Improving the Twins

[jimmer]

There is nothing fine with this defense.

[old nurse]

 

The Mets don't need a DH(?). Maybe Sano could replace Cespedes in CF?

There seem to be a quite a few people here who think with consistent playing time Sano would be a serviceable 3b. Many have thought he could play 1B.  But if the Mets want to pay Mauer to waive his no trade......

[Guest]

There seem to be a quite a few people here who think with consistent playing time Sano would be a serviceable 3b. Many have thought he could play 1B.  But if the Mets want to pay Mauer to waive his no trade......

If Rob Antony can trade Mauer for deGrom, he should immediately get his own bronze statue on the Plaza.

[gocgo]

 

The Twins offense and defense are "fine" for now, they need catching help and a plan B at CF but other than that I feel pretty good about them. (Plouffe should be gone fwiw)

 

The problem is the rotation just like it has been since Santana left has been an unmitigated disaster. Santana and Gibson are a couple guys we can count on for the back end of the rotation, Berrios should be good but is still young/raw, and frankly everyone else is a massive question mark without a whole lot of upside. I have some faith Hughes can get back to being good, but still is a question mark in my mind.

The Twins absolutely need to find a way to bring in at least one ace or #2 type pitcher. The problem is the FA market is pretty bare when it comes to those types of players, so the Twins need to package Rosario+prospects IMO for a young solid #2 type.

Magic wand stuck on Fedex truck in Cleveland...fix what we can.

[DocBauer]

Good topic, but there are so many factors to consider, and you can't fix everything overnight.

 

I just don't see how you can give up on a healthy Sano so quickly at 3B despite some errors. If you did, past Twins like Gaetti and Koskie would never have been allowed to grow in to the players they became.Yes defense is important, and we don't know yet to what level of defense Sano may rise to. Also, regardless of position, sometimes you do have to weigh offense vs defense. There is often give and take when assembling your team/lineup.

 

I'd like to see better play at SS as well. Escobar has previously been pretty solid there, as well as providing a quality bat. After the past two seasons, is this one an aberration? Could you return to form next year? And while it's a SSS thus far, Polanco has looked pretty decent at SS. Could he be good enough to fight it out with Escobar next spring? His offense sure looks good. Or do you crowd the infield even more by signing someone else to come in for a couple of years?

 

And are we looking to compete or continue to play and rebuild with young talent?

 

Personally, I'm torn on the return of Plouffe as a safety valve/utility option for 2017. I can see both sides to the arguement. But right now, I think I stick with Polanco and Escobar in a battle at SS.

 

I think you sign a veteran catcher on a 1 year deal, probably look for another "Hicks" type, and let them compete with Murphy and Centeno, (who I kind of like). No pressure on Garver.

 

I'm afraid I just don't have an answer for the rotation. Santana, Gibson and Berrios should all be there. I just don't think you count on Hughes for anything right now, unless his rehab goes off without a hitch and he's throwing bullets. That leaves Duffey, May and Mejia as your most likely candidate for the 4 and 5 spots, though Wheeler probably deserves a shot somewhere. What I DO like is the fact that were talking about young guys getting the chance vs re-treads.

 

And if it wasn't made clear, Dozier is still part of my initial 2017 team. I like having a veteran or two on the team. And the guy's offense is very good, and hard to replace. I've been impressed with the adjustments he's made this season as well.

[spinowner]

 

Speaking of that, why are ball parks still built with a phone to the bull pen that looks like an old rotary phone?

Same reason that pitchers cover their mouths with their gloves when talking signs and strategy with their catchers. Cellular or cordless phone calls can be monitored, which means eavesdropping could occur. Old fashioned closed-circuit phone systems are much more secure.

[Rosterman]

You mean all teams aren't like the Twins...they play scissors/paper/rock to see how they lineup for that days call-to-the-pen. And when they see the manager walk out, they send someone in.

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Who's his replacement?  Wieters?  Yeah, that would be nice, but he's gonna cost some big $$.

If your goal is improving the D then almost any catcher in the league would be better than Suzuki. He should've been moved long before now but lets please stop making the same mistake. You know what they say the definition of insanity is.

[DaveW]

 

There is nothing fine with this defense.

Kepler+Buxton+Rosario in the OF will end up being one of the better defensively outfielders in baseball.
Mauer is gold glove caliber at 1st base. Dozier and Escobar are "fine" at SS.

 

Sano needs to improve at 3B no doubt thought.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler+Buxton+Rosario in the OF will end up being one of the better defensively outfielders in baseball.
Mauer is gold glove caliber at 1st base. Dozier and Escobar are "fine" at SS.

 

Sano needs to improve at 3B no doubt thought.

 

Well, that's not the OF right now, is it?

 

Have you looked at the stats? they have been bottom of the league thereabouts for three years.

[DaveW]

 

Well, that's not the OF right now, is it?

 

Have you looked at the stats? they have been bottom of the league thereabouts for three years.

Well that should be the outfield moving forward (2017) which is what this is all about, right?

 

A new catcher fixes the catching defense, and some sort of Polanco/Escobar/Sano/Dozier should fix the 2B/SS/3B side of the D.

The INF defense just needs to get close to average IMO, since Sano and Dozier and both 30 HR type guys.

 

The Twins really need pitchers who can strike people out, then you don't have to worry about defense as much! Funny how that works..

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not convinced Buxton starts next year in MN, are you?

[akmanak]

Our outfield has been terrible for about 3 years now, our pitching has been terrible for about 3 now, and our defense has been terrible for about 3 years now. This team is going to take a bit to turn around and With our top prospects looking like garbage I do not think this train wreck will be fixed for at least 3 years. Trade away are logjam at 3rd and 2nd to get some prospects who hopefully work out.

[bird]

 

Damn that JJ Hardy trade!

 

 

Hey, cut Billy Smith some slack, will ya? After all, he single-handedly discovered, recruited, signed, and developed Kepler, Sano, and Polanco.

[Doomtints]

 

 

The INF defense just needs to get close to average IMO, since Sano and Dozier and both 30 HR type guys.

 

 

 

Nah.  What infielders do on offense has no relation to the infield defense.  IF defense is extremely important.  This is why players who hit 30 home runs end up being outfielders or first basemen, teams find a way to get them into the lineup in spite of their lack of defensive ability.

 

Dozier is "good enough" defensively but Sano should not be out there.  Sano is a one tool player who should be DHing unless he turns into Harmon Killebrew.  In Killebrew's MVP season, he was pulled for a defensive replacement in something like 80 games, and the Twins won something like 75 of those games.  Until Sano hits like that, DH the kid.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If I'm trading 25-30 home runs (Dozier), I want MLB ready pitching.  AA type isn't going to cut it.  Gosh, I feel like Billy Beane!

I'm trading Dozier b/c he's gone in 2 years, and I'll take A+/AA pitching b/c I want better than Mejia type prospects. Teams with ace type potential pitching in the high minors aren't likely to unload it for the likes of BD... I'll stand corrected if they do, and be ecstatic about being wrong, but I think BD is more likely to get ML ready catching than ML ready pitching.

[bird]

I'm starting by inserting Buxton in CF permanently, sink or swim. He gets the full year and we live with the results. I insert Polanco at SS, again sink or swim for the full year. He doesn't fix SS defense, but he improves it. Then I put my sales hat on and talk to Jimmy Pohlad. I tell him he owes the fans this one. Once I get his approval, I sit down with Wilson Ramos and convince him he needs to come home and that he'll look regal accepting his HOF plaque in a Twins uniform. If he refuses, I say something disparaging about his mom and move on to Wieters, but one thing is certain, and that is I need to go outside the system for a solution at catcher. Suzuki is off the grid for me. Neither Garver or Turner cuts it for me in 2017, and maybe never. Sano gets a shot at 3B for a half season trial. I'm holding the coaches accountable for forcing Sano to show up early and take ground balls. If he fails, I'm not sure what I do, because Plouffe is gone and Escobar and DanSan are utility guys good for a month but not two months. Maybe I get lucky and Niko Goodrum has the light go on.

 

Other than the one-off for a starting catcher, I steer clear of FA transactions except for fringy types I can perhaps  eventually flip. As for trades, the other GMs know we have zero untouchables, but, for example, if you want a premium MLB player like Dozier, it will take a SP who projects as a #1-2, meaning a Dylan Bundy type, plus another low-level B+ prospect, meaning your version of Kiriloff, sir. I'm hanging onto Dozier over the winter absent an overpay, and then pitching him again at next year's deadline if circumstances allow for it. Which means we're out of contention, and Vielma and Gordon have sprinted out of the gates.

 

Next, I establish my reputation as an aggressive prospect-for-prospect trader. This is more for long-term results, not so much 2017, but I'm moving surplus at one level for slight upgrades in talent at lower levels. For example, I'm making room at AAA for Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Jorge, and Mejia. That means I'm shopping a few C and C- pitchers and looking for someone's C+ prospect one or two levels lower. This surplus includes guys like Hurlbut, Slegers, Wheeler, Eades, etc. In essence, I'm appealing to orgs with thin pipelines willing to pay me to help them add a body or two closer to being of help to them.

 

Hughes makes a quick and full recovery. His problem was a medical one. My rotation is Hughes, Santana, Berrios, May, and Gibson to start. Santiago is gone, and so is Milone. Duffey and Rogers are in the pen with Pressly, Tonkin, Chargois, and hopefully one other emerging prospect (Burdi?) and some other guy. Who am I missing? Doesn't much matter, since I've once again accumulated a bunch of this commodity item. Because I always will emulate the org's dumpster diving for RP's in the off-season, stacking candidates three-deep and then selling surplus at the deadline. I'm not worried about hurting the feelings of Zack Jones and Jakey Reed by leaving them in Chattanooga. If they want out, all they have to do is completely and thoroughly dominate the level for a half-season, and they get a plane ticket right to Minneapolis when I trade a couple guys at the deadline.

 

Okay, the DH/1B/Mauer problem. IF Sano fails at 3B, which I anticipate, then I'm watching the progress of Park and Vargas closely. Neither Palka or Walker will ever play for my club, and are prominent parts of my prospect-for-prospect discussions. I don't particularly like them, nothing personal. I give both Park and Vargas at least 70% odds of failing to emerge as above-average producers. I place the odds at 90% that Sano needs to be relegated to 1B at best. In any event, I'm sitting down with Joey and his mom, and his agent, and asking them to throw a number out there that would convince him to waive the NT clause. I'm already anticipating that mom says no, and I'll tell her that Joey has enough money already, so why don't you convince him to turn his reputation around by announcing he's donating the last $23M, or at least some really healthy portion of his contract to the Twins Community Fund, and that the Pohlads have agreed to match it, after much cajoling and urging by Mauer. I'd then softly whisper to her that, geez, the alternative might be that Joey gets cut rather unceremoniously at some point and mom's granddaughters carry daddy's somewhat sullied reputation with them to pre-school. Bottom line is, I don't have a fix for this logjam unless the players fix it for me via failure (Vargas/Park), success (Sano sticking at 3B), or converting the problem into opportunity (the PR thing).

 

So, the defense up the middle is improved, including on the mound to some extent. Other than maybe moving Grossman if someone like Granite can't be held back, now we wait to see if Jay is ready, if Stewart is what the scouts think he is despite the stats, if Gonsalves is for real, for Romero to explode onto the scene, for Jorge to take the next step, etc. If a couple of these guys come through, I'm dangling SPs at the trade deadline, always on the hunt for prospects in return.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm starting by inserting Buxton in CF permanently, sink or swim. He gets the full year and we live with the results. I insert Polanco at SS, again sink or swim for the full year. He doesn't fix SS defense, but he improves it. Then I put my sales hat on......

So, the defense up the middle is improved, including on the mound to some extent. Other than maybe moving Grossman if someone like Granite can't be held back, now we wait to see if Jay is ready, if Stewart is what the scouts think he is despite the stats, if Gonsalves is for real, for Romero to explode on the scene, for Jorge to take the next step, etc. If a couple of these guys come through, I'm dangling SPs at the trade deadline, always on the hunt for prospects in return.

 

I could live with this, but I worry greatly about Buxton at this point...

[Vanimal46]

I'm starting by inserting Buxton in CF permanently, sink or swim. He gets the full year and we live with the results. I insert Polanco at SS, again sink or swim for the full year. He doesn't fix SS defense, but he improves it. Then I put my sales hat on and talk to Jimmy Pohlad. I tell him he owes the fans this one. Once I get his approval, I sit down with Wilson Ramos and convince him he needs to come home and that he'll look regal accepting his HOF plaque in a Twins uniform. If he refuses, I say something disparaging about his mom and move on to Wieters, but one thing is certain, and that is I need to go outside the system for a solution at catcher. Suzuki is off the grid for me. Neither Garver or Turner cuts it for me in 2017, maybe ever. Sano gets a shot at 3B. I'm holding the coaches accountable for forcing Sano to show up early and take ground balls. If he fails, I'm not sure what I do, because Plouffe is gone and Escobar and DanSan are utility guys good for a month but not two months. Maybe I get lucky and Niko Goodrum has the light go on.

 

Other than the one-off for a starting catcher, I steer clear of FA transactions except for fringy types I can perhaps eventually flip.

 

Next, I establish my reputation as an aggressive prospect-for-prospect trader. This is more for long-term results, not so much 2017, but I'm moving surplus at one level for slight upgrades in talent at lower levels. For example, I'm making room at AAA for Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Jorge, and Mejia. That means I'm shopping a few C and C- pitchers and looking for someone's C+ prospect one or two levels lower. This surplus includes guys like Hurlbut, Slegers, Wheeler, Eades, etc. In essence, I'm appealing to orgs with thin pipelines willing to pay me to help them add a body or two closer to being of help to them.

 

Hughes makes a quick and full recovery. His problem was a medical one. My rotation is Hughes, Santana, Berrios, May, and Gibson to start. Santiago is gone, and so is Milone. Duffey and Rogers are in the pen with Pressly, Tonkin, Chargois, and hopefully one other emerging prospect (Burdi?) and some other guy. Who am I missing? Doesn't much matter, since I've once again accumulated a bunch of this commodity item. Because I always will emulate the org's dumpster diving for RP's in the off-season, stacking candidates three-deep and then selling surplus at the deadline.

 

So, the defense up the middle is improved, including on the mound to some extent. Other than maybe moving Grossman if someone like Granite can't be held back, now we wait to see if Jay is ready, if Stewart is what the scouts think he is despite the stats, if Gonsalves is for real, for Romero to explode on the scene, for Jorge to take the next step, etc. If a couple of these guys come through, I'm dangling SPs at the trade deadline, always on the hunt for prospects in return.

I'm with you on a lot of this. Only real difference is I'd like to find a plan B in case Buxton or Rosario fail to meet expectations.

 

In that case, one of D Santana or Grossman is gone, and Carlos Gomez is signed to a 1 year deal.

 

Early in the season I'd have a Rosario-Gomez-Kepler OF, and once Buxton finally clicks with the bat, he's up and either Gomez or Rosario becomes the backup OF.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not convinced Buxton starts next year in MN, are you?

 

He shouldn't be.  Not a fan of sink or swim options when he hasn't gotten any reasonable amount of high minors development. He's show twice now that he's going to sink.. That isn't going to change in an offseason.  I'd get a one year stop gap here.  2017 isn't likely going to be much better than a pretender type year anyways, use it to get Buxton ready for when the team will need him more.

[tobi0040]

I could live with this, but I worry greatly about Buxton at this point...

With Buxton, before we insert him anywhere sink or swim I want a new GM to bring in some outside development folks to look at tape and diagnose the issue with his swing. Then I want him to have all off-season, any sort of leagues in the off-season, and to start in AAA to rinse and repeat over and over again before he comes back.

[Doomtints]

"Sink or Swim" is a terrible plan for a baseball player.  If I were GM and someone recommended this approach for a player, I would probably fire the person.  Help the kids develop or get the heck out of the sport.

[bird]

I have a nagging suspicion that Buxton's adjustment problem is 75% in his head, and that even his pitch recognition problems and mechanical inconsistencies are greatly exacerbated by what's going on in his head. I can buy the position that he needs to fix this in AAA. If my field people earned my confidence and recommended this, I'd do it. I also have a nagging suspicion that he's closer to getting it than the stats show.

[gocgo]

 

I'm trading Dozier b/c he's gone in 2 years, and I'll take A+/AA pitching b/c I want better than Mejia type prospects. Teams with ace type potential pitching in the high minors aren't likely to unload it for the likes of BD... I'll stand corrected if they do, and be ecstatic about being wrong, but I think BD is more likely to get ML ready catching than ML ready pitching.

I'd do that if I'm getting back a catcher that is a defensive upgrade and will give me 20-25 home runs.

[old nurse]

 

I'd do that if I'm getting back a catcher that is a defensive upgrade and will give me 20-25 home runs.

I do not think you will get Posey, Perez or Ramos for Dozier.

[gocgo]

 

I do not think you will get Posey, Perez or Ramos for Dozier.

Offensively, Dozier's WAR is 4.3 - tied for 4th with Pedroia.  The highest of any of the catchers that you've listed is 3.9.  I know everyone beats up Suzuki and I'm not saying he's good, but his WAR is 1.1 while Perez is 2.2.  

 

Defensively, Suzuki's DWAR is .3 while Perez ranks the highest at 1.6.  Dozier is .5 while Pedroia leads the league at 1.4.

 

The point I'm not doing a good job of making is that replacing Dozier's defense is easy, replacing his bat is not going to be easy.  Therefore, trading him has to yield back something more than prospects that may or may not pan out.  You NEED to get back a Wilson Ramos...Damn that Matt Capps trade!...for Dozier or it isn't worth trading him.

 

Remember your goal as GM is to improve the defense while maintaining the offense.

[alarp33]

 

Offensively, Dozier's WAR is 4.3 - tied for 4th with Pedroia.  The highest of any of the catchers that you've listed is 3.9.  I know everyone beats up Suzuki and I'm not saying he's good, but his WAR is 1.1 while Perez is 2.2.  

 

Defensively, Suzuki's DWAR is .3 while Perez ranks the highest at 1.6.  Dozier is .5 while Pedroia leads the league at 1.4.

 

The point I'm not doing a good job of making is that replacing Dozier's defense is easy, replacing his bat is not going to be easy.  Therefore, trading him has to yield back something more than prospects that may or may not pan out.  You NEED to get back a Wilson Ramos...Damn that Matt Capps trade!...for Dozier or it isn't worth trading him.

 

Ramos is a free agent. The Giants aren't trading Posey.  So are you concluding they can't possibly trade Dozier since neither of those 2 will be options?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Offensively, Dozier's WAR is 4.3 - tied for 4th with Pedroia.  The highest of any of the catchers that you've listed is 3.9.  I know everyone beats up Suzuki and I'm not saying he's good, but his WAR is 1.1 while Perez is 2.2.  

 

Defensively, Suzuki's DWAR is .3 while Perez ranks the highest at 1.6.  Dozier is .5 while Pedroia leads the league at 1.4.

 

The point I'm not doing a good job of making is that replacing Dozier's defense is easy, replacing his bat is not going to be easy.  Therefore, trading him has to yield back something more than prospects that may or may not pan out.  You NEED to get back a Wilson Ramos...Damn that Matt Capps trade!...for Dozier or it isn't worth trading him.

 

it's kind of hard to predict anyone being "Wilson Ramos, 2016"....there aren't any catchers that meet your criteria, only a pitching package or OF package would at this point...

 

I understand why people don't want to trade good players....but that's about the best way to get good players back. It's one of the reasons the Cubs are sooooooo far ahead in the rebuild right now. Lots of great trades.

[gocgo]

 

Ramos is a free agent. The Giants aren't trading Posey.  So are you concluding they can't possibly trade Dozier since neither of those 2 will be options?

Oh heck no.  I said "a Wilson Ramos"...doesn't need to be Wilson Ramos.  I'd love to sign Ramos back into the fold, but guessing that will cost big money.  If we can trade Dozier for MLB ready pitching or MLB ready catching that will improve our defense significantly, I'd do it.  Polanco can play 2nd and we will take an offensive hit at that position, but if we can pick up a catcher to replace most of that offensive pop AND improve our defense, I'd do it.

[gocgo]

 

it's kind of hard to predict anyone being "Wilson Ramos, 2016"....there aren't any catchers that meet your criteria, only a pitching package or OF package would at this point...

 

I understand why people don't want to trade good players....but that's about the best way to get good players back. It's one of the reasons the Cubs are sooooooo far ahead in the rebuild right now. Lots of great trades.

Right.  It's not that I don't want to trade Dozier.  I just don't want to trade Dozier for an AA pitcher that may or may not pan out.  Not willing to pay 25-30 home runs for a roll of the dice.