Article: The Benefits Of Badness

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting. 

 

Are the Twins not auditioning players right now?  The list:

 

Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Centeno and a host of players on the pitching staff like Duffey, Dean, Tonkin, Pressely, Rodgers.  Probably missing a few more.  MiLB players that were on the opening roster or added.

 

5 of that group played last night.

 

Granted, it's not a conscious effort.  It's a litany of players who somehow came out of Spring Training in less than optimal condition and ending up on the DL.  And others [or same] came out of Spring Training seemingly lacking skills on the mound or at the plate and field.  I still question what the hell happened there.

Polanco barely played when he was here, that's not an audition.

 

Centeno has started only 11 of 29 games since being called up, and in at least 3 of those Suzuki was held out with injury.

 

Also, not all auditions are equal (Pat Dean starting over Trevor May, for example, or Boshers over Chargois, etc.).

 

This was brought up in a recent thread about Pat Dean.  They've pretty much done the bare minimum for auditions so far, given the circumstances (mostly injuries to Sano/Santana and the health of Hughes).

[wsnydes]

 

Polanco barely played when he was here, that's not an audition.

 

Centeno has started only 11 of 29 games since being called up, and in at least 3 of those Suzuki was held out with injury.

 

Also, not all auditions are equal (Pat Dean starting over Trevor May, for example, or Boshers over Chargois, etc.).

 

This was brought up in a recent thread about Pat Dean.  They've pretty much done the bare minimum for auditions so far, given the circumstances (mostly injuries to Sano/Santana and the health of Hughes).

Kepler is only playing everyday due to injury as well.  He rarely played when he was first up.  Buxton came back up earlier than probably anticipated because of injury.  It's good that they're actually playing, but the FO's hand was forced.

[KGB]

 

Joe Mauer is a great player, but the experience of having him makes me leery of "investing" so much hitting talent in that position. It makes the management of the 25-man roster harder.

 

Getting 130 games behind the plate out of any one player is a challenge, and then you want your stud batter in the lineup for the other games, which likely means DH. That in turn means you can't carry too many "corner" types like we have now, vying for extra at bats at DH (or those corner positions); at DH it also means there's a temptation to carry a third catcher if the manager is paranoid about being caught having to have pitchers bat in case of a mid-game injury. There's also the worry of the stress of playing catcher wearing your elite bat down.

 

These are not insuperable obstacles, and of course you don't want an offensive black hole playing the position. But given a close decision, I would opt for another player, at a high first round pick, than catcher.

Agree, Mauer averaged 90 games behind the plate for his 10 year catching career and it looks like it took a toll on him after he moved. 

 

But Bryce Harper was a catcher before the draft and immediately switched positions.  So if he the best hitter in the draft, hopefully they look at the long term value not just a quick fix.

[TheLeviathan]

Good list.  I, like others it seems, just have serious doubts this organization will capitalize on any of them.  I hope they prove me wrong.

[alarp33]

 

I wish that I had your optimism that a move will actually be made.

 

I'm optimistic that this team does not have something like a 55-50 run in them to finish the season with respectability and save his job. I think the owners will be facing a near fan revolt after they finish with ~58 wins and will have no choice

[Platoon]

One additional benny.  Pretty tough to raise ticket prices or any other prices after a year like this.  Now whether you want to pay the current price to go is another subject.  Once could even make the case that they should drop ticket prices if they want to get people in to the park.

I hate to mention Reusse on here, it drives people nuts, but yesterday he said the rumor ar the park is 20% discount if you renew season tickets in August?

[Platoon]

Quick question, take out injuries and how many of the Twins youth would be playing regularly on the ML team? Replacing injured players with another player is not constructing a roster, it's plugging holes temporarily.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kepler is only playing everyday due to injury as well.  He rarely played when he was first up.  Buxton came back up earlier than probably anticipated because of injury.  It's good that they're actually playing, but the FO's hand was forced.

Yup.  Where they've shown discretion in crafting the 25-man roster so far is basically as follows:

 

Duffey over Milone

Kintzler over Fien

Grossman over Rosario

Centeno over Murphy

 

And within the 25-man roster:

Nunez over Escobar as starting SS

Dean over hobbled Hughes in the rotation

 

Plus Rogers or Boshers (presumably whoever isn't optioned when Gibson returns) over an extra bench player.

 

I guess it's better than completely standing pat, but in the number of moves and the priority given to guys like Dean and Boshers, it's not really what you want to see from a team that should be looking to the future.

[wsnydes]

 

I'm optimistic that this team does not have something like a 55-50 run in them to finish the season with respectability and save his job. I think the owners will be facing a near fan revolt after they finish with ~58 wins and will have no choice

I'm right there with you, even with the statement that they won't have a choice but to make a change.  I'm just not sure it'll happen.  

[wsnydes]

 

Yup.  Where they've shown discretion in crafting the 25-man roster so far is basically as follows:

 

Duffey over Milone

Kintzler over Fien

Grossman over Rosario

Centeno over Murphy

 

And within the 25-man roster:

Nunez over Escobar as starting SS

Dean over hobbled Hughes in the rotation

 

Plus Rogers or Boshers (presumably whoever isn't optioned when Gibson returns) over an extra bench player.

 

I guess it's better than completely standing pat, but in the number of moves and the priority given to guys like Dean and Boshers, it's not really what you want to see from a team that should be looking to the future.

Agreed.  Many of the moves that they have made would be reasonable if the team were competitive and being in the thick of relevancy.  Obviously, that is not the scenario so they make little to no sense.

 

Aside from being forced to due to injury, Buxton would be the most notable exception of a prospect being called up and actually playing.  This team is in a position where the notion of prospects coming up and playing every day should be the norm, not to exception.

[ashbury]

 

I think you need to accept the guy may only get 8-10 years behind the plate. But we have a huge hole at catcher that isn't getting fixed anytime soon.

You fix it some other way. And the attempt to fix it via trade of a center fielder, which thus far has worked out so badly, leaves me underconfident that the talent assessment at the position will be better at the top of the draft.

[tobi0040]

You fix it some other way. And the attempt to fix it via trade of a center fielder, which thus far has worked out so badly, leaves me underconfident that the talent assessment at the position will be better at the top of the draft.

Good catchers rarely hit free agency. Guys like Perez, Posey, etc. get money thrown at them early. The one's that do are typically older and get huge deals.

 

We have just not made the investment and it shows.

[ashbury]

But Bryce Harper was a catcher before the draft and immediately switched positions.  So if he the best hitter in the draft, hopefully they look at the long term value not just a quick fix.

That would be a different talent assessment, and a choice I could get behind. It wouldn't do anything about the perceived hole we have at the catcher position, of course.

[Thrylos]

 

 

4) Low-pressure youth auditions

At times, there are concerns about throwing a young and inexperienced player into the middle of an intense MLB race. The second half of this season will provide the Twins with an opportunity to ease any prospects in that they'd like to take a look at, with virtually nothing at stake in terms of wins and losses. This may be especially helpful with some of the system's minor-league bullpen arms, because the coaching staff really needs to get a handle on which ones are going to be able to help out in 2017.

 

The manager needs to be motivated to do that.  I am not sure that Molitor is that motivated.  The Polanco case in point.   He was with the Twins from 4/20 to 5/20 (one full month) and got 32 PA (the equivalent of 7 games or so).

 

Something's got to give.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I completely forgot that John Ryan Murphy was a guy. Weird. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Good catchers rarely hit free agency. Guys like Perez, Posey, etc. get money thrown at them early. The one's that do are typically older and get huge deals.

We have just not made the investment and it shows.

 

"Ahem?"

[bluechipper]

 

Quick question, take out injuries and how many of the Twins youth would be playing regularly on the ML team? Replacing injured players with another player is not constructing a roster, it's plugging holes temporarily.

That's usually how young players first get playing time. Eddie Rosario was an injury replacement last year, and since he played well, he stayed. Hopefully we see Buxton and Kepler show that they deserve to stay up the rest of the year this year too.

[bluechipper]

 

I'm just hoping there's a without question once in a generation talent like Strasburg or Harper in 2017.  If he's a catcher, even better.

Well hopefully there's 2 of those players. The Braves are going to be tough competition for that top spot.

[ashbury]

Good catchers rarely hit free agency. Guys like Perez, Posey, etc. get money thrown at them early. The one's that do are typically older and get huge deals.

 

We have just not made the investment and it shows.

I'm in favor of investment there. Perez, whom you mentioned, was not a draft pick, BTW. I hope they have success going that route. They apparently thought they had made some good bets with Garver and Turner, but neither one looks like will reach the level Perez is at. They should keep trying, by every avenue.

 

Posey's a good example of the problem, though. He plays significant time at 1B, and still misses a consistent 12-15 games a year, it being a league with no DH. If your catcher's playing 40 games a year at 1B, then you have trouble keeping a Brandon Belt type in the lineup and you have to push him out to a corner outfield position several games a year, at some cost to the defense no doubt. It's not unsolvable but it does put pressure on the roster moves you can make. And in the Giants' case nothing has gone wrong in the plan, at least in the seasons since the broken leg incident.

 

It's not that I want a bad hitting catcher. It's just that the investment choices needed to achieve a top hitting catcher are potentially as high as for any other position, and yet the payoff can be lower in terms of games actually played. If you are one of the teams with infinite resources, sure; for most teams, investment in one area comes at the expense of another.

 

Said another way, if you make moderate investments in prospects like Perez, or Garver and Stuart, and then one of them happens to become the best hitter on your 25-man roster, then that's the proverbial "nice problem to have". Investing in a tippy-top draft pick, with an eye toward having the best hitter on your team if he pans out like the scouts say, should not be at catcher, in my view, because then you are purposely taking on a "problem".

 

Finally, I freely admit that this means I probably would have picked Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer (absent the local-boy angle, at least), and it would not have worked out as well. That's the nature of investing in pitching, too. I still think it would be the right call, if my scouts told me they were approximately on a par with one another.

[gocgo]

 

I hate to mention Reusse on here, it drives people nuts, but yesterday he said the rumor ar the park is 20% discount if you renew season tickets in August?

While I can appreciate the marketing effort, the economics still don't add up.  You can get tix on stubhub for roughly at 50 percent discount.  Giving a season ticket holder a 20 percent discount may lessen the amount of money that he/she loses, but that's not exactly a selling point.  Want me to buy season tickets?  Offer to buy them back at the halfway point of the season if the team is under .400 winning percentage.

[Platoon]

That's usually how young players first get playing time. Eddie Rosario was an injury replacement last year, and since he played well, he stayed. Hopefully we see Buxton and Kepler show that they deserve to stay up the rest of the year this year too.

So why is that usually the way? Because the FO won't stick it's neck out to make a change? Monetary? Incorrect talent assessment? In essence this formula leaves an underachieving healthy team intact indefinitely!

[bluechipper]

 

So why is that usually the way? Because the FO won't stick it's neck out to make a change? Monetary? Incorrect talent assessment? In essence this formula leaves an underachieving healthy team intact indefinitely!

It has to be loyalty and giving the veteran the benefit of the doubt. Look at the Nationals, they're in a tight competition for the division and they're playing Danny Espinosa and his .637 OPS instead of giving Trea Turner an extended shot.

[tobi0040]

"Ahem?"

That draft pick was 15 years ago. The big contract was handed out six years ago, to a guy that should have moved off catcher a year or two later.

[jimbo92107]

At this point, the Twins should trade away every veteran except Mauer. Ervin Santana, Nolasco, Hughes - gone. Suzuki, Dozier, Nunez, Plouffe - gone. Abad, Boshers, Jepsen, Kintzler - gone. I'd also trade Tonkin.

 

None of these moves needs to return any significant prospects, tho they should be able to get something for a few of them. Doesn't really matter for the immediate future.

 

Mainly this is clearing the way for the next gen Twinkies. First, I'd promote as many decent pitchers as possible from Rochester. Wheeler, Darnell, Chargois, Wimmers, possibly Albers...but not Milone. Trade him, too. 

 

Then I'd promote the new infield, again mostly from Rochester. Polanco, Beresford, and since there are NO SS's listed on the AAA roster (!), grab a shocked and happy Engelb Vielma from AA as your slick-fielding, light hitting SS. 

 

Since I just remembered Escobar is fairly young and a good SS, that's a tougher call. They could trade Esco for some value to a contender, or keep him as captain of the infield. Either way Rochester gets at least one SS bumped up from AA. Ridiculous not to have a starting SS on a AAA roster. 

 

Let's see now...what to do with Murphy? He's still not hitting, so I promote Garver from AA to split time 50-50 with Centeno. Turner to AAA, all below in the minors get bumped up. 

 

Notice I'm leaving Berrios and Meyer in AAA. Throw strikes, kiddies.

 

Hey, this is fun!

Edited June 8, 2016 by jimbo92107

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

That draft pick was 15 years ago. The big contract was handed out six years ago, to a guy that should have moved off catcher a year or two later.

Point is, the Twins haven't failed to make that investment. They invented that investment.

[tobi0040]

Point is, the Twins haven't failed to make that investment. They invented that investment.

Okay. Let me re-phrase. The Twins have not made an investment in the catcher position in 6 years. That guy was only going to catch another few years. They did not plan for the 2013+ period. I am guessing we have been bottom three in the league at the position and the outlook is about the same for the foreseeable future. So we have at least a 2013-2018 gap where we have punted the position, not had a plan, and not made an investment.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Okay. Let me re-phrase. The Twins have not made an investment in the catcher position in 6 years. That guy was only going to catch another few years. They did not plan for the 2013+ period. I am guessing we have been bottom three in the league at the position and the outlook is about the same for the foreseeable future. So we have at least a 2013-2018 gap where we have punted the position, not had a plan, and not made an investment.

Word up. 

[Taildragger8791]

Why does everyone keep saying to dump Santana? He's one of the few SP above AA with a shot at being decent. You still need to fill out a rotation this year and next and there aren't 5 solid SP behind him. Without Nolasco/Santana/Hughes you'd have Gibson, Berrios, and Duffey as the only decent starting pitchers for next year. Possibly May on the unlikely chance he jumps back to starting. I don't consider Dean a real prospect and the rest of the names are pure lottery tickets. If the Twins went into the season with no reliable #4 and #5 starter, an no options for fallback or injury replacements, it would be absolute mayhem again. Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay aren't going to be ready for the start of the season and may not even be ready by midseason. I'm not clearing out the major league roster for them this early.

[alarp33]

I agree.  I see no real benefit to trading Santana or Gibson, the other SP name lots of people around here want to deal.  Those are two guys who's value to the Twins deservedly so, is quite a bit higher than value to most teams around the leauge. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's usually how young players first get playing time. Eddie Rosario was an injury replacement last year, and since he played well, he stayed. Hopefully we see Buxton and Kepler show that they deserve to stay up the rest of the year this year too.

Rosario actually replaced another fairly young player in Arcia, who is also getting replaced by Kepler right now.  And Grossman replaced Rosario.  No veteran has been usurped in this series of moves.

 

Polanco played pretty well in limited duty, better than multiple incumbents, but got shipped out again.

 

Trevor May did just fine as a starter too, but apparently he's behind Pat Dean on the SP depth chart now.