Trading Dozier Redux

[Brandon Warne]

 

Well enjoy 20 years of bad baseball then.
I don't know what team you are watching, but this team is awful and is going nowhere soon.

 

Uh, OK. I guess we're going to ignore a. that last year ever happened and b. that this team still has some pretty good, young players. 

 

I get that you're using hyperbole, but c'mon now. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

The Twins have stumbled along for five years now in a half@ssed "rebuild" based almost entirely on acquiring a few veteran mediocrities while mostly just losing games and waiting for prospects to mature despite sometimes making decisions that indicate a low priority being placed on that maturation process.

 

To show for that strategy the Twins currently have the worst record in the A.L. and a negative run differential more than twice as low as that of the next worse team.

 

Other than a still highly-rated minor league system that has yet to deliver on its promise, the Minnesota Twins organization stands in utter ruin at the moment.

 

If muttering about contending while waiting for homegrown youngsters to flourish and shuffling veteran placeholders in and out has been an utterly predictable failure as a strategy for half a decade, what indication is there that it's about to succeed now?

 

Half assed rebuild? They signed Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia while putting together some decent drafts. Regardless, you can't rebuild now with where Sano and Buxton are. You need to be in talent acquisition mode, i.e. actually doing something in FA to surround your young players while they're cheap.

 

Tearing it down now would be.....not wise. Rip down anything not attached to the wall, sure....but rebuild? NO.

[jorgenswest]

I don't have confidence that Molitor and Ryan are the pair to pull it off, but the Twins have the core of players to turn it around quick. The keys of course are Berrios, Sano and Buxton. All have the reasonable upside to be very good next year. If that happens, they have enough other pieces for the foundation on offense. They do need to tear down the bullpen and rebuild. That can start happening today.

 

Dozier can absolutely be a key piece of the next competitive Twins team. Any return has to be a key piece of the 2017 team.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Half assed rebuild? They signed Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia while putting together some decent drafts. Regardless, you can't rebuild now with where Sano and Buxton are. You need to be in talent acquisition mode, i.e. actually doing something in FA to surround your young players while they're cheap.

 

Tearing it down now would be.....not wise. Rip down anything not attached to the wall, sure....but rebuild? NO.

 

The Twins organization is in such disarray that the typical concepts don't even apply . . . what is a "rebuild" when a team can't get anything significant for its veteran players? 

 

The Twins don't have enough talent to "surround [their] young players" with. They have no rotation, no bullpen, half an infield or so, no outfield to speak of, and no catching. There is nothing they can do in free agency to fix the extreme shortfall of MLB or truly MLB-ready talent in the organization. 

 

If you're going to hold that view, I'd love to see an actual gameplan for the Twins competing in 2017. Position-by-position WAR showing us a competitive team. Feel free to group the bench guys to save time. The Twins have $77 million committed, not including arbitration - make good faith estimates for those or non-tender them as you see fit. Pohlad has had a bout of generosity and given you a total payroll limit of $130 million.

 

Let's see it.

[Obsvr]

 

The Twins organization is in such disarray that the typical concepts don't even apply . . . what is a "rebuild" when a team can't get anything significant for its veteran players? 

 

The Twins don't have enough talent to "surround [their] young players" with. They have no rotation, no bullpen, half an infield or so, no outfield to speak of, and no catching. There is nothing they can do in free agency to fix the extreme shortfall of MLB or truly MLB-ready talent in the organization. 

 

If you're going to hold that view, I'd love to see an actual gameplan for the Twins competing in 2017. Position-by-position WAR showing us a competitive team. Feel free to group the bench guys to save time. The Twins have $77 million committed, not including arbitration - make good faith estimates for those or non-tender them as you see fit. Pohlad has had a bout of generosity and given you a total payroll limit of $130 million.

 

Let's see it.

 

My take...

 

Unless they have a handful of players have career years next year, they aren't going to compete.  Total system failure doesn't necessarily mean catastrophic failure.  There are definitely potential pieces in place, but I don't see them competing for another few years.

 

 

Right Field: Kepler seems to pass the eye test and has performed reasonably well enough to be given a shot the rest of this year and the start of next year.  Seems to have a high upside.  I would think a career year for him would be .330 avg, 30 hr's, 100 RBI.  I think he settles in to a .290 career hitter that averages 15-20 hr's a year. 

 

Center:  Buxton is the guy.  He started slowly at every level but eventually figured it out.  The learning curve for him at this level is obviously going to be longer than lower levels.  I tend to think he's going to develop into a solid player.  

 

Left: Definitely need an upgrade here with a veteran with some pop.  Grossman, Walker, and/or Palka are not the answer.  At least not for 2017.  Palka does seem interesting but needs more evaluation.  

 

First Base: Mauer isnt going anywhere for two years

 

2nd Base: Dozier also isn't going anywhere.

 

Short: Polanco?  If his defense is good enough, his bat makes him an intriguing possibility.  So long as Buxton and Kepler grow, i'm fine with a SS that plays great defense and cant hit.  Vielma maybe?

 

3rd Base: Sano

 

Catcher: No idea what you replace Suzuki with.  JRM might be the guy, but I tend to think there is a reason the yankees gave him up for Aaron Hicks.   

 

Pitching staff is a disaster...too hard to speculate halfway through this season about what to do with it next season.  Depends on who finishes strong in the minors and who's available in FA.  Berrios will be up full time next year.  Gibson, Santana (if they dont trade him) are locks.  Beyond that...it's anybody's guess.  The pen...probably a mix of homegrown talent and FA's.

 

 

2016 was supposed to be "the year".  Well, here we are.  They probably shouldn't have put a timeframe on it, but aside from last year, all they had to sell was hope for the future.  This is your team for the next few years.  TR has handicapped himself pretty well and to blow it all up now is essentially admitting failure (which maybe the Pohlads will do).  Spending an absurd amount of money to fill the holes is possible but not likely.  

 

When Mauer's contract expires, that will free up a fair amount of money...so one would hope that the youngsters continue to develop and in two years they can take the money locked up with Mauer and spread it around to fill some holes.

 

 

 

 

 

[LaBombo]

 

Very unlikely TR will trade anyone in position to help win in 2016, with the exception of Plouffe. Any return in a trade will need to help us in 2016, or the very latest 2017.

I realize that in this post, at least, you're apparently predicting what Ryan will do or not do, and not advocating for a course of action yourself.

 

That said, the question remains: Help win what in 2016? Enough games to lose only 100 instead of 110?

[ken]

Half assed rebuild? They signed Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia while putting together some decent drafts. Regardless, you can't rebuild now with where Sano and Buxton are. You need to be in talent acquisition mode, i.e. actually doing something in FA to surround your young players while they're cheap.

 

Tearing it down now would be.....not wise. Rip down anything not attached to the wall, sure....but rebuild? NO.

FA with Santana,Nolasco and Hughes also doesn't look like the solution. A complete rebuild isn't need, just need to realize that this rebuild isn't done.

 

Buxton, Sano and Polano are part of the rebuild. Replacing Dozier with a top 100 prospect and trading Dozier for another top 100 prospect should be part of the rebuild plan.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, OK. I guess we're going to ignore a. that last year ever happened and b. that this team still has some pretty good, young players. 

 

I get that you're using hyperbole, but c'mon now.

 

No team has gone from 100 losses to the playoffs. Only a handful have gone from 90. You really think they are going too improve by 40 wins in one year?

[Brandon Warne]

 

No team has gone from 100 losses to the playoffs. Only a handful have gone from 90. You really think they are going too improve by 40 wins in one year?

 

No, but I also don't think they're playing at their true talent level. Talent-wise this is a 72-75-win team. 

[S.]

 

No, but I also don't think they're playing at their true talent level. Talent-wise this is a 72-75-win team. 

So, instead of being ****ing awful, the reality is that they should just be normal awful?

 

This team is trash. That is this rosters true talent level. One good month last year does not change that.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm iffy on moving him. Do you move him AND Nunez? Do you move one or the other? Because I can't envision a scenario where you move both.

 

That leaves you with an infield of Polanco-Escobar-Sano, and a backup plan of.....Danny Santana? Engelb Vielma? James Beresford? 

 

That won't work. 

 

Why?  Won't work for competing this season?  That bird flew away.  

 

They got to play young players (Polanco is out of options next season) to figure out what they have.  I see no reason not to go with a Escobar/Beresford-Polanco-Sano IF right now.  Might beat the Dozier-Nunez-Plouffe one.

 

If it does not work, they deal with it during the off-season.

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

No, but I also don't think they're playing at their true talent level. Talent-wise this is a 72-75-win team. 

 

That's the same thing a good chunk of those 100-loss teams could have said. Usually teams don't lose 100 games because they played to their full potential. 

 

Going back to 2011, after this year the Twins will have a 6-season stretch where 70 wins was their 2nd best outcome! That is absolutely mind-boggling . . . this season is just the continuation of an indefinite period of complete failure, broken up by one fluky month.

 

Yet, magically everything will change once the Twins sign . . . Doug Fister? I'm still waiting to see an actual plan for using free agency to get the team into contention, or even close to it.

[dgwills]

 

No, he's not. Dozier has, once again, turned into an elite second baseman. Yes, he's streaky. That's somewhat unfortunate but he still posts the numbers.

The question isn't whether Polanco is better today; he's not. The question is whether Polanco + prospects are better in 2018, maybe even 2017.

And suspect that answer is "yes".

Even if Polanco + prospects is worse in 2018 you still want to make this move. We're not going to be a top level contender without real top of the rotation pitchers. There are going to be aces available in free agency in 2018 and the Twins need to get one. Dozier is not where we want the Twins payroll allocated.

[Mr. Brooks]

Uh, OK. I guess we're going to ignore a. that last year ever happened and b. that this team still has some pretty good, young players.

 

I get that you're using hyperbole, but c'mon now.

No, I'm not using hyperbole.

 

Generations of Losing happen in sports.

See the Pirates and Royals.

See the Lions and Buccaneers.

See the Clippers and Timberwolves.

 

 

Last year was a fluke so mathematically improbable that we'll probably never see it duplicated again.

 

Even if ALL the hitters reach their ceilings, you still need a pitching staff.

Since the Twins have shown they won't sign top of the rotation starters in free agency, our only route is developing them.

The only veteran on the roster capable of bringing back a prospect with ace potential is Dozier.

[Willihammer]

 

No, but I also don't think they're playing at their true talent level. Talent-wise this is a 72-75-win team. 

I would also be curious to know how you arrive at that figure.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want to believe you, but last year at this time we had a similar discussion about the "true talent" of the 2015 Twins, and how that value should guide their offseason plans. I definitely thought this team was on the upswing but in retrospect, shouldn't have put such blind confidence in youth to pull the "true talent" value upwards. Or at least, shouldn't have been confident that the upward pull of youth would overpower the downward pull of vets like Plouffe, Hughes, Perkins, etc.

[FargoFanMan]

The question here is do you trade dozier or not? I don't believe you do unless you are blown away which is the case for just about everyone on the roster. Will the Twins compete next year? I believe they can. In that question though I don't believe they can without a leader on the pitching side of things. A catcher you can get by with a Suzuki type. This team desperately needs a leader on the staff and we don't have that in the system at this point. Maybe one of the youngsters have it in them but I don't see it. I don't believe it's a matter of nitpicking who's better now or who needs to be traded for that or who needs a chance there. They need a leader. Doesn't have to be an "ace" as everyone always clamors for. This team needs a LEADER! Period! That's how you begin competing next year or at least make a run. I don't know who this guy is and I'm not going to attempt to explain it. Santana and nolasco are not that guy. Gibson still seems to be figuring out what he needs to do to get things done. The others are just trying to keep their jobs or gain a ML job. I don't like to bash TR for everything but one thing he needs to do is make that franchise changing trade. Myers for shields, why not? Kansas City would just be rising without that trade. Trade for that guy and sign him long term. The one thing I will bash TR for is holding on to prospects and never making that franchise changing trade. Whether that's changing a fringe playoff team into a WS contender( mid 2000's) or a team trying to find themselves to a playoff contender (now and near future). He seems content thinking that every prospect will develop. Sometimes you trade away a future all star. That's goin to happen. But does it help the team get over the hump to the next level is the question. We need a staff leader if we plan to compete next year and whoever needs to be traded to make that happen needs to be traded.

[jokin]

 

I realize that in this post, at least, you're apparently predicting what Ryan will do or not do, and not advocating for a course of action yourself.

 

That said, the question remains: Help win what in 2016? Enough games to lose only 100 instead of 110?

 

Can the Twins blow it both on the upside and the downside in the same season. Advocating for trading fixes that involve trying to win 10 more meaningless games, and finishing 15 games behind the White Sox for 4th place, instead of 25 games behind them... and thereby blowing the chance for the #1 overall pick next June is really pretty foolish thinking.

 

For marketing purposes, if the Twins want to sell season tickets for next year on "the plan", it's all about selling fans on the number of future stars in the making with more on the way, not patching a few more waiver claims and other castoffs in order to juice the present number of meaningless wins.

[LaBombo]

 

Uh, OK. I guess we're going to ignore a. that last year ever happened and b. that this team still has some pretty good, young players. 

 

I get that you're using hyperbole, but c'mon now. 

The 2015 Twins were outscored by their opponents. They had the 5th worst pitching staff in the AL by xFIP and the 2nd worst offense, along with a below average defense. And on the intangibles side of the equation, the guy most often credited (rightly or wrongly) with singlehandedly turning around the Twins last year is now retired.

 

If anyone is ignoring what happened in 2015, it's the people (including those in the Twins' front office) taken completely by surprise by the Twins being awful this year.

 

Few people foresaw 100+ losses, but the groundwork for 90 losses was laid while Twins' management took a postseason victory lap to celebrate breaking the .500 mark instead of addressing the team's glaring weaknesses.

[LaBombo]

 

Half assed rebuild? They signed Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia while putting together some decent drafts. Regardless, you can't rebuild now with where Sano and Buxton are. You need to be in talent acquisition mode, i.e. actually doing something in FA to surround your young players while they're cheap.

 

Tearing it down now would be.....not wise. Rip down anything not attached to the wall, sure....but rebuild? NO.

I guess the ambiguity of the word 'half-@ssed' and the quotes around the word "rebuild" were too subtle to indicate that I didn't feel that the Twins' actions constituted an effective reconstruction of the roster.

 

Speaking of ambiguity, I'm not following the whole 'rip down good, tear down bad' construct of your last sentence. Does that mean you feel that just discarding aging mediocrities is enough, as opposed to trading players with real value like Dozier and Ervin?

 

At any rate we agree that watching Josh Willingham decompose and Kevin Correia fizzle out wasn't much of a rebuild. But what I don't understand is this: how does the Twins' failure to rebuild then make it unnecessary for them to rebuild now?

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure I'd call it a true rebuild, other than finishing the one they started a few years ago.  You don't dump the young talent on the team, you just need to shed the vets that are blocking said talent or guys who won't be present when the young guys figure things out.  The only real 'rebuild' type decision at this point is more to do with Dozier who would count as a cornerstone piece but is also blocking Polanco. 

[HitInAPinch]

Pssssst.  NextGen Twins has already begun.

 

In order to make this successful, the Twins do need to hang onto some veterans.  The prime candidates right now are:  position players: Dozier and Nunez, pitchers: E. Santana, Gibson?  IDK. 

I don't see a real dominate personality there.

 

The things we've learned over the past few weeks:  Sano will be the primary 3rd baseman, Kepler in RF and steady improvement at the plate, Buxton in CF [making contact at the plate] and Rosario getting back in the swing of things, while providing far better defense than Grossman.

 

And there's more already on this team.  Yes, there will be an issue with some of the veteran players:  longterm contracts/low output.

 

I'd ping Mauer's agent and see if he would accept a buyout.  Hughes and Nolasco:  I got no real answer there.  DFA DFA and whatever pain there is to move them off the roster.

 

Of course, in that last part, it's not MY money in play   

[HitInAPinch]

Maybe I'll have to take that last part about money back.   My horoscope for today:

 

"You'll enjoy spending money today, although you'll be happiest if you can do it by yourself rather than have someone tagging along behind you. That's because you're in the mood to part with great slabs of cash and you don't want anyone asking any awkward questions or giving a sharp intake of breath when they hear the shop assistant telling you how much you've spent. But you won't go overboard, will you?"

[Jham]

A true rebuild would probably mean trading Sano, our biggest chip, buxton, who still has value, and Gibson. I'm not ready to blow things up that badly. It seems super obvious that the plan was to sign some big free agents to the pitching staff to stabalize things until may, meyer, duffey and Berrios arrived. The failure want relying on Hughes, or Nolasco, it was relying on unproven arms to take their place. Of course, that makes the vet signings look even worse.

 

I don't think it was a bad plan. Bad result for sure. I'm willing to see if this young core can developed into a winner before blowing things up. Ryan is taking steps. Why blow anything up now that we are just seeing kep, bux, sano, and soon berrios? Can we at least see if they can put a season together next year with more team than individual goals?

[LaBombo]

 

A true rebuild would probably mean trading Sano, our biggest chip, buxton, who still has value, and Gibson. Il goals?

This is just my take, but it seems like a down-to-the-two-b'fers, extreme makeover rebuild would see the franchise draw the no trade line in the sand at the Sano/Buxton/Kepler threshold.

[Jham]

This is just my take, but it seems like a down-to-the-two-b'fers, extreme makeover rebuild would see the franchise draw the no trade line in the sand at the Sano/Buxton/Kepler threshold.

Then I'd argue it's not a total rebuild. If those 3 are untouchable, we should surround them with talent and try to win. If they're not good enough for that, then they shouldn't be untouchable. I was in the no one is untouchable with this mess group, but I'm now willing to bank on this core and give them a shot. Although I'm very concerned that the core isn't good enough.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Trade Dozier? Not sure. Seems like he's the closest thing we have to a leader and universally liked guy on the team.

 

Dozier plays 2B exclusively. Polanco has always been one of the top prospects in this organization and is out of options next season. Polanco also plays 2B exclusively in the minors. So barring an imminent trade or moving Polanco to short, I'm not sure what their plan is for Polanco.

[DocBauer]

I know it's stating the obvious yet again, but getting Polanco some serious time at the ML level is of the utmost importance here. Is he good enough to replace Dozier and trade him in the offseason? With no more options after this season, can he be brought along more slowly as a utility player for the time being, at least to begin 2017?

 

While we can debate the usage of certain players, and the team won't actually acknowledge it, this team is in rebuild mode at this very moment. Kepler, Buxton, Grossman and Rosario are in the OF. Sano is playing 3B. Duffey is in the rotation, Berrios probably will be soon, Gibson is not old. Dean has had a shot, may get another one, and Wheeler will at some point as well. Chargois will be up, this time, hopefully, he stays. Rogers, Tonkin and Pressly are now bullpen fixtures and none are old, especially for RP.

 

There is still work to be done, of course. But the Dozier question really can't be settled until we learn more about Polanco at this point.

[kab21]

Trade Nunez, play Polanco at SS with Escobar as the utility guy. SS might not be Polanco's ideal position but this team should actively be looking for ways to be worse (trading Dozier) unless a great offer comes their way (a top 50 prospect at a minimum plus other lower level upside players).

[LaBombo]

 

Then I'd argue it's not a total rebuild. If those 3 are untouchable, we should surround them with talent and try to win. If they're not good enough for that, then they shouldn't be untouchable. I was in the no one is untouchable with this mess group, but I'm now willing to bank on this core and give them a shot. Although I'm very concerned that the core isn't good enough.

Well, there's not an official definition of rebuilding in MLB, but if there is a widely accepted one I can't see it calling for the removal of every player with trade value or all players with major league experience. Sano gone? Buxton and Berrios too? That sounds more like a purge than a rebuild to me.

 

That said, I share your concerns about the presumptive core. Sano could end up a one trick pony like Mark Reynolds or Dan Uggla, or a Three True Outcomes freakazoid like Adam Dunn. Buxton could take years to mature ala Carlos Gomez, or fizzle out and end up a rich man's Cameron Maybin. Berrios may prove the naysayers about his small frame correct and plateau at third starter. The bullpen prospects may not reward the all-in faith that the Twins have placed in them in recent drafts.

 

But again, I can't see even attempting to shop the headliner youngsters, let alone getting value in kind coming back to the Twins. That sounds to me like taking five new cards in draw poker.

[Jham]

 

Well, there's not an official definition of rebuilding in MLB, but if there is a widely accepted one I can't see it calling for the removal of every player with trade value or all players with major league experience. Sano gone? Buxton and Berrios too? That sounds more like a purge than a rebuild to me.

 

That said, I share your concerns about the presumptive core. Sano could end up a one trick pony like Mark Reynolds or Dan Uggla, or a Three True Outcomes freakazoid like Adam Dunn. Buxton could take years to mature ala Carlos Gomez, or fizzle out and end up a rich man's Cameron Maybin. Berrios may prove the naysayers about his small frame correct and plateau at third starter. The bullpen prospects may not reward the all-in faith that the Twins have placed in them in recent drafts.

 

But again, I can't see even attempting to shop the headliner youngsters, let alone getting value in kind coming back to the Twins. That sounds to me like taking five new cards in draw poker.

I guess my main concern is that if we see big jumps from Buxton and Sano and we've surrounded them with minor leaguers and stock piled even more prospects from outside the organization, and we've wasted several of their best years.  Then things go really well, and those prospects start to pay dividends just in time for Sano and Buxton to both want their money.  IF Sano and Buxton are as good as we hope, then we may not be able to afford one or both by the time we get the "rebuild" built, and we'll think, man if we just could have gotten those two kids some help...   IF they're not good enough to build around now, then we're fools not to consider trading them in a full rebuild.  Otherwise, we're banking on the guess/hope that they will slowly turn into MVP candidates 3 or 4 years from now which sounds a lot like the current system except we're replacing "veteran stopgaps" with "youthful stopgaps" which probably takes any hope of a "get lucky" contending year out of the picture for no apparent reason other than frustration and a borderline delusional belief that above average AAA talent years will somehow become MLB All-Star talent if allowed to take enough lumps.

Summation: If Sano and Kep and Bux are franchise players, it won't take 3 years to build a winner.  If they're not franchise players then we are very unlikely to compete before they become expensive and less tradeable, and they should not be untouchable now.  I don't see how surrounding the core with inexperience as they enter their primes does anything to move us forward.

So I'm a big fan of Polanco, but I can't say that I expect he'll have a better career than Dozier, or that he'll be better than Dozier next year or the year after.  I'd like to see him hit for a bit more power, which I think he can.  I won't trade Dozier while Polanco has options and I won't trade Dozier simply because Polanco is almost out of options.