Mauer thread #765

[Brock Beauchamp]

If he has an .800 ops at this stage of the season, he is an .800 ops player.

 

If he has an .850 ops, then he is an .850 ops player.

 

Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time, the thing that matters when evaluating is where they end up.

Technically you're right, I'm only saying I don't label players in that fashion based on partial season performances.

 

If Mauer finishes the season with an .800 OPS, I'll be very optimistic about 2017.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Color me skeptical with Park still. A major league fastball is quite a bit different than a AAA fastball.

I'm skeptical as well but if his wrist was a legitimate issue, I think he'll be a fine player in MLB.

[DaveW]

Technically you're right, I'm only saying I don't label players in that fashion based on partial season performances.

 

If Mauer finishes the season with an .800 OPS, I'll be very optimistic about 2017.

It's more than 2/3rds of a season though already! It's not like we are talking about a SSS here or anything.

 

Even if Mauer slumps a bit and ends with a .775-.780 ops I think his potential for an .800 2017 ops still exists. My own personal opinion is that A smart and planned rest plan/game plan for Mauer will lead to these sort of results.

[DaveW]

I'm skeptical as well but if his wrist was a legitimate issue, I think he'll be a fine player in MLB.

I don't buy it being the reason why he was striking out so much. His wrist was fine enough to hit 450 foot bombs, the real issue I saw was his inability to hit a major league fastball. Once teams found this out he was toast.

 

Also, his AAA numbers look good, but his bb rate is pretty damn bad at only 5% in AAA, that is very concerning. Plus his k rate is above 25% in AAA (not a complete disaster, but it's concerning) with an ISO of .340 it seems to me that he is destroying crappy pitching, but struggling against AAAA or better pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If he has an .800 ops at this stage of the season, he is an .800 ops player.

 

If he has an .850 ops, then he is an .850 ops player.

 

Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time, the thing that matters when evaluating is where they end up.

And you quoted his OPS on the heels of a crazy hot streak, that pushed it to .800 for the first time in a month and a half.

 

If he finishes the season at .800, it will at least mean he reached the mark at 4 different points of the seasons, which would be better than the 3 times so far with gradually decreasing peaks (early season near .900, mid June at .826, now early August at exactly .800).

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's more than 2/3rds of a season though already! It's not like we are talking about a SSS here or anything.

 

Even if Mauer slumps a bit and ends with a .775-.780 ops I think his potential for an .800 2017 ops still exists. My own personal opinion is that A smart and planned rest plan/game plan for Mauer will lead to these sort of results.

Of course a .780 player can also hit .800. Nobody has a true talent at an exact number, it is more like a general range. And you'd be hard pressed to look at Mauer's post-concussion record so far and conclude that .800 is near the middle of his range right now. He obviously has the talent to do it, but the evidence just isn't there, not yet.

 

2016 is encouraging so far, in that it suggests 2015 was more at the low end of his range rather the new norm. But we're a ways off from expecting .800 to be the new norm.

[jorgenswest]

Mathematically it doesn't matter how he got to .800 or that it is a relative high point. As judged by OPS, his performance would be no different than that of a player who ended his season with .800 as the low point.

[big dog]

Joe's OPS the last 30 games is .905.  That's the unsustainable part.  .800 over a 2/3 season seems like a real number to me.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Comparing Nunez to Mauer is pointless, one is a guy with several great seasons, an MVP award and 3 batting titles and another guy is a career util player who had a breakout first half.

 

You're making several arguments and they don't fit together.  You can't argue "hey, he's at an .800 OPS right now, that's what matters!"  and then "Well, yeah, he's at an .850 OPS but that's not who he really is!"

 

We have a couple of seasons that say Joe Mauer is a .750 OPS player and much of this season has been spent around that number.  Can he be better than that?  Sure.  He can be worse than that too.  He's not locked into any certain OPS.  But you're using a very recent hot binge to suggest the last few years of evidence are in the rear view mirror.

 

I think some of us are suggesting that's a bit hasty.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mathematically it doesn't matter how he got to .800 or that it is a relative high point. As judged by OPS, his performance would be no different than that of a player who ended his season with .800 as the low point.

Ever hear of selective endpoints? Dave chose the endpoint of his "sample" and ignored the results of two previous larger season samples in drawing his conclusion. If I had posted Mauer thread #764 a week ago, would it have been fair to conclude that Mauer should now be expected to be a .736 OPS hitter? Not based on 2016, no. Same story, a week later when his OPS spiked to .800.

 

Even to the extent that .800 represents an upward trend over 2014-2015, the fact that it took only a week to create that "trend" suggests it may not be particularly meaningful yet at this point.

[jorgenswest]

It is not a selective end point though. It is the current end point. Going back a month would be selective. At the end of the season, coming back to this point would be selective. It might be a relevant select point if an injury were to occur. I am. It sure how whatever how his OPS a month ago would be a relevant selective end point.

 

Mathematically, there is no difference in a player who has a .795 OPS now and it is his low point of the season. OPS needs a large sample to be meaningful. Chunking it in month to month sets shows nothing more than random variation and has no meaning for a player's performance. It doesn't matter how he arrived at .795 today. Joe is no more likely than the other player to drop from that level in the next month. It isn't even enough sample to suggest that Joe is trending up or the other trending down.

[Jham]

 

It is not a selective end point though. It is the current end point. Going back a month would be selective. At the end of the season, coming back to this point would be selective. It might be a relevant select point if an injury were to occur. I am. It sure how whatever how his OPS a month ago would be a relevant selective end point.

Mathematically, there is no difference in a player who has a .795 OPS now and it is his low point of the season. OPS needs a large sample to be meaningful. Chunking it in month to month sets shows nothing more than random variation and has no meaning for a player's performance. It doesn't matter how he arrived at .795 today. Joe is no more likely than the other player to drop from that level in the next month. It isn't even enough sample to suggest that Joe is trending up or the other trending down.

Mostly agree.  Technically, Mauer's OPS is more accurate the further we go.  Since both numbers are percentages, the larger the sample size, the more curve's shape should plane out.  BOTH hot streaks AND cold streaks (and everything in between) are already factored into the number.  His prior cold streaks have already diminished the effect of his recent hot streak, and therefore been considered.  The only way to improve the accuracy as a predictor is to increase the sample size.  If we recalculated his OPS over say the last 2 seasons we'd probably have a much better indication of what type of hitter Mauer is now.  Which is to say, despite the recent power streak, the safe money is on Mauer's 2016 and 2017 OPS being well below .800.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is not a selective end point though. It is the current end point. 

Choosing when to select the current endpoint is, in itself, a selective endpoint.

 

Just as the "Mauer Outage" thread was a selective endpoint. I'm not bashing the article, as it was addressing the trend at the time... But (at least to my recollection) it did not draw a permanent conclusion about the state of Joe Mauer.

 

No one is rebutting Dave's statement that Joe Mauer is, as of today, an .800 OPS player in 2016. We're rebutting the statement that Joe Mauer is an .800 OPS player going forward.

[Dr. Evil]

I think his value defensively at 1B has really become an asset. He has a huge catch radius both receiving throws at 1B and fielding batted balls. Some of the plays he makes seem routine for him and would be quite difficult for a player of lesser stature. I also feel like he anticipates well defensively. He appears to understand what his pitcher has in mind and makes a lot of plays moving in to the play rather than reacting once the ball is batted(if that makes sense).

 

At the plate, I like it when he is more agressive in his approach. It seems like he settles for just doing his part in certain situations due to his humble nature. But, having said that, I do understand it's a team game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One big reason why I'm skeptical of Mauer being an .800 OPS player is how he's living and dying by his BB/K rates.

 

Month: BB% / K% / OPS

April: 18.9 % / 8.5 % / .893

May: 10.0 % / 22.7 % / .741

June: 11.2 % / 20.6 % / .596

July: 15.8 % / 10.5 % / .718

August: 16.7 % / 13.3 % / 1.633

 

Those numbers are all over the place. Is Joe a 15% BB guy and a 13% K guy or is he a 10% BB guy and a 20% K guy?

 

I'm unwilling to draw a conclusion about the future of Joe Mauer until I see how those numbers play out. He looked fantastic for the first five-ish weeks of the season but promptly fell off a cliff. Now he has rebounded... Which guy is he?

[Badsmerf]

I've been grateful to watch mauer hit like the mauer of years past. However, he's been bad for so long, that I'm still skeptical as well. You all keep referencing his past, but things change and the player he's been the past couple years isn't an .800 ops guy.

 

Perhaps he benefits more when guys are on base and opposing teams are unable to shift on him?

[jorgenswest]

I would use three years to project forward weighted by current year. OPS doesn't project well short of smaller samples.

 

I would never expect monthly data to be stable or even consider it. Sample too small. Wouldn't be meaningful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've been grateful to watch mauer hit like the mauer of years past. However, he's been bad for so long, that I'm still skeptical as well. You all keep referencing his past, but things change and the player he's been the past couple years isn't an .800 ops guy.

 

Perhaps he benefits more when guys are on base and opposing teams are unable to shift on him?

I don't think it's that easy. Outfield shifts are largely independent of men on base situations and that seems to be hurting Mauer more than anything else, particularly his extra base power.

[DaveW]

It's pretty clear to me that Mauer is much healthier than he has been in the last two years.

 

His BB% is back up, and his K% has dropped back down, those two numbers alone to me show that he is seeing the ball better.

His ISO is back to his career norms as well (up 30% from the past two years) this indicates he is making much stronger contact and yes, seeing the ball well again.

 

His BABIP is 20 points below his career norm, so "luck" isn't the reason why he is a .800 OPS guy this year.

 

His WAR in 2/3rds of this season has already equaled his WAR from the last two years combined.

In fact he is on pace for a 3.0 WAR season, which is impressive from a 1st baseman.

 

Currently he has the 11th best WAR for first baseman in the MLB. Ahead of guys like Chris Davis, Mike Napoli, HanRam, and Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Mauer doesn't get near enough credit around these parts and from Twins fans as a whole.

[Craig Arko]

Per Gleeman:

 

Rod Carew through age 33: .395 OBP, .444 SLG, .839 OPS

Joe Mauer through age 33: .394 OBP, .449 SLG, .843 OPS

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Per Gleeman:

Rod Carew through age 33: .395 OBP, .444 SLG, .839 OPS
Joe Mauer through age 33: .394 OBP, .449 SLG, .843 OPS

Interesting trivia, although less meaningful once one considers league/park context.  Mauer's career OPS+ is 128, Carew through age 33 had a 137.

 

Quickly eyeballing AL non-pitcher OPS, looks like it was .705 for Carew's career up to that point (1967-1979), versus .746 for Mauer's career to date (2004-2016).  7 times Carew saw a league OPS below the lowest point during Mauer's career to date (.708); 7 times Mauer has seen a higher league OPS than the highest point during Carew's career up to that point (.743).

[DaveW]

Mauer also played catcher for the majority of his career as well, I have no doubt in my mind that if he played 1st base or 3rd base those years his OPS+ would be significantly higher as well.

The Carew comparison shows us all that Mauer is well on his way to becoming a hall of famer, I think two more productive seasons after this one should seal the deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mauer also played catcher for the majority of his career as well, I have no doubt in my mind that if he played 1st base or 3rd base those years his OPS+ would be significantly higher as well.

I'd have some doubt about that.  I don't think switching positions would necessarily give a "significant" rate stat offensive boost.

 

 

The Carew comparison shows us all that Mauer is well on his way to becoming a hall of famer, I think two more productive seasons after this one should seal the deal.

 

I'm not sure the Carew comparison is particularly instructive on that front, as Carew's HOF case had very little to do with his slash line.

 

I still think Mauer has a shot at the HOF, but it probably will have more to do with how voters see his position (will they still think of him as a catcher) and what kind of catcher/concussion bonus/adjustment they apply.  A few more ~115 OPS seasons (where he currently sits in 2016) would make him a useful player but I don't know that they will change his HOF case much -- whatever they might do to help overshadow his 2014-2015 seasons, they may also lessen the perception of his past catching and impact hitting.

[DaveW]

 

I'd have some doubt about that.  I don't think switching positions would necessarily give a "significant" rate stat offensive boost.

 

 

 

I'm not sure the Carew comparison is particularly instructive on that front, as Carew's HOF case had very little to do with his slash line.

 

I still think Mauer has a shot at the HOF, but it probably will have more to do with how voters see his position (will they still think of him as a catcher) and what kind of catcher/concussion bonus/adjustment they apply.  A few more ~115 OPS seasons (where he currently sits in 2016) would make him a useful player but I don't know that they will change his HOF case much -- whatever they might do to help overshadow his 2014-2015 seasons, they may also lessen the perception of his past catching and impact hitting.

Him being off catcher almost certainly would have boosted his stats, there is a reason why he was the first catcher in like forever to win a batting title (not to mention multiple batting titles)

Also this:

 

 

Mauer has a JAWS right in line with the all time greats, he has a higher OPS+ then Berra, Bench, Carter, Pudge and Fish as well. Two more seasons like this one and he ends up close to Piazza in terms of WAR. It's not like the "hits" thing is an issue as well, most of the guys above him between 1900 and 2200 hits in their careers. Mauer should end up with somewhere between 2100-2300 depending on how much longer he plays.

Again, up until this point Mauer has definitely been a hall of famer, a couple more years like this one, and then maybe one last "halftime player season or two" and he more than seals the deal (hits the 2000 hit milestone, 1000 BB milestone, 1000 R milestone, 1000 RBI milestone)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Him being off catcher almost certainly would have boosted his stats, there is a reason why he was the first catcher in like forever to win a batting title (not to mention multiple batting titles)

I don't think the catcher position has seen an equal share of batting champ talent as other positions, only to see it held back by having to crouch all the time. MLB catchers are selected for criteria other than their bat, so you can't judge their bats under the assumption they should be equal to those at other positions.

 

That said, I am fine with judging his offense relative to his position, in which case he is easily one of the all-time great catchers. I just hope the electorate still perceives him as a catcher when he hits the ballot.

[DaveW]

The way I view it is this:

During his peak: 2006-2013 (7 seasons) Mauer was a catcher who had a .883 OPS (139 OPS+) won the MVP, 3 batting titles, 5 all star appearances and .327 avg, .410 OBP

 

Most certainly during his peak he was one of the best players in baseball, and one of the best 1 or 2 players at his position.

 

Now a couple years removed from his peak Mauer has turned into a pretty solid 1st baseman overall, not a great one, but when it comes to WAR he is ending up somewhere between 10-12 most likely.

 

Hall of famer all the way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree, he would be on my HOF ballot already. He is just a bit of an unusual case so I am not sure how to predict the electorate yet.

 

(I will note that as of today, he is down to 14th out of 22 qualified MLB 1B at Fangraphs. Back to the original topic of the thread, I am still not sure this season is ultimately going to be viewed as a plus in his HOF case, much less the next couple seasons.)

[Mike Sixel]

He is pretty far down there in cumulative fWAR at this point, for HoF player. 

 

I think he needs 10 more, at least.....that's going to be hard given his current production from the 1B position. 

[jimmer]

 

He is pretty far down there in cumulative fWAR at this point, for HoF player. 

 

I think he needs 10 more, at least.....that's going to be hard given his current production from the 1B position. 

To make the HOF, he needs to be top 5 for players who were primarily catchers? That's what 10 more would put him.  

 

I think the voters will also be pretty receptive to 3 batting titles (considering no other AL catcher has one) along with an MVP and leading the league in BA/OBP/SLG%. (along with the AS, SS and GG). tied for 4th in BA, 9th in OPS+.

 

5th in WAR7.  Top 9 are in the HOF except IRod, who will be.

9th in JAWs (right above the AVERAGE for catcher HOF). Everyone above, a HOF.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To make the HOF, he needs to be top 5 for players who were primarily catchers? That's what 10 more would put him.  

 

I think the voters will also be pretty receptive to 3 batting titles (considering no other AL catcher has one) along with an MVP and leading the league in BA/OBP/SLG%. (along with the AS, SS and GG). tied for 4th in BA, 9th in OPS+.

 

5th in WAR7.  Top 9 are in the HOF except IRod, who will be.

9th in JAWs (right above the AVERAGE for catcher HOF). Everyone above, a HOF.

 

so you think he's in now? I just see an awesome peak, but not as long a career at catcher. But, then, I'm no HoF expert, as I don't care that much about it.