Article: Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade

[beckmt]

Sanchez is far and away a superior pitcher to Liriano and the Tigers will almost surely try to extend him. Sanchez has almost no question marks surrounding him while Liriano is rife with questions.

Agreed and Turner was not a proven quanitity and had not done anything great at the major league level. Liriano is a two month rental. Escobar will give the Twins the ability to be a utlity infielder and not have to overpay Castilla for next year. I would rather have two options for that role rather than banking on one. Hernandez will help the Rochester ballclub in the short term. Maybe Bobby Cuellar will find a way to make him better. More interesting will be how Liriano and Blackburn do the rest of this year, and if the Twins should part ways with Rich Anderson and promote Bobby Cuellar.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I bet Liriano does better than Sanchez the rest of the year. Sanchez' first ever AL start bombed. He is a pitch to contact guy and these type of guys might work ok in the NL. Not the AL.

He's a pitch to contact guy? With a 9.6% Swinging Strike percentage in his career with three of the past five seasons over 10%? Wha?

[Thrylos]

He's a pitch to contact guy? With a 9.6% Swinging Strike percentage in his career with three of the past five seasons over 10%? Wha?

He has been pitching in the NL. When Pavano was pitching in the NL, he, too, was missing Ps' and light hitting IFs' bats at the same rate. When he came to the AL, those numbers dropped to where they are now... Unless you don't think that Pavano has been a pitch to contact guy. NL-numbers do not translate in the AL like that...

[DaveW]

Who needs facts when you can just continue to make things up as you see fit?

[DaveW]

Your using Pavano as an example?? Really? The guy that had like 100 ip in his first 4 years in the AL?

 

Can't argue with that logic.

[DPJ]

Who needs facts when you can just continue to make things up as you see fit?

I know of all people you did not just say this?

[snepp]

NL Pavano, in his 20's (prime K years), 5.9 k/9.

 

AL Pavano, post injuries, mid-to-late 30's, 5.0 k/9.

 

 

Looks like a pretty piss poor example to me, doesn't seem like much got lost in translation.

[Guest USAFChief]

If I'm the Pohlad boys, I can think of roughly 2 million rea$on$ to LOVE this trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He has been pitching in the NL. When Pavano was pitching in the NL, he, too, was missing Ps' and light hitting IFs' bats at the same rate. When he came to the AL, those numbers dropped to where they are now... Unless you don't think that Pavano has been a pitch to contact guy. NL-numbers do not translate in the AL like that...

Sigh. Do you really think Sanchez is going to magically lose 2.5% of his Swinging Strike % in the AL and turn into Scott Diamond?

 

Clayton Kershaw has a career 10.2% Swing Strike. Matt Cain has a career 8.8%. Zack Greinke is at 8.8% as well. Yovani Gallardo is at 8.7%. Gio Gonzalez is at 9.2%. Those are half the guys in the top 10 in Ks in the NL this season.

 

Anibal Sanchez is not a pitch to contact guy. It's just that simple.

 

And Pavano? Really?

[Thrylos]

NL Pavano, in his 20's (prime K years), 5.9 k/9.

 

AL Pavano, post injuries, mid-to-late 30's, 5.0 k/9.

 

 

Looks like a pretty piss poor example to me, doesn't seem like much got lost in translation.

Not K/9... SwStr%

 

his last 3 seasons in NL was in the 9-10s. Now is in the 6-7s

 

Sanchez' career K/9 is in the 7s... I bet it will be in the 5s in the AL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not K/9... SwStr%

 

his last 3 seasons in NL was in the 9-10s. Now is in the 6-7s

 

Sanchez' career K/9 is in the 7s... I bet it will be in the 5s in the AL.

Pavano being hurt for four years and generally sucking after his move to the AL had nothing to do with it, I'm sure. By the time he was effective and healthy in the AL, he was in his early 30s versus his early 20s dominance with the Marlins.

 

And Sanchez' last three years of K/9... 9.3, 8.0, 8.2.

[Dilligaf69]

Yeah, it was just a gut reaction because of a few things:

1. As fans we ALWAYS want stud players in return.

2. As Twins fans we know that Liriano still possess the nice ability to blow away batters.

3. Many of us were guilty (me!) of thinking that Liriano would bring back a nice prospect package.

4. I had never heard of either of the two prospects we got back.

 

But after reading up on these guys it appears one or both could eventually help out our big league club, and at the end of the day we were trading a guy who has posted a 5.31 and 5.09 ERA in the past two seasons, projection is great and all but at the end of the day results matter.

 

I still at this moment wish the Twins would have signed Liriano to a 2-3 year deal and I wish they could have fleeced some dumb GM out of some high upside 19 year old. Just because that didn't happen doesn't mean I'm ready to crap all over the orginzation and run Ryan out of town. These past two years have been frustrating but I have hope that Ryan can rebuild this club, its not going to come over night but once we hit the free angency we should have a better idea of his long term plan. Not to mention he still might be able to trade Pavano and Capps before August 31st (plus Span could be traded any minute now as well)

 

It's one thing to be dissapointed to lose Liriano for so little at the end of the day, its another thing to use it as some bizzarre justification to fire everyone in the org, but the majority of the people who are saying that have been crying about Ryan's leadership the whole year anyways, even going as so far as to making up reports/sources of him turning down trades that were never offered. Obviously I will sound like a ridiculous homer compared to that garbage, and frankly I am glad I do.

 

I feel the same way...good post!

[Thrylos]

Sigh. Do you really think Sanchez is going to magically lose 2.5% of his Swinging Strike % in the AL and turn into Scott Diamond?

Alright... Look at these links. Last column (SwStr%) :

 

Peavy

U Jimenez

Sabathia (check his line in 2008 while with the cheeseheads)

AJ Burnett

Josh Beckett

Cliff Lee (even though he has been declining due to age, his Phillies years are better than these 7s in the CLE years)

 

please add anyone else you want who went from the NL to the AL (those are some names I can think from the top of my head)

So that 2-3% drop I am talking about is not magic... it is very normal and usual and anticipated in these type of changes... check it out...

[Einstein]

Someone refresh my memory, when was the last time the Twins made a good trade?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alright... Look at these links. Last column (SwStr%) :

 

Peavy

U Jimenez

Sabathia (check his line in 2008 while with the cheeseheads)

AJ Burnett

Josh Beckett

Cliff Lee (even though he has been declining due to age, his Phillies years are better than these 7s in the CLE years)

 

please add anyone else you want who went from the NL to the AL

So that 2-3% drop I am talking about is not magic... it is very normal and usual and anticipated in these type of changes... check it out...

Peavy suffered multiple injuries.

Ubaldo peaked and was traded on the decline. There were concerns about him well before the trade and they proved accurate.

Sabathia was a beast during his run with the Brewers... an absolute monster. He wasn't that pitcher before and he hasn't been it since, though he's still very good. Crazy-good half seasons happen all the time.

AJ Burnett is a freakin' headcase.

Josh Beckett. Yeah, he saw a drop. A drop that he's slowly recovered (mostly) over the past two years.

Cliff Lee has only seen a 1% bump.

 

Either way, those drops do not equal "pitch to contact guy". Sanchez is a good pitcher. Not elite, but good. Even if he sees a drop in his Swing Strike (which he surely will), it doesn't magically make him a 5 K/9 guy. He'll probably end up somewhere around 6.5-7 K/9, which is just shy of Scott Baker territory (and not far from one of your examples, Josh Beckett)... Not exactly "pitch to contact". A middle-of-the-road guy. Not a ton of Ks but not a ton of contact, either. But you didn't say that... You called him a "pitch to contact player", which he definitely is not.

[Thrylos]

Either way, those drops do not equal "pitch to contact guy". Sanchez is a good pitcher. Not elite, but good. Even if he sees a drop in his Swing Strike (which he surely will), it doesn't magically make him a 5 K/9 guy. He'll probably end up somewhere around 6.5-7 K/9, which is just shy of Scott Baker territory (and not far from one of your examples, Josh Beckett)... Not exactly "pitch to contact". A middle-of-the-road guy. Not a ton of Ks but not a ton of contact, either. But you didn't say that... You called him a "pitch to contact player", which he definitely is not.

Alright...might be semantics and we shall see about Sanchez.

 

But my main point was that he is not a better pitcher than Liriano (or THAT much better, if he is) and the Twins have gotten nothing close to what the Marlins did. That's where this whole discussion was based. I think that Ryan should have done better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alright...might be semantics and we shall see about Sanchez.

 

But my main point was that he is not a better pitcher than Liriano (or THAT much better, if he is) and the Twins have gotten nothing close to what the Marlins did. That's where this whole discussion was based. I think that Ryan should have done better.

Peak for peak, Liriano is probably a better pitcher. But Sanchez is a much more reliable pitcher and I'd rather have him on the roster than Liriano.

 

As for thinking that Liriano might be a better pitcher for the rest of the season, I think there's a possibility of that. But when a team is looking to acquire guys at the deadline (guys they probably want to extend), they're going to take the consistently above-average Sanchez over the peaks-and-deep-as-the-Mariana-Trench-valleys Liriano.

 

And they're going to pay a lot more for that Sanchez-type player than they will Liriano. I'm as disappointed as anyone about this trade but it's hard to say what was available to be had. The Brewers didn't get that great a return on Greinke, either.

[Twinsoholic]

I like the trade. The Twins got two young players: a lefty starter who has good numbers in the minors; and, a fast young middle infielder, giving the Twins more depth there when they will likely part ways with Casilla and, perhaps, Floriman, and Nishioka might never return to the Twins roster. Liriano's numbers were abysmal this season. He did have a couple of good starts of late, but he was terrible in his last start. He will be a free agent, and the White Sox cannot get any draft pick compensation if he leaves via free agency.

 

Hernandez might be part of a deeper rotation at AAA next season, or he might be part of the Twins opening rotation. Hermson figures to be at AAA next season. Maybe Bromberg will be a starter there. Both Manship and Hendricks have good AAA starting numbers, so if one or both can transfer that success to the majors (as Diamond has done), then that should also be a boost for the Twins.

 

The Twins were not going to get a number one starter in return for Liriana (a rental)--that Ryan got a starter with such a good minor league track record and a slick fielding middle infielder is much more than I imagined he could get for Liriano.

 

So, to repeat: the trade does not look bad to me.

[Riverbrian]

Alright...might be semantics and we shall see about Sanchez.

 

But my main point was that he is not a better pitcher than Liriano (or THAT much better, if he is) and the Twins have gotten nothing close to what the Marlins did. That's where this whole discussion was based. I think that Ryan should have done better.

Did you consider the Tigers at all? The Tigers seemed to prefer Sanchez and Infante because that is who they traded for. I have no inside information... I'm just basing my comment on who the Tigers actually traded for.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Did you consider the Tigers at all? The Tigers seemed to prefer Sanchez and Infante because that is who they traded for. I have no inside information... I'm just basing my comment on who the Tigers actually traded for.

We should also stop pretending that Infante has no value. The dude is having a very nice season for himself and is signed through 2013.

[Klochner]

On the bright side, he could always suck in his start against the Twins on Tuesday, thereby making him an excellent Pickpointz selection.

[gunnarthor]

So basically we have two camps. In camp one are people who think Liriano is a good pitcher, on par or better than guys like Sanchez (many of these guys probably though Slowey was a good pitcher, too). And in the other camp are the realists. I guess its probably part of the awesomeness of baseball that the first camp seems bigger.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm hoping that when the whisperer said his goodbye to Franciso, he mentioned how hard it is for a pitcher to do well at US Cellular...

 

Here's to hoping we got a couple of mediocre prospects and helped the WhiteSox implode down the stretch....

[nicksaviking]

Is no one concerned that both of these non-prospects are now forced to take a 40-man roster spot? If any more moves are made and the Twins need to clear more roster space, now they have to lose another player just to keep thses two bums? There are a lot of expendable players on the 40-man, but if I had to decide who was the most expendable based on how they have faired in the minros and what thier ceiling is, Escobar would be the first guy I'd get rid of. This trade made no sense on so many levels.

 

Escobar is already in his second option year, next year is his last. So in 2014, the Twins will be putting him on waivers already when they need to replace him for someone who can hit.

 

Even if there were no better packages, and even if the Pohlad's told Ryan that in no way shape or form can Liriano be offered a qualifying offer (doubtful) Ryan's biggest mistake is clogging the already messed up 40-man instead of asking for younger developmental players.

[DaveW]

40 man roster issues are the least of this clubs problems moving forward, they will easily find spots for these two guys and there could even be more openings in the next couple days if additional trades are made.

[jorgenswest]

It all depends on Escobar's defense.

 

There are 14 shortstops with an OBP greater than .300. Only 16 teams are getting better than .300 from their shortstops overall. Many below the line are contenders. If he can defend like the reports suggest, he can start in the major leagues. At 23, he will likely follow a growth curve with his bat. Above average defenders at the shortstop position are not easy to find. Understanding of their value and impact on games is still growing.

 

We are really relying on the Twins scouts and their assessment of his defense which is the key to his impact on the Twins.

[Kneelb4zerg]

This post and most of the comments is nothing more than just a bunch of whining that Liriano wasn't worth more at the trading deadline. That's the best available return. Deal with it.

[DJSim22]

So basically we have two camps. In camp one are people who think Liriano is a good pitcher, on par or better than guys like Sanchez (many of these guys probably though Slowey was a good pitcher, too). And in the other camp are the realists. I guess its probably part of the awesomeness of baseball that the first camp seems bigger.

 

Basically you have two camps, the first which thinks the trade makes no sense so why bother, and the second camp who is stroking TR. Neither player received will likely amoun to anything, Escobar will be sent packing in a year.

 

And no, Slowey wasn't a good pitcher, had a crap attitude, and never was dominant on a good day. Extremely lame comparison.

[Thrylos]

So basically we have two camps. In camp one are people who think Liriano is a good pitcher, on par or better than guys like Sanchez (many of these guys probably though Slowey was a good pitcher, too). And in the other camp are the realists. I guess its probably part of the awesomeness of baseball that the first camp seems bigger.

Agreed.

 

We do have 2 camps:

 

The people who think that the Twins need major changes in order to win again and the people who are drinking the Kool-Aid and for them Terry, Gardy and StPaul are the holy Trinity or something.

 

http://thefranchisehound.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/KoolAid.jpg

[gunnarthor]

Agreed.

 

We do have 2 camps:

 

The people who think that the Twins need major changes in order to win again and the people who are drinking the Kool-Aid and for them Terry, Gardy and StPaul are the holy Trinity or something.

 

http://thefranchisehound.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/KoolAid.jpg

Cute