The pursuit of a decent bullpen

[Mike Sixel]

Poor Terry. There were apparently not good options 2 years ago that could still be on this roster, and none last year either. There were no FAs or trade candidates, in all of MLB baseball. There were also no guys in the minor league system that Bill Smith built the last 4 years. None of this is Ryan's fault.

[Thrylos]

 

What? Kimbrel and Smith? I'm not even saying this in light of how hilarious that would look now, but you understand the assets that'd have been given up for those two guys, right?

 

Kimbrel and Smith after the 2015 All Star game would have had the Twins in the post-season last season.

 

Assets?  Are you sure that those assets would have panned out?  I am not.  The Twins have a lot of "assets" who they hope to contribute some time tomorrow.  If you are working for tomorrow, you will never have anything today, other than "assets".  

 

Walker.  Melotakis.  Chargois. Reed. Meyer.   (Rosario.  Arcia.  Plouffe.  Dozier. Escobar)

 

Assets?

 

I'd rather have Kimbrel and Smith, thank you.

[Vanimal46]

 

Guys, feel free to name names you would have added. The market this offseason was whack. 

Are we sure that last year's market rate for RP was an anomaly? It's possible that the market rate increased and the going rate could be $4-6 million for a reliever, no?

[twinsnorth49]

So TR decides over the winter the pen is good enough and full enough of bottled lightning to roll into 2016 and by May 6th has released, Fien, O'Rourke and Graham. 

 

WTF?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So TR decides over the winter the pen is good enough and full enough of bottled lightning to roll into 2016 and by May 6th has released, Fien, O'Rourke and Graham. 

 

WTF?

 

come on, every team releases 38% of it's bullpen by May. That's not that unusual. 

[Willihammer]

The prices weren't an anomaly, but relief pitching is a young man's game so building bullpens through free agency is a high risk / low reward venture. The Twins were smart to avoid the Bastardo and Sipp contracts in favor of Abad. Ditto Burton, Fien, etc. That doesn't excuse the extensions for those players or more importantly, the long-term trend of terrible bullpen performance going on 6 years now. In fact, I'd argue that nothing gives us clearer insight into the health of a franchise than its bullpen. Since good ones require so many arms, only an effective scouting, drafting, and developing apparatus can produce them, and in that respect the Twins have failed miserably for 6 years running.

[Blake]

 

I believe, in addition to free agents, you are also allowed to trade for bullpen help.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong....

The Twins traded for Jepsen last year and it was a rather expensive acquisition, all things considered.

[twinsnorth49]

 

The prices weren't an anomaly, but relief pitching is a young man's game so building bullpens through free agency is a high risk / low reward venture. The Twins were smart to avoid the Bastardo and Sipp contracts in favor of Abad. Ditto Burton, Fien, etc. That doesn't excuse the extensions for those players or more importantly, the long-term trend of terrible bullpen performance going on 6 years now. In fact, I'd argue that nothing gives us clearer insight into the health of a franchise than its bullpen. Since good ones require so many arms, only an effective scouting, drafting, and developing apparatus can produce them, and in that respect the Twins have failed miserably for 6 years running.

Exactly, this conversation completely sidesteps the teams almost utter failure in identifying and developing effective arms, not just cheap ones.

[Blake]

 

I was one of those who thought this was not going to be a good year in the first place. I agree, no one thought it would be worst team ever status, but I was not optimistic. The whole roster was a shambles coming out of ST, not just the pitching. You cannot try and hammer your way to a successful baseball season. And while I know that roster was set by Ryan, I think that in this instance we lucked out. Ryan would not have traded a couple blocking veterans for an arm or two he would have traded a couple more guys like Hu, guys with good upside, for a chance to go from 60 wins to 70 wins? But I also thought a Chargois and Burdi would be settled in by now. Picking up top end FA relievers is for good baseball teams. Not us.

Yes, I think you're pretty much right-on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The prices weren't an anomaly, but relief pitching is a young man's game so building bullpens through free agency is a high risk / low reward venture.

High risk?  Seems like the median contract among FA setup guys is something like 2/12 or 3/15.  I guess if you build your entire bullpen that way, it gets kinda pricey, but no one was arguing the Twins should do that.  There is very little risk in supplementing a weak bullpen with 1 or 2 guys at that price, though -- in fact, because we avoided that "high risk" of signing, say, Neshek for 2/12 in the 2014-2015 offseason, we wound up having to sacrifice Hu for the privilege of paying Jepsen 1.3/6.3 mil anyway.

 

 

The Twins were smart to avoid the Bastardo and Sipp contracts in favor of Abad.

 

Sure -- except that's only how the debate has been framed by those endorsing TR's bullpen strategy.  While ideally we wanted a lefty, we would have benefitted from bullpen reinforcements from either side the past few winters.  And those reinforcements would not necessarily have to exclude Abad.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins traded for Jepsen last year and it was a rather expensive acquisition, all things considered.

They were forced to trade for Jepsen at the deadline because they didn't sign anyone better than Stauffer for the pen the previous winter.

 

For that level of non-elite reliever, you have more leverage in an offseason trade -- see Benoit and K-Rod this past winter, very modest salary dumps.

[Blake]

 

Exactly, this conversation completely sidesteps the teams almost utter failure in identifying and developing effective arms, not just cheap ones.

Is the bullpen bad? Yes. Is the bullpen the only problem with this team? Not even close.

 

Let's say the Twins get some good bullpen help this year. The Twins are still going to fall on their face this year. Where does that leave the team next year? Instead of cleaning house they stumble into next year, once again.

 

Okay, okay, I admit I'm taking a leap of faith that the FO is going to clean house. 

 

Anyway, we can debate the "no help for the bullpen over the winter" all we want, but it still ignores the total system failure. (Personally, I prefer "debacle" but that's just me.)

 

I have to admit, this is an impressive season of failure by my favorite baseball team. 

 

However, next year, it will be 91 redux with Atlanta and the Twins in the Series. (I'm off my meds again, what can I say?)

[Blake]

 

Where this article misses the point is in thinking that getting lucky for two months on Abad, and 15 innings on Boshers, is reason to excuse lack of any meaningful effort elsewhere.

Good bullpens aren't one or two pitchers deep. There's no reason the Twins couldn't have added multiple options. Depending on Glen Perkins, only to get nothing from him, is an argument AGAINST Ryan's pen construction, not an excuse for the disaster it's been.

The bullpen is thin. That was going to be the case no matter how the rest of the team performed. That there are other problems isn't reason to excuse the offseason.

You won't get sympathy from me if you ignore the bald tires on your car, only to learn later you need a transmission and an overhaul too. The tires still blew and need replacement, and ignoring them was always going to come back to hurt you.

Likewise the bullpen. It's bad, and needed fixing.

About the whole tires thing: Putting Michelin tires on a Yugo does not magically turn the Yugo into a Ferrari. It doesn't even turn the Yugo into a Camry.

[HitInAPinch]

 

This... It is why I get tired of the spend/not spend debate.  The same people saying spend are the ones that wanted Sipp and Bastardo (to be clear, I wanted one of them too, or O'Day who from the sounds of things was never really interested coming here).  Sipp and Bastardo would be absolute disasters in the pen now, and there would be a commitment to keep them there, at which point we'd be castigating the front office for not dumping these guys and signing them in the first place.  And quite frankly, simply dumping them after committing millions to them isn't going to happen.

 

It might be an interesting experiment to see who was available and what they signed for.  Without looking at anything other than the big three RPs listed above, I'd be willing to bet that in general the results are less than stellar.

My rule of thumb for signing FA relievers:  never more than 2 years.  2 yrs with options?  OK.

After some success last season, I would have found it difficult to add large payroll in limited use areas, like a bullpen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is the bullpen bad? Yes. Is the bullpen the only problem with this team? Not even close.

 

Let's say the Twins get some good bullpen help this year. The Twins are still going to fall on their face this year. Where does that leave the team next year? Instead of cleaning house they stumble into next year, once again.

 

Okay, okay, I admit I'm taking a leap of faith that the FO is going to clean house. 

 

Anyway, we can debate the "no help for the bullpen over the winter" all we want, but it still ignores the total system failure. (Personally, I prefer "debacle" but that's just me.)

 

I have to admit, this is an impressive season of failure by my favorite baseball team. 

 

However, next year, it will be 91 redux with Atlanta and the Twins in the Series. (I'm off my meds again, what can I say?)

 

ah, the old "they weren't 1 piece away, so don't try to make it better" argument. It's one of my favorite excuses for not trying to be better or spend money.

[Blake]

 

ah, the old "they weren't 1 piece away, so don't try to make it better" argument. It's one of my favorite excuses for not trying to be better or spend money.

That's hardly what I was saying. Very disappointing to see that comment.

[Willihammer]

 

High risk?  Seems like the median contract among FA setup guys is something like 2/12 or 3/15.  I guess if you build your entire bullpen that way, it gets kinda pricey, but no one was arguing the Twins should do that.  There is very little risk in supplementing a weak bullpen with 1 or 2 guys at that price, though -- in fact, because we avoided that "high risk" of signing, say, Neshek for 2/12 in the 2014-2015 offseason, we wound up having to sacrifice Hu for the privilege of paying Jepsen 1.3/6.3 mil anyway.

 

 

 

Sure -- except that's only how the debate has been framed by those endorsing TR's bullpen strategy.  While ideally we wanted a lefty, we would have benefitted from bullpen reinforcements from either side the past few winters.  And those reinforcements would not necessarily have to exclude Abad.

Relative terms here. Boyer + Abad equals 1.3 WAR at 1/5 the price of Neshek. Yes they could have done both, but let's aknowledge the tremendous value there. Finding one or two diamonds in the rough to plug into the bullpen every year is maybe TR biggest strength as a GM. Rounding out the other 7-8 guys, not so much.

 

I look at the Hu trade, like the Ramos trade, as being forced more by that failure to develop internally a bullpen core, and not an unwillingness to wade deeper into free agency. Those pickups are always going to have marginal impacts when they work out, and clog the roster at significant prices when they don't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's hardly what I was saying. Very disappointing to see that comment.

 

apologies, then. but, when I read this part:

 

"Let's say the Twins get some good bullpen help this year. The Twins are still going to fall on their face this year. "

 

that's kind of how I read it. If that wasn't your point, I apologize.

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's hardly what I was saying. Very disappointing to see that comment.

 

But that was kind of your point, you doubled down on it 3-4 times by my count.  You're right that there are bigger problems and a total system failure, but we can also pick that system apart and focus on the mistakes in each part of the system too.  That's all this is.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Relative terms here. Boyer + Abad equals 1.3 WAR at 1/5 the price of Neshek. Yes they could have done both, but let's aknowledge the tremendous value there. Finding one or two diamonds in the rough to plug into the bullpen every year is maybe TR biggest strength as a GM. Rounding out the other 7-8 guys, not so much.

 

I look at the Hu trade, like the Ramos trade, as being forced more by that failure to develop internally a bullpen core, and not an unwillingness to wade deeper into free agency. Those pickups are always going to have marginal impacts when they work out, and clog the roster at significant prices when they don't.

 

They might not have done the trade had they called up Tonkin, and given him a shot.... called up Rodgers, and given him a shot in the BP. Put Meyer in the bullpen from the beginning....there were many options that they could have pursued, including signing some of the successful BP arms that year, which they did not do. 

 

I don't get the fascination some have with wins/$ spent......you don't get any glory for winning 70 games with a $50MM roster.....there was money to be spent last year and the year before, and they didn't.

 

In fairness......they might not have believed their lines that they were going to be good last year, and did not see the point in spending on the bullpen. That raises other questions, however.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins traded for Jepsen last year and it was a rather expensive acquisition, all things considered.

 

if they want cheap ones they should develop them better.

 

We haven't signed, traded for, or developed much in relief help for a long, long time.  Perkins is the exception, not the rule around here.

[ashbury]

I don't get the fascination some have with wins/$ spent......you don't get any glory for winning 70 games with a $50MM roster.....there was money to be spent last year and the year before, and they didn't.

Finding bargains has its place. The question is how the money that gets saved gets reallocated.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Finding one or two diamonds in the rough to plug into the bullpen every year is maybe TR biggest strength as a GM.

Really?  I'd guess most teams in baseball wind up with a cheap surprise performer like Boyer in their bullpen most years.  Biggest strength?

 

And unless you trust that reliever, or flip him for something, how much value are they really providing, even at a low salary?  As much of a "diamond in the rough" that Boyer was last summer, the Twins didn't trust him to be a top setup man in the final months and thus had to make the Jepsen trade to attempt to stay in the race. And then they let him walk for nothing.

 

 

I look at the Hu trade, like the Ramos trade, as being forced more by that failure to develop internally a bullpen core, and not an unwillingness to wade deeper into free agency. Those pickups are always going to have marginal impacts when they work out, and clog the roster at significant prices when they don't.

 

Well, Capps was acquired because Nathan was hurt, and as effective as Rauch was, the team wanted a "proven closer" down the stretch.  We still had an effective bullpen core of Guerrier, Crain, Mijares, etc. that year.

 

But Hu was definitely dealt because we decided to roll into 2015 with the following pen:

 

Glen Perkins

Casey Fien
Tim Stauffer 
Brian Duensing
Blaine Boyer
J.R. Graham
Aaron Thompson (or Mike Pelfrey, pre-Santana suspension)

 

And zero relief prospects particularly close to the majors.

 

We certainly failed to develop a bullpen core, but we already knew that the past two offseasons.  Still we made the decision to sit out the FA market, which cost us last year, and hurt us this year (even if that hurt was overshadowed by other failures).

[Blake]

 

But that was kind of your point, you doubled down on it 3-4 times by my count.  You're right that there are bigger problems and a total system failure, but we can also pick that system apart and focus on the mistakes in each part of the system too.  That's all this is.

Fair enough. I'm just getting what looks like too many people who think that had the bullpen issues been addressed, the team would be all wine and roses.

 

I probably would have been one of them, to be honest.

 

Anyway, this season has been a huge learning experience for me when it comes to 40 man roster construction, players development, etc. I was one of those who thought the Twins organization knew what they were doing.

 

Jokes on me.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Kimbrel and Smith after the 2015 All Star game would have had the Twins in the post-season last season.

 

Assets?  Are you sure that those assets would have panned out?  I am not.  The Twins have a lot of "assets" who they hope to contribute some time tomorrow.  If you are working for tomorrow, you will never have anything today, other than "assets".  

 

Walker.  Melotakis.  Chargois. Reed. Meyer.   (Rosario.  Arcia.  Plouffe.  Dozier. Escobar)

 

Assets?

 

I'd rather have Kimbrel and Smith, thank you. 

 

Great idea.  Give up your future for bullpen help on a team with a host of other needs for a team that  still needs to grow-up a deep minor league system.  Good god, no wonder some of  you have problems with everything the FO does.  I keep hearing the bullpen is not adequate for a contender.  No $#!%.  The problem with that logic is that this team was nowhere close to contending.  Every sports writer who cared to predict the standings projected the team to finish last in the division.  Yet, many of you want them to trade assets or commit to more long-term contracts.  I repeat, no wonder you have a problem with every decision.  You want it yesterday and rebuilding does not work that way unless perhaps you have a considerable revenue advantage.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Great idea.  Give up your future for bullpen help on a team with a host of other needs for a team that  still needs to grow-up a deep minor league system.  Good god, no wonder some of  you have problems with everything the FO does.  I keep hearing the bullpen is not adequate for a contender.  No $#!%.  The problem with that logic is that this team was nowhere close to contending.  Every sports writer who cared to predict the standings projected the team to finish last in the division.  Yet, many of you want them to trade assets or commit to more long-term contracts.  I repeat, no wonder you have a problem with every decision.  You want it yesterday and rebuilding does not work that way unless perhaps you have a considerable revenue advantage.

 

some of us want 1 (or maybe 2) year deals on FAs, or for Rodgers to have been promoted last year, or Tonkin to have been up last year, or maybe Meyer to start in the BP last year and be there.........not everyone wanted long term deals for RPs.....

 

How long should rebuilding take? I keep reading "you can't rush it"....but no one is willing to give any kind of "this is a realistic amount of time".

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fair enough. I'm just getting what looks like too many people who think that had the bullpen issues been addressed, the team would be all wine and roses.

 

I don't think anyone has implied that. Folks are critical of the offseason pen plan, but I don't think anyone is under any illusions that it is the only thing that has gone wrong for the Twins this season.

[Major League Ready]

 

some of us want 1 (or maybe 2) year deals on FAs, or for Rodgers to have been promoted last year, or Tonkin to have been up last year, or maybe Meyer to start in the BP last year and be there.........not everyone wanted long term deals for RPs.....

 

How long should rebuilding take? I keep reading "you can't rush it"....but no one is willing to give any kind of "this is a realistic amount of time".

 

Posters here keep saying how long as if it’s a sequential process.  It is going to take however long it takes for our prospects to contribute and eventually become the primary contributors to contending.  It took the Pirates and the Royals 20 years.  Both of those teams also got major components of their turnaround by trading away very good players.  The Twins did not have that opportunity.

 

I am not any happy with the state of the team either but I don’t stress over bullpen moves or free agents because I am certain its not the path to sustainable success.

 

You want some sort of time table you can put on your calendar.  When or will Buxton adjust and dominate at this level.  When will Berrios gain the necessary command?  When or will Kepler reach his expected ceiling.   When will Chargois dominate here like he is in AAA?  Many here thought Burdi was the best option we had in the bullpen when he was drafted.  How is that going?   Need I go on? 

 

They have a deep farm system.  If it comes together they are going to get better and better.  If not, it's going to suck to be a Twins fan for a long time.

[Rosterman]

Well, looking at the bullpen, and the team as a whole, there is not a lot of value there, except in some prospects, and you would have to batch a bunch of them together to get a longterm mainline player.

 

So you are in rebuild.

 

Which means drafting.

 

Teaching and training those guys you draft.

 

Supplementing them with players from other organizations, usually that 26th or 41st player, sadly, which isn't always a bad deal. A blocked player doesn't mean a bad player.

 

Start putting millions into a high yield interest bearing account.

 

Spend wisely when the time comes.

 

And find a way to to get some value from your 27th and 42nd players, or those that show promise but don't fit into your plans (are you going the Dozier way or the Polanco way, for example).

 

Praise the rebuilding. Make it fun. Get the fans involved. You never know what may happen!

[Mike Sixel]

So, basically, management has however long it takes, and there should be zero expectation it takes less than 20 years?

 

Some of us think 5 of 6 years with 90+ losses is enough time.....some don't. The difference is, some are willing to set some timetable, and some seem to think the FO should have their job forever?