsely attributing failure when it doesn't exist in a specific case?

 

This thread of comments wasn't about player development. It wasn't about minor leaguers. It wasn't about fundamental baseball. In my opinion, the Twins have failed at those three things far more than they have succeeded in recent years. That's a huge, gigantic, massive problem.

 

But that wasn't what the conversation was about. It was about the Twins "changing" players - some of them very good players - to fit a specific mold and that point didn't have much in the way of evidence to support it (and a fair amount of evidence to the contrary).

 

Again, it's entirely possible to dislike much of what this organization does wrong while occasionally tipping the cap to the things they get right. We don't need to manufacture criticism of this team, many of their mistakes are on painful display six nights a week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is possible. And frankly I have never heard Dozier credit Bruno specifically. Nor do I dispute that he did. I have heard numerous references to the aforementioned Willingham comparison.

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/behind-brian-doziers-turnaround-r1961

 

"Dozier said he and Brunansky spent that night and most of the next day studying to get a feel where he was misfiring.

 

They counted 'clicks' before the pitcher releases the ball to the time of contact. According to Dozier, the process starts once a hitter's foot hits the ground.

 

"Once your foot is down, you start counting the clicks in your swing," Dozier said. "Good hitters who have their foot down can see the ball -- for instance, Mauer has eight or nine clicks -- and I was only having like three."

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1711681-minnesota-twins-brian-dozier-is-more-than-just-a-baseball-player

 

"Dozier says he made a lot of progress in late May when he made a big adjustment with his swing under the direction of hitting coach Tom Brunansky. According to Brandon Warne of ESPN1500, Dozier’s batting average fell to .197. Since then, he is hitting .263/.364/.480 with a 24-to-20 walk-to-strikeout rate."

 

[ewen21]

 

 

This thread of comments wasn't about player development. It wasn't about minor leaguers. It wasn't about fundamental baseball. In my opinion, the Twins have failed at those three things far more than they have succeeded in recent years. That's a huge, gigantic, massive problem.

Huh?  Facedesk?

What kind of reaction is that?  That implies my post was not worthy and yet you agree with most of it.  I don't get that.  You're saying I'm off topic?  Are you saying we should be talking about whether or not Brian Dozier learned something from Bruno?

 

The title "What happened to our Twinkies?" seems to suggest to me that it is about all of those things and more because there are SO MANY things wrong right now.  

 

I dunno man.  Just wondering

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree with Brock regarding Dozier.

I rip this club much more than I praise them, but I like to think I'm playing it down the middle and my ratio is a reflection of what this organization has been doing.

 

Brian Dozier is a great success for this organization. The guy is a mid round draft pick who was unremarkable in the minors.

He is a legit top 10, probably top 5 at his position.

The organization needs a total overhaul, but that doesn't mean they've never gotten something right.

And perfection shouldn't be standard bearer for success. It's almost like some think the Twins screwed up Dozier because he's not perfect.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Huh?  Facedesk?

What kind of reaction is that?  That implies my post was not worthy and yet you agree with most of it.  I don't get that.  You're saying I'm off topic?  Are you saying we should be talking about whether or not Brian Dozier learned something from Bruno?

 

The title "What happened to our Twinkies?" seems to suggest to me that it is about all of those things and more because there are SO MANY things wrong right now.  

 

I dunno man.  Just wondering

My frustration is not with the content of your post, it was the fact that you're the third or fourth person to take a fragment of one of my posts and turn it into a tangent unrelated to the topic I was specifically discussing (not the thread at large, the singular point I was rebutting).

 

And that point was that the Twins are forcing players to fit into a mold that does not come naturally to them and the examples used were terrible. There is very little evidence to support that analysis and a fair amount of evidence to dispute it.

 

Again, there are mountains of examples of the Twins doing things wrong and screwing up rosters, draft picks, development, fundamentals, etc... We don't need to manufacture wrong-doing with this team.

[Squirrel]

 

Huh?  Facedesk?

What kind of reaction is that?  That implies my post was not worthy and yet you agree with most of it.  I don't get that.  You're saying I'm off topic?  Are you saying we should be talking about whether or not Brian Dozier learned something from Bruno?

 

The title "What happened to our Twinkies?" seems to suggest to me that it is about all of those things and more because there are SO MANY things wrong right now.  

 

I dunno man.  Just wondering

It means STICK TO THE TOPIC and don't use each and every thread to vomit up everything you think is wrong. Address the points of the thread. No one is arguing that there is much wrong here, but that isn't the point of this thread. Don't go off on tangents ... STICK TO THE TOPIC AT HAND.

 

For everyone here ... I'm on a staycation. If I can catch up with my reading, I'm going to just start deleting posts without notification if you can't find a way to discuss topics without throwing in lazy, generalized analysis just because you are frustrated. We are ALL frustrated. Start a blog if you want to unleash, but if you are going to use each and every thread to unleash every tangent you can think of, your post will be removed.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Start a blog if you want to unleash

not taking sides on the subtopic, but I couldn't agree more with this!

[Squirrel]

 

not taking sides on the subtopic, but I couldn't agree more with this!

It's very cathartic and a more appropriate means to express oneself. But posting in a discussion forum is just ... easier ... but then it also just clogs them up and drags them down. 

[d-mac]

 

I personally don't know what the coaching staff is telling Brian Dozier... I don't know if they are trying to force him and I also don't know how Brian is reacting to the whatever instruction is given. 

 

I've seen the games and I'm pretty convinced that Brian has had more success going the opposite way during the past few hot months and he had no success going the opposite way during the extremely cold months.

 

He is still a pull hitter without question but he has added to his game and my assumption is that he has put some serious work in to make these necessary adjustments. 

 

Lucky for us fangraphs just released their new split tool today! I just filtered for all balls in play to the opposite field and for the full year, Dozier has actually hit the lowest line drive % to the opposite field of his career, but has the highest BABIP. 2016 is actually the median season (of 5 seasons) of both hard-hit and soft-hit %. And since 2013 he has actually lowered his percent of balls in play to the right side every year. 

 

 Now, you might say "What about in the last three months, when Dozier has set the world on fire?" Let's examine just his batted balls for June, July, and August vs his career numbers. Dozier has a career (for all months) 15.6% LD rate, 13.5 hard-hit%, and a 35.5 soft-hit% with 18.9% of all batted balls hit to the right side. Dozier has actually hit 16.4% of his balls to the right side in Jul, Jun, and Aug, which is below his career average and is the second lowest % of all previous seasons over the same months- hitting more balls to the opposite field seems to be a late season trend in Brian's career. The line drive % is the second lowest (11.6%) and the fly ball % the second highest (76.7%) over the comparative period of previous seasons. However, his hard hit% is the second highest, and soft hit% is the second lowest. We can go even to a more granular level (SSS warning) and filter our set for time period, opposite field, and line drives or fly balls. His 20% hard hit% is tied for the median season. He has hit flyballs to the opposite field with the best authority of his career in these past three months, doubling his median season (for the months of Jun, Jul, and Aug) in hard hit % and the second lowest hard hit %. 

 

Certainly Brian has done a better job of driving the ball to the opposite field once he's elevated the ball, and that is reflected on his hard hit % on his fly balls and his increased ISO going the other way. However, he is not hitting line drives the other way, so some of his resurgence may be due for a BABIP correction. Furthermore, all batted ball types have seen the highest hard hit% of his career, regardless of direction, which is not surprising given that this is likely the best three month stretch of his career. And finally, he is definitely not "going the other way" more either for his entire season or over the past three months. 

 

Then there is this from an interview with Brian on fangraphs posted on Aug, 5th. 

 

 

Dozier on value: “The game has changed. Everything is being brought into light as far as advanced stats, and all that. They’re evaluating players like… for instance, a .300 hitter who slaps 5, 10 home runs is less valuable than a .250 hitter who hits 25-30 home runs. A guy who creates runs. People are realizing that’s it’s not just the statistics we see on the scoreboard that you use to evaluate a hitter.

“If you’re more of a power hitter, you’re more valuable. At the same time, the game is played up the middle. Catching, pitching, short, second, center field — and if you get offensive production out of those positions… I wouldn’t call them defense-first, but any time you can get offense up the middle it’s a plus. Power is an even bigger plus. Not just home runs, but extra-base hits. Guys who can put up 50, 60, 70 extra-base hits are really valuable. I’m about one thing, and that’s creating runs.”

 

...snip...

 

On self-identity and growing as a player: “You have to figure out what type of player you are — what type of hitter you are. Once you find that, you stick with it. You can try to make adjustments throughout your career, but you should never lose sight of your strengths. Once you find you can get 70 extra-base hits, like I did last year, why not utilize that? Even though I led the league in pull rate, why try to change it? You can try to get better at little things, but not at the expense of going against what you do best. That’s my mentality.

 

Going the other way does not appear to be something Brian has been concerned about, however Dick 'n' Bert would not stop talking about how Brian needed to go the other way over the first two months of the year while he was struggling. As the unofficial official mouthpieces of the organization when Dick 'n' Bert mention something along the lines of "player x needs to do a better job of y" we can be fairly sure that is something the team views needs to be fixed. Of course, we don't know what went on between Brian and Bruno, whether after two months of struggling to go the other way Bruno told him to just do his thing or Brian ignored the instruction and found success despite what the Twins were actively trying to do. Nothing he has done has been materially different than anything in the past- he has not made major changes to his spray chart of batted ball type (lots of fly balls, and mostly pulled), he has simply done a better job of what he has done in the past. 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Lucky for us fangraphs just released their new split tool today! I just filtered for all balls in play to the opposite field and for the full year, Dozier has actually hit the lowest line drive % to the opposite field of his career, but has the highest BABIP. 2016 is actually the median season (of 5 seasons) of both hard-hit and soft-hit %. And since 2013 he has actually lowered his percent of balls in play to the right side every year. 

 

 Now, you might say "What about in the last three months, when Dozier has set the world on fire?" Let's examine just his batted balls for June, July, and August vs his career numbers. Dozier has a career (for all months) 15.6% LD rate, 13.5 hard-hit%, and a 35.5 soft-hit% with 18.9% of all batted balls hit to the right side. Dozier has actually hit 16.4% of his balls to the right side in Jul, Jun, and Aug, which is below his career average and is the second lowest % of all previous seasons over the same months- hitting more balls to the opposite field seems to be a late season trend in Brian's career. The line drive % is the second lowest (11.6%) and the fly ball % the second highest (76.7%) over the comparative period of previous seasons. However, his hard hit% is the second highest, and soft hit% is the second lowest. We can go even to a more granular level (SSS warning) and filter our set for time period, opposite field, and line drives or fly balls. His 20% hard hit% is tied for the median season. He has hit flyballs to the opposite field with the best authority of his career in these past three months, doubling his median season (for the months of Jun, Jul, and Aug) in hard hit % and the second lowest hard hit %. 

 

Certainly Brian has done a better job of driving the ball to the opposite field once he's elevated the ball, and that is reflected on his hard hit % on his fly balls and his increased ISO going the other way. However, he is not hitting line drives the other way, so some of his resurgence may be due for a BABIP correction. Furthermore, all batted ball types have seen the highest hard hit% of his career, regardless of direction, which is not surprising given that this is likely the best three month stretch of his career. And finally, he is definitely not "going the other way" more either for his entire season or over the past three months. 

 

Then there is this from an interview with Brian on fangraphs posted on Aug, 5th. 

 

Going the other way does not appear to be something Brian has been concerned about, however Dick 'n' Bert would not stop talking about how Brian needed to go the other way over the first two months of the year while he was struggling. As the unofficial official mouthpieces of the organization when Dick 'n' Bert mention something along the lines of "player x needs to do a better job of y" we can be fairly sure that is something the team views needs to be fixed. Of course, we don't know what went on between Brian and Bruno, whether after two months of struggling to go the other way Bruno told him to just do his thing or Brian ignored the instruction and found success despite what the Twins were actively trying to do. Nothing he has done has been materially different than anything in the past- he has not made major changes to his spray chart of batted ball type (lots of fly balls, and mostly pulled), he has simply done a better job of what he has done in the past. 

 

Well Done

 

I can't argue with facts... I'll just say that he seems to have had more opposite field success using my eyeball. 

 

Even my eyeball agrees with the opposite way LD. I don't recall him lining anything that direction. It has been deep gappers that have made me stand up and applaud. Actually... I stay seated and applaud. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Lucky for us fangraphs just released their new split tool today! I just filtered for all balls in play to the opposite field and for the full year, Dozier has actually hit the lowest line drive % to the opposite field of his career, but has the highest BABIP. 2016 is actually the median season (of 5 seasons) of both hard-hit and soft-hit %. And since 2013 he has actually lowered his percent of balls in play to the right side every year. 

 

 Now, you might say "What about in the last three months, when Dozier has set the world on fire?" Let's examine just his batted balls for June, July, and August vs his career numbers. Dozier has a career (for all months) 15.6% LD rate, 13.5 hard-hit%, and a 35.5 soft-hit% with 18.9% of all batted balls hit to the right side. Dozier has actually hit 16.4% of his balls to the right side in Jul, Jun, and Aug, which is below his career average and is the second lowest % of all previous seasons over the same months- hitting more balls to the opposite field seems to be a late season trend in Brian's career. The line drive % is the second lowest (11.6%) and the fly ball % the second highest (76.7%) over the comparative period of previous seasons. However, his hard hit% is the second highest, and soft hit% is the second lowest. We can go even to a more granular level (SSS warning) and filter our set for time period, opposite field, and line drives or fly balls. His 20% hard hit% is tied for the median season. He has hit flyballs to the opposite field with the best authority of his career in these past three months, doubling his median season (for the months of Jun, Jul, and Aug) in hard hit % and the second lowest hard hit %. 

 

Certainly Brian has done a better job of driving the ball to the opposite field once he's elevated the ball, and that is reflected on his hard hit % on his fly balls and his increased ISO going the other way. However, he is not hitting line drives the other way, so some of his resurgence may be due for a BABIP correction. Furthermore, all batted ball types have seen the highest hard hit% of his career, regardless of direction, which is not surprising given that this is likely the best three month stretch of his career. And finally, he is definitely not "going the other way" more either for his entire season or over the past three months. 

 

Then there is this from an interview with Brian on fangraphs posted on Aug, 5th. 

 

Going the other way does not appear to be something Brian has been concerned about, however Dick 'n' Bert would not stop talking about how Brian needed to go the other way over the first two months of the year while he was struggling. As the unofficial official mouthpieces of the organization when Dick 'n' Bert mention something along the lines of "player x needs to do a better job of y" we can be fairly sure that is something the team views needs to be fixed. Of course, we don't know what went on between Brian and Bruno, whether after two months of struggling to go the other way Bruno told him to just do his thing or Brian ignored the instruction and found success despite what the Twins were actively trying to do. Nothing he has done has been materially different than anything in the past- he has not made major changes to his spray chart of batted ball type (lots of fly balls, and mostly pulled), he has simply done a better job of what he has done in the past. 

Bravo! It's posts like these that should be pinned for all to see. That way when the narrative of Dozier hitting more balls the other way comes up again, we can point to this. 

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not convinced it will be some sort of black Friday event........a really good leader will want to come in and assess many of the employees. That said, assuming the new GM is from the outside, I would expect some pretty major changes early in the process.....but I wouldn't expect what I think some people are expecting.

 

The GM may also get a mandate from the owner regarding front office turnover, i.e have to keep this guy, or can't fire more than 50%. The real weak link is the owner.  

[laloesch]

I don't understand why people still argue about certain team's player's using steroids anymore.  Every team has had MLB players using steroids since the late 60's.  That's a fact.  

 

However, what's up for debate is how openly it was used in certain clubhouses behind closed doors away from the fans and media and what kind of juices were used.  it wouldn't surprise me at all if certain teams had better "stuff" ie the Canseco hookups and easier access based on geographic location and connections.  

 

There's no doubt in my mind that the four championship Yankee teams of the late 90's were induced by steroid mania.  It's amazing those guys aren't all dead by now with heart attacks and strokes.