Article: Commitment Issues

[wsnydes]

 

I remember not liking the trade, not because I had an opinion about the players involved, but because it reminded me of the Capps for Ramos deal, which sickens me yet today.

If I remember correctly, Capps at the time had very similar numbers to Jon Rauch.  I remember saying to myself that they just traded for a guy they already had.

[jimmer]

I don't think we can really say the Capps trade got us to the playoffs.  He was with us for two months, had only 27 appearances for us (only 27 innings), and we won the division by 6 games. No way the difference between Rauch and Capps for 27 innings equates to 6 wins.

 

Also, at the time of the trade (4 months into a 6 month season), we had lost one game in which Rauch had been brought in to get a save.  One game.

Edited July 13, 2016 by jimmer

[Steve Lein]

 

If I remember correctly, Capps at the time had very similar numbers to Jon Rauch.  I remember saying to myself that they just traded for a guy they already had.

 

Plus, Rauch had the sweetest entrance to close games in the 9th, ever: 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was meh on the trade when it happened. There was upside in Jepsen and he performed well in 2015.

 

With that said, Nick has a valid point. Why is Ryan willing to give up Hu AND Tapia for Jepsen but unwilling to sign a reliever to a three year deal in the offseason?

 

There's a cognitive dissonance in that approach and it really bothers me. As Nick pointed out, prospects are the most valuable currency in baseball, even more than cash.

[Rosterman]

We can argue all we want about the Ramos trade. It was a surprise, and even the throw-in of Joe Testa was more than enough for an okay possible closer (who still had contract left). 

 

But, yes, Ramos was blocked. And the Twins would've done the up-down with him for at least another season and then made him a backup and there was probably hope that the Twins would actually have another catcher in the wings by the time Mauer left fulltime behind-the-plate in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 (we had Pinto in the mix at one point - who is doing a-ok in the Brewers system right now). 

 

I don't really have a handle on how the Twins do teach.train.view their prospects. They seem to spend a lot of time in the lowly minors and then get a shot at AA, but the AAA roster always seems full of...dare I say...fodder.

 

I see the Twins carefully bring guys thru the system (again, to AA) and then they end up not going anywhere in the organization, or even baseball. 

 

At what point DO YOU make the call on a prospect. That they are just playing ball for you in the minors or truly will be given a good hard shot at the majors...and more than a quick call-up and then demotion. Especially when you see how anxious the Twins are to play those guys they grab from the cuts of other systems and give them a chance and playing time: Grossman, Kintzler, Boyer, Abad,  Fryer, Bernier, Centeno, Mastro, Boshers, Pressly, Graham, Ramirez, Pino, Martis, Perdomo, Vasquez, Marquis, Carson, Burroughs, Komatsu, Roenicke, Deduno, Walters, Thomas, Burton, Schafer, Neil Ramirez, Schafer, Robinson, Cotts, Thompson, Fuld, COlabello, Thielbar,,,and Mr. Nunez.

 

That's a lot of names in five years that the Twins turned to rather than young guys in their system that they drafted and were developing for major league play. More so that people that they brought north in the past five (mostly) dismal years to fill the lineup from the guys who scout high school and colleges. Maybe the Twins JUST need to skip the draft and turn all their scouting to discards from other teams.

 

Or maybe your sole reason for having "prospects" is to trade for good pieces, but not necessarily the best or what you really need to go forth into playoff land if and when that time rolls around.

 

And then we can have the whole argument about hanging onto players too long and getting nothing in return: Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan, Willingham, Delmon Young, Fien and Burton. It is a two-way street. You make your players available for pieces that you are missing in your own system (right now, catcher fer sure) and deal accordingly. You should be dangling Abad out there for a promising catcher who is blocked at the major league level for another team -- if that team is foolish enough to see that their own catcher won't be playing behind-the-plate for five more years and they may suddenly need this top prospect sooner rather than never.

 

I'm still just feeling the "total system failure" happening. The attitude that we will try to put a competitive team on the field for the least amount of money, market the heck out of an outdoor stadium that gives the "fan experience" to watching a game played, and the hopes that people will buy into the sport of baseball as fun, and not as a need to win-it-all, or at least show a need to try to win-it-all above and beyond telling people we are doing so.

 

Looking forward to the second half. But someone/s do have take a fall for what happened in the first half.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If I remember correctly, Capps at the time had very similar numbers to Jon Rauch.  I remember saying to myself that they just traded for a guy they already had.

Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster.

 

And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor.

 

I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.

[d-mac]

 

Let's give Ryan some credit, at least he learned not to give Jepsen a Suzuki/Hughes type extension after last year.

 

That hardly qualifies as credit worthy. 

[wsnydes]

 

Plus, Rauch had the sweetest entrance to close games in the 9th, ever: 

While very good, that's not even the best use of a Metallica song for entrance music.  That distinction belongs to a certain closer that went by the moniker "The Sandman."

[jimmer]

Just for fun.

 

In 2007, our rotation was 9th in the AL in WAR (11.7) with a 4.38 FIP in 967 IP. 

 

In 2008, our rotation was 9th in the AL in WAR (11.4) with a 4.32 FIP in 959 IP.

Edited July 13, 2016 by jimmer

[Steve Lein]

 

While very good, that's not even the best use of a Metallica song for entrance music.  That distinction belongs to a certain closer that went by the moniker "The Sandman."

 

I agree. But the whole experience of the video on the board and the song, was awesome. A packed Target Field when Rauch entered the game gave you chills.

 

Glen Perkins entering the game never had that same feel, even though he was a far better closer.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Steve Lein

[jimmer]

 

That hardly qualifies as credit worthy. 

Still waiting for the Suzuki extension of the extension. :-)

[tobi0040]

We can argue all we want about the Ramos trade. It was a surprise, and even the throw-in of Joe Testa was more than enough for an okay possible closer (who still had contract left). 

 

But, yes, Ramos was blocked. And the Twins would've done the up-down with him for at least another season and then made him a backup and there was probably hope that the Twins would actually have another catcher in the wings by the time Mauer left fulltime behind-the-plate in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 (we had Pinto in the mix at one point - who is doing a-ok in the Brewers system right now).

Ramos was not making any money at all and our 3rd best prospect, and the Twins had doubts about Pinto catching. History tells me when thaey have doubts about a catcher or SS defensively, they never play there.

 

In 2011 Mauer was 28, with seven more seasons at $23m per year. The prudent thing would have been to give Ramos 30% of the reps starting in 2011 or 2012 as Mauer was transitioned away from catcher.

 

Just an ounce of foresight would have prevented this.

[wsnydes]

 

I agree. But the whole experience of the video on the board and the song, was awesome. A packed Target Field when Rauch entered the game gave you chills.

 

Glen Perkins entering the game never had that same feel, even though he was a far better closer.

I always enjoyed Perkin's use of Johnny Cash's God's Gonna Cut You Down.  

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

A damning quote, and one I think is quite accurate.

 

I also thought the 2015 Twins were playing over their head the entire year. It was fun, but as has been mentioned here several times, it was also possibly the worst thing that could have happened to them.

 

I didn't like trading for a player like Jepsen. I didn't like that it was Hu whom was given up. Worked out well for one year, but it was the wrong year.

 

I'm generally the prospect guy, and don't like trading prospects, but as much as I hated giving up Hu, I get that you have to give up something to get something.

 

Jepsen has been a 'solid' MLB reliever for several years. I get that the Twins played above their heads most of last year, however, they had a shot to make the playoffs, so I can't criticize going after a bullpen arm. Even if they didn't make the playoffs, they were in the race until the final weekend. If this and If that, but they had a real playoff shot last year, even if it wasn't "real" in many people's eyes. They didn't give up one of their top 10 pitchers or top 5-7 pitching prospects to get it. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster.

 

And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor.

 

I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.

 

That was the only trade that I really, really was "upset" about. I didn't like the Hu/Jepsen trade, but taking a step back, it wasn't horrible. Ramos was easily a top 100 guy, a catcher no less, who had enough bat to DH and allow Mauer more time at DH, and he had already had some quality big league success, even if only 8-10 games. In other words, he was pretty much ready. 

[Steve Lein]

 

I always enjoyed Perkin's use of Johnny Cash's God's Gonna Cut You Down.  

 

Me too, just wasn't the same feel.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Just for fun.

 

In 2007, our rotation was 9th in the AL in WAR (11.7) with a 4.38 FIP in 967 IP. 

 

In 2008, our rotation was 9th in the AL in WAR (11.4) with a 4.32 FIP in 959 IP.

Nick Blackburn, pitching savior.

[jimmer]

 

Nick Blackburn, pitching savior.

Word

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The prudent thing would have been to give Ramos 30% of the reps starting in 2011 or 2012 as Mauer was transitioned away from catcher.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here.

 

I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm generally the prospect guy, and don't like trading prospects, but as much as I hated giving up Hu, I get that you have to give up something to get something.

 

Jepsen has been a 'solid' MLB reliever for several years. I get that the Twins played above their heads most of last year, however, they had a shot to make the playoffs, so I can't criticize going after a bullpen arm. Even if they didn't make the playoffs, they were in the race until the final weekend. If this and If that, but they had a real playoff shot last year, even if it wasn't "real" in many people's eyes. They didn't give up one of their top 10 pitchers or top 5-7 pitching prospects to get it. 

 

Don't disagree with any of that, really. It did work out as well as one could hope for the rest of the year, but it just was a move that sat between "unnecessary" and "not enough to matter" to me.

[jimmer]

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here.

 

I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".

baby steps, certainly :-)

[jimmer]

Also, Ramos hasn't exactly been the model of health since he's been gone either.  This is his 6th season away, this year will be his 3rd one with 90 or more starts.  In the 5 1/2 seasons, he's accumulated less than 10 WAR.

Edited July 13, 2016 by jimmer

[bird]

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here.

 

I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".

 

 

How ironic that, if we were to trade Mauer now, we'd have to settle for a middling relief pitcher.

[tobi0040]

That was the only trade that I really, really was "upset" about. I didn't like the Hu/Jepsen trade, but taking a step back, it wasn't horrible. Ramos was easily a top 100 guy, a catcher no less, who had enough bat to DH and allow Mauer more time at DH, and he had already had some quality big league success, even if only 8-10 games. In other words, he was pretty much ready.

The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.

Edited July 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[ThejacKmp]

The Twins were always going to trade Ramos since they understandably thought that it was a position of strength given the presence of one of the all-time greats at the position. People had a concept that they would eventually move Mauer to 1B or 3B or somewhere but it was expected that move was years away and that it would be a slow transition. Concussions are the worst. Ramos needed to play everyday so he became trade bait (same thing may happen to Polanco if the Twins remain committed to Dozier).

 

So it's not trading Ramos that is the issue, it's the fact that all they got was Fat Craps for him. Stupid Fat Craps.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.

 

I wrote several articles on how Ramos and Mauer could co-exist. 

 

Here's one, though I know I wrote about it several times: http://www.startribune.com/how-can-ramos-make-the-roster/89545302/

 

[ThejacKmp]

Also, while I have loved Chih-Wei Hu for years and was sad to see him leave, his upside is #3 starter right? And more likely he's a back of the rotation starter? It's sad that Jepsen fell apart but I don't think this is a "this will haunt the Twins" trade, more of a "oh well, we took a shot and came up on the short end of the stick" trade.

[drivlikejehu]

Jepsen had one really good year in his entire career. Then a few that were pretty good, and the rest not so much.

 

In 2014, Hu would have been justifiable for him. In 2015, that was too much.

[ashbury]

Hated hated hated the trade at the time. Hang on to your starting pitching prospects; you can always convert some of them to relief when the time comes. Trading prospects for any but the best relievers at the deadline is a mug's game.

[nicksaviking]

Jepsen's 2015 in TB wasn't particularly good. His K rate was plummeting and his walk rate, FIP and WHIP were all rising. He had one really nice year in LA and a couple pretty good ones.

 

The Twins struck gold when he put on a career best performance for them last year, but he had no track record of that kind of pitching prior and he was on the wrong side of 30. At the time of the trade the Twins really should have had no illusions about what kind of pitcher he was and where his numbers were trending.

 

I mean in isolation, if his ERA had matched his FIP of 4.19 along with the high 4.3 BB/9 and the poor-for-a-reliever 7.3K/9, wouldn't he look closer to a DFA candidate than a get-another-team's-top-15-prospect candidate?