Glen Perkins Out for Season

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

What he agreed to in 2014.... he agreed to take more money in 2014+2015 then his current contract paid him, a guarantee of $6.5 in 2016 (when the previous option was for $4.5)... and agreed to give the Twins 2 new years of control, for $6.5 + $6.5 or $700k buyout (option)... 

Sure, he got something good out of the extension. That's how they work. And the Twins got an all star closer locked in at 6.5m for 2017 and 2018 (or a buyout).  I'm not sure the risk/reward was big enough for the Twins to say no to that. Guys like Tony Sipp are getting better deals on the market.  

 

(Esp when you consider they probably have part of the contract insured).  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sweet, thanks for the tip.  You seemed to know exactly how Perkins felt based off your original response

 

However I don't think that describes what Perkins was experiencing.

 

I'm surprised you would need the hyperlink

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2016/06/glen-perkins-has-another-mri-on-shoulder-will-get-another-opinion-in-anaheim/

Fine, but Perkins was throwing bullpens. The experience you described was throwing anything over handed at all. I don't always jump to 1500 for Twins news so it does help.

[alarp33]

 

Fine, but Perkins was throwing bullpens. The experience you described was throwing anything over handed at all. I don't always jump to 1500 for Twins news so it does help.

 

Ok, thanks.  Next time I will try to be more exact when I throw out random comparisons to myself and Twins players, in case anyone thinks they really mean anything and wants to try to pick apart every word I wrote for accuracy.  

 

I was not surprised it was a torn labrum, I had similar symptoms before both of mine.  Does that work?

[bluechipper]

 

Fantastic? 
 

Perkins' first half in 2015:

 

2.30 FIP, 25.2 K%

That 2.30 FIP would rank him 13th among MLB relievers in 2015 and
that 25.2 K% would rank him 60th among MLB in 2015

 

If Perkins was fantastic, there were about a dozen or two more fantastic relievers in the majors in 2016...

I think it's ok to look at actual results sometimes instead of using FIP for every argument. A 1.21 ERA is pretty fantastic.

[alarp33]

 

Sure, he got something good out of the extension. That's how they work. And the Twins got an all star closer locked in at 6.5m for 2017 and 2018 (or a buyout).  I'm not sure the risk/reward was big enough for the Twins to say no to that. Guys like Tony Sipp are getting better deals on the market.  

 

(Esp when you consider they probably have part of the contract insured).  

 

The Twins were about to lose 90 games for the 4th straight year, and the potential "reward" was to guarantee the age 34 + 35 seasons to a 31 year old closer.  

 

Closers have a short shelf life, I don't see the value in that.  

 

We'll have to agree to disagree

[Badsmerf]

Too bad for Perkins. He's a great dude, and had a pretty good run. Hopefully he can come back and contribute in some capacity. Shoulder injuries are hard. I shared a locker room with him at the u, so I have always wished him the best.

[spinowner]

I tho

 

I'm not sure this is the contract to bitch about.  The Twins will be paying him all of 6.5m next year.  Obviously, there are risks to contract extensions and FA signings (which is why I'm generally against big FA deals).  But Perkins deal was pretty sound.  A team certainly could never make a commitment to players and make them all play year to year until they hit free agency but that seems unsound. 

I thought at the time of the extension that it was a good one for the Twins. He had emerged as a top-level closer in spite of being a lefty, and the calendar really wasn't that unfavorable. This is just an unlucky occurrence both for player and team.

I'd also like to ask whether Perkins' off-season conditioning regimen (whatever it was that he did or did not do) had any bearing whatsoever on this injury. My assumption is that there is no correlation, but I don't have time to research that.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins were about to lose 90 games for the 4th straight year, and the potential "reward" was to guarantee the age 34 + 35 seasons to a 31 year old closer.  

 

Closers have a short shelf life, I don't see the value in that.  

 

We'll have to agree to disagree

Sure, they lost 90 in 2014 but were in the playoff hunt in 2015 as well.  I'm not sure how well closers last.  Certainly some bullpen arms - Nathan, Everyday Eddie, Hawkins - pitched ok at 34 or older.  I just don't see how you can complain about getting an all-star closer locked in at a price that a journeyman reliever gets, even if its a few years out.  

[alarp33]

 

Sure, they lost 90 in 2014 but were in the playoff hunt in 2015 as well.  I'm not sure how well closers last.  Certainly some bullpen arms - Nathan, Everyday Eddie, Hawkins - pitched ok at 34 or older.  I just don't see how you can complain about getting an all-star closer locked in at a price that a journeyman reliever gets, even if its a few years out.  

 

He was already under contract in 2015 (and 2016)

 

Worst Case Scenario for NOT extending a 2nd time 3 years from FA.  He's a FA after this season.  If he had remained all star level, he may have commanded $10-12 million/year in 2017 + 2018.. That's either 1 less Tommy Milone the Pohlad's can afford, or a hell of a trade chip for a 20-45 team. 

 

Worst Case Scenario FOR extending a 2nd time 3 years from FA.  He gets hurt and misses the entire 2016+2017 seasons, making $13 million without pitching.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

The new TR seems constitutionally incapable of accepting surplus value from a deal...

[Vanimal46]

Will Perkins do what Gil Meche did all those years ago? Meche considered it unfair for the Royals to pay his $12 million salary knowing he was going to be out for the year and walked away from that money. Now THAT would be a stand up move...  

[nicksaviking]

 

So I was off by about 45 days....perk.JPG

 

Is there a problem with him waiting until now, hoping surgery wasn't needed? He's a human being, not a video game character.

 

I'd guess every one of us would try the rest and rehab approach if a doctor suggested there was a chance that we wouldn't need to be knocked out, cut open and incapacitated for months.

[gunnarthor]

 

He was already under contract in 2015 (and 2016)

 

Worst Case Scenario for NOT extending a 2nd time 3 years from FA.  He's a FA after this season.  If he had remained all star level, he may have commanded $10-12 million/year in 2017 + 2018.. That's either 1 less Tommy Milone the Pohlad's can afford, or a hell of a trade chip for a 20-45 team. 

 

Worst Case Scenario FOR extending a 2nd time 3 years from FA.  He gets hurt and misses the entire 2016+2017 seasons, making $13 million without pitching.  

Well, the worst case scenario is that the team would be out an all-star closer after he leaves.  You don't find one on the market for 6.5m so that's a bit disingenuous.  You end up replacing him with a Tony Sipp-type.  That's the risk/reward.  And a 13m "loss" against the potential gain - esp when insurance covers some, if not all, - makes sense for the Twins.  Whether the Twins will pay that money in FA is a different issue.  

 

(I know you didn't start this discussion but it is a bit irritating to hear that the Twins shouldn't extend a player and then hear they shouldn't have done a second extension instead and soon this will devolve into discussions on how the Twins should spend more money on free agency).  

[nicksaviking]

 

Fantastic? 
 

If Perkins was fantastic, there were about a dozen or two more fantastic relievers in the majors in 2016...

 

It's hard to believe there are 12 fantastic relief pitchers in baseball?

[gunnarthor]

 

Will Perkins do what Gil Meche did all those years ago? Meche considered it unfair for the Royals to pay his $12 million salary knowing he was going to be out for the year and walked away from that money. Now THAT would be a stand up move...  

Why should he?  He took the security of the deal knowing that if he didn't, he would make a lot more on the market.  And the Twins understood that, too.  

[alarp33]

 

Well, the worst case scenario is that the team would be out an all-star closer after he leaves.  You don't find one on the market for 6.5m so that's a bit disingenuous.  You end up replacing him with a Tony Sipp-type.  That's the risk/reward.  And a 13m "loss" against the potential gain - esp when insurance covers some, if not all, - makes sense for the Twins.  Whether the Twins will pay that money in FA is a different issue.  

 

(I know you didn't start this discussion but it is a bit irritating to hear that the Twins shouldn't extend a player and then hear they shouldn't have done a second extension instead and soon this will devolve into discussions on how the Twins should spend more money on free agency).  

 

Not sure I understand your worst case.  Where does Tony Sipp come into it?  They could have signed him to a contract extension now, during the 2016 season, at a higher price than $6.5 (like I said, $10-12).. if he continued pitching well, if he wasn't willing to sign that, they could have traded him for prospects.  They also have turned to a draft philosophy of picking multiple bullpen arms, so I would hope one of those would be ready to take the reigns in 2017. 

 

Unless I'm forgetting something, the next time Terry Ryan signs a vet to contract extension multiple years prior to that vet needing an extension and it works out great, will be the first. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is there a problem with him waiting until now, hoping surgery wasn't needed? He's a human being, not a video game character.

 

I'd guess every one of us would try the rest and rehab approach if a doctor suggested there was a chance that we wouldn't need to be knocked out, cut open and incapacitated for months.

Actually, Perkins didn't rest and rehab much last year, to the team's detriment.

 

It was about 10 months ago when they knew something was wrong and Perkins was removed from the closer's spot. What's a reasonable amount of time to try rest and rehab?

 

Not to pull out the salary card, but Perkins is pretty well compensated, and the Twins had already guaranteed his compensation during any surgery recovery period. Doesn't he then have a duty to more promptly report his injuries, and be willing to consider surgery earlier? I don't mean to sound cold, I sympathize with anyone who gets hurt, but I'd have a little more sympathy like you describe for a young pre-FA player, or a pending FA without a guarantee or safety net. As it is, Perkins trying to avoid surgery basically cost the Twins a year of his services on top of a presumed year of surgery recovery.

[gunnarthor]

 

Not sure I understand your worst case.  Where does Tony Sipp come into it?  They could have signed him to a contract extension now, during the 2016 season, at a higher price than $6.5 (like I said, $10-12).. if he continued pitching well, if he wasn't willing to sign that, they could have traded him for prospects.  They also have turned to a draft philosophy of picking multiple bullpen arms, so I would hope one of those would be ready to take the reigns in 2017. 

 

Unless I'm forgetting something, the next time Terry Ryan signs a vet to contract extension multiple years prior to that vet needing an extension and it works out great, will be the first. 

Maybe we're just talking past each other?  You said the worst case for not extending him is that the Twins just lose him on the market and don't get to sign a couple Milones per year.  (Which is strange, since they extended him for half that price yet we're complaining about it).  But that is not a correct measurement of the worst case - the Twins would be out an all-star closer and, for the same money for which they could have had that closer, they would get a journey man reliever.  Big difference.  Which is why the Twins made the deal.

 

How many extensions has Ryan given out under that criteria?  Perkins?  Hughes?  Redmond?  Do we count the Radke, Santana, Mauer, Morneau, Hunter extensions prior to their contract extensions?  

[nicksaviking]

 

Actually, Perkins didn't rest and rehab much last year, to the team's detriment.

It was about 10 months ago when they knew something was wrong and Perkins was removed from the closer's spot. What's a reasonable amount of time to try rest and rehab?

Not to pull out the salary card, but Perkins is pretty well compensated, and the Twins had already guaranteed his compensation during any surgery recovery period. Doesn't he then have a duty to more promptly report his injuries, and be willing to consider surgery earlier? I don't mean to sound cold, I sympathize with anyone who gets hurt, but I'd have a little more sympathy like you describe for a young pre-FA player, or a pending FA without a guarantee or safety net. As it is, Perkins trying to avoid surgery basically cost the Twins a year of his services on top of a presumed year of surgery recovery.

 

No, I do not believe any person has an obligation to have a surgery for their employer regardless of what they are paid or how it may effect the company.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe we're just talking past each other? You said the worst case for not extending him is that the Twins just lose him on the market and don't get to sign a couple Milones per year. (Which is strange, since they extended him for half that price yet we're complaining about it). But that is not a correct measurement of the worst case - the Twins would be out an all-star closer and, for the same money for which they could have had that closer, they would get a journey man reliever. Big difference. Which is why the Twins made the deal.

 

 

I am not sure it is that big of a difference when it is three years in the future. I suspect most all-stars with 3 years control remaining, especially those in the 30s, don't immediately get extensions beyond that out of a team's fear that they could lose an all-star in 3 years.

 

A lot can change in 3 years. Would you have extended Guardado when he became an all star? 2 years later we were able to get Nathan in trade for a spare part, Rincon moved to the pen successfully, Balfour came up, Crain was drafted and quickly came through the system, shortly thereafter we found Guerrier and moved him to the pen, etc.

 

Now the current Twins have more financial resources than those Twins. But I don't think extending veteran relievers who already have multiple years of control is the best way to leverage those additional resources.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, I do not believe any person has an obligation to have a surgery for their employer regardless of what they are paid or how it may effect the company.

That is fair. Didn't quite mean it to come off that way. But I think a pitcher who is getting paid to use his arm in a highly unusual manner is quite a bit different than a generic employee at a generic company. If an ailing pitcher really doesn't want to consider surgery in a timely manner, he can always retire and rest band rehab on his own time -- no one is forced into surgery. (I don't really think Perkins falls into that category, speaking more generally.)

 

It seems Perkins is trying to have it both ways too. Last year he was gutting it out, pitching through pain, risking his health for the team and the game. This year he gets bonus points for being cautious and showing consideration for things beside baseball?

 

But infinitely more than Perkins, I blame management for counting on him this year. That was an atrocious off season bullpen plan for a team hoping to contend.

[operation mindcrime]

So I guess next year will be Glen's last as a Twin!

[Vanimal46]

Why should he? He took the security of the deal knowing that if he didn't, he would make a lot more on the market. And the Twins understood that, too.

I would think a great stand up guy does his team a favor if he can no longer do what he's paid to do.

[bird]

 

Yeah, that's fair.  I am of two minds - one, he probably had nice value so a trade would be nice and two, the team thought he'd be good enough to be closing for their next winning team, was willing to sign a team friendly deal and showed the locker room the team wanted to keep its good players.  But really, only he and Span were above average players that Ryan could have traded.  Wonder what he would have brought back.

 

Neither decision would have been unsound assuming a fair return in trade. I personally would have opted to trade him back then. For someone like Wilson Ramos.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

I think it's ok to look at actual results sometimes instead of using FIP for every argument. A 1.21 ERA is pretty fantastic.

 

Reliever ERA is worthless.  If they come in with the bases loaded and two outs and give a bases emptying triple and strikeout the next batter, their ERA is zero.  That looks pretty fantastic on paper, however was an awful performance on the field.

[Thrylos]

 

So I guess next year will be Glen's last as a Twin!

 

That's pretty optimistic (from the Perkins point of view)

[Taildragger8791]

 

The Twins should be in the market for a closer this off-season, or let one of Chargois/Burdi earn the job this summer.

 

I'd say go out and get enough solid arms this offseason, including a closer, to fill out the bullpen so we don't have to deal with this crap again next year. Let them all compete, there's no reason to limit the job offer to someone internal. Chargois should of course get an early audition this summer.

 

I'm not making any plans that depend on Burdi or Reed though. They're both starting to look like long shots to contribute in the next year, if ever, and should be made to force their way onto the roster through sustained excellence. If they ever stay healthy and figure things out then we get to have a surplus, which is a good problem to have. I'm not into reserving 25-man roster spots for mercurial reliever prospects. That's what contributed to this bullpen mess in 2016.

[Bob Sacamento]

You'd much rather it be Tommy John than a SLAP tear.  A torn labrum is usually a death sentence for a pitcher, as Thyrlos posted the number of guys coming back from it are slim to none, go ask Mark Prior.  As one ortho surgeon buddy was telling me, it's like a vacuum effect with the shoulder, as soon as you go in, the "seal" is lost and it never feels the same again.  The sad part is that is no real way to prevent it as it's going to happen from doing the worst arm motion possible (throwing overhand).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It's hard to believe there are 12 fantastic relief pitchers in baseball?

yeah, 30 teams, 6-7 per team if the distribution were normal, you could expect 25-30 (top third of top half) significantly above average pitchers.

[jorgenswest]

Fantastic? 

 

Perkins' first half in 2015:

 

2.30 FIP, 25.2 K%

That 2.30 FIP would rank him 13th among MLB relievers in 2015 and

that 25.2 K% would rank him 60th among MLB in 2015

 

If Perkins was fantastic, there were about a dozen or two more fantastic relievers in the majors in 2016...

Yes. FIP takes 200 innings to be meaningful. He was 28 for 28 in holding saves. That is meaningful.