Why hasn't Berrios been called back up?

[amjgt]

Well... after tomorrow night almost all of us can come to an agreement that Berrios should never make another start in AAA again.

 

At this point we are talking about 1 start and an August 2nd MLB start by Berrios would be right on 5 days rest.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because the point I have made since the start of this debate is that making a decision or taking action when you know that things are going to change is bad management practice.

That's assuming that things are going to change.  From recent Twins deadlines, that is not necessarily so. It is incumbent upon management to know the likelihood of that change, and if your reasoning is true, it sounds like Twins management is greatly over-estimating the likelihood of one of their starters being traded in advance of August 1st.

 

Also, you assume the only change is releasing a player which can't be undone, or a DFA/outright which might be difficult to undo.  The Twins could have sent Duffey or May to the minors weeks ago, and Nolasco or Milone to the pen if necessary, immediately opening a starting spot for Berrios, and leaving all options available to replace a different starter in the event of a trade come August 1st (Duffey or May recalled, or Nolasco/Milone back to the rotation).  That scenario hardly seems to describe a generic bad management practice worthy of reprehension, in fact it sounds like standard baseball roster moves that happen all of the time.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Would you agree Berrios is the better prospect than Duffey?

 

If so, why do you think lower level prospects should be allowed to or are more equipped to spend less time AAA and learn in the Majors than better prospects?

 

By my count, Duffey has thrown 116 innings in AAA, and Berrios is at 173.

 

Why is that ok?

Not only that, but both Berrios and Duffey were drafted in the same year. So, if Berrios is seen has a much better prospect, then why does Duffey get so much slack. Seems to me the Twins like Duffey a whole lot more than Berrios.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As others have pointed out, Berrios had 12 k's per 9 up here

An aside, but Berrios' case is a good illustration why strikeout percentage is better than K/9.  Berrios struck out 1 of 9 batters he faced in his last start in Detroit -- but K/9 only tells you he struck out 1 of the 2 he retired.

 

Berrios' 12 K/9 in MLB actually resulted in a slightly lower K% than his 9.52 K/9 in AAA this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

An aside, but Berrios' case is a good illustration why strikeout percentage is better than K/9.  Berrios struck out 1 of 9 batters he faced in his last start in Detroit -- but K/9 only tells you he struck out 1 of the 2 he retired.

 

Berrios' 12 K/9 in MLB actually resulted in a slightly lower K% than his 9.52 K/9 in AAA this year.

 

I agree with this......he could walk 5 guys, give up 3 hits, and strikeout 2 in .2 innings, and look great in K/9.....

[tobi0040]

An aside, but Berrios' case is a good illustration why strikeout percentage is better than K/9.  Berrios struck out 1 of 9 batters he faced in his last start in Detroit -- but K/9 only tells you he struck out 1 of the 2 he retired.

 

Berrios' 12 K/9 in MLB actually resulted in a slightly lower K% than his 9.52 K/9 in AAA this year.

Good call. K percentage is a better number than k per 9.

 

But his k percentage of 26.7% would be 12th best among qualified starters in the big leagues. Better than Arrietta, Kluber, Verlander, Price, and Sale.

 

For giggles:

 

Nolasco 17.4%

 

Milone 15%

 

Duffey 17.9%

 

Gibson 16.6%

 

Santana 17.2%

 

May 30.8%

 

 

Buxton did not have anything you could point to in his first stretch even remotely close to top 12.

[Kwak]

 

Different waivers.  Milone cleared non revocable outright assignment waivers back in May.  Revocable August trade waivers are different, and Milone would have to clear them separately in order to be dealt in August.

I should have added "...[moved] through the twins organization..."

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Apologies to the mods, not sure why my threads always cause such a stir.

[mikelink45]

 

The Twins probably aren't the last to consider a trade this year -- it's far more likely other teams are considering the Twins assets last.  Seriously, why would you pay even a dime to acquire Nolasco or Milone before you're absolutely sure you can't get anyone better before August 1st?  Especially since Nolasco and Milone are likely available any time up until September 1st...

 

It's a little less clear on the position player side, although teams have plenty of reason to wait on both Suzuki (Lucroy, Norris, etc.) and Nunez too.

Today there was a posting about the weakness in catchers with any OPS level and I think Suzuki is more of a trade asset than we have written about in this forum.  I also think Gibson could have some immediate value to teams like the Dodgers.  I love the idea of Nolasco and Milone going, but I do not restrict our trade options to those two. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I saw Berrios strike out 8 in 5.1 innings in Houston, how was that unfair? 

ERA of 10.20

BB rate of 7.2

WHIP 2.133

 

He was sent down to work out the huge ragged kinks in his game. He's 22.1 years old. Give him a break. See him in the show soon. No one has been mistreated here.

[tobi0040]

Today there was a posting about the weakness in catchers with any OPS level and I think Suzuki is more of a trade asset than we have written about in this forum.  I also think Gibson could have some immediate value to teams like the Dodgers.  I love the idea of Nolasco and Milone going, but I do not restrict our trade options to those two.

One would think you would start seeing moves if the Twins are going to be making multiple, 3-5 moves. It would seem logistically difficult to trade a slew of players on the same day. Negotiations with multiple teams, prospect discussings, paperwork with the league, media coordination, etc.

 

My gut says if we wait until the last day, we make at most two moves.

[alarp33]

 

ERA of 10.20

BB rate of 7.2

WHIP 2.133

 

He was sent down to work out the huge ragged kinks in his game. He's 22.1 years old. Give him a break. See him in the show soon. No one has been mistreated here.

 

He gave up 2 runs in Houston, the game I specificlly commented on , that does not work out to a 10.20 ERA.

 

When does Ricky Nolasco, the pitcher with the highest ERA in baseball since 2014 get to work on the huge ragged kinks in his game?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Apologies to the mods, not sure why my threads always cause such a stir.

It was a legitimate thread and question, one most of us are asking but can't answer.

 

In my opinion, it's completely insane that the Twins continue to roll out Nolasco, Milone, and Duffey but can't make room for Berrios.

[tobi0040]

ERA of 10.20

BB rate of 7.2

WHIP 2.133

 

He was sent down to work out the huge ragged kinks in his game. He's 22.1 years old. Give him a break. See him in the show soon. No one has been mistreated here.

It is really silly to look at a lot of these rates after four starts, especially since his last start was 2/3 of an inning and 7 ER. Kind of throws the numbers out of whack. Now before anyone calls me out for using his k rate in the thread, I was just pointing out that although his numbers were bad overall, the k rate was really good and Buxton in his first stretch and arguably still, does not have a stat you can point to that shows he is dominating in any aspect of his game.

 

After his first three, he had an ERA of 6.28, 12 k per 9, a bb rate of 5.03, and a WHIP of 1.57. Outside of the k rate those numbers are not good, but not to the point that you demote your best pitching prospect in about ten years bad. So he was basically sent to AAA because of a bad start, and has since been down for another 10 starts or whatever it is.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

He gave up 2 runs in Houston, the game I specificlly commented on , that does not work out to a 10.20 ERA.

 

When does Ricky Nolasco, the pitcher with the highest ERA in baseball since 2014 get to work on the huge ragged kinks in his game?

The game you watched in Houston was one game you watched in Houston. His ERA for the Twins so far in 2016 is 10.20 (17 earned runs in 15 innings).

 

I don't disagree about Nolasco. He sucks. Bring on the next example, he probably sucks too. That doesn't mean Berrios shouldn't have been sent down. He's done his work. Now it's time for him to come up, which he will in a matter of days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I should have added "...[moved] through the twins organization..."

I'm not sure that is true.  I think the waivers remain in effect through August 31st only if the player hasn't been outrighted yet.  Meaning we could have waived Milone in May, but elected not to outright him until a later date.  Once he was outrighted and later added back, I think the process restarts.

 

If what you are saying was true, then we'd see a lot more guys getting added and dropped "freely" from the 40-man roster May through August, after only clearing outright assignment waivers once.  And I don't think I've ever seen such a thing.

 

I can't find any clear confirmation of this, but I did find an example of Bill Hall, who in May 2012 cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA, then was added back shortly thereafter, only to have to clear waivers again to be outrighted in June.  That sequence of events seems to support my interpretation of the rule -- Baltimore would not have had to expose Hall to waivers the second time if the original waivers were still in effect.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/outrighted-to-triple-a-bill-hall-2.html

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/outrighted-to-triple-a-bill-hall.html

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

It is really silly to look at a lot of these rates after four starts, especially since his last start was 2/3 of an inning and 7 ER. Kind of throws the numbers out of whack. Now before anyone calls me out for using his k rate in the thread, I was just pointing out that although his numbers were bad overall, the k rate was really good and Buxton in his first stretch and arguably still, does not have a stat you can point to that shows he is dominating in any aspect of his game.

After his first three, he had an ERA of 6.28, 12 k per 9, a bb rate of 5.03, and a WHIP of 1.57. Outside of the k rate those numbers are not good, but not to the point that you demote your best pitching prospect in about ten years bad. So he was basically sent to AAA because of a bad start, and has since been down for another 10 starts or whatever it is.

Calling me silly for using stats on a small sample size, then using stats on an even smaller sample size is quite silly.

[jimbo92107]

Well, according to this, they don't think he's all that good yet.....

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/2016/07/22/berrios-continues-show-wings-hes-show-worthy/87458062/

After reading the article, I got the impression that Berrios is fantastic, but the Twins want even more out of him. I think they see him as a young Frank Viola. A bit excitable, but a world of talent. They want Jose's second debut to be a lot more successful than his first one, where he lost command and got shelled. A couple extra coats of polish doesn't seem unreasonable.

[Mike Sixel]

 

After reading the article, I got the impression that Berrios is fantastic, but the Twins want even more out of him. I think they see him as a young Frank Viola. A bit excitable, but a world of talent. They want Jose's second debut to be a lot more successful than his first one, where he lost command and got shelled. A couple extra coats of polish doesn't seem unreasonable.

 

heh, Viola was terrible his first year, but they left him up here to learn.....

 

Also, if your best pitching coach is here, I'd kind of want him here at this stage. As has been pointed out, now that he's not up already, we'll wait a week or so and see what happens with our nerd rage....

[jimmer]

 

Calling me silly for using stats on a small sample size, then using stats on an even smaller sample size is quite silly.

Is it as silly as someone railing against using WAR as a stat for pitchers and then using WAR as a stat for a pitcher a post or two later? :-)

[bird]

 

Well, according to this, they don't think he's all that good yet.....

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/2016/07/22/berrios-continues-show-wings-hes-show-worthy/87458062/

 

 

Thanks for sharing that article, Mike. It was informative and very specific about what they believe are the last couple of refinements he needs to make, and these are things that aren't evident from the box score. 

 

I see that some here think this explanation is somehow "dumb". Sounded pretty smart to me. And let's remember, the Twins don't exactly feel compelled to bring players up so "we" can see how ready they are. They're not going to be any more impressed with OUR opinions about a player's development than some of us are about theirs.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Is it as silly as someone railing against using WAR as a stat for pitchers and then using WAR as a stat for a pitcher a post or two later? :-)

I think you're mixing me up with someone else. And I don't frankly appreciate it. Anyway, go Berrios!

[tobi0040]

Calling me silly for using stats on a small sample size, then using stats on an even smaller sample size is quite silly.

You missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably my fault.

 

My point is that one terrible start can make your numbers look really bad over a small sample. His numbers over his first three starts were not so bad that he was going to be sent down and his k rates were encouraging. Furthermore, his BB numbers were not really ever a concern for him so they were not likely to continue.

 

Then he goes out and gives up 7 ER over two outs and is sent down for two and half months. So I conclude that he basically was sent down because he had one bad start. Chargois was sent down after one bad appearance. Meyer got one or two chances and was sent down. For a team that is going to need to rely on guys like this if they are going to compete in the next 2-3 years, this is really an inexplicable way of handling prospects.

[jimmer]

 

I think you're mixing me up with someone else. And I don't frankly appreciate it. Anyway, go Berrios!

I wasn't saying you did it at all.  Just a similar example.  Sorry if it read differently.

[tobi0040]

heh, Viola was terrible his first year, but they left him up here to learn.....

 

Also, if your best pitching coach is here, I'd kind of want him here at this stage. As has been pointed out, now that he's not up already, we'll wait a week or so and see what happens with our nerd rage....

Viola actually had 330 innings across his first two seasons at ages 22 and 23, with an ERA of 5.21 and 5.49, ERA+ of 82 and 79.

 

After what we have seen with the Twins, I think it is fair to question whether this front office would ever see a guy like that mature into the player he ultimately became. I mean, if the bar is a handful of bad apperances and you are gone, will they ever get 300 IP?

[Foghorn Leghorn]

It was a legitimate thread and question, one most of us are asking but can't answer.

 

In my opinion, it's completely insane that the Twins continue to roll out Nolasco, Milone, and Duffey but can't make room for Berrios.

Yep, it's pretty infuriating to be honest. This season is a stinker, play the young guys... Want more ticket sales? Who would people rather see Berrios or freaking tommy Milone?

My goodness Scoob, getting ridiculous now.

[tobi0040]

Thanks for sharing that article, Mike. It was informative and very specific about what they believe are the last couple of refinements he needs to make, and these are things that aren't evident from the box score. 

 

I see that some here think this explanation is somehow "dumb". Sounded pretty smart to me. And let's remember, the Twins don't exactly feel compelled to bring players up so "we" can see how ready they are. They're not going to be any more impressed with OUR opinions about a player's development than some of us are about theirs.

It is great to have high standards, but why have standards so high for a young prospect to break into the rotation but so low to stick around in the Twins rotation, i.e. Nolasco, Milone, etc. Ricky Nolasco has pitched 312 innings for the Twins and been just awful.

 

My personal take is that if you think the guy is going to be good and he is decimating AAA over a longer period of time, there is nothing left for him to do but prove he can at this level. To me that likely involves struggling up here first.

[DaveW]

Yeah, at the very least bringing Berrios up gives the casual (and more) fan a reason to watch/care about the game.

 

I can't remember the last time I watched a single inning of a Nolasco game.

[bird]

 

Dominating triple A. Not like our rotation is stellar, hoping he gets called up after either Santana, Gibson, or Nolasco is dealt.

 

 

I think you answered your own question here as to why Berrios hasn't been called back up, right? Almost all of us think Berrios gets the call when one of these guys, mostly Santana and /or Nolasco, gets shipped off.

 

I'm not going to get my hopes up about his starts in 2016, however. To me, he often looked shell-shocked last time around, and apparently still invites concerns by those who see him pitch with respect to his excitability and the quality of his stuff starting off a game.

[Major League Ready]

 

That's assuming that things are going to change.  From recent Twins deadlines, that is not necessarily so. It is incumbent upon management to know the likelihood of that change, and if your reasoning is true, it sounds like Twins management is greatly over-estimating the likelihood of one of their starters being traded in advance of August 1st.

 

Also, you assume the only change is releasing a player which can't be undone, or a DFA/outright which might be difficult to undo.  The Twins could have sent Duffey or May to the minors weeks ago, and Nolasco or Milone to the pen if necessary, immediately opening a starting spot for Berrios, and leaving all options available to replace a different starter in the event of a trade come August 1st (Duffey or May recalled, or Nolasco/Milone back to the rotation).  That scenario hardly seems to describe a generic bad management practice worthy of reprehension, in fact it sounds like standard baseball roster moves that happen all of the time.

If you think two weeks is any different than one week and if you think we have adequate information to drawn any hard conclusions, we will have to agree to disagree.  A demotion to the pen is also a blow.  My experience in what is granted only roughly similar circumstances suggests this is not just bad practice to mess with peoples careers (in a negative manner) with events on the very near that are very likely to impact the decision you just made.   Obviously, the situation can also change due to circumstance beyond control in professional sports but that's not the case here.

 

Would you want to work for an organization that acted with disregard for you and your career.  If you think the high profile guys you want to retain to care about how you treat their teammates, we again will have to agree to disagree.