Should Butera start at Catcher?

[Boom Boom]

Well, for one thing, those numbers for each of Mauer, Doumit, and Butera are skewed because they're not catching the same pitchers.

 

Butera's caught every game Liriano has started since he was promoted from the bullpen. I think Gardy keeps putting Butera behind the plate for Liriano's starts as one of those "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" things.

 

I think Butera has about as much to do with Liriano's recent success as the "M" logo caps do.

[Boom Boom]

Drew Butera hasn't caught Nick Blackburn once this season. That may result in some unfair catcher ERA numbers for Doumit and Mauer.

[Squirrel]

Drew Butera caught lots of games last season and the Twins were 29th in ERA.

Maybe if you say this enough times people will actually read it and understand it. Ever feel like you are beating a dead horse?

[Mike Sixel]

Because 67 games is not enough of a sample size to draw accurate conclusions using statistical analysis. Because you are ignoring all the data that does not support your conclusions (years of data prior to those 67 games). Because you are drawing causal relationships, where there is no evidence of causation, making perhaps the most common logical fallacy in existence.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Well, for one thing, those numbers for each of Mauer, Doumit, and Butera are skewed because they're not catching the same pitchers.

 

Butera's caught every game Liriano has started since he was promoted from the bullpen. I think Gardy keeps putting Butera behind the plate for Liriano's starts as one of those "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" things.

 

I think Butera has about as much to do with Liriano's recent success as the "M" logo caps do.

If you noticed on page 1, I gave Butera's numbers minus Liriano. Still ridiculously better than Mauer/Doumit. I also provided the numbers for Diamond and Pavano, who are the only pitchers all 3 guys have caught. While Pavano's numbers are largely a wash. Diamond's are much better with Butera, especially versus Mauer. This also doesn't address the question of why not let Butera catch some more of these guys to find out? What if Blackburn can be a serviceable starter when pitching to Butera? There's only one way to find out...

[snepp]

Drew Butera hasn't caught Nick Blackburn once this season. That may result in some unfair catcher ERA numbers for Doumit and Mauer.

Nonsense, Blacksie would have had a sub-4 era all season if Butera had been catching him. Butera is also fully responsible for Liriano throwing harder, more accurately, and with a monster slider. He even single-handedly willed Deduno into having a decent start, which couldn't have happened with anyone else behind the plate.

[Boom Boom]

If you noticed on page 1' date=' I gave Butera's numbers minus Liriano. Still ridiculously better than Mauer/Doumit. I also provided the numbers for Diamond and Pavano, who are the only pitchers all 3 guys have caught. While Pavano's numbers are largely a wash. Diamond's are much better with Butera, especially versus Mauer. This also doesn't address the question of why not let Butera catch some more of these guys to find out? [b'] What if Blackburn can be a serviceable starter when pitching to Butera?[/b] There's only one way to find out...

I'm not convinced that, even if Butera turned Blackburn into a serviceable starter, that the difference would offset the offensive hit the lineup would take from removing either Mauer or Doumit and inserting Drew.

 

I get what you're saying, and I admit that Butera is a better defensive catcher than Mauer and a much better catcher than Doumit. I do think there is some truth to catchers' ERA, but I don't think it's nearly as big a difference as the numbers you've presented would posit to suggest.

[Mr. Ed]

When the Twins trade Liriano and he does well for someone else, am sure the FSN broadcasters will continue to credit Drew for Liriano's level of success as well.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Because 67 games is not enough of a sample size to draw accurate conclusions using statistical analysis. Because you are ignoring all the data that does not support your conclusions (years of data prior to those 67 games). Because you are drawing causal relationships, where there is no evidence of causation, making perhaps the most common logical fallacy in existence.

So obviously you skipped over my post where I asked when coincidence becomes causation. So obviosuly you've missed all my points where I'm asking why not expand the sample size. So obviosuly you didn't notice where I said this was only in the context of this year. So obviously you believe players can't improve or worsen from the year prior--after all, it's not like Andrew McCutcheon, MVP candidate, hit .259 last year. Jose Reyes clearly is the best-hitting shortstop in either league, since he was last year. Melky Cabrera's ceiling is obviously a guy who's going to hit around .270/.320/.370 with single digit homers, since those are his approximate numbers over FIVE years.

 

I'm not saying any of those three instances mean Butera is suddenly the greatest catcher to pitch to ever. I'm just saying there is an incredible statistical anomaly that has now hit a level where it moves beyond short-lived blip on the radar, and becomes, let's see if there's anything to this.

 

Oh and by the way, I used 95 games, or about 60% of the season. If 60% of something is not a large enough sample size to draw a conclusion, why is 40% of something enough to wreck a conclusion?

[LaBombo]

No' date=' it's not worth finding out. QUOTE']

 

Would you care to elaborate on why not? You seem to disregard the possibility that players get better, relationships between players become better, and numbers can improve? What if Frankie has more confidence with Butera behind the plate, so he throws harder? What if Butera has spent hours upon hours breaking Frankie down before and after games, and did find a mechanical hitch, and that discovery fostered this confidence? I'm not saying either of those things are true, I'm just saying they very well could be.

 

I state it again. This Twins season is going nowhere. Can anyone give me a reason other than "Butera isn't good", or "Butera was bad in the past" as to why this isn't worth looking into. If we went only off of prior years results, Danny Valencia would be starting at 3B, not Trevor Plouffe. Michael Cuddyer would be in right field instead of Josh Willingham in left. At some point, ESPECIALLY if you're just playing out the string, find out which players have gained in value, and which have not.

 

How about a breakdown of the quality of lineups that Butera's pitchers have faced? He seems to get the 'day game after night game' starts fairly often, along with the other scrubs of both the Twins and their opponents. Maybe it's just me.

 

As for being useful as Liriano's personal catcher, well, the idea that Liriano needs a replacement-level catcher to be effective sounds like another reason to trade Liriano, not elevate Butera to near-everyday status.

 

That leaves the 10 starts with non-Liriano pitchers. Given that CERA is already suspect at best for career-sized samples, those 10 starts represent no discernible analytical value to me.

 

I agree with you the Twins are out of it. I even agree with you that Butera should catch more, though not for the reason you suggest, and not nearly to the same extent. I'd just like to see Butera out there a little more just to save wear and tear on Mauer and even Doumit.

 

That being said, the idea that there's no risk to elevating Butera to near-regular status isn't really true. The Twins still need to put butts in the seats, and it's not going well. Selling already disenchanted fans on Butera catching more than Mauer based on what's likely no more than a statistical anomaly would be an ugly PR undertaking.

 

But let's say you throw attendance caution to the winds, keep running Butera out there the rest of the season, and get similar non-Liriano numbers. Now you're going to dump Morneau, convert an already-expensive Mauer to a much less valuable position , and insert a replacement-level bat into the starting lineup based on what's still a microscopic sample size of one of the weakest predictive stats in baseball? Pass.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm not convinced that, even if Butera turned Blackburn into a serviceable starter, that the difference would offset the offensive hit the lineup would take from removing either Mauer or Doumit and inserting Drew.

 

I get what you're saying, and I admit that Butera is a better defensive catcher than Mauer and a much better catcher than Doumit. I do think there is some truth to catchers' ERA, but I don't think it's nearly as big a difference as the numbers you've presented would posit to suggest.

Actually, in looking at the numbers, the Twins offense is most inept when Doumit catches (I was incorrect in one calculation I made earlier, concerning the average number of runs the Twins offense puts up when Doumit catches, which I have since corrected, in addition to verifying all other calculations). The Twins score, on average, 5 runs per game with Mauer catching. They drop a whole run, to 4, when Butera catches. They drop another half run, to 3.5, when Doumit catches.

 

I also don't see any reason why the Twins can't trade Morneau for prospects and to open up spending space for next year, then switch Doumit, Mauer and Willingham between 1B, LF and DH. With Mauer, and once in a while Doumit catching, you could even play Parmelee some more, instead of letting him rot on the bench.

[LaBombo]

Also, from an Occam's Razor angle, what's more likely...

 

that Butera's defensive value is being inflated by a tiny sample of a shaky stat or two...

 

or that he's found a new ability to handle pitchers that produces overwhelming, repeatable results, but he's refusing to even explain the breakthrough, let alone teach the new ability set to Mauer and Doumit, all with the apparent total disregard of on- and off-field management?

[Boom Boom]

I was partially agreeing with you before, Cap'n, but "average runs scored based on whom the starting catcher was", or ARSBOWTSCW, is a new statistic to me that needs more research before I would consider such numbers to be meaningful.

[Mike Sixel]

Great use of Occam's razor, awesome.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Drew Butera caught lots of games last season and the Twins were 29th in ERA.

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

[rickyhawaii]

With Butera in the line up it would be too many easy outs and rally killings. I'd rather see Chris Hermann as third catcher - utility, over Butera.

[DaveW]

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

And yet some people choose to ignore it time and time again. It's like a parent telling his child to clean his room 4 times.

[Squirrel]

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

Maybe he'll keep using it until some of you get it.

[CDog]

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

If you're setting the line at 4, I'm taking the over. For sure.

[scottz]

Starting Catcher W-L

2010

Mauer - 66-41 (.617)

Butera - 22-24 (.478)

Other* - 7-7 (.500)

 

2011

Mauer - 21-25 (.457)

Butera - 30-61 (.330)

Other* - 18-32 (.360)

 

2012

Mauer - 17-25 (.405)

Butera - 16-9 (.640)

Other* - 12-21 (.364)

 

2010-2012

Mauer - 104-91 (.533)

Butera - 68-94 (.420)

Other* - 37-60 (.381)

 

* Doumit, Rivera, Holm, Morales, or Ramos

 

Small sample size likely to blame for Butera's dominance this year, especially when you consider that the Twins are playing better recently than earlier in the year. For example, if you look at the last 19 games caught by any of these 3 categories, Mauer is 10-9, Doumit is 10-9, Butera is 12-7. Still small samples, but less Butera dominance. Factor in that Butera has more frequently caught our "better" pitchers than the others would slant the records to be in his favor. I'll take the long term average and leave Mauer behind the plate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How many times have you used this quote in your arguments against Butera. I swear I've seen it at least 4 times.

I'm going to keep using it until people start reading it and comprehending what it means (basically, that catchers only have a marginal impact on how a pitcher performs).

[Pius Jefferson]

Yes, he isn't even capable of whispering sweet nothings into Frankie's ear.

He's also would like to go back in time and play with Ty Cobb. No wonder he can't catch Liriano or Deduno like Butera.

[GCTF]

Will Doumit catch Blackburn's next start? He seemed to get throught to him as one facial-haired player to another.

 

All the Twins need to do is find some tall, clean shaven, soft spoken starters for Joe to handle.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm just saying there is an incredible statistical anomaly that has now hit a level where it moves beyond short-lived blip on the radar, and becomes, let's see if there's anything to this.

 

 

You might have a statistical anomoly, except that you really are only dealing with 10 starts, but I'm not sure that the word incredible should be attached to this at all. He has 2 years worth of data that you have repeatedly ignored. He's had the luxury of catching Liriano during his resurgence, which might be on Drew, accept for the small problem that Liriano has had long stretches of dominance not unlike this stretch... and not surprisngly, the big corresponding peripheral changes when Liriano dominates is increased velocity on the FB and decreased walks.

 

No reasonable person would argue that Drew can somehow coax and extra 3-4 MPH on Liriano's fastball, and no reasonable person should be suggesting that Drew is the reason Liriano finds the plate more consistently... It's Liriano's job to hit the target that the catcher sets... I'm fairly certain the catcher has little if any control over the pitcher's ability to hit the catcher.

 

Drew caught a ridiculous number of games last season. If he was some magic worker, than the Twins wouldnt' have had the second worst record in baseball... their pitchers would have kept them in every game, and while the offense was bad,it wouldn't have been 99 losses bad.

[Highabove]

There have been some bad threads put up lately coupled with ridiculous comments.

Maybe things will improve once the trade deadline passes.

[ashbury]

Actually' date=' in looking at the numbers, the Twins offense is most inept when Doumit catches (I was incorrect in one calculation I made earlier, concerning the average number of runs the Twins offense puts up when Doumit catches, which I have since corrected, in addition to verifying all other calculations). The Twins score, on average, 5 runs per game with Mauer catching. They drop a whole run, to 4, when Butera catches. They drop another half run, to 3.5, when Doumit catches.[/quote']

 

Put a measurably better hitter in the lineup and fewer runs score: doesn't this little side-investigation cause one to reflect on the merit of this style of analysis? Guess not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

wonder what tonights line just did to that SSS.

[jm3319]

"insert token comment about blaming this loss on Butera since he (Butera) clearly deserves all the credit for Liriano's recent success..." oh boy 2.2 IP 7ER and 3HR...not what the doctor ordered for the Twins tonight...

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

http://i.imgur.com/bMtqO.jpg

[CDog]

Will Doumit catch Blackburn's next start? He seemed to get throught to him as one facial-haired player to another.

 

All the Twins need to do is find some tall, clean shaven, soft spoken starters for Joe to handle.

Blackburn was shaved for his latest start. But maybe he felt like he wasn't? "Now" things are getting ridiculous.